创始人的危机管理指南 | Uri Levine(Waze联合创始人,连续创业者(serial entrepreneur))
A founder’s guide to crisis management | Uri Levine (Waze co-founder, serial entrepreneur)
Guest Intro and the Crisis Topic
Lenny Rachitsky: Let’s talk about crisis. I think it might be helpful to do a quick taxonomy of the types of crisis founders face.
Uri Levine: So two, abstractly, two types of crisis. One is I would call that a cash crisis. All of a sudden, your cash program or plan is being jeopardized, losing a customer, disappearing investor. And the other one is lose of product market fit. When product market fit disappear, you actually need to go back to square one. Then you basically say everything that I know so far is irrelevant anymore.
Why Add a Crisis Management Chapter
Lenny Rachitsky: You also talk along these lines of never give up in a crisis and throughout your journey.
Uri Levine: Always keep on looking for ways to make it work. Never give up is the most important behavior of successful CEOs of startup. The second one, by the way, is making decisions with conviction. If you don’t make them with conviction, then the team is not going to follow. If the team is not going to follow, then you are not going to be successful.
Real-World Crisis Case Studies
Lenny Rachitsky: The core part of your advice on crisis, it’s always the founders fault if things don’t work out.
The Nature and Types of Crises
Uri Levine: At the end of the day, you cannot rely on someone else, you have only one company, you need to make sure that this company is successful. When you assume responsibility, you’re basically saying, “You know what, I control my own destiny.”
Avoiding Regulatory Agencies
Lenny Rachitsky: Any advice for how to avoid falling into a crisis as a founder?
Managing Crises from Competitors
Uri Levine: Number one answer is no, don’t worry, you will face crisis.
Categorizing Crises Faced by Founders
Lenny Rachitsky: Today, my guest is Uri Levine. Uri is the co-founder of Waze, along with nine other companies. He’s sold two companies for over a billion dollars, he’s been on 20 different startup boards, has been an advisor to over 50 different startups. And even more impressively, this is his second time on the podcast.
In our first conversation, we walked through the biggest lessons that he’s learned over the course of working with all of these different startups that he chronicled in his beloved book, Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution. In this conversation, we go deep on one very specific topic, crisis. As Uri shares in his book, building a startup is a journey from one crisis to the next. And my goal with this conversation is to give you tools to handle the next crisis and the next crisis and the next crisis that you face as a founder. This topic is so important that Uri decided to update and re-release his book with a whole new chapter dedicated to managing crisis. And this new edition is actually going to launch right around the time this episode launches.
If you enjoy this podcast, don’t forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube, it’s the best way to avoid missing future episodes and it helps the podcast tremendously. With that, I bring you Uri Levine.
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Uri, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.
The Pandemic Ski Business Crisis
Uri Levine: Thank you. I’m really happy to be here.
Lenny Rachitsky: I should have said welcome back to the podcast, this is your second time here, which is a pretty rare feat. And the reason that you’re back is, the first time we chatted in depth about your amazing book. I have it right here, Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution. And you decided to re-release the book recently with a new chapter about something that every single founder is going to go through. You actually have this quote I’ll read that I think is a good summary of why this is so important. “That building a startup is a journey from one crisis to the next.” Let me just start with this question of why did you decide to add this chapter, why is it so important to update your book?
Coping Strategies and Turning Points
Uri Levine: End of the day, recent years have demonstrated major significant crisises throughout the world, from Covid to interest rate, to inflation, to wars. And then I realized that wait a minute, this is something that I haven’t spoke about during my first book and it’s time to write a new edition to that or a new chapter that will be added into the new release. And so this is about crisis. And in addition, my publisher told me that, “Oh, you should have a paperback, it’s going to sell more and more people are going to read it because it’s easier to read.” So I do have the new edition already.
Preparation Versus Luck
Lenny Rachitsky: There is?
Uri Levine: It will be published in about a month and it does include a new chapter. And it’s a paperback.
The Absolute Responsibility of Founders
Lenny Rachitsky: I love that you’re solving the jobs to be done, make it easier to read, we’ll make it paperback. I also, as you described it, it made me realize the reason your book is so great is it’s basically a step-by-step guide of all the things you need to know about building a successful company. And what it feels like is you just realize, oh, I forgot this step that every founder goes through, which is crisis.
Uri Levine: Multiple crisis.
Never Give Up During a Crisis
Lenny Rachitsky: Multiple crisis, we’ll get into that. Also, I love that you can actually update a book. Usually people are like, “Oh, books, done.” You move on. I love that you have the opportunity actually to update a book. That’s inspiring.
Uri Levine: I’m already thinking of the next one.
Team Retention During a Crisis
Lenny Rachitsky: The next book or the next update to the book?
The Boundaries and Details of Transparency
Uri Levine: Not sure yet, not sure. Look, at the end of the day, there is a reason for me to write the book. I wrote the book in order to make a bigger impact. I’m an entrepreneur and everyone knows that, so I built Waze and Moovit and dozens of other startups, but I’m also a teacher. So I feel equally rewarded when I build something myself or I guide someone to build it. And the book is fulfilling my destiny as a teacher, sharing my know-how with entrepreneurs, with business people, with pretty much everyone to help them to become more successful.
So the realization that what I really want is people to take out of the book is something that will increase their likelihood of being successful. And the next book is going to be pretty much the same, with the same philosophy of wait a minute, if I can make a bigger impact, I would like to make a bigger impact.
Lenny Rachitsky: It’s a beautiful mission. I think we’re going to do that. Let’s talk about crisis. Maybe to make this very real and visceral for people to get a sense of, you hear the word crisis, you’re like, oh yeah, sure. Can you maybe share a story of a crisis that you experienced that might be illustrative of the types of crisis that founders face across the many companies you’ve started and advised, what comes to mind?
Calculating Cash Burn and Timing Actions
Uri Levine: Covid was an excellent example. And one of my startups back then, called Order.chat, and actually it was the first AI chat back in 2020. And that was meant to help people to make reservations to restaurants. As simple as, “Oh, I would like to make a reservations for six people for tomorrow night at XYZ restaurant.” And that chat was actually very, very successful in Israel. And the reason is that we actually built an engine that had facing the user with a chat but also facing the restaurant with a chat. So we did not require any integration, we could go online anywhere and actually cover all the restaurants in no time. And that turned out to be pretty successful and then Covid hit. And guess what? All the restaurants were shut down for hosting guests and there were no more reservations for restaurants.
Now we were really good at that, but we did not have enough funding to actually pivot into something completely different. And the result is that we had to shut it down. And still people still ask me what happened to that? What happened to that was Covid.
Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like Covid happened to a lot of companies. And it feels like that’s kind of an impetus to this chapter. I think you even said that, it created so many crisis across so many companies you were involved with, helped you realize a lot of companies and founders are just not prepared.
Cost Cutting and Personnel Decisions
Uri Levine: So by and large I would say end of the day, we look at the global crisises and we say, “Oh, this is going to impact an industry.” But as an entrepreneur, you don’t care about the industry, you care about your own startup, that’s it. And if the rest of the world is suffering from the same problem, doesn’t help you, not even a single bit. So your problem is your problem, that’s it.
And then you need to abstract that and basically realize, okay, wait a minute, I will define a crisis as something that you already had that is significant, disappears. So let’s say that you already have millions of dollars in revenues and all of a sudden your biggest customer decide not to continue and you lose half of your revenues. All of a sudden you basically say, “Wait a minute, I have to adapt, something significant happened.”
And that something significant is that your revenues disappear or maybe your funding disappeared or maybe … So in general, the first type of crisis will be around cash. All of a sudden your cash is not the same as you expected, something happened, maybe funding, maybe revenues, maybe projection, maybe you lost a big customers, a cash crisis. And then you need to adapt.
The second one, which is even more significant, is that you lost product market fit. And that might happen, it might happen because of regulations, because of competition, because of something dramatic happened that there is no more value into your product. And we are going back to basic, product market fit is very simple. That means that you create value to your customers, this is what it is. And you never heard of a company that did not figure out product market fit. They simply died, that’s it.
And by the way, product market fit in general have only one metric, only one metric, retention. Look, it’s really simple, if you create value, they will come back, that’s it. If they are not coming back, that means that you are not creating value. And so in your startup journey, this is going to be the first phase, and it’s going to require a lot of iterations and it’s a journey of failures. So we’re going to try something and it doesn’t work, we’re going to try something else. And we keep on trying until we find one thing that does work.
But once you figure that out, you’re ready to move to the next part of your journey. But what if it’s all disappeared? What if all of a sudden someone changed their regulation? Someone you rely on, a very unique data, that you were able to build and all of a sudden someone create a way to access this data for everyone. What if there is a competitor that makes you irrelevant?
I’m using iPhone, obviously a lot of people using iPhone and I’m using that for a long while. iPhone is born in 2007. Before that we used to have different phones with keypads. And when iPhone was introduced, Microsoft basically say this will never work. They were in a position of a market leader, they own Windows mobile operating system that was running on pretty much all the phones in the world. All the smartphones in the world, from Nokia to Motorola, to Samsung, to pretty much everything. And they look at it and say this will never work. They haven’t realized how impactful it is. So this is a competition coming out to the market with something that is completely different. And not only disrupt the market but actually create crisis for pretty much everyone else.
And the result is that today Microsoft is not a player in the mobile operating system and Nokia disappeared or pretty much disappeared and Motorola disappeared and pretty much everyone that was really significant in this industry, they were not adapted fast enough to the change. And the change was that their product market fit disappeared. Now it’s not that their product all of a sudden become irrelevant, people simply wanted something else.
So when product market fit disappeared, you actually need to go back to square one. And the faster that you realize and you basically say everything that I know so far, everything that I knew so far is irrelevant anymore. Can I restart? Can I go back to square one and restart? Because if you cannot, you will die. You’re following your own solution and you believe that this solution is going to be marketed better than what the market wants. And what the market wants is different.
It can be also a matter of regulation change. One of my startups called Fibo died because of change in regulation. So Fibo was doing tax returns, something that everyone hates, but we have to do that. And when we started we basically say wait a minute, when I speak with people and ask them how is tax returns being done in your country, what I heard was pretty consistent, it’s either complex or expensive or both, that’s it. And I said wait a minute, what if I can simplify that? What if we can make it really, really simple?
And we define simplification by filing in less than five minutes. Whatever you do, if you can do that in less than five minutes, it’s simple enough. And we ended up with building a platform in Israel that people were able to file in less than three minutes. And that was actually pretty amazing. Now the result was that in about … In Israel filing is not mandatory. So we actually enable people that were not filing up until now to file because it’s simple. And we increased the size of the market by 25% over one year.
Managing a Product-Market Fit Crisis
Lenny Rachitsky: Of people filing taxes?
Uri Levine: Yep. Because it was simple. So you go into the platform, you realize that wait a minute, I actually entitled to get a return, so let me file. If I’m not entitled to get a return, then I’m not going to file because it’s not mandatory. And the result is that we increased the load of the taxation system. And all of a sudden the Israeli tax authority didn’t like us anymore and they basically shut us down. So changing the regulation and we lost product market fit overnight. They basically say, “Oh, we are going to shut you down and that’s tomorrow.” And that’s it.
Now we did not have enough run rate to actually … because the company was about break even, so we did not have enough funding to go and try to find something else. And we tried to fight the regulator, but fighting regulator requires a long period of time and a lot of funding and we did not have that.
So regulation might be a reason why you lose product market fit. And you need to go back to square one. And what we decided is that, okay, what I decided on a personal level is that I’m not going deal with the regulation anymore. I don’t want to rely on a regulator to allow me or not allow me to do what I want to do.
By the way, with Waze, in the early days we thought that the business model is going to be selling data to authorities, to municipalities, to maybe public transportation systems and so forth. And we basically say wait a minute, we have the best traffic information in the world, I can go to a municipality and tell them how long does it take to make a left turn in each and every traffic light in the city every day of the week, every hour of the day. And therefore they can recalibrate the traffic control system and enable better utilization of the entire road system. And it turns out that this is really, really, really slow business development process. They didn’t really care. And that was frustrating. Even if you offer that for free they still don’t care. And the result is that we changed the business model and we ended up with advertisement. But the reality is that I don’t like to work with regulators, that is all.
Near-Death Experiences and Persistence
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay. There’s so much here I want to dig into. One is this example, this story about losing product market fit, it reminds me of, I had Drew Houston on the podcast, the founder of Dropbox, and he described a moment where when Apple launched Apple Photos or iCloud, I think it was iCloud, he’s like, “It’s as if there’s this mushroom cloud exploding far in the distance that you don’t hear for a long time and we didn’t necessarily see exactly how much this will have impacted our business.” And I think that’s what happens a lot of cases. You see something happen and you’re like, “No, this is no problem, we’re going to win anyway.” Like Blackberry I think did the same thing with iPhone.
Core Considerations and Steps for Pivoting
Uri Levine: We had the same thing with Waze, because when we started Waze was free and it was the only one that was offering turn-by-turn navigation free. And the reason is that we created our own maps. And then one day in 2010, Google announced their free turn-by-turn navigation. Turns out that they were working for the last two years in building maps of the US. And they enabled that on Google Maps, turn-by-turn navigation with audio guidance to turn right, turn left and so forth.
And two companies were actually shocked, the entire industry, but two companies were impacted. The first one is actually TomTom. TomTom was the provider of the maps for Google to do navigation. And they basically say, “No, we have our own maps, we are going to terminate the contract.” And TomTom said, “Wait a minute, you are paying us $18 million a year and we have five years contract.” And Google say, “Yeah, we will keep on paying you that amount of money that we are committed, but we are not going to use your product anymore.”
And that one was Waze because basically everyone in the industry told us that we are doomed. Our own investors told us that, “Look, if we can sell the company for 30 million today, do it because you are not going to be successful.”
Now obviously we turned the corner and turned out to be very successful. And to that level that eventually Google acquired us. And the reason is that the use case was different. Waze was focusing on the daily commuters. So we wanted people to use our application twice a day, when you go to the office and when you come back home. And Google Maps is something that you are being used not that frequent, you are in general I would say if I ask a hundred people how often they use Waze, they will tell me every day. If I ask them how often they use Google Maps, they will tell me, “When I need it.” So a different use case and obviously different product that is built for the specificity of the use case. So Waze is way simpler and the map looks almost abstractive, they’re not, but looks like abstractive and way less details. And the result is the ability to create something that is simpler and people are using every day.
But when Google announced turn-by-turn navigation, all the investors in the world turn their back on us. And that was 2010. We were looking for new funding. I remember that night, because we were just about to go and meet with all partners meeting at Khosla Ventures. And we had multiple meetings beforehand and that was like, okay, this is the final seal.
And the evening before we had dinner with the partners that was promoting us at Khosla Ventures and he told us, “Look, I have a lot of relationship in the industry, and I spoke with my friends at Google and they told me that they are at least two years away from building their own maps.” And the next morning they simply announced this turn-by-turn navigation. Going to that meeting was a waste of time already. And we had very, very hard time to raise capital because of that.
But eventually we were lucky in the sense that once Google announced their turn-by-turn navigation, turns out that the rest of the industry were took by surprise. And Microsoft decided that wait a minute, we don’t have our own maps, so let’s invest in Waze. So we ended up getting investment from someone that we did not expect.
The Mental Framework for Starting Over
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay. So first of all, you’ve shared all these types of crisis, I think it might be helpful to do a quick taxonomy of the types of crisis founders face. You shared regulation changes, competitors coming at you, investors not wanting to invest.
Controlling Your Own Destiny
Uri Levine: So two types of, abstractly, two types of crisis. One is that I would call that a cash crisis. So all of a sudden your cash program or plan is being jeopardized, for losing a customer, disappearing investor, not meeting your expectation, dramatic price change in the market and so forth. And the other one is lose of product market fit. So all of a sudden whatever you have is irrelevant anymore and you actually need to go back to square one.
For the first type of crisis, if this is a cash crisis, then what you really need to ask yourself, and in any type crisis, first of all is what is actually being impacted? Is that my run rate, is that my product, is that my revenue stream? If I’m still relevant?
With Order.chat, we were irrelevant, that’s it. And so the first thing that you need to do is what is really being impacted? And then the second thing is how long it’s going to last? Is that a temporary thing? Is that forever? Is that the new future? And then you ask yourself, okay, so how much run rate do I have? And you re-plan accordingly.
And I’ll give you some examples, and this is really important, because let’s say that you’re a company that we have $5 million of revenues a year, say 400,000 per month, and your burn rate, your net burn rate is 200,000. So you actually at the end of the year, in order to run for a year, you need about two and a half million dollars to run. If you lose half of the revenues, and you only had two and a half million in the bank, you now have six month to run. So obviously you need to re-adapt.
Now, one of the things that you might say to yourself, “I’m going to remain on the same course and I’m going to deal with the crisis in five month from now.” Or you can basically say, “No, I’m going to change my expense to adjust to the current revenue stream that I have and still have 12 month of run rate.”
Whatever you are going to decide, you are going to decide, you need to decide today, right now. And the reason is very simple, if you want to reduce the burn, the expenses in order to extend the run rate, if you wait two more month, then it’s going to become nearly impossible to do. If you wait six more month, then obviously this is impossible to do. So the longer that you wait, you actually lose options. The only ability to choose is today. This is one of the most challenging part of a crisis. You actually need to make a decision rapidly, like today.
There are few reasons to that. Number one is that if you don’t then you might lose options. Number two, and this is about communicating within the organization that decision. Look, if there is a crisis everyone knows, everyone knows, and you don’t do anything about it, this is not a good practice. Now you might want to decide, no, we’re going to keep on running full steam ahead until we hit the wall because by that we increase the likelihood that we will have enough velocity to bypass the wall. But you need to communicate that with your team because the one that is really suffer is not just you, it’s the entire team. They know that there is a crisis and they want to know that someone that holds the steering wheel is making the decisions. And if you don’t, then guess what? You are then a sinking ship. And what’s going to happen is that the top performing people, they would leave.
The Waze Funding Crisis
Lenny Rachitsky: Let me do a quick summary of what you’ve shared to give people a landscape and then let’s keep going down this route. So there’s basically two types of crisis. And there’s small crisis, I imagine someone’s pissed off at something. These are how you describe major crisis, like existential crisis for your startup. Is that the way to think about it?
Four Dimensions of the Startup Journey
Uri Levine: Right. Because if an A-player leaves, I hate it, but it’s not a crisis.
The Mission of Value Creation
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. Okay, cool. So there’s two, cash crisis, which is either a bunch of revenue disappears or investors bail or don’t want to keep supporting you. Those are the two major buckets. And then there’s product market fit crisis, could be a competitor launches, could be the market changes, things like that.
And within the cash crisis, so say you realize we don’t have as much cash as we planned or need, the three steps you just described, what is really being impacted? Just be really real with what is the impact to our business with this change. How long do we think this cash crisis will last? And how long do we have before we run out of cash essentially?
Uri Levine: Yep. And then you need to decide, and then you need to decide on your action and your new plan and maybe it’s a new strategy. If all of a sudden I would say if this is about product market fit disappeared, then this is a new strategy. And maybe it’s about deciding on extending the run rate or keep on trying or whatever. And this is something that is really interesting.
And we go back to Covid and I look at two of my startups that were in the travel space, one of them is WeSki, and it’s essentially the booking.com of ski vacations. And guess what? Covid started. And there was no more ski trips to Europe. Europe were shut down completely. And all the ski areas were shut down. And you know that I’m an avid skier? For me that was a disaster on a personal level. And eventually by the way, what happened is that I was back in Tel Aviv and I was unable to travel to Europe, and it was only somewhere in 2022 that I was able to travel to the US after vaccination and so forth. And in March, 2022, I actually moved myself to Utah to Salt Lake City and I basically say, “No, I’m going to ski every day that I’m not busy.” And I skied until the end of the season.
So what happened is that Covid started and we realized that we have major problem. And the problem was actually, the first thing that you face is cancellation because all of a sudden out of very few cancellations per day, you ended up with hundreds of cancellations per day because this is it. And after you dealt with that, then the next question that we ask ourselves, okay, so how bad is it, how long it’s going to last?
Now that was supposed to be the first year that we were profitable. So we did not have a lot of cash in the bank because we expected to become profitable this year. And we basically told our ourself, okay, this season is over, next season is not going to happen. We don’t know, but we need to plan for something that is going to last longer than that. And then we basically say, okay, how can we deal with it?
Now, because of WeSki had a lot of strategic investors from the travel industry, in the travel industry, they didn’t really care about WeSki, they care about their own product. If you are a hotel chain, then guess what? You have no travelers. If you’re an airline, guess what? You have no flyers. So anyone in the travel industry suffered from the same problem. And the last thing on earth that they care about is a startup that they invested at. And we realized that, okay, wait a minute, we don’t have enough cash to survive for two seasons without revenues, we need to raise additional capital.
Now, no one, no new investor is going to speak with us, because there’s no ski, so what are you talking about? And we approached the existing investor, and by the way I’m one of them, and we basically say, “Okay, you know what? We need your help.” And everyone told us, “Oh, we are busy. We have other problems to deal with. We have our own problems. I don’t see how is that going to become a good investment and so forth.” And then we basically decided that, okay, wait a minute, we’re going to do a pay to play.
The pay to play is actually sort of forcing new investors at the expense of the existing one. So for example, doing a major down round is sort of pay to play, because if you’re not participate your position in the company is going to be diluted severely. And this is what we decided to do. And that was way more complex, I describe that in the book, way more complex than that because we also had safe instruments that we need to convert before we can actually do something like that. And that was really complex. But we ended up doing that. And today the company is actually very successful.
After Covid, we used the time of Covid to actually improve the product, and as soon as Covid was over then we started to grow rapidly. And the company is profitable, is growing rapidly, is actually providing very, very good service to its customers. To a certain extent I would say we ended up getting out of this crisis successfully.
But if you are in the middle of it and you ask yourself, so what are the chances that we will end up being successful? It looks way smaller. Way smaller. So what happened here is that you realize that, okay, this is not forever, so ski is going to come back but we don’t know how long and therefore we assume that it’s going to be for two seasons until it’s coming back, until 2022. And for that we need to adapt. And so we resized the company to be very, very lean and small and we raise just enough capital to survive those two years. And it ended up to be working very well. But in that sense now, if you would ask me how much luck was in there, luck is always good.
I think that I heard … maybe the most significant real estate developers in New York is Silverstein, and he built the World Trade Center and pretty much everything on the Hudson. And he was asked how he becomes such a successful developer and he said, “Tell you the truth, this is 85% luck and 15% skills and know-how and so forth.” And then he was asked if he can change one thing, what exactly it’s going to be, and he said, “You know what? I’m going to replace the 15% skills with additional 15% luck.” So luck is good. For me luck, I will define luck as opportunity meets readiness. Readiness is up to you; opportunity, not always.
Lenny Rachitsky: Beautifully said. I also agree with luck being so core to most people’s success, most company’s success. But I feel like you’re not giving people enough credit for the hard work that’s also involved in the skills and timing and stuff.
Uri Levine: On the readiness.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s the readiness.
Uri Levine: Of being ready to take advantage of opportunity.
Lenny Rachitsky: That makes sense. Okay, there’s a bunch of stuff I want to dig into here. So one is, and this is something, it’s kind of a tangent, but I think it’s a core part of your advice on crisis, which is that it’s always the founder’s fault if things don’t work out, even if they’re completely out of your control, even if the whole world is changing, it’s still your responsibility and your fault if things don’t work out.
Uri Levine: I wouldn’t say fault, I would say responsibility.
Lenny Rachitsky: Responsibility.
Uri Levine: It might not end up beautiful, in some cases you will die. But at the end of the day you cannot rely on someone else. The fact that the interest rate is going up and the result is that it’s becoming very, very hard to raise capital, the fact that this is industry-wide, so what? You have only one company, you need to make sure that this company is successful. And later on if you fail, then you can rely to then basically say, “This is my excuse, it was not just me.” Not just me is not going to help you to become successful. Just me is going to help you to become successful. When you assume responsibility, then you are able to … you’re basically saying, “You know what? I control my own destiny. I’m going to make the decisions and I control my own destiny.” When this happens, you increase the likelihood of being successful regardless what happen to the rest of the market, and you don’t really care.
Lenny Rachitsky: You also talk along these lines, you have this in your chapter, the section of never give up in a crisis and throughout your journey, this is by far the most important behavior of a startup CEO. Can you just talk about that. Because a lot of times it’s like maybe just stop, maybe just give up. You shared one example where it’s like I don’t want to deal with regulation, other companies, I’m just going to stop. Any advice there, just like, okay, maybe it does make sense just to stop and try to give the investor’s money back versus, yeah, it’s just part of your job not to give up.
Uri Levine: I heard of cases that you basically say our underlining assumptions didn’t work out and our thesis is wrong and therefore we would like to return the investors their money. But entrepreneurs never give up. And this is the most successful behavior of startup CEO, never give up, always keep on looking for ways to make it work. And so it is going to be a journey of failures, and in particular during crisis, but you still need to keep on trying to make it work even though it’s way harder. So never give up is the most important behavior of successful CEO of startup.
The second one, by the way, is making decisions with conviction. This is true for all CEOs or for all companies, not just startups. Now startups, those decisions are probably more frequent and there are a lot of them. But during crisis, all CEOs in the world need to make hard decisions. And you need to make them with conviction because if you don’t make them with conviction, then what will happen is that the team is not going to follow. If the team is not going to follow, then you are not going to be successful.
But never give up. You ask entrepreneurs what will happen and they will basically tell you, “No, we keep on fighting.” One of my other startups in the travel industry called Oversee, back then they called FairFly. And the CEO told me that a cat might have nine souls. We are a cat in that sense, we have nine souls. And the reason that I know that is that we already died nine times or almost died nine times. And so the reality is that you don’t give up, you keep on as long as …
And for a second I would say, look, there are only two reasons that you would like to give up. One is that your mission is wrong. So the problem disappears. And if the problem disappears, your mission is no longer relevant or no longer valid, and you might want to consider to give up.
The other one is that if the team is not right and you are unable to change it. So you brought toxic investors into the board and they started to control the company and obviously in many cases they create more damage than help. And you’re unable to change that anymore, then this is a good reason to give up.
Other than that, never give up. Crisis, not crisis, hardship, no money to pay, no … anything that might happen, anything that you might want to think that might happen will happen.
Lenny Rachitsky: I’m excited to chat with Christina Gilbert, the founder of OneSchema, one of our longtime podcast sponsors. Hi Christina.
Christina Gilbert: Yes, thank you for having me on, Lenny.
Lenny Rachitsky: What is the latest with OneSchema? I know you now work with some of my favorite companies like Ramp, Vanta, Scale and Watershed. I heard that you just launched a new product to help product teams import CSVs from especially tricky systems like ERPs.
Christina Gilbert: Yes, so we just launched OneSchema FileFeeds, which allows you to build an integration with any system in 15 minutes as long as you can export a CSV to an SFTP folder. We see our customers all the time getting stuck with hacks and workarounds. And the product teams that we work with don’t have to turn down prospects because their systems are too hard to integrate with. We allow our customers to offer thousands of integrations without involving their engineering team at all.
Lenny Rachitsky: I can tell you that if my team had to build integrations like this, how nice would it be to be able to take this off my roadmap and instead use something like OneSchema. And not just to build it but also to maintain it forever.
Christina Gilbert: Absolutely, Lenny. We’ve heard so many horror stories of multi-day outages from even just a handful of ad records. We are laser focused on integration reliability to help teams end all of those distractions that come up with integrations. We have a built-in validation layer that stops any bad data from entering your system and OneSchema will notify your team immediately of any data that looks incorrect.
Lenny Rachitsky: I know that importing incorrect data can cause all kinds of pain for your customers and quickly lose their trust. Christina, thank you for joining us. And if you want to learn more, head on over to oneschema.co. That’s oneschema.co.
This idea of never give up, it’s very similar to Dalton Caldwell was on the podcast, he’s a partner at YC, and his whole … he has a famous talk, I guess, at YC, and this was the title of this podcast episode, is just don’t die. That’s his main advice to a startup, just don’t die.
Uri Levine: Never give up.
Lenny Rachitsky: Never give up.
Uri Levine: You might die by the way, you might die, you’ll never give up.
Lenny Rachitsky: Then be reborn. And to be clear, the way a startup dies is they run out of money, is that the simplest way to think about that?
Uri Levine: That’s the only way that they die. By the way, all the companies in the world, they are unable to pay their bills and therefore they die.
Lenny Rachitsky: And many of the tactics you share is just ways to not run out of money. Oftentimes it involves down rounds, creating strange cap structures just to keep it alive, losing equity percentage just to keep it going, that’s part of the job basically, and that’s what you have to deal with.
Uri Levine: In many cases, we had to engage the employees, “No, we don’t have cash.” So what we did is that we diluted all shareholders in order to give employees way more equity. So five times more equity than they had before. And we told them, we need you to trust us and believe in the cause and believe in our ability to recover. And if we don’t, then everyone loses. But if we do, then everyone wins big time. And so this will be a way to actually reengage employees if you are unable to pay them their regular pay. And that was the case in most of the startups that almost run out of cash.
Occasionally you can do, if you will tell me that you’re going to run out of cash next month and therefore you need to shut down, I would like to imagine that you have at least six more month of run rate. You don’t know that, but this is through leadership. So you basically tell your people, “Stay with me, you believed in the cause, you believed in my leadership, I still believe in the cause and I still believe in you. And maybe we are going to have some hard time, maybe we are going to have some month that unable to pay, but eventually we will get out of that.” And in many cases, most people will stay.
Now, leadership, you don’t build leadership during crisis, you might, but in particular you build leadership through transparency, through recognitions of your team, through actually putting your team as the top priority. At the end of the day, you are going to be successful if your team delivers. And in order for the team to deliver, then they need you to trust them to deliver.
Lenny Rachitsky: This is really powerful advice and I want to spend a little more time here, which is keeping people on board and engaged and motivated through a crisis. So this kind of almost script you just shared is really great. Is there anything else that you found useful or any advice you could share for helping a founder keep the team on board, keep people excited, driven? These words you shared I think is a really good example, is there anything else?
Uri Levine: So during crisis, people will appreciate more than anything else transparency. And if you hide information from them, then they would leave, they don’t trust you anymore. But if there is a crisis, and look, if there is a crisis then everyone knows that there is a crisis, it’s not surprising for anyone. And this is where they expect your leadership the most. This is where they expect you to be there for them. And tell them that this is what we’re going to do. And if ABC happens, then we will be successful. And if it’s not, then we will die. And I want you to believe that we can deliver A, B and C, and I want you to stay here for that part of the journey. And this is really, really dramatic, this is perhaps the most important part. Look, during crisis, the team is the one that is going to take you out of the crisis, and you need them more than ever. And guess what? They need you.
Lenny Rachitsky: When you talk about being transparent and open about everything, what’s an example of just how far you recommend people go? Because you could just be like, here’s all of our data and metrics and numbers, here’s what our investors are emailing me. How real do you recommend people get? I know it’s hard to just summarize in a couple sentences, but what’s a good way to illustrate that?
Uri Levine: So number one, don’t sugarcoat. So you basically you don’t need to share all the feedbacks from all the investors. You can tell them, “Look, I met dozens of investors in the last couple of weeks and they’re all saying no.” Or we had a signed term sheet and the investor disappeared. Okay, that’s fine. It is what it is. Look, the fact that it’s ugly, if you don’t tell that it’s ugly, it’s still ugly.
And so I would share the essence. And if we have metrics, then what I would like to do is believe that everyone is aware of the metrics, of the key metrics of the company. This is something that in general I would say, “Oh, in the lobby of the office, we should have the key metrics displayed for everyone to understand this is what we stand for, this is how well we are executing anyhow.” And so when they will see the numbers drop, they know that the numbers drop. And this is something that I will in general I would say, look, key metrics, they should be shared anyhow. And so in particular during crisis, we should keep on sharing them. Definitely not hiding information. So if you have a major customer leave or investor disappear or we are unable to sign a term sheet. And so this is the highlight, this is the major issue. And the details themselves, it’s less critical. Now if people ask, then answer. If someone ask, “Okay, so how many investors have you met?” I’d say no, then start counting, 37, be specific.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s a great answer. I want to come back to something you said that I think is so important but so hard, which is to act fast. If I was a founder, something changes in the market, it’s easy to say, “Okay, you need to cut burn, you need go raise money, down round.” It’s so hard to do, to lay people off, to do all these challenging things for your company. Can you again just help people understand why it’s so important to act fast? You talked about optionality goes away. Just like what actually happens there if you don’t?
Uri Levine: So I’ll give you an example. So let’s say that you are almost run out of cash and you believe that you’re going to raise capital in the next two month. And if not, then you run out of cash. One of the things that you might want to do is extend the run rate. One other thing that you might want to do is actually tell the people that we will be running out of cash in two month. And number one, I want you to help me even if we run out of cash because there are good chances that we eventually will be able to raise capital and recover that. And number two, in order to get your support and belief in the company I am going to offer you more equity. So, the more equity is something that I will do twice, once today, once you realize that this is going to be challenging, and then again if we need to ask people to reduce their salary or do something dramatic around that.
And the first one is actually preventive action. So you share the know-how, you share the challenges that we are going to face. And you demonstrate generosity not out of you have to, but you demonstrate that. And then you essentially dramatically increase their loyalty and their commitment. And when you will need them, they will be there. So this is one example.
The other example is about calculating end of cash. And this is really, really important. So let’s say that you have run rate of X month, six month. If you reduce burn by 50% today, then you simply increase your run rate to a year. If you don’t do it today and you wait three more month, then you only can do that for the … so the first three month you burn the same way that you did up until now, and now you reduce that to half, so you have six more month, total of nine month. If you decided today that you need 12 month, and you don’t act today, you will never have 12 month.
Now, is that the only way to do that? No, it’s not the only way, but it’s one of the ways that by the way most companies will do. So they will reduce burn rate today in order to extend the run rate. Is that going to be more helpful? Don’t know. Really depending on the case.
If you had asked me if you reduce the burn rate, increase the run rate, so now you have 12 month to raise new capital, is that going to have higher likelihood of remaining with the current plan and growth and raise capital within six month? I don’t know that. But this is exactly the decision that you need to make.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s a really great way of putting it. Just the math means the leverage you have now to extend runway is so much higher the sooner you make the decision. And the key, just going back to your algorithm of deciding if we need to act in this way quickly, is first think about what’s being impacted, then how long is this impact going to last, and then how long do I have before you run out of money. And those questions is your advice for deciding, do we let people go now, do we raise money now.
Uri Levine: There is always, by the way, there is always alternative for let people go. In general, I would say letting people go is probably better than reducing salary for everyone. But let’s say that you need cost reduction of 30%. One of the options is let 30% of the people go. Another option is actually reduce salary by 30% for everyone. And it’s going to have the same impact. Not exactly, the same impact on the balance sheet and on the P&L, but not necessarily on the organization. If the organization feels that they are committed to each other, they will prefer the second way. If this is more of individuals, then obviously they will prefer the first way.
Is there a different way? What about if management gives up on their salary? That might make the same impact. And definitely demonstration of leadership. And by the way, increasing the commitment of the rest of the organization.
So in that sense, I would say there are multiple ways of reducing the cost. But in general, this is always about impacting people. If you look at the startup and you look at the budget, 70% of the budget is people, maybe 75% of the budget is people. Everything else is nickels and dimes. If you’re going to tell me, “Oh no, we are going to start the supply of coffee to the office and this is how we are going to reduce cost.” No, this is how you create dissatisfaction with the team and you would reduce costs because some people would leave because of that, not because of lack of coffee, but because of inability to determine and to make hard decisions. So end of the day, if you need to reduce costs that means people.
Lenny Rachitsky: That was really good advice and really good set of options to consider versus laying people off. So most of what we’ve been talking about right now has been the cash crisis route. We’ve spent a little time on the product market fit crisis route. But I want to spend a little more time there. So for the cash crisis route, you have these kind of three questions and then it’s like, cool, this will tell you how quickly to act and how severely to make cuts. In the product market fit route, is it essentially if you’ve lost product market fit, it’s to pivot, is that basically the question? And then it’s a question of where to pivot and what to do?
Uri Levine: So the first question is, am I still relevant? And probably the answer is no. And then the next question that you basically say, “Okay, do I want to pivot?” And for that I will say, “If I would start today, is this is what I’m going to do?” And if the answer is yes, then do it.
Now in many cases you say, “Oh, wait a minute, I already have the organization and I already have money in the bank and this is what I’m going to do instead.” I wouldn’t necessarily do that. The way that I would look at it is different. Because the other alternative is basically say, “Wait a minute, all of my underlining assumptions have gone, they are wrong.” I lost product market fit. The value proposition that I had is wrong or is no longer valid or no longer relevant. And therefore I need to start from scratch. Do I really have the assets to become successful on the new path?
And the assets could be technology that you already developed, could be the team that you already built, could be the know-how that you have in that specific market that gives you a significant advantage. And if any of those is really, really significant, then it’s possible that you want to pivot. Pivot basically say major fuck up, all of our underlining assumptions have gone.
And because everything else, if it’s not, then that’s part of the journey of failure. If you’ll tell me, “Oh, we tried this product or we tried this feature and didn’t work,” then this journey of fail. This is going to be your journey.
But once you figure out product market fit, if it disappears, then pivot is one option, shutting down is another option. And for shutting down, there are two things that you need to ask yourself. Do I have the energy to keep on going? Maybe you basically say, “I spent the last seven years trying to do that and now it’s gone and you know what? I need some time off.”
And the other one is that do I really have the assets to become dramatically successful? Pontera is one of my startups that I started back in 2012. And back then we called that FeeX. And we were dealing with financial fees in Israel and we were actually pretty successful. And then we decided, okay, wait a minute, Israel is a small market, let’s move to the US. And we moved to the US. And one day the CEO came to me and said, “Look, we need to focus, I cannot do both, so we need to pivot.” And we stopped the Israeli operation completely in order to focus all of our effort on the US operation. And then we realized that the nature of the beast is different and therefore we need to re-look for product market fit. And eventually we found that with the regulations of the Obama administration, and that was our product back in 2016 or 17.
And then the administration have changed and now it’s going to change again. And they changed the regulation. And overnight we figured out that … And we were actually on being a successful path. And we had to reinvent ourself. Now, what we basically said is, “Look, we have the energy to keep on going, we have something, a thesis that we believe might be relevant for us. We have the technology that can serve the thesis and we have enough cash to try it out.” And we went back to the board and we offered them two options. Number one, we give you your money back. And number two, this is what we’re going to try.
And the interesting part is that investors don’t want their money back. They did not invest in order to have their money back, they invest in order to make a significant impact. And obviously they don’t want to go back to their investors and tell them, guess what? And so we had all the support to keep trying something else. And since 2018, we are actually being pretty successful on this path. And all of a sudden, company is 12 years old, and we pivoted twice. And now we are end of the day helping Americans to retire richer. Helping financial advisors to support you on your 401k plans, on retirement saving plans. And the result is pretty significant. So this company is on a path of being successful, but we almost died twice.
And look, all the CEOs in the world, if you would ask them, have you nearly died already? And they will tell you yes. And then the next question would be how many times? And they will tell you multiple times. And if they’re not, that means that they’re simply too early on their journey.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s such an important point. It came up, I just had Toby from Shopify on the podcast, and he said exactly the same thing. That just like the number of times Shopify almost died, people have no idea. It’s important to know, that’s very common.
Uri Levine: Yeah. And I’m a good friend with Harley Finkelstein, the president of Shopify, and he told … we exchanged horror stories about nearly dying. And we are still here.
Lenny Rachitsky: Just never give up. To double down on this pivot point real quick. So the things you should look at to help you decide if a pivot is a good idea, you shared, you have some tech that might be helpful in this new direction, you have a team that’s really well suited to this new idea or you have some knowledge. Is there anything else, just like what’s that list of things you should look at to see, to come up with ideas/decide this is a good idea for us to pursue?
Uri Levine: So going back to basic, but now you are already running, so you probably have already validated the problem or the value proposition. About pivoting, so when you start you think that, okay, I have this brilliant idea. And what I really encourage people is first of all, go and validate the problem, speak with people, understand their perception of the problem. And only then start to think about the solution. Now, this is still not the case in most startups. And this is fall in love with the problem, not the solution. And for a few reasons, and maybe number one reason is, look, entrepreneurship journey is about creating value. Simplest way to create value, seel a product, that’s it, simplest way. And I like simple.
But then in addition, when you focus on the problem, then the problem is going to serve as the north star of your journey. And when you have a north star, you’re going to make less deviation from the course and increase the likelihood of being successful. But by and large, your story is going to be way more compelling. If we will be here in 2007, and I will tell you that I’m going to build an AI crowdsourced based navigation system, you’re going to say, “Oh yeah, very interesting,” But you don’t care. If I will tell you I’m going to help you to avoid traffic jams, then you do care. When your customer care, they want you to be successful. And when they want you to be successful, they are going to help you to become successful.
And so this is going back into pivoting the same way, first of all, validate what’s your value proposition, what’s the problem you’re going to solve. Now, in most cases you already validated that because you in the market for some years and you had dialogues with customers and you already realized that. And maybe you already told yourself, you know what? In my next startup this is what I’m going to do. And so it’s possible that you already validated. And if you haven’t, then this is exactly the time to revalidate the value proposition. So this is the first thing that you need to do.
And then the second thing that you want to do is ask yourself, do I really have a significant advantage here? Do I really have the team, the technology, the know-how to make a leap from here and really lead the market?
And then the other part of it is, okay, do I have the energy and the passion to go and do it all over again? Because this is going back to square one, trying to figure out product market fit and then figuring out business model and then figuring out growth and so forth. So the entire journey from scratch. And if you answer yes to all of those, so you have the very significant value proposition and you think that you have something that is going to accelerate you dramatically because of the know-how, the technology, the team, then the next thing that you’re going to do is validate it with the team.
In your underlining assumptions the team is going to continue. Maybe, maybe not. This is exactly the time that you would like to validate that. And the way that you’re going to validate that is you basically say to them, “Guess what? We are fucked. Our underlining assumptions are no longer valid. And this is our new opportunity and we can go this path or we can die.” And let’s see what people, if they believe in the new path, then this is a good idea.
In many cases, by the way, it’s possible that the new path will come from them. They’re the one that are closer to the customers, they’re the one that are closer to the technology. They’re the one that are probably know better than you if this new path is actually valid or not. And if this is the case, then you go and do it.
The last one that you want to … Look, even if you don’t have the money for it, let’s say that you don’t have plenty of cash in the bank, go back to the investors and go back to raise capital because now you actually have a very significant advantage. You already have a technology, you already have a team, you already have the know-how, you are already second time entrepreneur because pivot is like restarting from scratch or you are already multiple times entrepreneur, so you are way more attractive today than when you were a few years back. And so go back to existing investors and new investors and raise more capital for this new journey.
Lenny Rachitsky: I like this algorithm. I was writing it down as you’re talking. So basically when you’re deciding to pivot, looking for opportunities to pivot, step one is find a problem, validate there’s a problem that exists. Step two is figure out if you have the tech, team or know-how that gives you an advantage to win at solving this problem. Then ask yourself, do you have the passion and energy to be spending your life and the many number of years attacking this problem? Then validate your team, wants to also go after this problem. And then check with your investors and try to get money to fund you going after this problem.
Uri Levine: Yep.
Lenny Rachitsky: Awesome.
Uri Levine: And I like this order now. Some people will tell you, “Oh, my order is different.” And I’m not saying if this is the right thing or the wrong thing, but I think that … One of the reason that I say this is the order is, look, when you validate the problem and the value proposition, even if you don’t have the passion, if it’s been validated, your passion will be built up. Because then you speak with potential customers and you tell them, “This is what I’m thinking of doing and this is how it’s going to help you.” They will say, “Yes, I need that. Can you do it tomorrow?” Then all of a sudden you get excited about it.
And usually when I speak about consumers then I tell people, look, when you go and speak about the problem, if the answer that you are going to get is, “Oh, I know someone that had this problem,” don’t follow this path. If they will tell you, “No, no, no, no, no, this is not the problem, the problem is,” and they will give you their version of the problem, this is where you want to follow that. To a certain point, if you speak with enough people, you would have the sense that you are being sent on a mission. And this is where your passion is going to go through the roof. And so don’t start with the passion, let the passion be built.
Lenny Rachitsky: I totally feel that. I have friends who started this company Zip, which is a procurement, a really good procurement platform. And I don’t know if they were growing up wanting to be building a business that helps procurement experiences be better. And they pivoted six times before they picked this idea. But through that, I think found how big of a deal this was and how much happier people can be in their day to day with a better product and got excited about it. And now that’s what they’re building.
Uri Levine: The best thing happen when you try to validate a problem is that you speak with someone and they will tell you in a very strong emotional word, “I hate that,” or something like that. Yeah, this is exactly what you’re looking for, you’re looking for something that people will engage emotionally and with strong emotions.
Lenny Rachitsky: Someone once described it as you want to look for their pupils to dilate when you tell them, when you talk about this problem.
Uri Levine: Yep.
Lenny Rachitsky: There was a quote I wrote down as you were talking earlier that I think is really great. It’s kind of a framework for … the way you used it is to help you pick which direction to go. But I think it’s a useful framework in general for companies and founders is ask yourself, if I were to start today, what would I have done and what would I do if I were to start this company again today? I think that’s such a powerful thing to always think about even when everything’s going great.
Uri Levine: I agree. Today is the first day of the rest of your life. And this is pretty much everything in your life. So ask yourself, knowing what I know today, would I do something different? Now, if the answer is yes, then do something different today. Don’t wait until next life or next company or next relationship or next something. If you basically know today that you should be doing something different, then change.
Lenny Rachitsky: I think that’s extra important because somebody will do that probably and compete with you and put you out of business, and it’s better that you do that first.
Uri Levine: But this is true for everything in your life. Look, if you are working in a place and you are not happy and you suffer there, then I would say … The guidance that I give to my children is very simple. If you’re not happy at your working place, then ask yourself, is there something that I can do to change that? Then try to change that for the next three month. If you’re unable to change that, then leave. You don’t deserve to be unhappy. And you need to control your own destiny. For me, quitting your job, do you know what it means? You fire your own job boss, that’s what it means. You fire your boss by quitting, that’s it.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s empowering, I like that. Okay, just, okay, two more questions. One is I want to close the loop on the Waze story. So you talked about how Google launched, a competitor basically, free turn-by-turn directions, that was the business you were building and you essentially had to change direction. What did you actually do, how did you decide and realize this?
Uri Levine: We didn’t change. Back in 2010, we were simply not good enough, we were still in the product market fit iterations and iterations and iterations, and we were not good enough. And we kept on building and we kept on iterating and iterating and iterating. But we almost ran out of cash. And then we had this lucky day that Microsoft decided to invest, and so did Qualcomm. The funny part is that I had this dialogue with Qualcomm Ventures and they told me that they’re not sure why is that important for them. And I read someplace that they did not invest at Twitter at 55 million valuation. This is where Waze is today.” And obviously different story, but that was the fear of missing out, the FOMO was [inaudible 01:14:58]
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, I was going to say, good FOMO.
Uri Levine: But the result was that we had enough cash to keep on trying and keep on iterating and iterating and iterating. And eventually we ended up to be very successful. So that was not about pivoting or changing directions or doing anything dramatic. We basically say, okay, we will need to reduce costs dramatically. We decided that we are not … By the way, what we did is we reduced the salary of the management only. And to a certain extent I would say people didn’t even know. We decided in the management meeting that this is what we’re going to do. And if push come to shovel, then we will do the next step and the next step and the next step. But we were eventually able to raise capital. So in that sense, the nearly die was a matter of state of mind, but we did not run out of cash, we raised capital just before that.
Lenny Rachitsky: The story is actually really illustrative of a point I was thinking as you were talking, which is that product market fit crisis often also leads to a cash crisis from investors not wanting to invest.
Uri Levine: In many cases, yes, in many cases.
Lenny Rachitsky: You get a double whammy.
Uri Levine: But to a certain extent I would say no. Product market fit basically means that you go back to square one. The other alternative that you have, and by the way it’s also valid, is if you are unable to convince your existing investors to reinvest in the company in order to build the new part of the journey, the new journey, then you know what? Shut down the company and restart a new company that is doing exactly that. And that’s a bigger threat for investors because they are not part of the new journey. Now, they might want to say, “Oh, the company owns the IP.” The know-how is the people, owned by the people, not the company.
Lenny Rachitsky: How do you avoid the crisis? A lot this advice is here, you have a crisis, here’s how to deal with it. Any advice for how to avoid falling into a crisis as a founder?
Uri Levine: Number one answer is no. Don’t worry, you will face crisis. And if you worry, you’re still going to face crisis. Number two is that, look, it’s way easier to deal with a crisis if you have plenty of cash in the bank. So if you can raise capital and maintain higher level of cash in the bank, it will help you to go through the next crisis, but it’s not going to avoid it. So always be funded is a good advice. But in general, look, you do not prepare for the next crisis because you don’t know what kind of crisis it’s going to be next. And you can assume that there will be the next crisis. Trust me, there will be the next crisis. And then the most important part is that you analyze that fast and then you act fast. But you cannot prepare for it because you don’t know where it’s going to come from. And this is really, really important. The best preparation is that if you have plenty of cash. In general I would say if you have plenty of cash, then this is going to help you for many things.
Lenny Rachitsky: When you say plenty of cash, do you have any advice, kind of common advice of have 18 months of runway, is there anything there you’d recommend for founders?
Uri Levine: And this is really depending on the CEOs and their risk attitude. Some of my CEOs prefer to have two to three years of run rate. They basically say, “This is my comfort zone. I know that I can restart if I need to. I know that I can suffer major crisis. I know that I can go into new direction if I want to. I know that I can expand and try something completely different if I want to.” And this is not necessarily as a result of a crisis. So maybe you basically say here is an opportunity and I have the cash to do that.
My general rule will be around 18 month. Are you okay with 12 month? Yeah, if you risk taker, bigger risk taker then you can survive with 12 month. But the challenge is that, look, if you have shorter period of time, then you don’t have enough time to execute, you need to focus on fundraising all the time. And you want to focus on creating value and not just bringing cash into the company.
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. Obviously the downside of raising more runway is you’re giving away more of your company, but it’s always this trade off, how much to sell, how money to get. Being a founder, what a tough gig. And I’m going to come back to this quote you had that I shared at the beginning of the podcast, which is building a startup is a journey from one crisis to the next.
Uri Levine: Yeah. It goes back into how … the other three dimensions of a startup, it’s a roller coaster journey with ups and downs and ups and downs, and it’s a journey of failures because we are trying to build something new that no one did before so we tried multiple things. For that, Albert Einstein used to say that if you haven’t failed that because you haven’t tried new things before. And it’s a long journey, it’s a very long journey. In particular, the longest part is until you figure out product market fit. And now I add the fourth dimension of that, that this is a journey from one crisis to the next one.
Lenny Rachitsky: How many companies have you started, 10 last time I saw?
Uri Levine: Yeah, about, a little bit more than that, yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky: A little bit more than that.
Uri Levine: Not all of them are going to be successful, but most of them are.
Lenny Rachitsky: In some form. And you just keep doing it. You’re a glutton for crisis is what I’m hearing here.
Uri Levine: I’m not here for the crisis, I’m there for the value creation.
Lenny Rachitsky: Uri, is there anything else that you wanted to share that you think might be helpful to get into before we wrap up?
Uri Levine: I really like this podcast, I really like it.
Lenny Rachitsky: Me too.
Uri Levine: And hopefully, in my mind, this is my mindset of a teacher, my destiny is about value creation, and if this podcast or this book, this one, can help people to become more successful, then I fulfill my destiny.
Lenny Rachitsky: Uri, I’m so delighted to be helping you fulfill your destiny. Two final questions. Where can folks find the book? When is it for sale? And then just how can listeners be useful to you?
Uri Levine: The book is going to be published in about a month from now. And it is already available for pre-orders on Amazon, but later on it will be on bookstores throughout the US and Canada and so forth.
Lenny Rachitsky: What’s the date it’ll be published because we’re recording this … Maybe it’s coming out around the time we publish this. So what’s the date?
Uri Levine: I think it’s February 15th.
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay, great. I think this is coming out right around there, so perfect timing.
Uri Levine: So perfect timing. And you can follow me on LinkedIn or you can go to my website, urilevine.com. And I want you to read the book. End of the day, you asked me at the beginning what do I want to accomplish? Do I want people to buy the book or read the book? And I told you, “Look, everything that I’m trying to do in my life is about doing good and doing well.” So buying the book is the doing well part of it and reading the book is the doing good part of it. And I want you to read the book.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s so good. Uri, thank you so much for being here.
Uri Levine: Thank you, appreciate it.
Lenny Rachitsky: Bye everyone.
Thank you so much for listening. If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast. You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com. See you in the next episode.
Reformatted by reformat_english_direct.py
Waze联合创始人Uri Levine在本文中深入剖析了创业者不可避免的课题:危机管理。他指出,创业本质就是从一个危机走向下一个危机的旅程。Levine将危机精准划分为现金危机与失去产品市场契合度两类,前者关乎生死存亡,后者则需要推倒重来。在应对策略上,他提出两项核心洞见:“永不放弃”是CEO最重要的特质,而“带着信念做决策”则是凝聚团队的前提。他一针见血地指出,当事情未能成功时,责任总在创始人,因为只有主动承担绝对责任,才能真正掌控自身命运。本文结合真实商业案例,为身处不确定环境中的创始人提供了一份务实且充满力量的生存指南。
创始人的危机管理指南 | Uri Levine(Waze联合创始人,连续创业者(serial entrepreneur))
Lenny Rachitsky: 我们来谈谈危机。我认为,对创始人面临的危机类型做一个快速的分类,可能会有所帮助。
Uri Levine: 抽象地看,有两种危机。一种是我称之为现金危机。突然之间,你的现金计划或方案受到威胁,比如失去客户、投资者消失。另一种是失去 product market fit。当产品市场契合度消失时,你实际上需要回到原点。这时你基本上会认为,到目前为止我所知道的一切都变得无关紧要了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 沿着这个思路,你也谈到在危机中以及在整个创业旅程中永不放弃。
Uri Levine: 永远不断寻找让它成功的方法。永不放弃是成功的创业公司CEO最重要的行为。顺便说一下,第二重要的是带着信念做决策。如果你没有信念地做决策,团队就不会追随。如果团队不追随,你就不会成功。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你关于危机建议的核心部分是,如果事情没有成功,那总是创始人的错。
Uri Levine: 归根结底,你无法依赖别人,你只有一家公司,你需要确保这家公司成功。当你承担责任时,你基本上是在说:“你知道吗,我掌控着自己的命运。”
Lenny Rachitsky: 关于创始人如何避免陷入危机,有什么建议吗?
Uri Levine: 第一答案是“没有”,别担心,你一定会面临危机。
嘉宾介绍与危机话题的引入
Lenny Rachitsky: 今天我的嘉宾是 Uri Levine。Uri 是 Waze 以及其他九家公司的联合创始人。他以超过十亿美元的价格出售了两家公司,曾在 20 家不同的创业公司董事会任职,并担任了 50 多家不同创业公司的顾问。更令人印象深刻的是,这是他第二次做客我们的播客。在我们第一次交谈中,我们回顾了他在与所有这些不同创业公司合作过程中学到的最大教训,他将这些记录在了他备受喜爱的书《Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution》中。在这次交谈中,我们将深入探讨一个非常具体的话题:危机。正如 Uri 在他的书中所分享的那样,创办创业公司就是一段从一个危机走向下一个危机的旅程。而我这次交谈的目标,就是为你提供工具,去处理你作为创始人将面临的下一个危机、下下一个危机。这个话题如此重要,以至于 Uri 决定更新并重新发行他的书,增加一个专门讨论危机管理的全新章节。这个新版本实际上将在这期节目上线前后发布。
如果你喜欢这档播客,请不要忘记在你最喜欢的播客应用或 YouTube 上订阅和关注,这是避免错过未来剧集的最好方式,并且对播客帮助巨大。话不多说,有请 Uri Levine。
为什么新增危机管理章节
Lenny Rachitsky: Uri,非常感谢你来这里,欢迎来到播客。
Uri Levine: 谢谢。我非常高兴来到这里。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我刚才应该说“欢迎回到播客”,这是你第二次来这里,这是一个相当罕见的成就。你回来的原因是,第一次我们深入聊了你的那本好书。我现在就拿在手里,《Fall in Love with the Problem, Not the Solution》。而你最近决定重新发行这本书,增加了一个关于每个创始人都会经历的事情的新章节。你实际上有句话,我来读一下,我认为它很好地总结了为什么这如此重要:“创办创业公司就是一段从一个危机走向下一个危机的旅程。” 那我就从这个问题开始吧,你为什么决定增加这个章节,为什么更新你的书如此重要?
Uri Levine: 归根结底,近年来世界各地都上演了重大的危机,从新冠疫情到利率,再到通货膨胀和战争。然后我意识到,等一下,这是我在第一本书中没有谈到的东西,是时候写一个新版本,或者在这次新版中增加一个新章节了。所以这是关于危机的。此外,我的出版商告诉我:“哦,你应该出个平装本,它会卖得更好,也会有更多人去读,因为平装本更容易阅读。” 所以我已经有了这个新版本。
Lenny Rachitsky: 真的吗?
Uri Levine: 大约会在一个月内出版,并且确实包含了一个新章节。而且是平装本。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我很喜欢你解决 jobs to be done(待完成的任务)的方式,为了更容易阅读,就做成平装本。另外,正如你所描述的,这让我意识到你的书之所以这么棒,是因为它基本上是一份循序渐进的指南,涵盖了关于打造一家成功公司你需要知道的所有事情。给人的感觉是,你突然意识到,哦,我漏掉了每个创始人都会经历的这个步骤,那就是危机。
Uri Levine: 是多个危机。
Lenny Rachitsky: 多个危机,我们后面会深入探讨。还有,我很喜欢你确实能更新一本书。通常人们会说:“哦,书嘛,写完了。” 然后就继续往前走了。我很喜欢你实际上有机会去更新一本书,这很令人振奋。
Uri Levine: 我已经在思考下一本了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 下一本书,还是这本书的下一个更新版本?
Uri Levine: 还不确定,还不确定。说到底,我写这本书是有原因的。我写这本书是为了产生更大的影响。我是个连续创业者,大家都知道这一点,所以我创建了 Waze、Moovit 和其他几十家初创公司,但我同时也是一名老师。因此,无论是自己亲手打造产品,还是指导别人去打造,我都能获得同等的成就感。而这本书正在实现我作为一名老师的使命,将我的专业技能分享给创业者、商业人士,以及几乎所有人,帮助他们取得更大的成功。
所以我意识到,我真正希望人们从这本书中带走的东西,是某种能提高他们成功概率的事物。下一本书也大致如此,遵循同样的理念:等一下,如果我能产生更大的影响,我愿意去产生更大的影响。
谈谈危机的真实案例
Lenny Rachitsky: 这是一个很美好的使命。我想我们会做到的。我们来谈谈危机吧。或许为了让人们有非常真实和切身的感受,当你听到“危机”这个词时,你可能会想,“哦,是啊,当然。”你能不能分享一个你经历过的危机故事,用来说明在你创立和咨询过的众多公司中,创始人面临的危机类型,你脑海中浮现的是什么?
Uri Levine: 新冠疫情就是一个极好的例子。我当时的一家初创公司叫 Order.chat,实际上这是 2020 年最早的 AI 聊天机器人之一。它的目的是帮助人们预订餐厅。就像这样简单:“哦,我想预订明晚 XYZ 餐厅的六人位。”这个聊天机器人在以色列实际上非常非常成功。原因在于,我们实际上构建了一个引擎,面向用户的是一个聊天界面,面向餐厅的也是一个聊天界面。所以我们不需要任何对接整合,我们可以随时上线,并在极短的时间内覆盖所有餐厅。这结果是非常成功的,然后新冠疫情爆发了。你猜怎么着?所有餐厅都停止了堂食接待,餐厅预订也就不复存在了。
我们在那方面做得非常好,但我们没有足够的资金真正转型去做完全不同的东西。结果是我们不得不将其关闭。直到现在仍然有人问我那个项目怎么了?它出事的原因就是新冠。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我觉得新冠疫情发生在了很多公司身上。感觉这算是这一章的某种推动力。我想你甚至说过,它在你参与的众多公司中引发了如此多的危机,这让你意识到很多公司和创始人根本没有做好准备。
危机的本质与类型
Uri Levine: 所以总的来说我想说的是,说到底,当我们审视全球性危机时,我们会说:“哦,这将影响某个行业。”但作为一名创业者,你不关心行业,你只关心你自己的初创公司,就这样。如果世界上其他地方的人都在遭受同样的问题,这也帮不到你,一点用都没有。所以你的问题就是你的问题,仅此而已。
然后你需要将其抽象化,并基本上意识到,好吧,等一下,我会把危机定义为你原本拥有的、具有重要意义的东西,突然消失了。比方说,你已经有数百万美元的收入,突然间你最大的客户决定不再续约,你损失了一半的收入。你基本上会突然说:“等一下,我必须适应,发生了一件重大的事情。”
而这件重大的事情就是你的收入消失了,或者是资金消失了,又或者……所以总的来说,第一类危机将围绕现金展开。突然之间,你的现金和你预期的不再一样,发生了一些事情,可能是融资,可能是收入,可能是预测,也可能是你失去了一个大客户,一场现金危机。然后你需要去适应。
第二类危机更为重大,那就是你失去了 product market fit(产品市场契合度)。这可能会发生,可能是因为法规,因为竞争,因为发生了某些戏剧性的事情导致你的产品不再具有价值。我们回到最基本的概念,product market fit(产品市场契合度)非常简单。这意味着你为客户创造了价值,就是这样。你从来没有听说过哪家公司没有找到 product market fit(产品市场契合度)还能存活下来的。它们直接死掉了,仅此而已。
顺便说一下,product market fit(产品市场契合度)通常只有一个指标,只有一个指标,那就是留存(retention)。看,这真的很简单,如果你创造了价值,他们就会回来,就这样。如果他们不回来,那就意味着你没有创造价值。因此在你的初创公司旅程中,这将是第一阶段,它将需要大量的迭代,并且这是一段充满失败的旅程。所以我们会尝试一些东西,行不通,我们就尝试别的东西。我们不断尝试,直到我们找到一件行得通的事情。
但是一旦你弄清楚了这一点,你就准备好进入旅程的下一部分了。但如果这一切都消失了怎么办?如果突然有人改变了他们的法规怎么办?你依赖的某个人、某种非常独特的数据,你能够基于此构建产品,突然之间有人创造了一种让所有人都能访问这些数据的方法。如果出现了一个让你变得无关紧要的竞争对手怎么办?
我用着 iPhone,显然很多人也都在用,而且我已经用了很长时间了。iPhone 诞生于 2007 年。在此之前,我们通常使用带有键盘的不同手机。当 iPhone 推出时,微软基本上说这永远不会成功。他们处于市场领导者的地位,他们拥有 Windows 移动操作系统,该系统运行在世界上几乎所有的手机上。世界上所有的智能手机,从诺基亚到摩托罗拉,到三星,几乎涵盖了所有品牌。他们看着它说这永远不会成功。他们没有意识到它的影响力有多大。所以这是一个竞争对手带着完全不同的东西进入市场。它不仅颠覆了市场,实际上还给几乎其他所有人制造了危机。
结果就是,今天微软已经不是移动操作系统领域的玩家了,诺基亚消失了或者说是几乎消失了,摩托罗拉消失了,而在这个行业里曾经真正举足轻重的几乎所有公司,它们都没有足够快地适应这种变化。而这种变化就是,它们的 product market fit(产品市场契合度)消失了。现在并不是说它们的产品突然变得无关紧要了,而是人们单纯地想要别的东西。
因此,当 product market fit(产品市场契合度)消失时,你实际上需要回到原点。你越快意识到这一点,并基本上承认“到目前为止我所知道的一切,我过去所知道的一切,都已经不再相关了”,就越好。我能重新开始吗?我能回到原点重新开始吗?因为如果你不能,你就会死掉。你在追随你自己的解决方案,并且相信这个解决方案会比市场想要的更能推向市场。而市场想要的截然不同。
这也可能是法规改变的问题。我的一家名叫 Fibo 的初创公司就因为法规的改变而死掉了。Fibo 做的是报税,这是每个人都讨厌却又不得不做的事。当我们开始时,我们基本上会说等一下,当我和人们交谈并问他们你们国家的报税是怎么做的时候,我听到的是非常一致的回答:要么复杂,要么昂贵,或者两者兼有,就这样。然后我说等一下,如果我能简化它呢?如果我们能让它变得非常非常简单呢?
我们通过在五分钟内完成报税来定义简化。无论你做什么,如果能在这个时间内完成,那就足够简单了。我们最终在以色列建立了一个平台,让人们能够在不到三分钟的时间内完成报税。那其实是非常了不起的。现在的结果是,大约……在以色列报税不是强制性的。所以我们实际上让那些直到现在都没有报税的人能够报税了,因为这很简单。我们在一年内将市场规模扩大了25%。
Lenny Rachitsky: 是报税的人数吗?
Uri Levine: 是的。因为很简单。所以你进入平台,你会意识到等一下,我其实有资格获得退税,那让我报税吧。如果我没有资格获得退税,那我就不报了,因为这不是强制性的。结果是,我们增加了税务系统的负荷。突然之间,以色列税务局不再喜欢我们了,他们基本上关停了我们。所以法规改变了,我们一夜之间失去了 product market fit(产品市场契合度)。他们基本上就是说,“哦,我们要关停你,就是明天。”就这样。
现在我们没有足够的消耗率来实际……因为公司差不多刚刚盈亏平衡,所以我们没有足够的资金去尝试寻找其他出路。我们尝试对抗监管机构,但对抗监管机构需要很长一段时间和大量资金,而我们没有那些。
所以法规可能是你失去 product market fit(产品市场契合度)的一个原因。你需要回到原点。而我们决定的是,好吧,我个人决定的是,我不再和法规打交道了。我不想依赖监管机构来允许或不允许我做我想做的事。
避免与监管机构打交道
顺便说一下,对于 Waze,在早期我们认为商业模式将是把数据卖给当局,卖给市政当局,也许还有公共交通系统等等。我们基本上是说等一下,我们拥有世界上最好的交通信息,我可以去一个市政当局,告诉他们在这个城市里每一个红绿灯左转需要多长时间,在一周里的每一天,一天的每一个小时。因此他们可以重新校准交通控制系统,并实现整个道路系统的更好利用。结果证明这是一个非常非常非常缓慢的业务发展过程。他们其实并不在乎。那让人很沮丧。即使你免费提供,他们仍然不在乎。结果是我们改变了商业模式,最终转向了广告。但现实是,我不喜欢和监管机构合作,就是这样。
Lenny Rachitsky: 好的。这里有很多我想深入探讨的内容。一个是这个例子,这个关于失去 product market fit(产品市场契合度)的故事,让我想起了,我请过 Dropbox 的创始人 Drew Houston 上播客,他描述了一个时刻,当苹果推出 Apple Photos 或 iCloud 时,我想是 iCloud,他就像,“这就像是远处爆炸了一朵蘑菇云,你很长一段时间都听不到声音,我们并不一定能确切看到这会对我们的业务产生多大影响。”我认为这在很多情况下都会发生。你看到某件事发生了,你会想,“不,这没问题,反正我们会赢的。”就像我想黑莓对 iPhone 做了同样的事情。
竞争对手带来的危机
Uri Levine: 我们在 Waze 上也遇到了同样的事情,因为当我们开始时,Waze 是免费的,并且是唯一提供免费逐向导航的。原因是我们创建了自己的地图。然后在 2010 年的某一天,谷歌宣布了他们的免费逐向导航。结果是他们在过去两年里一直在绘制美国地图。他们在谷歌地图上启用了这个功能,带有语音指导的逐向导航,比如右转、左转等等。
实际上有两家公司感到震惊,整个行业都震惊了,但有两家公司受到了影响。第一家其实是 TomTom。TomTom 是谷歌做导航的地图提供商。他们基本上是说,“不,我们有自己的地图了,我们要终止合同。”而 TomTom 说,“等一下,你们每年付给我们 1800 万美元,而且我们有五年的合同。”谷歌说,“是的,我们会继续支付我们承诺的那笔钱,但我们不会再使用你们的产品了。”
另一家就是 Waze,因为基本上行业里的每个人都告诉我们我们死定了。我们自己的投资者也告诉我们,“看,如果我们今天能以 2000 万或 3000 万美元卖掉公司,就卖了吧,因为你们不会成功了。”
现在显然我们挺过来了,并且结果是非常成功的。甚至到了最后谷歌收购了我们的地步。原因是使用场景不同。Waze 专注于日常通勤者。所以我们希望人们每天使用我们的应用程序两次,当你去办公室和当你回家的时候。而谷歌地图是你使用得没那么频繁的东西,一般来说我想如果我问一百个人他们多久使用一次 Waze,他们会告诉我每天。如果我问他们多久使用一次谷歌地图,他们会告诉我,“当我需要的时候。”所以是不同的使用场景,显然也是为使用场景的特异性而构建的不同产品。所以 Waze 简单得多,地图看起来几乎是抽象的,其实不是,但看起来像抽象的,细节也少得多。结果就是能够创造出一种更简单的东西,并且人们每天都在使用。
但是当谷歌宣布逐向导航时,世界上所有的投资者都背弃了我们。那是在 2010 年。我们正在寻找新的资金。我记得那天晚上,因为我们正准备去参加 Khosla Ventures 的所有合伙人会议。我们在那之前开了好几次会,那就像是在说,好吧,这是最后一道关卡了。
而在前一天晚上,我们和在 Khosla Ventures 推荐我们的合伙人吃了晚饭,他告诉我们,“看,我在这个行业有很多关系,我和我在谷歌的朋友谈过了,他们告诉我他们至少还要两年才能建立自己的地图。”而第二天早上他们就直接宣布了这个逐向导航。去参加那个会议已经是浪费时间了。因为那件事,我们筹集资金变得非常非常困难。
但最终我们算是幸运的,因为一旦谷歌宣布了他们的逐向导航,结果证明行业的其他人都措手不及。微软决定等一下,我们没有自己的地图,所以让我们投资 Waze 吧。所以我们最终从我们意想不到的人那里得到了投资。
创始人面临的危机分类
Lenny Rachitsky: 好的。首先,你分享了所有这些类型的危机,我觉得对创始人面临的危机类型做一个快速分类可能会有帮助。你分享了法规改变、竞争对手向你袭来、投资者不想投资。
Uri Levine: 所以抽象地来说,有两种类型的危机。一种是我会称之为现金危机。所以突然之间你的现金计划或方案受到危害,因为失去了一个客户,投资者消失了,没有达到你的期望,市场上出现剧烈的价格变化等等。另一种是失去 product market fit(产品市场契合度)。所以突然之间你拥有的所有东西都变得不再相关了,你实际上需要回到原点。
对于第一种类型的危机,如果这是一个现金危机,那么你真正需要问自己的是,而且在任何类型的危机中,首先是什么实际上受到了影响?是我的消耗率,是我的产品,是我的收入流吗?如果我仍然相关的话?
以 Order.chat 为例,我们已经变得不再相关了,就是这样。因此你需要做的第一件事就是,到底是什么受到了影响?然后第二件事是,这种情况会持续多久?是暂时的吗?是永远的吗?这就是新的未来吗?然后你问自己,好的,那么我的消耗率还有多少?并据此重新计划。
我给你举几个例子,这非常重要,因为假设你是一家年收入 500 万美元的公司,比如每月 40 万美元,而你的烧钱率(burn rate),你的净烧钱率是 20 万美元。那么实际上在这一年末,为了维持一年的运转,你需要大约 250 万美元来支撑。如果你失去了一半的收入,而你在银行里只有 250 万美元,你现在就只有六个月的运转时间。所以显然你需要重新适应。
现在,你可能会对自己说:“我将保持原定路线,我会在五个月后处理这场危机。”或者你基本上可以说:“不,我要改变我的支出,以适应我目前的收入流,并且仍然保持 12 个月的消耗率。”无论你要决定什么,你都需要在今天,此时此刻做出决定。原因非常简单,如果你想减少烧钱、减少支出以延长消耗率,如果你再等两个月,那么这将变得几乎不可能做到。
如果你再等六个月,那么显然这是不可能做到的。所以你等待的时间越长,你实际上就失去了选择权。唯一能够选择的能力就是今天。这是危机中最具挑战性的部分之一,你实际上需要迅速做出决定,比如就在今天。
这其中有几个原因。第一是如果你不这样做,你可能会失去选择权。第二,这关乎在组织内部传达那个决定。听着,如果发生了危机,每个人都知道,每个人都知道,而你对此什么都不做,这不是一个好习惯。现在你可能想要决定,不,我们要继续全速前进,直到撞墙,因为这样我们就能增加足够冲力越过那堵墙的可能性。但你必须与你的团队沟通这件事,因为真正承受痛苦的不仅仅是你,而是整个团队。
他们知道有危机,他们想知道握着方向盘的人正在做出决定。如果你不这样做,你猜怎么着?你就会成为一艘沉船。而接下来会发生的是,最优秀的表现者,他们会离开。
Lenny Rachitsky: 让我快速总结一下你分享的内容,给大家一个宏观图景,然后我们继续沿着这个方向往下走。所以基本上有两种类型的危机。还有小危机,我想象中可能是某人对某事感到愤怒。你描述的是重大危机,就像是你的初创公司的生存危机。这样理解对吗?
Uri Levine: 对的。因为如果一个 A 级员工离开,我很讨厌这样,但这并不是危机。
Lenny Rachitsky: 好的。所以有两种,现金危机,要么是一大笔收入消失了,要么是投资者撤资或不想继续支持你了。这是两个主要的大类。然后是 product market fit(产品市场契合度)危机,可能是竞争对手发布了产品,可能是市场发生了变化,诸如此类。而在现金危机中,假设你意识到我们没有计划或需要的那么多现金,你刚刚描述了三个步骤:到底什么受到了影响?真实地面对这种变化对我们业务的影响。我们认为这场现金危机会持续多久?以及在我们实际上耗尽现金之前,我们还有多少时间?
Uri Levine: 是的。然后你需要决定,然后你需要决定你的行动和新计划,也许这是一个新策略。如果突然之间,我想说如果这是关于 product market fit 消失了,那么这就是一个新策略。也许是决定延长消耗率,或者继续尝试,或者别的什么。这是一件非常有趣的事情。
疫情下的滑雪业务危机
我们回到新冠时期,我看看我在旅游领域的两家初创公司,其中一家是 WeSki,它本质上是滑雪假期的 booking.com。你猜怎么着?新冠疫情开始了。不再有去欧洲的滑雪旅行了。欧洲完全关闭了。所有的滑雪区都关闭了。
你知道我是一个狂热的滑雪者吗?对我个人来说那是一场灾难。顺便说一下,最终发生的事情是,我回到了特拉维夫,我无法前往欧洲,直到 2022 年的某个时候,在接种疫苗等等之后,我才能够前往美国。而在 2022 年 3 月,我实际上把自己搬到了犹他州的盐湖城,我基本上说:“不,只要我不忙,我每天都要滑雪。”然后我一直滑雪到雪季结束。
所以发生的事情是新冠疫情开始了,我们意识到我们遇到了大问题。而这个问题实际上,你首先面对的是取消订单,因为突然之间,从每天非常少的取消订单,变成了每天有数百个取消订单,因为就是这样。在你处理完那件事之后,我们问自己的下一个问题是,好的,那么情况有多糟,这会持续多久?
现在那本该是我们实现盈利的第一年。所以我们在银行里没有很多现金,因为我们预期今年会实现盈利。我们基本上告诉自己,好的,这个雪季结束了,下一个雪季不会发生了。我们不知道,但我们需要为可能持续更长时间的情况做计划。然后我们基本上说,好的,我们该怎么应对?
现在,因为 WeSki 有很多来自旅游业的战略投资者,而在旅游业,他们并不真正关心 WeSki,他们关心的是他们自己的产品。如果你是一家连锁酒店,你猜怎么着?你没有旅客了。如果你是一家航空公司,你猜怎么着?你没有乘客了。所以旅游业中的每个人都遭受着同样的问题。
应对策略与转机
他们在这个世界上最不关心的就是他们投资的一家初创公司。我们意识到,好吧,等一下,我们没有足够的现金在没有收入的情况下撑过两个雪季,我们需要筹集额外的资本。现在,没有人,没有新投资者会和我们说话,因为没有滑雪这回事了,所以你在说什么?
我们接触了现有的投资者,顺便说一下我也是其中之一,我们基本上说:“好的,你知道吗?我们需要你的帮助。”而每个人都告诉我们:“哦,我们很忙。我们还有其他问题要处理。我们有我们自己的问题。我不明白这怎么会变成一项好投资,等等。”然后我们基本上决定,好吧,等一下,我们要做一个 pay to play(按比例跟投)。
按比例跟投实际上有点像是以牺牲现有投资者为代价来迫使新投资者加入。例如,进行一次重大 down round(降价融资)就是一种按比例跟投,因为如果你不参与,你在公司中的股份将被严重稀释。这就是我们决定要做的事。那要复杂得多,我在书里描述了,比那要复杂得多,因为我们还有 safe(未来股权简单协议)工具,在我们真正能够做类似的事情之前需要转换它们。那真的非常复杂。
但我们最终做到了。而今天这家公司实际上非常成功。在新冠疫情之后,我们利用了新冠疫情期间的时间来实际改进产品,一旦新冠疫情结束,我们就开始快速成长。这家公司是盈利的,正在快速成长,实际上为其客户提供了非常非常好的服务。在某种程度上我想说,我们最终成功地走出了这场危机。
但如果你身处其中并问自己,那么我们最终成功的几率有多大?看起来要小得多。小得多。所以这里发生的情况是,你意识到,好的,这不会永远持续下去,所以滑雪会回来,但我们不知道要多久,因此我们假设它会持续两个赛季直到它回来,直到2022年。为此我们需要适应。因此我们将公司规模缩减得非常、非常精简和小巧,我们筹集了刚好足够的资金来度过这两年。结果证明这非常有效。但从这个意义上说,现在如果你问我这其中有多少运气的成分,运气总是好的。
我想我听说过……也许是纽约最重要的房地产开发商是 Silverstein,他建造了世界贸易中心以及哈德逊河沿岸几乎所有的建筑。有人问他如何成为如此成功的开发商,他说:“说实话,这是85%的运气加上15%的技能、诀窍等等。”然后他被问到如果能改变一件事,那会是什么,他说:“你知道吗?我要用额外的15%运气来替换那15%的技能。”所以运气是好的。对我来说,我会将运气定义为机会遇见准备。准备取决于你;而机会,并不总是。
准备与运气
**Lenny Rachitsky:**说得太好了。我也赞同运气在大多数人的成功、大多数公司的成功中起着核心作用。但我觉得你对于其中涉及的技能、时机等方面的努力工作,给予的肯定不够。
**Uri Levine:**在于准备。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**那就是准备。
**Uri Levine:**在于准备好利用机会。
创始人的绝对责任
**Lenny Rachitsky:**这说得通。好的,这里有很多我想深入探讨的东西。其中一点是,这有点跑题了,但我认为这是你关于危机建议的核心部分,那就是如果事情不顺利,总是创始人的错,即使它们完全超出你的控制,即使整个世界都在改变,如果事情不顺利,这仍然是你的责任和你的错。
**Uri Levine:**我不会说是错,我会说是责任。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**责任。
**Uri Levine:**结果可能不完美,在某些情况下你会死掉。但归根结底你不能依赖别人。利率上升导致筹集资金变得非常、非常困难,这是全行业面临的事实,那又怎样?你只有一家公司,你需要确保这家公司成功。如果之后你失败了,那么你可以依赖并基本上说:“这是我的借口,不只是我的问题。”不只是我的问题,不会帮助你变得成功。只有我的问题,才会帮助你变得成功。当你承担责任时,你就能够……你基本上是在说:“你知道吗?我掌控自己的命运。我要做出决定,我掌控自己的命运。”当这种情况发生时,无论市场的其他部分发生什么,你都会增加成功的可能性,而你也不会真正在意。
危机中永不放弃
**Lenny Rachitsky:**你也沿着这些思路谈论过,在你的章节里,关于在危机中永不放弃的部分,在你整个旅程中,这是初创公司CEO迄今为止最重要的行为。你能谈谈这个吗。因为很多时候就像是也许该停下来,也许该放弃。你分享过一个例子,就像是我不想处理监管、其他公司,我就要停下来。对此你有什么建议,就好比,好吧,也许停下来并把投资者的钱退回去确实有道理,而不是说,是的,不放弃只是你工作的一部分。
**Uri Levine:**我听说过这样的情况,你基本上会说我们的潜在假设没有奏效,我们的论点是错误的,因此我们想把投资者的钱还给他们。但企业家永不放弃。这是初创公司CEO最成功的行为,永不放弃,总是不断寻找方法让它成功。所以这将是一段失败的旅程,特别是在危机期间,但你仍然需要不断尝试让它成功,尽管这要困难得多。所以永不放弃是成功的初创公司CEO最重要的行为。
第二个行为,顺便说一下,是坚定地做出决定。这对所有CEO或所有公司都是如此,不仅仅是初创公司。现在对于初创公司,这些决定可能更频繁,而且有很多。但在危机期间,世界上所有的CEO都需要做出艰难的决定。你需要坚定地做出它们,因为如果你不坚定地做出它们,那么会发生的情况是团队不会跟随。如果团队不跟随,那么你就不会成功。
但永不放弃。如果你问企业家会发生什么,他们基本上会告诉你:“不,我们会继续战斗。”我的另一家旅游行业的初创公司叫 Oversee,那时候他们叫 FairFly。CEO告诉我,猫可能有九条命。从这个意义上说我们就是一只猫,我们有九条命。我知道这一点的原因是,我们已经死了九次或者几乎死了九次。所以现实是你不放弃,你继续前进只要……
其次我想说,看,你想放弃的理由只有两个。一个是你的使命是错误的。所以问题消失了。如果问题消失了,你的使命就不再相关或不再有效,你可能需要考虑放弃。
另一个是,如果团队不合适,而你又无法改变它。所以你把有害的投资者带入了董事会,他们开始控制公司,显然在许多情况下他们造成的损害多于帮助。而你再也无法改变这一点了,那么这就是一个放弃的好理由。
除此之外,永不放弃。危机也好,不是危机也好,艰难困苦也好,没钱支付也好,没有……任何可能发生的事情,任何你可能认为会发生的事情都会发生。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这种永不放弃的理念,与上过播客的 Dalton Caldwell 非常相似,他是 YC 的合伙人,他整个……他在 YC 有一个著名的演讲,我想,这也是这期播客的标题,就是不要死。这是他对初创企业的主要建议,就是不要死。
Uri Levine: 永不放弃。
Lenny Rachitsky: 永不放弃。
Uri Levine: 顺便说一句,你可能会死,你可能会死,但你永不放弃。
Lenny Rachitsky: 然后浴火重生。明确地说,初创企业死亡的方式就是他们把钱花光了,这是考虑这个问题最简单的方式吗?
Uri Levine: 这是他们死亡的唯一方式。顺便说一句,世界上所有的公司,它们无法支付账单,因此它们就死了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你分享的许多策略其实就是不把钱花光的方法。通常这涉及降价融资,创建奇怪的资本结构只是为了让它活下去,失去股权比例只是为了让它继续运转,这基本上就是工作的一部分,也就是你必须面对的。
Uri Levine: 在许多情况下,我们必须去调动员工,“不,我们没有现金了。”所以我们做的是稀释所有股东的股份,为了给员工多得多的股权,所以他们拥有的股权是以前的五倍。我们告诉他们,我们需要你们信任我们,相信这项事业,相信我们恢复的能力。如果我们做不到,那么每个人都会输,但如果我们做到了,那么每个人都会赢麻了。因此,如果你无法支付他们正常的薪水,这实际上是一种重新调动员工积极性的方法,在几乎所有耗尽现金的初创企业中,情况都是如此。
偶尔你可以这样做,如果你要告诉我你下个月就会耗尽现金因此你需要关门,我愿意设想你至少还有六个月的消耗率。你并不知道,但这是通过领导力。所以你基本上告诉你的员工,“留在我身边,你相信这项事业,你相信我的领导力,我仍然相信这项事业,我也仍然相信你们。也许我们会经历一段艰难时期,也许我们会有几个月无法支付薪水,但最终我们会走出困境。”在许多情况下,大多数人都会留下来。
现在,领导力,你不是在危机期间建立领导力的,你也许可以,但特别是你通过透明度,通过对团队的认可,通过真正将你的团队置于首位来建立领导力。归根结底,如果你的团队交付了,你就会成功。而为了让团队交付,他们需要你信任他们能交付。
危机中的团队留存
Lenny Rachitsky: 这真是非常有用的建议,我想在这里多花点时间,也就是在危机中让员工留在船上并保持参与感和积极性。所以你刚才分享的这种几乎像剧本一样的话真的很好。你是否发现还有其他有用的东西,或者你能分享什么建议来帮助创始人留住团队,让人们感到兴奋、有动力?你分享的这些话我认为是一个非常好的例子,还有其他什么吗?
Uri Levine: 所以在危机期间,人们比任何其他东西都更感激透明度。如果你对他们隐瞒信息,那么他们就会离开,他们不再信任你。但是如果有危机,而且听着,如果有危机,每个人都知道有危机,这对任何人来说都不意外。而这是他们最期望你展现领导力的地方,这是他们期望你为他们挺身而出的地方,并告诉他们这就是我们要做的。如果 ABC 发生了,那么我们就会成功,如果没有,那么我们就会死。我希望你相信我们能够交付 A、B 和 C,我希望你为了旅程的这一部分留在这里。这真的是非常非常戏剧化,这也许是最重要的部分。听着,在危机期间,团队是将带你走出危机的人,你比以往任何时候都更需要他们,你猜怎么着?他们也需要你。
Lenny Rachitsky: 当你谈论对所有事情保持透明和开放时,关于你建议人们走多远,有什么例子吗?因为你可以只是像这样,这是我们所有的数据和指标和数字,这是我们的投资者发邮件给我的内容。你建议人们要多么真实?我知道很难只用几句话来总结,但说明这一点的好方法是什么?
透明的边界与细节
Uri Levine: 所以第一,不要粉饰太平。所以你基本上不需要分享所有投资者的所有反馈,你可以告诉他们,“听着,过去几周我见了几十个投资者,他们都在说不。”或者我们有一份签了字的条款清单,然后投资者消失了,好吧,这没什么,事实就是如此。听着,它很丑陋这个事实,如果你不说它很丑陋,它仍然很丑陋。
我会分享本质。如果我们有指标,那么我想做的是相信每个人都了解这些指标,了解公司的关键指标。这是一般情况下我会说的,“哦,在办公室的大厅里,我们应该展示关键指标,让每个人都能理解这是我们代表的东西,这是我们无论如何执行得有多好的证明。”所以当他们看到数字下降时,他们知道数字下降了。这是一般情况下我会说的,听着,关键指标,无论如何都应该被分享,所以特别是在危机期间,我们应该继续分享它们,绝对不要隐瞒信息。所以如果你有一个大客户离开,或者投资者消失,或者我们无法签署条款清单,所以这就是重点,这是主要问题,而细节本身就不那么关键了。现在如果人们问,那么就回答。如果有人问,“好的,那么你见了多少个投资者?”我会说不,然后开始数,37个,要具体。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个回答很好。我想回到你说过的一件事上,我认为它非常重要但也非常困难,那就是快速行动。如果我是一个创始人,市场发生了变化,很容易说,“好的,你需要削减烧钱率,你需要去筹集资金,降价融资。”但这太难做了,去裁员,去为你的公司做所有这些充满挑战的事情。你能再次帮助人们理解为什么快速行动如此重要吗?你谈到过选择权会消失。如果你不这样做,到底会发生什么?
Uri Levine: 所以我给你举个例子。假设你几乎快要用光现金了,并且你相信你在接下来的两个月内能筹集到资金。如果不这么做,你就会耗尽现金。你可能想做的事情之一是延长消耗率。你可能想做的另一件事实际上是告诉人们,我们将在两个月内耗尽现金。第一,即使我们耗尽了现金,我也希望你能帮助我,因为我们最终能够筹集到资金并恢复过来的可能性很大。第二,为了获得你对公司的支持和信任,我将提供给你更多的股权。所以,给予更多股权这件事我会做两次,一次在今天,一旦你意识到这将充满挑战,然后如果我们需要要求人们减薪或在那方面做一些戏剧性改变时,再做一次。
第一件其实是一种预防性行动。所以你分享经验,你分享我们将要面临的挑战。你展现出慷慨不是出于被迫,而是你主动展现了这一点。然后你基本上极大地增加了他们的忠诚度和他们的承诺。而当你需要他们的时候,他们会在那里。所以这是一个例子。
计算现金消耗与行动时机
另一个例子是关于计算现金耗尽的时间。这真的非常重要。假设你的消耗率是X个月,六个月。如果你今天将烧钱率降低50%,那么你就简单地将你的消耗率延长到了一年。如果你今天不这么做而是再等三个月,那么你只能……所以前三个月你按照到目前为止的方式燃烧现金,现在你把它减半,所以你还有六个月,总共九个月。如果你今天决定你需要12个月,而你今天不行动,你将永远不会有12个月。
现在,那是唯一的方法吗?不,它不是唯一的方法,但顺便说一下,这是大多数公司都会采用的方法之一。所以他们会今天降低烧钱率以延长消耗率。那会更有帮助吗?不知道。真的取决于具体情况。
如果你问我,如果你降低烧钱率,增加消耗率,所以现在你有12个月的时间来筹集新资金,这是否会更有可能让你维持当前的计划和增长,并在六个月内筹集到资金?我不知道。但这正是你需要做出的决定。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个说法真的非常好。仅仅是数学上就意味着,你越早做出决定,你现在拥有的延长资金链(runway)的杠杆作用就大得多。而且关键在于,回到你关于决定我们是否需要这样快速行动的算法,首先是考虑什么受到了影响,然后这种影响会持续多久,然后在你耗尽资金之前你还有多少时间。这些问题就是你关于决定我们现在是否要裁员,我们现在是否要筹集资金的建议。
削减成本与人员决策
Uri Levine: 顺便说一下,总是有裁员的替代方案的。总的来说,我会说让大家离开可能比给每个人降薪要好。但假设你需要削减30%的成本。其中一个选择是让30%的人离开。另一个选择实际上是给每个人减薪30%。这会产生相同的影响。不完全相同,对资产负债表和损益表(P&L)的影响是相同的,但对组织的影响不一定相同。如果组织觉得他们彼此承诺,他们会选择第二种方式。如果这更多是个人主义的,那么显然他们会选择第一种方式。
有不同的方法吗?如果管理层放弃他们的薪水呢?这可能产生相同的影响。而且绝对是领导力的展现。顺便说一下,这增加了组织其余部分的承诺。
所以从这个意义上说,我想说有多种削减成本的方法。但总的来说,这总是关于影响人。如果你看这家初创公司,你看这个预算,70%的预算是人,也许75%的预算是人。其他一切都是零碎的小钱。如果你要告诉我,“哦不,我们要开始停止向办公室供应咖啡,这就是我们要削减成本的方式。”不,这是你制造团队不满的方式,你会降低成本是因为有些人会因为这样而离开,不是因为缺乏咖啡,而是因为无法下定决心做出艰难的决定。所以归根结底,如果你需要削减成本,那就意味着人。
应对 product market fit 危机
Lenny Rachitsky: 这真的是很好的建议,也是相对于裁员来说非常值得考虑的一组选择。所以到目前为止我们讨论的大部分内容都是现金危机路线。我们在 product market fit(产品市场契合度)危机路线上花了一点时间。但我想在那上面多花点时间。所以对于现金危机路线,你有这大概三个问题,然后就像,酷,这会告诉你行动要多快,削减要多严厉。在 product market fit 路线中,本质上如果你失去了 product market fit,就是要转型(pivot),这基本上就是问题所在吗?然后就是转型到哪里以及做什么的问题?
Uri Levine: 所以第一个问题是,我仍然相关吗?可能答案是否定的。然后你基本上会问的下一个问题是,“好吧,我想转型吗?”为此我会说,“如果我今天开始,这就是我要做的吗?”如果答案是肯定的,那就去做。
现在在很多情况下你会说,“哦,等一下,我已经有了组织,我已经有了银行里的钱,这就是我转而要做的。”我不一定会那样做。我看待它的方式是不同的。因为另一种选择基本上是说,“等一下,我所有底层假设都没了,它们是错误的。”我失去了 product market fit。我拥有的价值主张是错误的,或者不再有效,或者不再相关。因此我需要从头开始。我真的有资产在新路径上取得成功吗?
而这些资产可以是你已经开发的技术,可以是你已经建立的团队,可以是你在那个特定市场中拥有的、给你带来显著优势的经验。如果其中任何一项真的非常显著,那么你可能想要转型。转型基本上就是说彻底搞砸了,我们所有的底层假设都没了。
而因为其他一切,如果不是这样,那这就是失败旅程的一部分。如果你告诉我,“哦,我们尝试了这个产品或者我们尝试了这个功能但没有用,”那么这就是失败的旅程。这将会是你的旅程。
但是一旦你弄清楚了 product market fit,如果它消失了,那么转型是一个选择,关闭是另一个选择。而对于关闭,有两件事你需要问自己。我还有精力继续下去吗?也许你基本上会说,“我花了过去七年时间试图做到这一点,现在它没了,你知道吗?我需要休息一段时间。”
**Uri Levine:**另一个问题是,我是否真的拥有能够取得巨大成功的资产?Pontera 是我在 2012 年创立的一家初创公司,那时我们叫它 FeeX,在以色列处理金融手续费,实际上相当成功。然后我们决定进军美国,有一天 CEO 来找我说,“听着,我们需要专注,我没法两者兼顾,所以我们需要转型(pivot)。”为了把所有精力集中在美国业务上,我们彻底停止了以色列的运营。然后我们意识到这头野兽的本质不同了,因此我们需要重新寻找 product market fit(产品市场契合度)。最终我们借助奥巴马政府的监管规定找到了它,那是我们在 2016 或 17 年的产品。
后来政府换届了,现在又要换届,他们修改了规定。一夜之间我们发现……而我们当时实际上正走在成功的道路上,不得不重塑自己。当时我们基本上是说,“听着,我们有精力继续下去,我们有一个相信可能与我们相关的论点。我们有能够支撑这个论点的技术,我们也有足够的现金去尝试。”我们回到董事会,给他们提供了两个选项:第一,我们把钱还给你们;第二,这就是我们要尝试的方向。
有趣的是,投资者不想要回他们的钱。他们投资不是为了拿回本金,而是为了产生重大影响。显然,他们也不想回到自己的投资者那里说,你猜怎么着?因此我们得到了全力支持去尝试其他方向。自 2018 年以来,我们实际上在这条道路上相当成功。突然之间,公司已经 12 岁了,我们转型了两次。现在归根结底,我们在帮助美国人更富裕地退休,帮助财务顾问在 401k 计划、退休储蓄计划上提供支持,结果相当显著。所以这家公司正走在成功的道路上,但我们差点死了两次。
看看吧,世界上所有的 CEO,如果你问他们,你是否曾经濒临死亡?他们会告诉你是的。下一个问题会是多少次?他们会告诉你是好多次。如果他们没有,那意味着他们在自己的旅程中才刚刚起步。
濒死体验与坚持
**Lenny Rachitsky:**这是一个非常重要的观点。刚刚提到这点,我刚刚在播客里请了 Shopify 的 Toby,他说的完全一样。就像 Shopify 差点死掉的次数,人们根本不知道。重要的是要知道,这非常普遍。
**Uri Levine:**是的。我和 Shopify 总裁 Harley Finkelstein 是好朋友,他告诉我……我们交换了关于差点死掉的恐怖故事。而我们依然在这里。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**就是永远不要放弃。快速重申一下关于转型的这点。为了帮助你决定转型是否是个好主意,你分享过你应该考量这些方面:你有一些可能在新方向上有用的技术,你有一个非常适合这个新想法的团队,或者你有一些知识积累。还有其他方面吗?就是说你应该考量一份怎样的清单,来想出主意并决定这对我们来说是一个值得追求的好方向?
转型的核心考量与执行步骤
**Uri Levine:**所以回到基本点,但现在你已经在运转了,所以你可能已经验证了问题或价值主张。关于转型,当你起步时你觉得,好吧,我有这个绝妙的主意。我真正鼓励人们做的是,首先去验证问题,与人交谈,理解他们对问题的认知。只有在这之后才开始考虑解决方案。现在,在大多数初创公司中情况仍然并非如此。这就是要爱上问题,而不是爱上解决方案。出于几个原因,也许首要原因是,听着,创业旅程就是关于创造价值。创造价值的最简单方式,就是卖一个产品,就这样,最简单的方式。我喜欢简单。
但除此之外,当你专注于问题时,这个问题就会成为你旅程的北极星。当你有了一个北极星,你在航向上就会减少偏离,增加成功的可能性。而且大体上,你的故事也会更有说服力。如果我们在 2007 年在这里,我告诉你我要构建一个基于众包的人工智能导航系统,你会说,“哦,是的,非常有趣,”但你并不关心。如果我告诉你我要帮你避免交通拥堵,那么你就会关心。当你的客户关心时,他们希望你成功。而当他们希望你成功时,他们就会帮助你走向成功。
所以这也是以同样的方式回到转型上,首先,验证你的价值主张是什么,你要解决的问题是什么。现在,在大多数情况下你已经验证了这一点,因为你在市场上摸爬滚打了几年,与客户有过对话,你已经意识到了这一点。也许你已经告诉自己,你知道吗?在我的下一个初创公司我就会这么做。所以可能你已经完成了验证。如果你还没有,那么这正是重新验证价值主张的恰当时机。所以这是你需要做的第一件事。然后你想做的第二件事是问自己,我在这里是否真的拥有显著优势?我是否真的拥有团队、技术、诀窍,能够从这里实现飞跃并真正引领市场?
然后另一部分是,好吧,我是否有精力和激情去把这一切重做一遍?因为这就相当于回到原点,试图弄清楚 product market fit,然后弄清楚商业模式,接着弄清楚增长等等。也就是从头开始的整个旅程。如果你对所有这些问题都回答是,那么你拥有非常重要的价值主张,并且你认为凭借诀窍、技术和团队,你拥有能够让你大幅加速的东西,那么你接下来要做的就是在团队内部进行验证。
在你的底层假设中,团队会继续留下来。也许会,也许不会。这正是你想要验证这一点的时候。而你验证的方式基本上就是对他们说,“猜怎么着?我们完蛋了。我们的底层假设不再成立。这是我们的新机会,我们可以走这条路,或者我们就等死。”然后看看大家的反应,如果他们相信这条新路径,那么这就是个好主意。
顺便说一句,在许多情况下,新路径很有可能来自于他们。他们更接近客户,也更接近技术。他们大概比你更清楚这条新路径是否真的行得通。如果是这种情况,那你就去执行。
你最后要考虑的一点是……听着,即使你没有这笔钱,假设你银行里没有大量现金,也要回去找投资者,回去筹集资金,因为现在你实际上拥有一个非常显著的优势。你已经拥有了技术,拥有了团队,拥有了诀窍,你已经是一名第二次创业的创业者了,因为转型就像从头重新开始,或者你已经是多次创业的创业者了,所以你今天比几年前要有吸引力得多。所以去找现有的投资者和新投资者,为这段新旅程筹集更多资金吧。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我喜欢这个算法,刚才听你讲的时候我就记录下来了。基本上,当你决定转型,寻找转型的机会时,第一步是找到一个问题,验证这个问题的存在。第二步是弄清楚你是否拥有能让你在解决这个问题上占据优势的技术、团队或诀窍。然后问问自己,你是否有激情和精力去花费人生中的许多年来攻克这个问题?接着去验证你的团队是否也愿意追求解决这个问题,然后再去和投资者沟通,争取获得资金来支持你追求解决这个问题。
Uri Levine: 没错。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太棒了。
Uri Levine: 而且我现在很喜欢这个顺序。有些人会告诉你,“哦,我的顺序不一样。”我并不是说这究竟是对还是错,但我认为……我之所以说这是正确的顺序,其中一个原因是,听着,当你验证了问题和价值主张,即使你一开始没有激情,一旦得到验证,你的激情就会被建立起来。因为接下来你与潜在客户交谈,告诉他们,“这是我打算做的,而这将如何帮助你们。”他们会说,“是的,我需要这个。你们明天能做出来吗?”然后突然之间你就会对此感到兴奋。
通常当我谈论消费者时,我会告诉人们,听着,当你去谈论这个问题时,如果你得到的回答是,“哦,我认识有这个问题的人,”不要走这条路。如果他们告诉你,“不,不,不,不,不,这不是问题所在,问题其实是,”然后他们会给出他们版本的问题,这才是你应该追随的方向。在某种程度上,如果你和足够多的人交谈,你会有一种被委以使命的感觉。而这时候你的激情就会冲破天际,所以不要从激情开始,让激情被建立起来。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我完全有同感。我有一些朋友创办了 Zip 这家公司,这是一个非常出色的采购平台。我不知道他们从小是不是就渴望去建立一家帮助改善采购体验的企业,他们在选中这个想法之前转型了六次。但是通过这个过程,我认为他们发现了这件事有多么重要,以及一个好产品能在多大程度上让人们日常工作更愉快,于是他们对此兴奋起来。而现在这就是他们在构建的东西。
Uri Levine: 当你尝试验证一个问题时,发生的最美好的事情就是你和某人交谈,他们会用非常强烈的情感词汇告诉你,“我讨厌那个,”或者类似的话。是的,这正是你要寻找的,你在寻找人们会产生情感投入并带有强烈情绪的东西。
Lenny Rachitsky: 曾经有人这样描述,你要去寻找当你告诉他们、当你谈论这个问题时,他们的瞳孔是否会放大。
Uri Levine: 没错。
“重新开始”的思维框架
Lenny Rachitsky: 你早些时候在讲的时候,我记下了一句话,我觉得非常棒。这算是某种框架……你使用它的方式是帮助你选择走哪个方向。但我认为这对于公司和创始人来说普遍是一个有用的框架,就是问问自己,如果我今天重新开始,我会做什么?如果我今天重新创办这家公司,我会怎么做?我认为即使一切进展顺利,这也是一个永远值得思考的强大命题。
Uri Levine: 我同意。今天是你余生第一天,这基本上适用于你生活中的所有事情。所以问问自己,知道了今天我所知道的,我会做些不同的事情吗?现在,如果答案是肯定的,那么今天就去做些不同的事情。不要等到下辈子、下一家公司、下一段感情或下一个什么东西,如果你今天基本上知道了你应该做些不同的事情,那就改变。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我认为这格外重要,因为很可能会有其他人这么做,然后与你竞争并把你逼出局,所以最好是你自己先这么做。
掌控自己的命运
Uri Levine: 但这对你生活中的所有事情都适用。听着,如果你在一个地方工作,你不开心,你在那里感到痛苦,那么我会说……我给孩子们的指导非常简单。如果你在工作场所不开心,那就问问自己,我能做些什么来改变这种情况吗?然后在接下来的三个月里尝试改变它。
如果你无法改变,那就离开,你不应该承受不开心。你需要掌控自己的命运,对我来说,辞去你的工作,你知道这意味着什么吗?这意味着你解雇了你的老板,你通过辞职解雇了你的老板,就是这样。
Waze 的资金危机
Lenny Rachitsky: 这很赋予人力量,我喜欢这个。好吧,还有两个问题,一个是我想给 Waze 的故事收个尾。你谈到了谷歌推出了一款竞争对手产品,基本上就是免费的逐向导航,而那正是你们正在构建的业务,你们本质上必须改变方向。你们实际上做了什么,你是如何决定并意识到这一点的?
Uri Levine: 我们没有改变。回到 2010 年,我们只是做得不够好,我们仍然处于 product market fit 的迭代、迭代、再迭代之中。我们继续构建,继续迭代、迭代、再迭代,但是我们几乎耗尽了现金。然后我们迎来了幸运的一天,微软决定投资,高通也决定投资。
有趣的是,我和高通风险投资公司进行了这样的对话,他们告诉我他们不确定为什么这对他们很重要。而且我在某处看到他们没有在 Twitter 估值 5500 万美元时进行投资。这正是我告诉他们的话,“请允许我提醒您,你们没有在 Twitter 5500 万美元估值时投资。而这正是 Waze 现在的估值所在。”显然故事不同,但那是对错失的恐惧,FOMO 在起作用。
Lenny Rachitsky: 是的,我正想说,很好的 FOMO。
Uri Levine: 但结果是我们有足够的现金继续尝试,继续迭代、迭代、再迭代。最终我们取得了非常大的成功,所以那不是关于转型或改变方向,或者做任何戏剧性的事情。我们基本上是说,好吧,我们需要大幅降低成本。顺便说一句,我们做的只是降低了管理层的薪水,在某种程度上我想说人们甚至都不知道。
我们在管理层会议上决定了我们要这么做,如果被逼到绝境,那我们会采取下一步、下一步、再下一步的措施。但我们最终能够筹集到资金。所以从这个意义上说,差点死去只是一种心态,但我们并没有耗尽现金,我们就在那之前筹集了资金。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个故事实际上很好地说明了你说话时我在思考的一个问题,那就是 product market fit 危机往往也会因为投资者不想投资而导致现金危机。
Uri Levine: 在很多情况下,是的,在很多情况下。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你会遭受双重打击。
Uri Levine: 但在某种程度上我会说不是。Product market fit 基本上意味着你要回到原点。你的另一个选择,顺便说一句这也是合理的,那就是如果你无法说服现有投资者对公司进行再投资,以开启旅程的新阶段,这段新旅程,那么你知道该怎么办吗?关掉这家公司,然后重新创办一家完全做这件事的新公司。这对投资者来说是更大的威胁,因为他们不在这段新旅程之中。现在,他们可能会想说:“哦,公司拥有知识产权。”但专有技术是在人身上,由人拥有,而不是公司。
Lenny Rachitsky: 如何避免危机?这里的大部分建议都是,你遇到了危机,以下是应对方法。作为创始人,对于如何避免陷入危机,你有什么建议吗?
Uri Levine: 第一答案是不能。别担心,你一定会面临危机。即使你担心,你也依然会面临危机。第二点是,听着,如果你银行里有很多现金,应对危机会容易得多。所以如果你能筹集资金并保持较高的银行账户余额,这将帮助你度过下一个危机,但并不能避免它。因此,始终保持资金充裕是个好建议。但总的来说,听着,你无法为下一个危机做准备,因为你不知道下一个危机会是什么样。你可以假设会有下一个危机。相信我,一定会有下一个危机。而最重要的一点是,你要快速分析,然后快速行动。但你无法提前准备,因为你不知道它会从哪里来。这一点非常、非常重要。最好的准备就是手头有大量现金。总的来说我会说,如果你有大量现金,这会在很多方面帮到你。
Lenny Rachitsky: 当你说大量现金时,你有什么建议吗,比如通常建议有18个月的资金链,这方面你有什么给创始人的建议吗?
Uri Levine: 这真的取决于CEO们及其风险态度。我的一些CEO倾向于保持两到三年的消耗率。他们基本上会说:“这是我的舒适区。我知道如果需要我可以重新开始。我知道我可以承受重大危机。我知道如果我想,我可以走向新方向。我知道如果我想,我可以扩张并尝试完全不同的东西。”这并不一定是危机带来的结果。所以也许你基本上会说,这里有一个机会,而我有资金来做这件事。我的一般法则是18个月左右。你能接受12个月吗?是的,如果你是一个冒险者,一个更大的冒险者,那么12个月也能存活下来。但挑战在于,听着,如果你的时间较短,你就没有足够的时间去执行,你需要一直专注于筹资。而你本应专注于创造价值,而不仅仅是把现金引入公司。
Lenny Rachitsky: 是的。显然,筹集更多资金链的缺点是你让出了更多公司股份,但这始终是一种权衡,要卖出多少股份,要拿到多少钱。作为一名创始人,这真是一份苦差事。我要回到你说过的一句话,我在播客开头分享过,那就是创办初创公司是一段从一个危机走向下一个危机的旅程。
创业旅程的四个维度
Uri Levine: 是的。这要回到初创公司的其他三个维度,这是一段过山车般的旅程,起起落落又起起落落;这也是一段充满失败的旅程,因为我们试图建造以前没人做过的新东西,所以我们尝试了很多事物。为此,爱因斯坦曾说过,如果你没有失败,那是因为你以前没有尝试过新事物。这是一段漫长的旅程,一段非常漫长的旅程。特别是,最漫长的部分直到你弄清楚 product market fit 为止。现在我为此增加了第四个维度,那就是这是一段从一个危机走向下一个危机的旅程。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你创办了多少家公司,上次我了解是10家?
Uri Levine: 是的,大概,比那多一点。
Lenny Rachitsky: 比那多一点。
Uri Levine: 不是所有公司都会成功,但大多数都成功了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 以某种形式来说。而你就一直这么做。我这里听出来的意思是,你对危机贪得无厌。
Uri Levine: 我不是为了危机而来,我是为了创造价值而来。
价值创造的使命
Lenny Rachitsky: Uri,在我们结束之前,你还有什么其他想分享的、觉得可能对大家有帮助的内容吗?
Uri Levine: 我非常喜欢这期播客,真的非常喜欢。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我也是。
Uri Levine: 而且希望,在我的脑海中,这是作为老师的思维方式,我的命运在于创造价值,如果这期播客或者这本书,这一本书,能帮助人们取得更大的成功,那么我就完成了我的命运。
Lenny Rachitsky: Uri,我非常高兴能帮你实现你的命运。最后两个问题。大家在哪里可以找到这本书?什么时候发售?还有就是听众怎样才能帮到你?
Uri Levine: 这本书大概会在一个月后出版。目前已经在Amazon上开放预购,但之后会在全美和加拿大等各地的书店上架。
Lenny Rachitsky: 具体的出版日期是什么,因为我们录制这期节目的时候……也许它正好在我们发布这期节目时问世。所以日期是哪天?
Uri Levine: 我想是2月15日。
Lenny Rachitsky: 好的,太棒了。我想这期节目正好在那前后发布,所以时间点完美。
Uri Levine: 时间点完美。你可以在LinkedIn上关注我,或者去我的网站urilevine.com。而我希望你去读这本书。说到底,你一开始问过我想要达成什么目的?我是希望人们买这本书,还是读这本书?我告诉过你,“听着,我一生中试图做的一切,都是关于做好事与谋利。”所以买这本书是谋利的部分,而读这本书是做好事的部分。我希望你去读这本书。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这话说得太好了。Uri,非常感谢你来参加节目。
Uri Levine: 谢谢,非常感激。
Lenny Rachitsky: 大家再见。
术语表
| 原文 | 中文 |
|---|---|
| Albert Einstein | 爱因斯坦 |
| burn rate | 烧钱率 |
| cash crisis | 现金危机 |
| Dalton Caldwell | Dalton Caldwell |
| down round | 降价融资 |
| Drew Houston | Drew Houston |
| FairFly | FairFly |
| jobs to be done | jobs to be done(待完成的任务) |
| Khosla Ventures | Khosla Ventures |
| Lenny Rachitsky | Lenny Rachitsky |
| Oversee | Oversee |
| P&L | 损益表(P&L) |
| pay to play | 按比例跟投 |
| pivot | 转型(pivot) |
| product market fit | product market fit(产品市场契合度) |
| retention | 留存(retention) |
| run rate | 消耗率 |
| runway | 资金链(runway) |
| safe instruments | 未来股权简单协议工具 |
| serial entrepreneur | 连续创业者 |
| Silverstein | Silverstein |
| TomTom | TomTom |
| turn-by-turn navigation | 逐向导航 |
| Uri Levine | Uri Levine |
| Waze | Waze |
此文档由 AI 分片翻译(translate_long_document)