来自1000多家YC创业公司的经验教训:韧性、焦油坑式想法、转型及更多 | Dalton Caldwell(YC)
Lessons from 1,000+ YC startups: Resilience, tar pit ideas, pivoting, more | Dalton Caldwell (YC)
Quick Episode Preview
Dalton Caldwell: Seeing everything people apply to YC with. People all have the same idea.
Introducing the Guest
Lenny Rachitsky: One of these themes is simple, pragmatic advice. Sell shit, make money.
Back to Basics: Don’t Die
Dalton Caldwell: One of my mantras is just don’t die. Being coached and being reminded of the fundamentals and basics puts you in the right mindset.
Lenny Rachitsky: You have this concept of tarpit ideas.
Rational Quitting vs. Irrational Persistence
Dalton Caldwell: Seems like an unsolved problem. You’ll get all this positive feedback from the world and people have been starting that startup since the ‘90s.
Knowing When to Quit
Lenny Rachitsky: Recently you put out a request for startups, 20 categories of ideas and the YC wants to fund.
Dalton Caldwell: We’re trying to mix up some of the information diet about what kind of ideas people might be contemplating they are currently.
Stories from the W17 Batch
Lenny Rachitsky: A lot of people say you’re the king of the pivot.
Dalton Caldwell: A good pivot is like going home. It’s warmer, it’s closer to something that you’re an expert at.
What Makes a Good Pivot
Lenny Rachitsky: Are there other patterns you find across startups that do well?
Dalton Caldwell: There’s a lot of founders that come this close to it, all being over and through sheer will just keep it going.
Knowing When to Pivot
Lenny Rachitsky: Today my guest is Dalton Caldwell. Dalton is managing director and group partner at Y Combinator where he’s worked for over 10 years across 21 different YC batches, including working closely in the earliest days of Instacart, Retool, Brex, Deal, DoorDash, Webflow, Replit, Amplitude, Whatnot, Razorpay and 20 other Unicorns. Prior to Y Combinator, Dalton was the co-founder and CEO of imeem, which was acquired by Myspace, and Co-founder and CEO of App.net, which was an early ads-free competitor to Twitter. Dalton has seen and worked with more startups than nearly any human alive and in our conversation we get incredibly tactical and deep on the startup journey. Why it all comes down to simply not losing hope and not letting your startup die. What to do when your startup is struggling and how to know when it is time to give up. What makes a great pivot and signs it’s time to pivot. How to actually talk to customers.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. Thanks so much, Lenny. I’m really excited to talk to you today. It’s been great.
Walking Toward Mountains in the Desert
Lenny Rachitsky: So to prep for this podcast interview, I asked a bunch of founders that worked with you during YC what advice you shared with them along the journey that was most transformative to the way they think about product, the way they think about building their startup, the way they operate. And there’s a bunch of themes that emerged and I’m going to touch on a number of these themes. One of these themes is just how often you get to very simple pragmatic advice and how much of your message is just sell shit, make money, don’t run out of money. Why do you think founders need to hear this advice, which is seemingly simple and obvious?
Dalton Caldwell: Have you ever seen in NBA basketball or college basketball where they have the coach mic’d up and it shows what they’re actually saying in the huddle? You ever listen to what they actually are saying? They’re like, “Okay, we need to really focus and get the ball and win this game.” If you actually listen to what the greatest, smartest, most successful athletes are talking about, if you listen to what Tiger Woods is saying to his caddy, it all sounds like pretty mundane stuff. It’s not like what Tiger Woods is talking about with his caddy is some impossible to decipher jargon. It’s like, “Yeah, you really need to keep your head down on this one.” It’s things like that. And I think the reason this is true is that even if you’re in the best in the world, being coached and being reminded of the fundamentals and basics is what puts you in the right mindset and that you already know everything, right? You’re at the top of your game if you make it to the elite levels of being a startup founder or basically doing anything that’s really hard psychologically.
And so yeah, one of my mantras is just don’t die. Just keep your startup going. Just keep going. And I say that over and over again and honestly, that is often what people tell me is the most impactful thing I said. It’s not that I said some Ninja 5D chess mood that they never would’ve thought of before. It’s just the constant affirmation that continuing to keep going and doing high quality reps is the game.
Tar Pit Ideas
Lenny Rachitsky: I know that you’d give a talk that’s exactly called that, How Not To Die. Just to pull on this thread a little bit more, what is the general advice you share there for people that also don’t want to die?
Dalton Caldwell: The way to summarize that is if you look at all the startup stories that we have at YC and all the companies we funded over all the years, the underlying theme is that rationally the founder should have given up at some point. And so again, let’s talk about Airbnb, obviously something you know a lot about. They probably should have shut down three or four times before they got into YC. It objectively wasn’t working. They were basically ruining their lives, they were disappointing their parents, everything was wrong and it was a purely irrational act for the founders of Airbnb to keep working on their goofy startup. And again, that’s just one story. If you look across the portfolio of YC and non-YC companies, there has to be this irrational intention to keep going even when the world tells you it’s not working and you feel completely defeated. And you likely have to go through this many times and have these near-death experiences. And then you get lucky and then you look like an overnight success. Right?
And so that is the theme that is a summary and I provide lots of data and lots of stories there, but this is one of those things that the longer I have this job, the more I really, really believe this is true.
Why Investors Say No
Lenny Rachitsky: What’s your advice on the flip side of that where there’s a lot of startups, especially these days that are just super struggling, have been added for a while, there are mental health challenges, they’d be very sad if they had to shut this thing down, but often it’s probably the right move? What’s your advice to folks on deciding, okay, actually does make sense to give up in this case?
Market Size and TAM
Dalton Caldwell: I think this is a nuanced question and it’s hard for me to say something on a podcast that’ll actually be useful to people, but here’s a couple of thoughts. One, are you still having fun? Do you still enjoy doing what you’re doing? Do you enjoy spending time with your co-founders? Is this actually a fun thing you’re doing? And if the answer there is yes, I would tend to lean on the keep going. And then if it’s more of, wow, this is actually profoundly affecting me a negative way and my relationships with people in my life and I don’t really want to work with my co-founder anymore and things like that, then I would lean on the probably don’t do it anymore. Something that a lot of the folks that turn it around have in common is they actually do love their customers and they love their product.
And again, in the Airbnb story, again, you know it really well, but they really liked Airbnb and they liked working with each other and they liked the first host that they met and they knew all their names. You know what I’m saying? They loved their startup even though it was going bad. And so that’s to me a signal to keep going is that you really, really love what you’re doing and the people you’re doing it with and you love your customers and you love the problem. Versus where you’re just like, “Yeah, I could care less about any of those things. I’m just having a bad time.” Harder to be encouraging in that situation. And this is a fixable situation. You can make it more like the thing you love, can’t you?
The Founder’s Product Trap
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. This is actually very practical and great advice. This is something people can sense, “Okay, am I actually enjoying this? Do I want to keep doing this?” Versus, “Man, such a drag that I have to keep running this startup.” Is there anything you could say to folks that are just like, “I can’t stop because it’ll feel like I failed”?
Dalton Caldwell: If it’s really going poorly or if you’re having a really bad time, it’s no big deal. No one will remember that you shut down your company probably in 10 years or 20 years time. As long as you have integrity, as long as you’re an honest person, as long as you handle yourself well through good times and bad, people will remember you fondly. We have such a short life. There’s only so many years we get to have our careers, doing something that makes you miserable and the only reason you’re doing it is to avoid losing face and you know in your heart is not going to work, I don’t know, that seems like a pretty big opportunity cost on literally your life. Right?
Why Startups Fail
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, that’s exactly what I tell founders all the time. Life is short. There’s no need to force yourself to work on this. And I really like your point of just, is it still enjoyable? Do you like working with your founders? Following this thread of the struggle training a little bit more, one of the founders that worked with you during YC, his name is Danny Alberson, shared a story how during one of the batches of YC, one of the founders raised his hand and asked you, “What is wrong with our batch? Everyone is struggling, nobody is doing well. What have we done wrong?” And you shared a story about Brex that made everyone feel a little better. Does that ring a bell and if so, can you share that?
Dalton Caldwell: That definitely happened and I think the story is the story of the Winter-17 batch. And in the Winter-17 batch, I funded something like, I don’t know, 35, 40 companies in my group. So we subset them into groups. So it wasn’t a lot of companies and I knew all of them really well. And founders can’t help but compare themselves with other founders all the time about who’s doing well and who’s not doing well. And there was this one company in my group, this batch, it was called Vyond, that was their name at the time and it was a VR headset thing from these Stanford dropouts. And they basically showed up to group office hours and were just ashamed and they’re like, “Our idea is horrible. We might want to shut our company down. This is really embarrassing.” I had to beg them to not give up basically. And if you would’ve asked people in the batch what the worst company was, I think they would’ve said this one. Again, not because they were bad people but the founders themselves seemed despondent about how it was going.
And then funnily enough, this is in the story too, there was another startup also in my group called Cashew, which was this P2P Venmo, excuse me, in the UK and it was going really poorly also and not growing. And so if you just took this snapshot in time in the middle of the batch of who is definitely not doing well, it would clearly have been this Vyond company and this Cashew company. And so to cut to the chase, Vyond changed their idea and got really excited about it and renamed to Brex and this was Brex, which is like a decacorn. And Cashew changed their idea and renamed to something called Retool. And so out of my 35 companies, the ones that objectively seemed the worst in terms of everything is going bad, were by far, in retrospect, the most successful companies in that group.
How to Talk to Customers
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow. Wait, so you’re saying Brex was a VR headset company?
Dalton Caldwell: They thought it was really high-tech. They want to do a really high-tech startup, and so they’re like, “We’re going to build a new VR headset.” And yeah, they were good programmers, but they just didn’t know anything about optics or the things you might want to be an expert in to build a headset.
Successful Customer Conversations: Case Studies
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow, that’s an amazing story. It’s a great segue to just another theme that emerged from talking to founders about advice that you’ve shared. A lot of people tell me you are the king of the pivot of helping people figure out how to pivot. I’m curious just what you’ve seen makes a good pivot.
Dalton Caldwell: Usually a successful pivot gets warmer instead of colder from what you’re an expert at and somehow builds on what you learned on the prior idea. Right? And so in the case of Brex, it was they had worked on a FinTech company in Brazil when they were younger, and so I’m like, “You need to work more on the thing all about and not the thing nothing about.” And that was what worked for them. In the case of Retool, it was the same thing. They had built similar internal tools both at their internships as well as for Cashew. They had all these dashboards they built to operate their Venmo competitor. And so they knew a lot about what to build in the case of postprod, pivoting and through idea, they knew a lot about analytics and had strong opinions about it. And so it was much closer than what the original idea is.
In the case of Zip, Rujul knows a lot about a lot of things and he knew a lot about the crazy picture and process at Airbnb because he worked there. A good pivot is like going home. It’s warmer, it’s closer to something that you… And it never occurred to you that this thing you know all about would be a good idea or maybe you consciously are like, “I don’t want to work on this because burnt out on it.” Sometimes someone has to get over this barrier they have on why they don’t want to work on a certain idea.
Traits of Successful Founders
Lenny Rachitsky: These are amazing. I like how modest you are. I’m like, “Oh, here’s a big idea.” And then you just give very tactical items to look for. So essentially a good pivot in your experience is you’re getting closer, warmer towards something you have actual experience in, and two, it builds on something you’ve done. Can be essentially the core idea of a pivot, right? Where you’re…
Belief is Built Gradually
Dalton Caldwell: In the example of Segment, which is obviously a really big successful company, they started with something to tell your professor you were confused in class. It was software that they sold to universities. And then they ended up pivoting to something like a mixed panel competitor after two years and it’s because they learned about how analytics works running their first idea, okay? And then no one wanted to adopt their mixed panel competitor. And so they were like, “We should make this JavaScript thing that you embed on your website that can send events to multiple endpoints at the same time so that way people would be willing to try our mixed panel competitor side by side with mixed panels to show that it’s better.” And then they were like, “Oh yeah, no one actually wants that. They just want this JavaScript to send events to different locations.” And so there’s no way those founders could have started with the final idea. You get what I mean?
There was no universe where they would’ve made up the idea for Segment because they didn’t know anything about how analytics worked, but because they were grinding for multiple years and became experts on these things is a side effect of their earlier ideas. They ended up with really good unique insights.
Lenny Rachitsky: I think that’s a really important point there is you don’t need to necessarily have that experience before you start the company, could come from trying to build the company.
YC’s Request for Startups
Dalton Caldwell: Exactly.
Early Silicon Valley Memories
Lenny Rachitsky: A big question people are always wondering is, should I pivot? Is this the time to pivot? Should I keep trying this idea? What’s your advice there of just, okay, now you should really be thinking about something else?
Dalton Caldwell: Again, this is one of those where I like to give very bespoke nuanced advice on a case by case basis to the folks in YC. But again, just to give you a preview of how I would think about it, I would look at how many more ideas the founder has on how to make it grow. If it’s not going well and you’re out of ideas, that is usually a good time to pivot. But when you have half a dozen or a dozen really good growth ideas that you haven’t tried yet, try them. Right? Hey, give it a shot. Again, in the Airbnb story, right? They tried all sorts of stuff including cereal and conventions. They had a bunch of zany ideas on growth and they didn’t run out of them. And so I think when there’s still gas in the tank on an idea that might be a reason to stay the course. And when literally the founder is like, “Yeah, I don’t know, I guess maybe we should pay influencers or something.” When that’s the kind of ideas they’re coming up with, that might be a better sign to pivot.
Career Longevity and Personality Diversity
Lenny Rachitsky: That is incredibly helpful. Coming back to Zip real quick, they went through I think six different pivots before they landed on this idea that is now a billion-dollar business. Is there anything from that specific journey that you found really interesting? Because they went in so many different directions like accounting, marketplaces and-
MySpace, Instagram, and Serendipity
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. I think in the example of the Zip founders, they were both such great experts and I knew Rujul really well. He actually worked with me at YC as a visiting partner. And so I was really close to Rujul and he had done this marketplace called FlightCar when he was younger, which was raised a series B, it didn’t work out, but it was a really cool company. And I had a lot of confidence in his competence on running a business and executing fast and just having great instincts. He really knows the fundamentals and the problem was they weren’t as clear on what market to go into, is still with me. And so I actually suggested to do something in their case, again, this is very bespoke, but my suggestion was to start by looking at what companies are publicly traded and/or owned by private equity that are large and that also are hated by their customers, and to try to intentionally find where there’s a knowable big market within incumbent combined with the software is horrible.
And they did that. They basically found out about all this procurement software and what the state of the art was and that was the prompt. Again, maybe he told you this, that was basically the process.
Contrarian Corner: No Early Growth Hacking
Lenny Rachitsky: He did tell me that. I love that example and piece of advice so much. I don’t know why more people don’t do this. Basically find a large incumbent with very low NPS and try to disrupt them. So straightforward.
Getting Your First Users
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I mean, I can’t promise that works for everyone, but again, in the very bespoke situation with Rujul, it worked really well because he actually knew exactly once he locked in on that prompt, oh man, he ran a masterclass. They did an A-plus job, was really good.
Lenny Rachitsky: Also Lou, his co-founder, credit to him too.
Failure Corner: Don’t Let Failure Define You
Dalton Caldwell: Of course. Sorry. Yeah. We got to give Lou the shout-out. Lou did an amazing job. I just didn’t know Lou as well before he did YC. But you’re right, we got to give Lou the credit.
Lenny Rachitsky: I was watching your chat with Michael Seibel talking about pivots and either you or he used this phrase of you want to move towards the mountains in the desert to find the gold of a new startup idea versus the middle of the city. You’re unlikely to find gold in the middle of San Francisco. Is there anything along those lines that you can share?
Final Advice: Start With Customer Validation
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I think maybe this pertains into what we see from applications and interviews, which is from where I sit seeing everything people apply to YC with and what they interview with and whatnot. People all have the same idea. Basically imagine this, imagine your information consumption where you’re listening to the same podcast, wink, wink, you’re reading the same people on Twitter, you’re reading the same blog post. Basically you have the same information diet of all these other founders and you’re friends with all the same people. Does it seem surprising then that you would all end up with similar startup ideas or similar philosophies on what makes a good startup idea? Of course you are. So this is the metaphor on cities is that if you just are following the same principles and have the same information flow into your brain, you’re going to come up with the same ideas with everybody else.
And so the prompt here is to try to go more off the beaten path either from your personal experience, like in the case of Brex and Retool or Whatnot. There was no one else trying to build marketplaces for Funko Pops. Go deeper in your own personal interests or experience to find something that just your exact peer wouldn’t come up with in exactly the same way. And again, the Zip example, I don’t think other people were trying to build wonky procurement software. That was not an idea that we saw much of. And so again, the prompt to people is try to mix up what your information diet is or what areas of expertise you have and mine that well, versus just having all the same thoughts as everybody else. And so again, let me give you one more example.
A few years ago, startups around trucking were super new and fresh because no one was doing them and they worked really well and then it became completely conventional wisdom to do trucking related startups. I’m not trying to diss anyone, but you’ll see things that become fashionable really quickly because someone found success in this unfashionable space and then it becomes fashionable.
Rapid Fire Questions
Lenny Rachitsky: This is a good segue to something I definitely want to spend time on, which is you have this concept of tarpit ideas, which are essentially ideas people all gravitate towards and get stuck in and either pivot into and then can’t pivot out of or try to pivot out of. And essentially it’s just consistently bad startup ideas that people continue to try to start. Can you just talk about this and then what is examples of just bad startup ideas that people should stop trying to start?
Dalton Caldwell: For people that are familiar with this terminology from us, sometimes they get defensive and don’t get what we were saying. By definition it is only a tarpit if it seems like it’s not. If it’s just a regular idea that is hard, that is not a tarpit. The weird aspect of what we call a tarpit idea is an idea that a lot of people come up with and then it seems like an unsolved problem and you get lots of positive feedback for. Right? And you have a really good set of arguments that it’s a really good startup idea. And that’s different than a bad startup idea. Do you get what I’m trying to say? A bad startup idea is, I don’t know, something that is obviously bad or something where you just can’t get any positive feedback on. But some of the most common tarpit would be something like building an app to coordinate with your friends to decide where to go out at night or where to meet up with people, which is really, it’s coming from a good place. It’s a good idea.
If you ask your friends, “Hey, would you like an app for us to coordinate to hang out more so we can be friends?” They’re like, “Yeah, I would love that.” You’ll get all this positive feedback from the world. And man, people have been starting that startup since the ’90s and so you can validate it. Part of being a true tarpit is that you can get good initial validation. Do you get what I mean? And so anyway. And honestly I worked on tarpit ideas myself as a founder, which is a music discovery. This is something I did in my first startup. Music startups are hard and trying to be like, “Oh, we’re going to fix music discovery.” This was classic things where you can get lots of positive feedback and even get users to work on those things, but there are aspects of it that make it a very hard idea. So does that make sense?
Favorite Movies and TV Shows
Lenny Rachitsky: Absolutely. I’m also guilty of this. I had this startup called Localmind that allowed you to talk to people, check-in in various locations around the city, on Foursquare and Google back in the day and asked them, “How’s it going?” And everyone when they used it, they’re like, “Holy shit, this is the most incredible thing I’ve ever seen. I could see what’s happening at this bar that I’m about to go to.” And then they never use it again.
Dalton Caldwell: Do you remember when Foursquare clones was all anyone worked on for-
How to Interview Founders
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah.
Dalton Caldwell: Years?
Favorite Products Right Now
Lenny Rachitsky: They told us Foursquare is going to own this. There’s no way this idea you’re building is going to be its own thing. And now, yeah, Foursquare is a B2B business.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. And all the Foursquare clones, if they didn’t pivot out of doing what they’re doing, wouldn’t have worked. So anyway, that’s a tarpit, is just something that’s super appealing and a lot of people do it. And then you can get validation and that’s why is a tarpit, is it draws you in and you get stuck because it seems like it’s a good idea and you get all this positive feedback.
Guiding Life Principles
Lenny Rachitsky: Along these lines, I was talking to a founder recently and she’s asking me, “What causes an investor to say no to you when you’re trying to raise money from them?” And I know every investor has a very different perspective on what turns them off to a startup, but is there anything that you find is just like, here, if you do these things, investors will say no.
Top Podcast Recommendations
Dalton Caldwell: Maybe my best advice here is for founders to put themselves in the shoes of investors and just imagine what their life is like and how if you are in their shoes you would make decisions. And so given this framework, a lot of investors just don’t make that many investments and as per what we talked about earlier, life is short. And so there’s lots of things that an investor that in their hearts thinks it is pretty good and they’re like, “Oh, I like this person and I like their pitch, but I only am going to do a few investments. And so even though I really like a lot about this, I’m going to say no.” And I often think that founders think that there’s some secret truth that’s being held from them on why someone says no or they want more feedback. “I need feedback.” That’s like, well, the feedback is we didn’t want to invest and it really is just that.
And so I think if you put yourself in the shoes of an investor of like, “Hey, I only could do a few of these a year, I have very limited budget.” They’re really just trying to pick the things that they’re either personally most excited about or things that they think can be truly phenomenally big in some way. Or again, I know you do investments too, so it’s that you only get so many shots as an investor. And so anything that doesn’t seem like this is the one, this is the one I want to do is a no. And that that’s actually why they’re saying no versus, “Oh, you had a bad zoom setup or something. Oh, we didn’t like what color your shirt was. We said no.” I don’t think that’s how this actually works.
Closing the Episode
Lenny Rachitsky: I think that’s such a good piece of advice that it’s not necessarily they don’t believe in what you’re doing, it’s they have better options and they’re waiting for something that hits the higher bar because they have a lot of options.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. Because again, if you ask someone or put yourself in the investor’s shoes, wouldn’t you be making decisions the same way? Usually founders are like, “Yeah.” If you do that exercise, a lot of this starts to make way more sense.
Lenny Rachitsky: Specifically when you’re evaluating startups. I wasn’t going to go into this, but I think it might be interesting, is market size. How do you think about the importance of large TAM as an investor YC?
Dalton Caldwell: I think it really depends on what stage you’re investing at and it’s absolutely critical the later stage you get. Right? If you’re going to invest in a very high valuation, it is really important. The earlier you go, the less it matters. And some of the most phenomenally good startups, if you were really pedantic about it, the TAM would be tiny. The TAM of Uber would be nothing, right? The TAM of Airbnb would’ve been nothing. TI funded Razorpay, which is I think the largest payment processor in India, and the TAM of that was tiny because no one was using credit cards in 2015 in India. So you had to believe that the size of the credit card industry in India would 100X. Well, guess what happened? You know what I’m saying? So I’m not saying that having a large market someday doesn’t matter, of course it does eventually. But trying to be super pedantic about market size when it’s a pre-seed company or someone applying to YC, it’s just not something I’d put a lot of thought.
And again, Whatnot. What’s the TAM of the collectible Funko Pop industry? I don’t know. I don’t think it’s that big, man. I don’t know if you did that analysis when you invested, but I think is pretty small, but I wasn’t worried about it. That was the last thing I was worried about.
Lenny Rachitsky: It makes so much sense that at YC you don’t think about it that much because of, as you said, many startups pivot anyway. So if you like the team-
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. And I’m not saying it’s not important, it’s not… And the things I’m worried about is like, hey, how do you get users? Hey, how do you grow? Things like that. Are you making something people want? Those are the things I’m really worried about as opposed to, ooh, I ran an Excel model and I’m worried this might not be a big enough TAM. That’s not the top of my list.
Lenny Rachitsky: I think it’s important to acknowledge that a lot of investors are very… YC I think is unique in a lot of ways where you invest very early and you help people through this journey. A lot of investors are very focused on TAM, so you may find you’re getting turned down because they don’t think there’s a big enough market for you to build a big business, right?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. Or that you’re asking them to believe a crazy leap of faith that, again, they could say, “Well, it’s theoretically possible you’ll be able to sell more than Funko Pops, and I understand that that is your pitch, but I have other opportunities that are less risky.” You know what I’m saying? A lot of founders make the argument that the TAM is big, and you can say, “Wow, that’s a really interesting argument and I’m not going to argue with you about it, but no, I’m not going to…” And so again, it’s hard to get someone to engage in a debate about TAM even if you have some proof points. Ultimately, a lot of investors just don’t like that risk. Fair enough.
Lenny Rachitsky: Fair enough. Going in a slightly different direction. So someone else that worked with you, another Lenny, Lenny Bogdonoff who started a company called Milk, and then he was head of growth at OpenAI for a bit. He asked me to ask you about things product leaders and startups should watch out for. Does that ring a bell?
Dalton Caldwell: I don’t remember the specific office hours, but I understand the question and I of course remember Lenny. I think that the advice that he’s referencing here is just how important it is to not overdelegate and for the founders to stay close to things, as well as watch out for the trap of hiring super senior people with fancy resumes, really early in a startup. I think that’s what he’s referencing there. And again, this is definitely one of those very basic things that we find ourselves repeating a lot where they’re like, “Yeah, yeah, I get it. Don’t overdelegate. We get it, Dalton.” And then two years later they’re like, “Wow, we overdelegated. We need to go clean that up.” So that is probably the best product advice. And the folks that are really great at product, the founders that are always deeply in the weeds on product and still care a lot and are still talking to customers, no matter how late stage it gets, again, I’m sure you experienced this in Airbnb culture, but you can’t delegate caring about your users and you can’t delegate caring that the product is great. That is so critical.
Lenny Rachitsky: To make this even more real, what is it that you see them do? It’s they hire a PM too early, they hire a senior salesperson too early, what are the-
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I think that you get pushed often by investors to hire executives or to scale the team or you raise all this money, you got to spend it, you got to show you’re serious about growth and building a world-class organization, whatever, stuff like that. And so you end up with super nice people with super shiny resumes from big tech companies. “Oh wow, they did this amazing thing at Google.” And then they hire them and then you wake up one day and you’re like, “Oh wow, everything went wrong.” It’s not really anyone’s fault, it’s just that you took your eye off the ball and this is what happens to first-time founders a lot.
Lenny Rachitsky: How do you as a founder then have time to do all these things? Is there any guidance you give just like don’t overdelegate, don’t over hire? But also, you have 24 hours in a day? Is it just find the time, prioritize well, or is there more to it?
Dalton Caldwell: I think if you just care a lot about your customers and you care a lot about the product, your instincts are pretty good on what to spend time on. And so for example, spending tons and tons of time hanging out with investors and networking, it’s probably the thing that I would be cutting. You know what I’m saying? It’s what we talked about earlier. If you really love what you’re doing, no one needs to tell you how to reprioritize your time. Your intuition will be correct on what you should be spending all your time on, which is being obsessed with product.
Lenny Rachitsky:
Plus, you can access hundreds of pressure-tested templates for everything from roadmap strategy to final decision-making to PRDs. If you want a platform that empowers your team to strategize, plan and track goals together, you can get started with Coda today for free. And if you want to see for yourself why product teams at high-growth companies like Pinterest, Figma and Qualtrics run on Coda, take advantage of this special limited-time offer just for startups. Head over to Coda.io/Lenny to sign up and get 1,000 in credit. Coda dot I-O slash Lenny. Okay, so one of your current colleagues, not former colleagues, Gustav, was on the podcast previously. His episode is, I think, the fourth most popular episode of all time currently, so no pressure.
Dalton Caldwell: Oh, Cool. Okay. I don’t know if I can feed with that. All right.
Lenny Rachitsky: I think you can. So I asked him what is often the most common reason a startup fails? And his answer was they don’t talk to customers, they don’t find product market fit. They nothing else matters if they can’t do that. And so his advice is talk to customers more often. So two questions here. First of all, just is there anything else you would add to why do startups fail? I know we talked about some of these already, but just what comes to mind there?
Dalton Caldwell: I completely agree with what Gustav said, but to look at this from a different frame, I think is that the founders lose hope. And when you and your heart is like, “Yeah, we’re failing.” I can see it when I’m meeting with a founder, when they resign themselves that they’re failing versus. First is when like, “We got one more move in us. We got one more try.” You can see in their eyes when they feel like there’s more ideas or there’s some last ditch Hail Mary thing. It doesn’t always work, but it’s almost like you have to not accept that you’re going to fail. And as long as you don’t accept that that’s going to happen, there’s usually a lot more moves you can try to save the company. Maybe it’s to get profitable, maybe it’s to do some other zany thing, maybe it’s to launch a new product.
And so it’s pretty rare, I would argue, that the cause of death is that they had lots of firepower and they were feeling really positive and they just ran out of money. That’s actually more rare than founders think. It’s much more common that they still have some money left. I’m not saying a lot, but some money and they’re just like, “Yeah, I’m done. I’m out of ideas. I don’t want to do this anymore.” And again, fair enough. But do you get what I’m saying? I think founders are afraid that they’re going to run out of money and that’s why they’re going to shut down. And it’s way more common that their idea doesn’t work and they have a big fight with their co-founder, and then they can’t agree on what to work on, and then they just like, “I don’t want to do this anymore.” And they shut down. That is the most common cause of death, is something that sounds like that story.
Lenny Rachitsky: That is so interesting. And again, this comes back to your core advice. Don’t die. Just don’t die. We talked about this already of just sometimes it’s actually okay to die. And I guess just to refresh that lesson is if you’re not having fun anymore, maybe it’s okay-
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, you’re out of ideas. You’re like, “I’m done.” If in your heart that you’re done, you don’t have to keep going through the motions. No one benefits.
Lenny Rachitsky: And you’ve also seen enough cases now, you’ve shared a few of these where all hope was potentially lost, but they kept going and then they turned into a huge success story. And I think most people don’t see those examples. I guess is there anything you can share just how often that happens, how often you see that turn around?
Dalton Caldwell: I would argue that if we define it as the company had a near death experience where it was going poorly and the founders seriously wondered if it was all going to be over, a hundred percent of the time people go through that where the founder’s like, “Yeah, I guess we’re done. I guess we should pack it in.” And at least you feel that way at some point in your startup journey, man, everyone goes through that. And again, there’s gradations, people that actually truly got down to very, very hard situations. It’s still a high percentage, maybe 50%. I mean, you can ask founders, there’s a lot of founders that come this close to it all being over and through sheer will just keep it going.
Lenny Rachitsky: That is really empowering, I imagine, for many founders hearing this of just knowing every single founder goes through, okay, I think it’s actually over. Following on this real quick, the advice that Gustav shared, which is about talking to customers. I’m just going to keep trying to pull wisdom out of your head. Do you have any advice for just how to effectively talk to customers? We’re always hearing, “Talk to customers. Build things they want.” Easier said than done. You get a lot of asks. You get one customer asking for a lot of stuff. There’s a big company that’s like, “Build this thing, we’ll pay a million dollars.” Just do you have general guidance of just what to pay attention to and what to build versus avoid?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I think when I talked to aspiring founders about this a lot, they’re like, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, I talked to customers. We get it. Cool.” And I’m like, “Cool. Well, how many customers do you talk to?” And they’re like, “Well.” And they get really quiet. And so I think this is one of those things like, hey, you should have a healthy diet and exercise every day or whatever, where people know it and that doesn’t mean they do it. And so I think to start with, you have to get out in the world and talk to people in person. And you can’t just hide behind your keyboard and call that talking to customers. Right? I think a lot of folks, the inclinations are to build a landing page and buy some Instagram ads and try to get people to sign up for something. And again, maybe that’s something, but I think a lot of the reason people do that is they’re just shy and they don’t want to put themselves out there because it’s a little awkward to go talk to people.
And you have to set yourself up to go out in the physical world, get people to meet with you, get them to take you seriously, show them a product you’re building. And so again, it’d be very tactical here. You can do a self-assessment. In the past month, how many in-person physical meetings have I had with potential customers? Maybe you’ve done a lot, I don’t know, listener, maybe you have, but it’s shocking how many companies I talk to, they’re like, “Well, we’re focused on raising our pre-seed round before we talk to customers.” Things like that. And again, I think the core, core thing going on is just social anxiety and looking stupid. And I think you just got to get past that. You just got to start doing it until it doesn’t feel bad anymore. Think about how stupid the Airbnb founders must have felt. They were like, “Hey, you should rent out your house and I’m going to come and sleep in your house, and here’s an airbag.”
The whole thing is a little awkward, right? So you got power through the awkwardness of talking to people, and once you start doing it’s actually fun. And so once you get used to overcoming this awkwardness, I think people do much better at talking to customers.
Lenny Rachitsky: When someone does this self-evaluation, is there a heuristic that tells you this is enough? What do you look for? Is there a number? How many per week? How many per month?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I don’t know if I know a good number. I think it’s look at your calendar and there should be 20 or 30% of your time that the calendar says something like customer meeting, customer call, meeting with who, meeting with this person. And when the calendar is not that or it’s all… Again, what you’re actually doing is just buying ads to try to validate your idea, I don’t think that’s talking to customers. I think that’s something else.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s an awesome heuristic. So roughly fifth of your time at least should be talking to customers.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. And again, it depends on the idea space you’re working on. Some are more, some are less. So yeah, it should be a fair amount of time. And nothing substitutes for an actual conversation versus just staring at analytics dashboards.
Lenny Rachitsky: Makes so much sense. So the Airbnb is a classic example of they went to New York and talked to their host and things like that. Is there another startup that comes to mind that did this really well, that found just a really cool way and hustle to talk to customers?
Dalton Caldwell: Well, again, some of the companies we talked about, I mean, for Brex, they were just talking to other people in their batch and that worked extremely well. Same with Retool is they just sold it inside of the YC network. I think with Zip, they were just beasts at getting companies on calls with them to ask them about procurement. And I think they had way more than 20% of their time. When you looked at their calendars, oh man, they were talking to customers a lot to build their first product and pre-selling it before they built it. Same with PostHog I guess that’s a different go to market. They launched this open source thing to start with and their calendars are filled with people that were trying to implement the first open source version of PostHog or were so excited about it.
And people on Hacker News were excited about it and they had this huge influx of people that were excited that PostHog existed and had lots of feedback and web reports. It wasn’t always positive, but they never lacked for people that wanted to talk to them once they launched that, which was very helpful.
Lenny Rachitsky: On Zip, I actually have a lot of their story in one of my series on how to build a B2B startup. And what they did actually, as you know, is they just called, DMed people on LinkedIn and ask them for advice on, “Hey, we’re trying to understand how you enjoy your current procurement products.” And then they ended up being early beta testers. And I think they did hundreds of these. They just-
Dalton Caldwell: Oh, yeah, no, it was a numbers game. They were just grinding at this. And so yeah, that was very good.
Lenny Rachitsky: The other classic YC stories, the Collison Collision, I think it’s called or the-
Dalton Caldwell: Collison Install.
Lenny Rachitsky: Oh, Collison Install. Okay. Can you tell that story briefly?
Dalton Caldwell: The Collison Install is what often happens with customers, is that they say, “Yes, I want you buy your product.” And then they do not implement it, they just go quiet. There’s no implementation and this is very bad if you’re selling software to someone. If they never implement it, they’re going to churn. You basically failed on the one yard line, okay? And so they developed this tactic to be like, “Oh, well, I’m at the neighborhood, I’ll drop by your office to help you implement Stripe and just create…” Again, it was a little awkward like we talked about earlier, but you would be like, “Yeah. I’m in the neighborhood. How about I drop by?” And then they would show up and they’d be like, “Cool, cool. Can pull up your text editor?” “Oh yeah, cool. All right.” “Hey, can I drive? Can I have the keyboard?”
And they would just install Stripe into the customer’s website, smiling, being charming guys. And they’d be like, “Oh, that’s cool. Okay. Well, can we roll out the website now?” And they basically would not go away until you finish the implementation of Stripe. And again, it was actually helpful because they were doing all this white glove service to get it implemented. That was very effective. And I think the takeaway from that story is even when you get a yes, you’re not actually done with sales. You have to finish the last mile to get the thing implemented. And they were very good at that.
Lenny Rachitsky: That was an incredible story. And now they’re, I don’t know, a hundred billion in business and that’s how it all begins.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. I was an early Stripe customer at my startup and yeah, Patrick would… We used Google Talk at the time. Patrick would be sending me messages on a weekly basis just checking in. And so again, it’s funny how successful these folks get, but yeah, Patrick was very hands-on with all of his customers and was extremely available. I can say that because I was one of them. Yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky: And I’m sure he had social anxiety going through all that. That wasn’t a comfortable thing to do, just keep pushing people to install your software and deploy.
Dalton Caldwell: Oh, surely not. If you want your startup to work, this is just what you got to do. Comes with the territory.
Lenny Rachitsky: This is going to be just a way broad question and I don’t know if you’ll have an answer, but just are there other just patterns you find across startups that do well? This is maybe the $64 million question of just founders and what they do that ends up leading to success.
Dalton Caldwell: I don’t think personality types matter as much. I’ve seen very quiet people, very extroverted people. You name it. I’ve seen all sorts of personality types. So for me personally, I don’t think there’s a personality type that people should copy and be like, “I need to be like this person. I need to be Steve Jobs. I need to be Elon.” I don’t really believe in that because there’s just so much variation. Tony from DoorDash is so different than a lot of folks, and Rujul is so different and Grant from Whatnot. These are all very, very different people. Patrick is a different kind of person. Ryan from Flexport. These are just very different personality types. But the thing that I would argue folks that build really big companies have in common is they just really want it and they really believe in themselves and they really believe they can make it work. And that they’re somehow deep in their internal psyche, there’s something that’s like, “I’m the one and I won’t accept this not working.”
And even though objectively there’s all this data coming in, this isn’t working, this is bad. My employees want to quit, my executives want to quit. Whatever it is. Somewhere deep down in there, they’re like, “Oh yeah, I’m going to make this work. This company is going to be big.” And they just believe. And it’s almost like that internal gravitational force inside of them is so large, it warps the world to bend to that will. And people start to believe it because they believe it so much and they convince their employees to believe in and they convince everyone around them that this is going to happen for them. And so again, this is not a personality trait. I’m arguing this is a core belief.
Lenny Rachitsky: So interesting. And it connects so much to what we’ve been talking about. Just don’t die. Don’t lose hope in what you’re working on. A founder hearing this might feel like, “Man, I don’t know if I’m so convinced this is going to work.” In your experience, how much of this is internally, they’re so certain and convinced versus externally, they need to show this confidence?
Dalton Caldwell: Well, I think it’s internally they’re convinced. Yeah, I’m not sure it’s external. But, and this is the big but, no one has this at the early stages when they don’t have a good idea and they don’t have customers and it’s objectively not working. And so again, I know a lot of founders are like, “Well, I don’t feel that way. Oh no, maybe I’m an imposter and I shouldn’t do a startup.” Well, of course you don’t feel that way if you haven’t talked to any customers and haven’t built a product. But what usually happens is you pivot to a good idea where you start with a good idea that you care about and customers you care about and you launch it. And the better the product does, the more obsessed you get with your own company.
I think in the case of Stripe, I don’t want to tell Patrick’s story for him, but I recall him saying at some point he wasn’t as sure that Stripe was going to work until they were a year or two in. And then once it started working and then they really believed in it. But it wasn’t like he woke up one day and like, “Stripe is the thing. It’s going to work.” I think you build conviction and you have this network effect virtual cycle where you get work conviction. The more customers reflect back to you and data reflects back to you that you’re on the right track.
Lenny Rachitsky: This is exactly what Scott Belsky shared in our episode when I asked him when to pivot is, do you have more conviction this is going to work or less conviction over time? And so I like that connection we just made there. Okay, so we’ve talked about all these way startups fail, bad ideas, tarpit ideas. I want to go to the flip side and talk about good startup ideas. So recently you put out a request for startups, which is essentially 20 categories of ideas that you want to fund, that YC wants to fund. Can you share some of these ideas that you’re excited about? And basically you’re looking to fund and looking for founders to work on.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah. And so we put out the request for startups just to inspire people to maybe apply with ideas that aren’t the ones that we always see. It’s not prescriptive like we will only fund ideas on this list. It is not that at all. Remember what I talked about earlier with information diet? We’re trying to mix up some of the information diet about what kind of ideas people might be contemplating. There aren’t currently. And so a couple of the ones that we put out there, I made one about ERPs which is enterprise resource planning software. And I did that because I get so few applications on that and they’re usually pretty good. And I just would love to see more people look at that and learn about what the ERPs are, just because it’s so rare that people apply with that. And now I have a feeling we’re going to see a lot more applications working on that. And so it worked as intended, which is to introduce this idea space to founders that didn’t even know what an ERP was. Now they’ll go learn about it.
Another one is we’d like to fund open source companies. And so that’s one of the RFSs where if more people apply to YC with open ideas, I think we’d be pretty excited about that. Maybe founders didn’t realize that that would be something we want to fund. Same with space companies. Yeah, we’ve had a lot of success with space companies. Several of the folks that are actually going to space right now that aren’t SpaceX or YC companies. And so I think sometimes founders feel like those ideas are too bold and ambitious, but no, I’d love if more people apply with space companies. And so think about it that way, where we’re trying to put out of idea spaces that perhaps someone subconsciously filtered out as what might be a good startup idea. And hopefully that creates a new set of startup ideation for the person.
Lenny Rachitsky: And we’re going to link to this page in the show notes for folks that want to explore. I’ll give a couple more real quick. A way to end cancer, no big deal. Spatial computing, new defense technology, bringing manufacturing back to America. So a lot of hard science, deep tech stuff, which is maybe a new… I don’t know. I imagine you guys have invested this in the past, but it feels like trend.
Dalton Caldwell: We totally have, right? So these aren’t like, “Oh, we’ve never invested in these before.” It’s more of like, “Hey, it’d be cool if we saw more applications along these lines.” It would be nice because it currently feels a little bit under… There could be more startups working on this stuff.
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, instead of the tarpit ideas. A couple more real quick, better enterprise glue.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I like that idea.
Lenny Rachitsky: Say more about that. What does that look like?
Dalton Caldwell: The software to connect all these business systems is usually pretty brittle and janky, and there’s been lots of good startups founded to solve this problem. I think there’s still a lot more room for improvement and likely LLMs will improve. We’ll probably be able to create better and better glue so all sorts of software systems can talk to each other. And so again, very broad idea. But yeah, I think we’ll see a lot of very successful companies where that’s the kernel of the idea they start with.
Lenny Rachitsky: Awesome. One last one. Small fine tune models as an alternative to gigantic generic ones. Yeah. Sweet. And so we’ll include this link in the show notes and folks can click on each of these and there’s a lot more explanation of what it is you’re thinking about there. Awesome. Okay, just a couple more questions.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky: One is just your background. So from what I’ve read, in the early 2000s, you were basically hanging out with some of the biggest success stories of today. Folks like Zuck and Reid Hoffman, Sam Altman, Elon, Sean Parker. This is before they really became anyone and they all became very successful. I’m curious just looking back at that, what you’ve noticed is consistent across these folks that ended up being really successful over time.
Dalton Caldwell: Back in 2003, being in Silicon Valley and being interested in startups, it was a really small space. There just weren’t that many people that were into this stuff. And so I remember I cold emailed Reid Hoffman when LinkedIn was 12 employees and he just responded and he’s like, “Oh, let’s have lunch.” He was just a guy and everyone else that was doing, I guess you could call it social networking, that was the people that I knew. There was a few conferences you would go to and there’d be 30 people there. It reminds me of stories about the Homebrew Computer Club. I’m not saying this is as cool. But when I read stories about what it was like when the Homebrew Computer Club existed, it was a very small number of people that all knew each other that were real weirdo outsiders that were into this stuff, okay? And so that’s what in the post.com boom Bay Area startup scene, that’s legitimately what it felt like.
And so I didn’t think a lot about the personality traits of these people. Again, they were all pretty different people, but what they had in common is the folks that are now the really big names just had a lot of staying power. Right? So when I met Sam, he had dropped out of Stanford to work on Loot, which is hilariously a way to find people around you to hang out with. An interesting theme here, huh? He was cool. He was this really young guy and he just did that. It wasn’t huge. And then he got into other stuff and ended up working at YC, ended up getting involved in hard tech and has now reinvented himself as the big mind behind AI, which again, awesome. But if I think about who he was back in the day, yeah, he was a 23-year-old working on a thing for feature phones to find friends in your neighborhood.
Their customer was Boost Mobile. I bet you could go find the commercials for Loot that Boost Mobile put out on YouTube. Those are actually pretty funny. Have you seen those commercials?
Lenny Rachitsky: No, but I’m going to go check them out.
Dalton Caldwell: Anyway, it’s pretty funny. So yeah, that’s the real story. And then, yeah, I remember I was in downtown Palo Alto at the time, and some of the folks I was friends with were friends with Sean Parker, and this was actually before Sean Parker went to Facebook. He was part of Napster. And so one of my friends was like, “Oh, we need to get my friend a ride to the airport.” And so I ended up giving Sean Parker a ride to the Oakland Airport. And again, what was he like? I don’t know. He just basically sat in the back seat on the phone the whole time. But again, my point is I wasn’t like, “Wow, these are going to be really big successful people that one day will be important in the world.” It just felt like a bunch of nerds that really liked the internet and computers, doing things that they were interested in and were just obsessed with this.
They weren’t like, “Gee, should I move to New York?” Or, “Maybe I should go to law school.” It was people that were very bought in to staying working on internet companies. And so you’ll see these folks just reinvent themselves multiple eras, right? Okay, like Reid Hoffman, he worked at PayPal, right? And then he did LinkedIn and then he was a VC. He’s had all these different eras where it’s the same person, but it’s almost like a different figure, right?
Lenny Rachitsky: There’s a lot of interesting lessons there. One is that your career is long and you’ll have the opportunity to do many things and you can continue to shift. In my example, this is my fourth career, I realized. I was an engineer, then a founder, then a product manager, now whatever this job is. And I think that’s really common. I think the other, again, is the personality types point, which I didn’t comment on, but I think it’s so important that you can be super introverted and be super successful. You can be super extroverted and be very successful. And I think the key there is use your skills and strengths to achieve the same things. You don’t have to be the amazing presenter on Steve Jobs type stage. You can do the same thing in a different way. And then the other point there is, again, coming back to you just need to be really excited and enjoy the work you’re doing because that’ll drive you forward and make you be successful. So I like that the story is a summary of so many of the things you’ve shared so far.
There’s other two other fun stories, maybe pick one. The other one is you sold your startup to MySpace and your job was basically to save MySpace. And then the other is you’re the reason Andreessen Horowitz missed out on Instagram and couldn’t invest. So which of those would you want to share?
Dalton Caldwell: Well, it’s the same story. And the way that it’s the same story is my second company… Basically, I sold my first company to MySpace. It was the music company that I worked on. And they recruited a new CEO who was formerly the COO of Facebook called Owen Van Natta. So again, hilariously part of the same little circle of people. And Owen was like, “Okay, we need to fix MySpace. Rupert Murdoch’s got the juice. He wants me to fix it. We’re going to do it. So come up with some ideas.” And the best idea that I could come up with at the time was doing something around mobile photo sharing, something like Twitter, but for photos. And I figured with MySpace’s user base, that would work pretty well. This was in 2010, so it was right as the App Store was getting big, and I had a lot of success in the App Store with imeem. It was one of the top downloaded music apps. And so I was like, “Wow, the App Store was really good.” And I was really into apps being the thing.
And at this time, Facebook was a little early on. They were trying to do cross-platform mobile apps, if you recall. And their apps were not great. This was, again, ancient history. So that was my plan. And then immediately Owen Van Natta was fired, and so I didn’t even really get onboarded. And so I just left. I think I worked in MySpace for a month because the person that acquired my company got fired and I think the whole word chart got fired. I didn’t even know who to talk to. It was really great. It was a great experience. You know what I’m saying? I wasn’t really sure who my point of contact was at that point. I don’t think they knew either. It was just a mess.
Lenny Rachitsky: Just message Tom.
Dalton Caldwell: No, no. He was long gone. Seriously. I know you’re kidding. But no, literally, I don’t know who was left at that point. Tom was long gone. And so I was like, “Well, I should just do a new startup and I should work on something like what I was thinking about.” And I ended up starting the company and quickly was able to raise an angel around because people remembered my company from the first one. And the major investor we had was Andreessen Horowitz. This is one of their first board seat investments, like Marc Andreessen was on my board. And again, I have my own set of stories about that, but it was interesting experience and we launched it in… I think we got half a million or a million users. You can go find tech print articles about it. We launched on Android and iOS and it was mobile photo sharing, and actually it was growing pretty well. Okay?
And then what happened is there was another portfolio company called Bourbon, which was originally a ForceWare clone that was built by these two guys. And they decided to pivot out of that and into what… Which was pretty similar to my thing. Again, fair enough, that’s just how this works. And they did something smart. Again, this is just me talking, I don’t know what their version of the story is. But what I think they did that was smart is if you looked on the paid app store charts, the number one app was Hipstamatic and Hipstamatic cost money. And what do we know about what people want? They want things that are free that cost money, right? And so they basically built a pretty legitimate knockoff of the Hipstamatic filters, combining it with a social graph, and they launched it and it pretty quickly took off. So of course this is Instagram, right? And so it took off really quickly and that was a wild experience for me to be like, “Oh, this seems familiar.”
And basically because Andreessen Horowitz had invested in my company, was on the board, even though they were investors in Instagram, that was a conflict and they didn’t do the deal. And then for whatever reason, this became a big source of Silicon Valley gossip, which was like, “Wow, I can’t believe this happened.” And so it was just a really weird experience for me as a founder to be right in the middle of something that became culturally so important.
Lenny Rachitsky: I imagine there’s a bullseye in your back from a16z for a little bit.
Dalton Caldwell: Oh, I don’t actually think they care. I don’t think they held it against me because what did I do wrong?
Lenny Rachitsky: It’s true.
Dalton Caldwell: I started a company. You know what I’m saying? Obviously there was some frustration, but I was guy who had a company that they invested in. I don’t know. I didn’t feel didn’t much higher for them. I think this is just how life works.
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. I wonder if they changed their conflict policies after that at all.
Dalton Caldwell: I don’t think so. I think this has happened multiple other times, but those aren’t my stories to tell.
Lenny Rachitsky: And by the way, I don’t know if you mentioned the name of your startup, it was called PicPlz, right?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, it’s called PicPlz. Yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky: Great. Okay. So for the final phase before we get to very exciting lighting round, I have these two segments, recurring segments. I have failure corner and contrarian corner. We can do both or we can pick one or the other. Failure corner, share a story of a time in your career where you failed and when you learned from that experience. Contrarian corner, what’s something you believe that most other people don’t believe?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I think for contrarian corner, I know where I would start and I think it’s relevant for your listener. I think this is relevant to this and you could argue this isn’t contrary, but here’s what I think. I think growth and growth hacking and doing all this analytics, A/B testing stuff, is a total waste of time for very early startups. And that one of the weird things about having lots of startup advice on the internet, again, this is one of the reasons we started making videos at YC, is a lot of the advice was catered towards later stage companies. Like, “Oh, here’s how you set up your board and here’s how you motivate your sales team.” It was all aimed at series A, series B founders, and not for seed stage founders. The problem was seed stage founders would consume all the later stage advice and get really confused.
And so the anti-pattern I see is there are lots of founders that are very familiar with your awesome work, which again, I really recommend, I like it. But when you have no customers and you’re reading Lenny’s guides on how to set up split testing and how you did growth at Airbnb, oh man, that is so dumb. That is so not helpful. And so you see this inclination away from getting a first customer, getting one customer and talking to that person, and instead they have all this really complex growth hacking theory. I think this also happens if you worked in big tech where your product already has scale. And so if you work at Facebook and your job is to launch new little features, yeah, of course you should make heavy use of analytics and A/B testing and split testing and feature flags. Yeah, yeah, yeah, makes sense. But when you have no users, what are you doing? So do you think that’s contrary? What do you think? I’m just trying to argue this advice applied to a startup that’s too early is actively not helpful.
Lenny Rachitsky: I think it’s contrarian for many people. 100%. I also 100% agree with it. It makes me feel like I need to, at the top of my post, share here’s who this is for. If you’re earlier than this, ignore it. If you’re later than this, ignore it.
Dalton Caldwell: I mean, again, I’m not saying you do anything wrong, but imagine if the OG Airbnb founders took all of your current advice and applied it when they had four users and they knew their names and they were trying to run complicated growth hacking split testings.
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. Maybe just to clarify when you talk about growth hacking. So obviously when you’re starting something, say a consumer app, you need to get a bunch of users somehow. What’s your sense of just when you say don’t do this sort of thing, but this is okay? What falls in those buckets?
Dalton Caldwell: I think it depends on the idea. I think in the case of Whatnot, it was consumer app and they needed to get users. But they were very intellectually honest on the metrics for how you get a marketplace off the ground. And they didn’t just go dump all their money into Instagram ads. They effectively knew they needed to focus on buyers and on the buy side and build momentum on the buy side. They really understood marketplaces. And so for consumer, I think it’s having a sophisticated view of how you get the consumer company off the ground. I think if you look at the Facebook story, them getting a hundred percent penetration on the Harvard campus first instead of launching overall. Again, good strategy, would recommend that strategy. So again, the way to extrapolate that is know what your comps are of what companies you… Or type is, and then look at what they did on the zero to one and ignore what they do today. Right?
Don’t pay attention to what Facebook does today if you’re a brand new startup founder, pay attention to Facebook when they were getting their first thousand users. What were those tactics?
Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like this should be its own episode where we just go into how to get your first thousand users. I know there’s a video actually we’ll link to that Gustav made with YC’s advice on how to get your users. Did you want to visit failure corner or not? Or shall we move on?
Dalton Caldwell: I failed at tons of stuff. As an investor, I make lots of bad investments as well as good ones. I think in my startups I pivoted a lot and a lot of things I did didn’t work out. And so again, I just gave you a specific story with PicPlz, right? You just heard a specific story there. I guess what I learned is that you just can’t let it get to you too much and you got to keep going. And that if you keep going, no one really remembers those as much and it doesn’t really define you. Fear of failure shouldn’t dominate all of your thoughts. And instead you should use your energy and positivity to keep trying to do good work, right? Because back in the day, if I would’ve been like, “Well, I guess startups aren’t for me, I guess tech isn’t for me.” I wouldn’t have had a career doing any of this stuff. I wouldn’t be working at YC, I wouldn’t be advising companies, right?
So I always had to have in my life a lot of optimism and energy and use that energy and motor to keep me going. And it served me really well, right? Even if lots of stuff I tried didn’t work and continue to not work. Again, obvious stuff I know, but yeah, that doesn’t mean it’s not true, even though it’s obvious.
Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like that’s a recurring theme here and I love that it’s another version of just how not to die. There’s the startup itself that shouldn’t die, and then there’s your just drive and motivation to keep going and try new things when things don’t work out. I love all the recurring themes and messages for people here. Dalton, is there anything else you want to leave listeners with before we get to a very exciting lightning round?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, I guess the final thought is if someone wants to do a startup and doesn’t know where to start, just to give you permission to talk to potential customers and try to pre-sell something before you write code and have those conversations. I think so many folks don’t know where to begin on starting a startup, and my tactical advice is start doing customer validation first versus building a PowerPoint deck, versus trying to raise money versus all these other things. I think a lot of people don’t use that strategy, and basically if you find people that are really excited and you do line up customers, that is a great green light that it is time to do a startup, right? That can get you down the path. So yeah, I think that’s my final advice.
Lenny Rachitsky: And then with that, when does the building come in? Is it build it while you’re talking, build it before you… It depends on basically-
Dalton Caldwell: Build it once you have some conviction and then you’re like, “Oh, I think I would have a customer. I think that at least one person would use this thing I want to build. At least one.”
Lenny Rachitsky: I love it. I love the simplicity and pragmatism of all of your advice. Dalton, welcome to the very exciting lightning round. I’ve got six questions for you. Are you ready?
Dalton Caldwell: Let’s do it.
Lenny Rachitsky: What are two or three books that you recommend most to other people?
Dalton Caldwell: I think a lot of founders are afraid of doing sales and they don’t know how to do sales, and they think they need these really experienced sales coaches and they need all this training, and I’ll be like, “Well, go on to Amazon and find the most popular sales books like Getting to Yes that everyone reads, and just read those and that’ll get you 80% of the way there.” You know what I’m saying? They want to hire someone for millions of dollars to give them sales coaching. I’m like, “Well, have you read these really basic sales books?” And they’re like, “No.” And so I think that’s a low cost way to go on Amazon, Getting to Yes and a few other of the top sellers, I forget the names, and just read those, and that is your crash course on how to be great at sales.
Lenny Rachitsky: Awesome. There’s also this book called Founding Sales that I imagine you’re familiar with. Pete Kazanjy was on the podcast talking about that and that’s something I always recommend because it’s just like, “How founders can do sales.”
Dalton Caldwell: Start there.
Lenny Rachitsky: Start there. Great. We’ll link to that. Do you have a favorite recent movie or TV show that you really enjoyed?
Dalton Caldwell: This may be warping what you’re asking for, but I like to watch old shows a lot, and so I keep rewatching The Sopranos and the Wire, and it always is different to me every time and things like that. I think here’s a silly answer. I’ve been really enjoying watching old episodes of Columbo, which was a television show from the ’70s and ’80s. I don’t know why, I don’t even know if this is destructive, but for some reason, I’m really into that right now. It’s very old episodes of Columbo.
Lenny Rachitsky: You’re an old soul, Dalton.
Dalton Caldwell: I guess. I don’t know. It just feels like a time machine to a different time when I watch these things.
Lenny Rachitsky: Definitely, maybe one of the most unique answers yet.
Dalton Caldwell: Fair enough.
Lenny Rachitsky: Columbo.
Dalton Caldwell: Well, again, I guess I’m not trying to give you an answer where I sound super clever-
Lenny Rachitsky: No, I love this.
Dalton Caldwell: I’m telling you the real answer. So that’s actually what I’m watching.
Lenny Rachitsky: It does actually sound very sophisticated and clever. Do you have a favorite interview question that you like to ask, I guess founders in this context?
Dalton Caldwell: I don’t really believe in trick questions, and I think I just start with, “Hey, so tell me about what you’re working on.” Or, “What have you learned since you started?” Again, none of these are trick questions, but I think you can get the most honest and interesting answers by asking the most straightforward basic things and having that be a blank slate for their answers to draw on. You know what I’m saying? So I like the most simple prompts and let them take the conversation where they want to go.
Lenny Rachitsky: I know this probably is a very big question, but just what do you look for in their answer that gives you a sense of this is a good or bad answer?
Dalton Caldwell: For YC interviews?
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. And I know this is its own podcast episode.
Dalton Caldwell: I think evidence that they actually have thought about it. As per I said earlier, that they’ve done research, that they have opinions, that they care about it. Right? Sometimes when people answer questions, you can just tell that it’s really superficial, and they haven’t put much care or soul into their answers.
Lenny Rachitsky: Awesome. Do you have a favorite product that you’ve recently discovered that you really like?
Dalton Caldwell: I like my Oura ring and my Apple Watch and all that good stuff. I’ve been a fan. There’s a YC clinic called SiPhox, S-I-P-H-O-X, I just sign up for, and they do at-home blood testing. And basically I’m trying to sync that at-home blood testing thing into all my other devices. I don’t know. I really enjoy all the stuff that Apple and other startups are working on and YC companies are working on around personal health. And so yeah, those are products I’m into.
Lenny Rachitsky: SiPhox. Okay. And wait, then you do a needle and stuff and you take your own blood?
Dalton Caldwell: It’s this little tiny needle. It doesn’t hurt at all. It takes a few drops of blood and you do it at home and you mail it in and then it has all these blood tests. It’s actually really cool. Yeah. It was one of those cases where I saw it and then I later was like, “Oh, wait, that’s a YC company.” Basically, I became a customer and was pleasantly surprised that it’s a YC company.
Lenny Rachitsky: And I think I found it. So it’s S-I-P-H-O-X health dot com.
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, it really rolls off the tongue, right? Yeah, that’s the name of it.
Lenny Rachitsky: Very cool. Okay, I see the little needle. Okay, great. Go SiPhox. Okay, two more questions. Do you have a favorite life motto that you often come back to, find useful in work or in life, share with friends?
Dalton Caldwell: Just check in with yourself that you’re having fun and that you enjoy what you’re doing. And if you don’t, you should probably make a change, whatever that is. And again, if you’re a founder, you’re in control, right? You can change your own company. But I think a lot of people go through life and they don’t ask themselves this question, am I having fun? Am I enjoying? Do I value what I’m spending my time on? And I think that you just can go back to this over and over and over again as a good prompt on how to decide what to do with your life.
Lenny Rachitsky: Easier said than done to change that in many cases, but it always starts with realizing, okay, this isn’t actually what I-
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, and bidding to yourself. Yeah, I’m not really enjoying this, and then trying to be like, “Well, how can I fix it?” Having that conversation with yourself.
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah. It reminds me of a Steve Jobs quote where you wake up day after day, it’s okay to wake up some days being like, “I don’t want to be doing this.” But if it’s every day and continues to happen, then that’s a sign you should change it.
Dalton Caldwell: Exactly.
Lenny Rachitsky: Final question. You and Michael Seibel have been doing this incredible podcast together. If somebody wanted to check out the podcast and dive in, is there an episode that you love most that you think they could start with?
Dalton Caldwell: It depends. Some of the episodes are more for folks that already have a startup and they’re dealing with problems. I don’t know. Some of the episodes about investors or things like that. It’s very clear that the audience for those is current startup founders. And there’s a lot that are just more life advice, how to make decisions and think about. And those have strangely become very popular and gotten a lot of views with non-startup founders, which is a pleasant surprise. And so I’d recommend those for folks in the audience that are not currently startup founders. I don’t know. Life tips from top founders, I think is a good-
Lenny Rachitsky: Oh, from billionaires? Is it that one?
Dalton Caldwell: Yeah, yeah. I think that was pretty popular. So what I’d be looking for is diagnose, am I a current founder and I have founder problems? Or am I just looking for general philosophy type questions? And I really like those philosophy ones. We have one for high school students, the audience is, here’s advice for high school students that are interested in startups. Here’s some tips that you should be thinking about. Again, pretty narrow target audience, but I love that episode because we’re really trying to speak directly to that audience and I think it’s pretty good advice.
Lenny Rachitsky: Dalton, you are wonderful. Thank you for sharing so much wisdom. This is action packed. I’m really excited for founders to listen to this. I think it’s going to make a big dent in a lot of people’s lives. Two final questions. Where can folks find you online if they want to reach out and follow up on some of this? And how can listeners be useful to you?
Dalton Caldwell: I am on Twitter/X.com and Dalton.C is my username. And also my LinkedIn is pretty good. It’s pretty popular. I don’t know. Just search for my name on LinkedIn. And yeah, I’d love to see you all there. And then how can folks be helpful? I mean, honestly, it’s just great when folks want to apply to YC and do a startup. And so feel free to dive into other videos and apply to YC. And something that’s really special about my job is I get the privilege of getting to fund companies that they already know me from videos and they’re shocked that I’m exactly the same as… Effectively, they’re like, “Wow, you’re just that guy from the videos I’ve been watching, and it’s so cool that you’re just exactly like you seem in the videos.” And so basically, yeah, if people like what I have to say and they like the videos and apply to YC, I would love to fund their companies.
Lenny Rachitsky: Dalton, thank you so much for being here.
Dalton Caldwell: Sure thing. Thanks so much, Lenny. Appreciate it.
Lenny Rachitsky: Bye everyone. Thank you so much for listening. If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast. You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at Lennyspodcast.com. See you in the next episode.
Glossary
| English | 中文 |
|---|---|
| a16z | a16z(Andreessen Horowitz 的简称,知名风险投资机构) |
| Airbnb | Airbnb(知名短租住宿平台) |
| angel round | 天使轮 |
| B2B | B2B(Business to Business,企业对企业) |
| batch | 批次(YC 的创业项目按期分组) |
| board seat | 董事会席位 |
| Collison Install | Collison Install(Collison 兄弟开创的上门帮客户部署产品的销售策略) |
| Columbo | 《Columbo》(七十至八十年代经典侦探剧《神探哥伦坡》) |
| decacorn | 十角兽(估值超过百亿美元的创业公司) |
| deep tech | 深科技 |
| DoorDash | DoorDash(美国知名外卖配送平台) |
| ERP | ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning,企业资源规划) |
| fine tune | fine tune(微调) |
| Flexport | Flexport(知名数字货运代理平台) |
| Founding Sales | 《Founding Sales》(面向创始人的销售实战指南) |
| Funko Pops | Funko Pops(一种流行收藏级潮玩公仔) |
| Getting to Yes | 《Getting to Yes》(经典谈判与销售类书籍) |
| Hacker News | Hacker News(知名科技资讯与讨论社区) |
| Homebrew Computer Club | 家酿计算机俱乐部(Homebrew Computer Club) |
| incumbent | 在位者(市场中已有的占据主导地位的公司) |
| information diet | 信息食谱(一个人获取信息的来源和习惯组合) |
| LLM | LLM(Large Language Model,大语言模型) |
| Milk | Milk(Lenny Bogdonoff 创办的创业公司) |
| Mixpanel | Mixpanel(知名产品分析平台) |
| music discovery | 音乐发现(帮助用户发现新音乐的功能或产品方向) |
| NPS | NPS(Net Promoter Score,净推荐值) |
| office hours | 办公时间(YC 合伙人与创业者定期会面指导的时间段) |
| Oura ring | Oura 戒指(一种智能健康追踪戒指) |
| Patrick | Patrick(指 Patrick Collison,Stripe 联合创始人) |
| Pete Kazanjy | Pete Kazanjy(《Founding Sales》作者) |
| pivoting | 转型 |
| pre-seed | pre-seed(种子轮之前的极早期融资阶段) |
| product-market fit | product-market fit(产品与市场的契合度) |
| Razorpay | Razorpay(印度知名支付处理平台) |
| Request for Startups | Request for Startups(创业创意征集) |
| RFS | RFS(Request for Startups 的缩写) |
| Scott Belsky | Scott Belsky(Behance 创始人、Adobe 首席产品官) |
| Series B | B 轮融资 |
| SiPhox | SiPhox(居家血液检测服务公司) |
| staying power | 持久力 |
| Steve Jobs | Steve Jobs(苹果公司联合创始人) |
| TAM | TAM(Total Addressable Market,总可寻址市场) |
| tar pit ideas | 焦油坑式想法(看似诱人却会困住创业者的创业方向) |
| The Sopranos | 《The Sopranos》(经典美剧《黑道家族》) |
| The Wire | 《The Wire》(经典美剧《火线》) |
| Visiting Partner | 访问合伙人 |
| Whatnot | Whatnot(知名直播购物与收藏品交易平台) |
| white glove service | white glove service(白手套服务,即全方位贴心的高端客户服务) |
| YC | YC(Y Combinator,知名创业加速器) |
Reformatted by reformat_english.py
来自1000多家YC创业公司的经验教训:韧性、焦油坑式想法、转型及更多 | Dalton Caldwell(YC)
逐字稿
预告
Dalton Caldwell: 看了人们申请YC的各种项目,大家的想法都一样。
Lenny Rachitsky: 其中一个主题就是简单务实的建议。卖东西,赚钱。
Dalton Caldwell: 我的一句口头禅就是不要死。接受教练的指导、不断被提醒基本要素和基础,能让你进入正确的心态。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你有一个焦油坑式想法的概念。
Dalton Caldwell: 看起来像是一个尚未解决的问题。你会从外界获得大量正面反馈,但人们从90年代起就在做这个创业方向了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 最近你发布了一份创业项目征集,20个YC想要资助的想法类别。
Dalton Caldwell: 我们想改变一下信息摄入的构成,让人们思考一些他们目前可能正在考虑的不同类型的想法。
Lenny Rachitsky: 很多人说你是转型之王。
Dalton Caldwell: 一次好的转型就像回家。更温暖,更接近你擅长的领域。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你还发现成功的创业公司有什么其他模式吗?
Dalton Caldwell: 很多创始人差一点就全部完了,但凭纯粹的意志力硬是撑了下去。
嘉宾介绍
Lenny Rachitsky: 今天的嘉宾是 Dalton Caldwell。Dalton 是 Y Combinator 的董事总经理兼集团合伙人,在那里工作了超过十年,参与了21个不同的YC批次,包括在早期与 Instacart、Retool、Brex、Deal、DoorDash、Webflow、Replit、Amplitude、Whatnot、Razorpay 以及另外20家独角兽公司密切合作。在加入 Y Combinator 之前,Dalton 是 imeem 的联合创始人兼CEO,后来被 Myspace 收购;他还是 App.net 的联合创始人兼CEO,这是 Twitter 早期的无广告竞争对手。Dalton 见过和合作过的创业公司比几乎任何在世的人都多。在我们的对话中,我们将深入且极具实操性地探讨创业之旅:为什么一切归根结底就是不失去希望、不让你的创业公司死掉;当你的创业公司陷入困境时该怎么办,以及如何判断什么时候该放弃;什么构成了一次出色的转型,以及该转型的信号;如何真正与客户对话。
为什么每一家创业公司都会经历一个觉得所有希望都破灭的时刻。为什么投资人对创业公司说不。导致创业公司失败最常见的原因是什么。为什么你需要避免在早期过度授权。以及你应该避免的创业想法。还有 Dalton 想要资助的20个想法。还有许多精彩的故事和经验教训。这期节目内容非常充实。
Lenny Rachitsky: Dalton,非常感谢你来参加节目,欢迎。
回归基本功:“不要死”
Dalton Caldwell: 是的,非常感谢,Lenny。我真的很高兴今天能和你交谈,一直很期待。
Lenny Rachitsky: 为了准备这次播客采访,我问了一些在YC期间与你合作过的创始人,你分享的哪些建议对他们思考产品、思考如何建设创业公司、如何运营方面产生了最转变性的影响。有很多主题浮现出来,我会涉及其中几个。其中一个主题就是,你多么频繁地给出非常简单务实的建议,你传达的信息中有多少就是”卖东西、赚钱、别把钱烧光”。为什么你认为创始人需要听到这些看似简单而显而易见的建议?
Dalton Caldwell: 你看过NBA篮球或大学篮球比赛吗?他们会给教练戴上麦克风,展示他们在暂停时到底在说什么。你听过他们实际在说什么吗?就是”好了,我们需要集中注意力,把球抢到手,赢下这场比赛”之类的。如果你真的去听世界上最优秀、最聪明、最成功的运动员在讨论什么,如果你去听泰格·伍兹在和他的球童说什么,听起来都是些很寻常的东西。泰格·伍兹和球童讨论的并不是什么难以破解的专业术语。而是类似”对,这杆你真的需要保持低头”这样的话。我觉得之所以如此,是因为即使你是世界上最顶尖的人,接受教练的指导、不断被提醒基本要素和基础,才能让你进入正确的心态。你已经知道了一切,对吧?如果你能成为一名创业公司创始人,或者做到任何在心理上极其困难的精英级别,你就已经处于巅峰了。
所以我的一句口头禅就是不要死。让你的创业公司继续运转,继续走下去。我一遍又一遍地说这句话,说实话,这往往是人们告诉我我说过的最有影响力的话。并不是我说了什么五维棋级别的绝妙招数让他们闻所未闻,只是不断地确认:继续坚持、高质量地反复操练,这就是这场游戏本身。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我知道你有一个演讲就叫这个名字——《如何不死》。让我再稍微展开一下,你在那个演讲中给那些同样不想死的创业者分享了什么通用建议?
不放弃的理性与坚持的非理性
Dalton Caldwell: 总结一下,如果你看看 YC 多年来所有的创业故事和我们投资过的所有公司,一个贯穿始终的主题就是:从理性的角度来说,这些创始人在某个阶段都应该放弃了。再拿 Airbnb 举例吧,这个你显然非常了解。他们在进入 YC 之前大概应该有三四次直接关掉公司。客观地讲,它确实没有在运转。他们基本上把自己的生活搞得一团糟,让父母失望,一切都不对劲,创始人继续做他们那个看起来荒唐的创业公司,完全是一种非理性的行为。而且这只是一个故事。如果你纵观 YC 和非 YC 的投资组合,你必须要有一种非理性的执念,即使全世界都在告诉你行不通、即使你感到彻底挫败,也要继续走下去。而且你很可能要经历很多次这样的情况,经历很多次濒死的体验。然后你走运了,然后你看起来就像是一夜成名。对吧?
这是那个演讲的核心主题,我在里面提供了大量的数据和故事,但这种事情就是我做这份工作越久,就越发坚信这是真的。
什么时候该放弃
Lenny Rachitsky: 反过来呢?有很多创业公司,尤其是现在,正在非常艰难地挣扎,已经挣扎了一段时间了,面临心理健康方面的挑战,如果不得不关掉公司他们会非常难过,但很多时候这可能是正确的选择。对于那些在判断”好吧,在这种情况下放弃确实是合理的”的人,你有什么建议?
Dalton Caldwell: 我觉得这是一个很微妙的问题,我很难在播客上说出什么对人们真正有用的东西,但有几个想法。第一,你还在享受吗?你还喜欢你正在做的事情吗?你享受和联合创始人一起共度的时光吗?这件事对你来说真的还有趣吗?如果答案是肯定的,我倾向于建议你继续坚持下去。而如果你更多感觉到的是”哇,这真的在以非常负面的方式影响我,影响我和身边人的关系,我也不太想再和联合创始人一起工作了”之类的,那我倾向于建议你也许不要再做了。那些成功扭转局面的创始人有一个共同点:他们确实热爱自己的客户,热爱自己的产品。
再拿 Airbnb 的故事来说,你非常了解这段历史,他们真的很喜欢 Airbnb,喜欢一起工作,喜欢他们遇到的第一个房东,他们知道所有房东的名字。你明白我的意思吗?他们热爱自己的创业公司,即使它当时做得不好。所以对我来说,这是一个继续走下去的信号——你真的、真的很热爱你正在做的事,热爱和你一起做这件事的人,热爱你的客户,热爱你在解决的问题。而如果是那种”说实话,这些东西我都无所谓,我只是在遭罪”的状态,那种情况下就很难鼓励你继续了。而且这种状态是可以改变的——你可以让它变得更接近你喜欢的那种样子,不是吗?
Lenny Rachitsky: 是的。这其实是非常实用、非常好的建议。这是人们可以真切感受到的东西——“好吧,我真的还在享受这件事吗?我还想继续做下去吗?“对比”天哪,继续运营这家创业公司真是煎熬”。对于那些说”我没法停下来,因为停下来就意味着我失败了”的人,你有什么想说的?
Dalton Caldwell: 如果真的做得很差,或者你过得真的很痛苦,这没什么大不了的。十年或二十年后,大概没几个人会记得你关掉了公司。只要你保持了诚信,只要你是一个诚实的人,只要你在顺境和逆境中都处理得当,人们会记住你的好。我们的生命如此短暂。我们能用来发展事业的时间就那么多,去做一件让你痛苦的事,而做它的唯一原因是为了避免丢面子,而且你心里清楚它行不通——我不知道,这似乎是你用你的人生付出的一个相当大的机会成本。对吧?
Winter-17 批次的故事
Lenny Rachitsky: 是的,这正是我一直在跟创始人说的。人生短暂,没必要强迫自己继续做这件事。我非常喜欢你的观点——你还在享受吗?你喜欢和你的联合创始人一起工作吗?沿着”挣扎训练”这个话题再多聊一点,有一位和你一起参加过 YC 的创始人,名字叫 Danny Alberson,他分享过一个故事:在某一批 YC 期间,有位创始人举手问你,“我们这一批到底怎么了?每个人都在挣扎,没有一家做得好。我们做错了什么?“然后你讲了一个关于 Brex 的故事,让大家好受了一些。你还记得这件事吗?如果记得的话,能分享一下吗?
Dalton Caldwell: 这件事确实发生了,这个故事是关于 Winter-17 批次的。在 Winter-17 这一批里,我在我的小组投资了大概三十五到四十家公司。我们会把公司分成小组,所以每个小组公司并不多,我对所有公司都非常了解。创始人总是忍不住拿自己和别的创始人比较,看谁做得好、谁做得不好。当时我的小组里有一家公司,在这一批里,叫 Vyond,那是他们当时的名字,是一个做 VR 头显的项目,创始人是几个从斯坦福辍学的学生。他们基本上在小组办公时间出现的时候满脸羞愧,说”我们的想法太烂了,我们可能要关掉公司,这真的太丢人了。“我基本上得求他们别放弃。如果你当时问这一批的人哪家公司是最差的,我觉得他们会指这家。再次强调,不是因为他们人不好,而是创始人自己对项目进展显得非常绝望。
然后有意思的是,这段故事里还有另一家创业公司,也在我的小组里,叫 Cashew,是一个在英国做 P2P 支付的类 Venmo 项目,也做得很差,没什么增长。所以如果你在批次中期拍一个快照,看谁肯定做得不好,那显然就是这家 Vyond 和这家 Cashew。然后长话短说,Vyond 改了想法,对新方向非常兴奋,改名为 Brex——Brex 如今是一家估值上百亿美元的独角兽。而 Cashew 也改了想法,改名为一个叫 Retool 的公司。所以在我那三十五家公司里,客观上看起来最差、一切都在走下坡路的那些,回过头来看,反而是那个小组里最成功的公司。
Lenny Rachitsky: 哇,等等,你是说 Brex 之前是一家做 VR 头显的公司?
Dalton Caldwell: 他们觉得那个方向非常高科技。他们想做一个非常高科技的创业公司,所以决定”我们要做一个新的 VR 头显”。他们确实是优秀的程序员,但他们根本不懂光学,也不懂做头显你可能需要成为专家的那些东西。
什么是好的转型
Lenny Rachitsky: 哇,这真是一个了不起的故事。这正好引出了另一个主题——在和创始人聊你给出的建议时浮现出来的一个话题。很多人告诉我你是转型之王,擅长帮助人们弄清楚如何转型。我很好奇,根据你的观察,什么造就了一次好的转型?
Dalton Caldwell: 通常来说,一次成功的转型会让你离自己擅长的领域更近,而不是更远,并且会在某种程度上建立在之前那个想法中所积累的经验之上。对吧?以 Brex 为例,他们年轻时在巴西做过一家金融科技公司,所以我就说,“你们应该做自己懂的东西,而不是自己完全不懂的东西。“这正是他们成功的原因。Retool 的情况也一样。他们在实习期间以及为 Cashew 工作时都构建过类似的内部工具。他们搭建了大量仪表盘来运营自己的 Venmo 竞品。所以他们非常清楚该做什么。在 postprod 的案例中,他们通过转型和不断迭代想法,对分析领域有了深入了解,并形成了很强的判断力。这比他们最初的创意要贴近得多。
以 Zip 为例,Rujul 对很多领域都非常了解,而且他对 Airbnb 内部那套疯狂的图片和流程非常熟悉,因为他在那里工作过。一次好的转型就像是回家。它更温暖,更接近某个你……而你可能从未想过,你如此精通的这个东西居然会是一个好创意;或者你可能有意识地觉得,“我不想做这个,因为我已经对它倦怠了。“有时候,一个人需要跨越内心那道障碍——为什么自己不愿意做某个想法。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这些例子太精彩了。我喜欢你的谦逊。我想的是,“哦,这里有个大理念。“而你直接给出非常具体的实操建议。所以本质上,在你看来,一次好的转型就是——你正在靠近、趋近某个你确实有实际经验的领域;其次,它建立在你已经做过的事情之上。这基本上就是转型的核心理念,对吗?就是你正在……
Dalton Caldwell: 以 Segment 为例,这显然是一家非常成功的大公司。他们最初做的是一个让学生在课堂上告诉教授自己没听懂的工具,是一款卖给大学的软件。两年后他们转型做了一个类似于 Mixpanel 竞品的产品,原因是在运营第一个想法的过程中,他们学会了分析系统是怎么运作的,对吧?但没有人愿意采用他们的 Mixpanel 竞品。于是他们说,“我们应该做这个 JavaScript 小工具,嵌入网站后可以把事件同时发送到多个终端,这样人们就愿意把我们的 Mixpanel 竞品和 Mixpanel 放在一起试用,来证明我们的更好。“然后他们发现,“哦对了,其实没人想要那个竞品。他们只想要这个能把事件发送到不同地方的 JavaScript。“而这些创始人根本不可能一开始就想出最终那个创意。你明白我的意思吗?
根本不存在一个平行宇宙,让他们能凭空想出 Segment 的点子,因为他们起初对分析系统一无所知。但因为他们苦干了数年,作为早期创意的副产品,他们成了这些领域的专家。最终他们获得了真正优秀的、独特的洞察。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我觉得这一点非常重要——你不一定非要在创办公司之前就拥有那些经验,它完全可以来自你试图打造公司的过程本身。
Dalton Caldwell: 没错。
什么时候应该转型
Lenny Rachitsky: 大家一直在问的一个大问题是,我该转型吗?现在是转型的时候吗?我该继续尝试这个想法吗?你对此有什么建议?就是说,到了什么节点你真的应该开始考虑别的东西了?
Dalton Caldwell: 这又是一个我喜欢根据 YC 里每个人的具体情况给出量身定制、细致入微的建议的领域。不过,还是给你一个我思考方式的预览吧——我会看创始人还有多少让产品增长的点子。如果情况不太好,而你已经没有新想法了,那通常是转型的好时机。但当你手头还有六到十二个还没尝试过的、非常好的增长想法时,那就去试。对吧?试一试。再说回 Airbnb 的故事,他们尝试了各种各样的方法,包括卖麦片和搞活动。他们有一堆疯狂的增长点子,而且没有用完。所以我觉得,当一个想法还有油的时候,也许这就是坚持下去的理由。而当创始人说,“嗯,我不知道,也许我们应该花钱请网红推广之类的吧。“当这种层次的想法是他们能想出来的东西时,那可能就是该转型的信号了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这太有帮助了。我们快速回到 Zip 的话题,我记得他们在最终找到这个如今价值十亿美元的业务之前,经历了六次不同的转型。在那个具体的旅程中,你有没有觉得什么特别有意思的地方?因为他们尝试了太多不同的方向——会计、交易平台……
Dalton Caldwell: 是的。我觉得在 Zip 创始人的例子中,他们俩都是非常优秀的专家,而且我跟 Rujul 很熟。他其实和我一起在 YC 担任过访问合伙人。所以我和 Rujul 关系很近,他年轻的时候还做过一个叫 FlightCar 的交易平台,融到了 B 轮,虽然没有成功,但真的是一家很酷的公司。我对他的能力非常有信心——运营企业、快速执行,而且直觉非常好。他真正理解基本原理。问题在于他们不太确定该进入哪个市场。所以我实际上给他们提了一个建议——当然,这也是非常针对个案的——我的建议是,先看看那些已上市的和/或被私募股权持有的大型公司,同时它们的客户非常痛恨它们,有意识地去寻找那种”可知的大市场+在位者+软件极其糟糕”组合的地方。
他们确实这么做了。他们基本上摸清了所有这些采购软件的情况以及行业现状,这就是起点。也许他跟你讲过,基本上就是这个过程。
Lenny Rachitsky: 他确实跟我讲过。我太喜欢那个例子和那条建议了。我不知道为什么没有更多人这样做。基本上就是找到一个大型在位者,它的 NPS 极低,然后尝试颠覆它。如此简单直接。
Dalton Caldwell: 是的,我的意思是,我不能保证这对每个人都奏效。但同样,在 Rujul 这个非常具体的案例中,效果非常好,因为一旦他锁定在那个方向上,他非常清楚该做什么。天哪,他上演了一场教科书级的表演。他们做得堪称 A+,真的非常出色。
Lenny Rachitsky: 还有他的联合创始人 Lou,也要归功于他。
Dalton Caldwell: 当然。抱歉,没错。我们要给 Lou 点赞。Lou 做得非常出色。只是在他参加 YC 之前我不太了解 Lou。但你说得对,我们要把功劳也归于 Lou。
在沙漠中走向山脉
Lenny Rachitsky: 我之前看了你和 Michael Seibel 聊转型的对话,你或者他用了一个说法——你要在沙漠中走向山脉去寻找新创业想法的金矿,而不是去城市中心。在旧金山市中心你是找不到金子的。这方面你还有什么可以分享的吗?
Dalton Caldwell: 是的,我觉得这可能跟我们看申请和面试时的感受有关。站在我的位置,我能看到大家申请 YC 时提交的项目、面试时带来的东西等等。人们想的都一样。想象一下,你的信息摄入——你听的是同一个播客,暗示一下,你在 Twitter 上关注的是同一批人,读的是同一篇博客文章。基本上,你和其他创始人的信息食谱完全一样,你们的朋友圈也高度重合。那你们最终得出相似的创业想法、对什么是好创业点子有相似的理念,这有什么好奇怪的呢?当然会这样。所以这个关于城市的隐喻就是说,如果你遵循同样的原则、让同样的信息流进入你的大脑,你就会和所有人想出同样的东西。
所以这里的提示是,尝试走一些更偏门的路——要么来自你的个人经历,比如 Brex、Retool 或 Whatnot 的案例。当年没有其他人想要为 Funko Pops 搭建市场平台。深入挖掘你自己的个人兴趣或经验,找到那种你的同龄人不可能以完全相同的方式想到的东西。再说回 Zip 的例子,我不觉得其他人在尝试做那种古怪的采购软件。这种想法我们很少见到。所以再次强调,对大家的建议是,尝试让你的信息食谱更多元化,或者利用你独特的专业领域,好好挖掘那口井,而不是和所有人想同样的事情。让我再举一个例子。
几年前,围绕卡车运输的创业还非常新颖、令人耳目一新,因为没有人涉足,它们发展得很好,然后做卡车相关的创业就完全变成了传统智慧。我不是要 diss 谁,但你会看到某些领域因为有人在这个不时髦的空间里取得了成功,然后就迅速变得时髦起来。
焦油坑式想法
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个话题正好可以衔接我接下来想深入聊的内容——你有一个”焦油坑式想法”的概念,基本上就是那种所有人都被吸引过去然后被困住的想法,要么转型进去之后转不出来,要么试图转型却无法脱身。本质上就是那些不断有人尝试、却始终是糟糕的创业想法。你能聊聊这个吗?有哪些人们应该停止尝试的典型坏创业想法的例子?
Dalton Caldwell: 熟悉我们这套说法的人,有时候会比较抵触,不太理解我们到底在说什么。定义上,一个东西之所以被称为焦油坑,恰恰是因为它看起来不像焦油坑。如果只是一个普通的、很难的想法,那不叫焦油坑。我们所说的焦油坑式想法有一个奇怪的特征:很多人都会想到它,它看起来像一个未解决的问题,而且你能获得大量正面反馈。对吧?你有一套非常好的论证来说明这是一个很好的创业想法。这和一个糟糕的创业想法是不同的。你明白我想说的吗?糟糕的创业想法是,我不知道,某个明显不靠谱的东西,或者你根本得不到任何正面反馈的东西。但最常见的焦油坑之一,比如做一个协调朋友们决定晚上去哪里玩、去哪里聚会的应用。这个想法确实出发点很好,是个好想法。
你去问朋友:“嘿,你们要不要一个让我们协调聚会、多见面的应用?“他们会说:“当然要啊,太想要了。“你会从周围得到大量正面反馈。天哪,人们从九十年代就开始做这个创业了,所以你是可以验证它的。成为真正的焦油坑的一部分特征,就是你确实能获得好的初期验证。你明白我的意思吗?所以就是这样。说实话,我自己当创始人的时候也做过焦油坑式想法——音乐发现。这是我在第一个创业公司做的事。音乐创业本来就很难,然后还要说”我们要解决音乐发现问题”,这是那种你能获得大量正面反馈、甚至能获得用户的东西,但它有一些内在的方面让这个想法变得极其困难。这说得通吗?
Lenny Rachitsky: 完全理解。我也犯过这个错。我之前有一个叫 Localmind 的创业项目,可以让你在城市各个地点向 Foursquare 和 Google 上签到的人提问,问问他们”那边情况怎么样?“每个用过的人都说:“天哪,这是我用过的最不可思议的东西。我能看到我正要去的那个酒吧正在发生什么。“然后他们就再也不用了。
Dalton Caldwell: 你还记得那几年所有人都只做 Foursquare 的克隆品吗?
Lenny Rachitsky: 记得。
Dalton Caldwell: 持续了好几年。
Lenny Rachitsky: 他们告诉我们 Foursquare 会统治这个领域,你做的这个想法不可能独立存在。现在嘛,Foursquare 已经是一家 B2B 公司了。
Dalton Caldwell: 是的,那些 Foursquare 的克隆项目如果没有转型做别的事情的话,都不可能成功。所以这就是焦油坑——一个超级有吸引力、很多人都会去做的东西。而且你能获得验证,这就是为什么叫焦油坑——它把你吸引进去,你被困住了,因为它看起来是个好想法,你得到了所有这些正面反馈。
投资人为什么会对你说不
Lenny Rachitsky: 沿着这个思路,我最近跟一位创始人聊天,她问我:“当你试图从投资人那里融资的时候,什么原因会让投资人对你说不?“我知道每个投资人对什么会让他们否定一个创业项目有非常不同的看法,但有没有什么是你觉得——如果你做了这些事,投资人就会说不?
Dalton Caldwell: 也许我能给的最佳建议是,创始人应该把自己放在投资人的位置上,想象他们的生活是什么样的,如果你处在他们的位置会怎么决策。在这个框架下,很多投资人其实做的投资并不多,而且正如我们之前聊到的,人生短暂。所以投资人心里觉得一个项目挺好的——“嗯,我喜欢这个人,也喜欢他们的 pitch,但我今年只打算做少数几笔投资。所以虽然我真的很看好很多方面,但我还是得说不。“我经常觉得创始人认为投资人说不的背后有某个不告诉他们的秘密真相,或者他们想要更多反馈。“我需要反馈。“但其实反馈就是——我们不想投资,原因真的就是如此简单。
所以我认为如果你把自己放在投资人的角度想一想——“我一年只能做几笔投资,预算非常有限”——他们确实只是在挑选那些自己个人最兴奋的项目,或者他们认为真正有可能在某种意义上达到惊人规模的项目。或者说,我也知道你也做投资,作为投资人你能出手的次数是有限的。所以任何看起来不像”就是它了,这就是我想投的那个”的项目,都是不。这才是他们说”不”的真正原因,而不是”你的 Zoom 画面不好”或者”我们不喜欢你衬衫的颜色,所以说不”。我觉得实际运作并不是那样的。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我觉得这是一条非常好的建议——投资人说不一定是因为他们不看好你在做的事情,而是他们有更好的选择,他们在等待一个达到更高标准的项目,因为他们的选择太多了。
Dalton Caldwell: 是啊。再说一遍,如果你问别人或者把自己放在投资人的位置上,你自己难道不会做出同样的决策吗?通常创始人会说,“对。“如果你做一下这个练习,很多事情就开始变得合理多了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 特别是在评估创业公司的时候。我本来不打算聊这个,但我觉得可能挺有意思的——市场规模。作为 YC 的投资人,你怎么看待大 TAM 的重要性?
市场规模与 TAM
Dalton Caldwell: 我觉得这真的取决于你在什么阶段投资,越到后期就越关键。对吧?如果你打算以很高的估值投进去,那就真的很重要。越早期,就越不重要。一些极其成功的创业公司,如果你真要较真的话,它们的 TAM 小得很。Uber 的 TAM 几乎为零,对吧?Airbnb 的 TAM 也几乎为零。TI 投了 Razorpay,那应该是印度最大的支付处理商,当时它的 TAM 也小得很,因为 2015 年的印度几乎没人用信用卡。你必须相信印度的信用卡行业会增长一百倍。结果呢?你懂我的意思吧。我不是说终有一天拥有一个巨大的市场不重要——当然最终是重要的。但对于一个 pre-seed 阶段的公司或者申请 YC 的团队来说,在市场规模上过于较真,这不是我会花很多心思的事情。
再说一个例子,Whatnot。收藏级 Funko Pops 行业的 TAM 是多少?我不知道。我觉得不会很大。我不知道你投资的时候有没有做过这个分析,但我觉得它相当小,不过我当时一点都不担心。那是我最不担心的事情。
Lenny Rachitsky: 在 YC 不太关注这一点完全说得通,因为正如你所说,很多创业公司反正也会转型。所以如果你看好这个团队——
Dalton Caldwell: 对。我也不是说这不重要,不是那个意思。我真正担心的是——嘿,你怎么获取用户?嘿,你怎么增长?这类问题。你是不是在做用户想要的东西?这些才是我真正担心的事情,而不是——哦,我跑了个 Excel 模型,担心这个 TAM 可能不够大。那不在我的优先清单上。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我觉得有一点很重要,要承认很多投资人非常……YC 在很多方面确实很独特,你们投资得非常早,并且帮助创业者走过这段旅程。很多投资人非常关注 TAM,所以你可能会发现自己被拒绝,是因为他们认为你的市场不够大,无法支撑一个大生意,对吧?
Dalton Caldwell: 对。或者你在要求他们做一个疯狂的信心的跳跃,他们可以说——“好吧,理论上你确实有可能卖出比 Funko Pops 更多的东西,我也理解这是你的 pitch,但我有其他风险更低的机会。“你懂我意思吧?很多创始人会论证 TAM 很大,然后你可以说——“哇,这个论证很有意思,我不会跟你争,但是不,我不会投……”所以再说一遍,哪怕你有一些佐证,也很难让别人就 TAM 跟你认真辩论。归根结底,很多投资人就是不喜欢那种风险。这很合理。
创始人的产品陷阱
Lenny Rachitsky: 确实如此。稍微换个方向。还有一个跟你共事过的人,另一个 Lenny——Lenny Bogdonoff,他创办了一家叫 Milk 的公司,后来还在 OpenAI 做过一段时间的增长负责人。他让我问你,产品领导者和创业公司应该注意什么。这有印象吗?
Dalton Caldwell: 我不记得具体的办公时间了,但我理解这个问题,我当然记得 Lenny。我觉得他提到的那个建议就是——不要过度授权有多么重要,创始人要贴近一线,以及要警惕在创业早期就招进那些简历光鲜的高级人才。我觉得他指的就是这个。再说一遍,这绝对是那种我们不断重复的基础性建议,他们的反应是——“嗯嗯,我懂。不要过度授权。我们知道了,Dalton。“然后两年后他们说——“哇,我们确实过度授权了。我们得去收拾这个烂摊子。“这大概是最好的产品建议了。那些真正擅长做产品的人——那些无论到了多晚期都始终深扎产品细节、依然非常在乎、依然在和用户交流的创始人——我相信你在 Airbnb 的文化中也一定见过这种风格——你无法把”在乎用户”这件事授权出去,也无法把”在乎产品是否出色”这件事授权出去。这一点至关重要。
Lenny Rachitsky: 让这个更具体一点,你看到他们具体做了什么?是太早招了产品经理,太早招了高级销售人员,具体是——
Dalton Caldwell: 对,你经常会受到投资人的推动,要去招高管、扩充团队,或者你融了这么多钱,得花出去,得展示你对增长和建设世界级组织是认真的,诸如此类。结果你就招来了一群非常体面的人,简历非常漂亮,来自大科技公司——“哇,他们在 Google 做过这么了不起的事。“然后你把他们招进来,然后有一天你醒过来——“哦,天哪,一切都出了问题。“这其实不真的是谁的错,只是你把注意力从核心上移开了,这在首次创业的创始人身上经常发生。
Lenny Rachitsky: 那作为创始人,你怎么有时间做完所有这些事?你有什么指导建议吗?就像不要过度授权、不要过度招人?但你一天也就二十四小时。就是要挤出时间、做好优先级排序,还是有更多的东西?
Dalton Caldwell: 我觉得如果你真的非常在乎你的客户、非常在乎你的产品,你的直觉对于时间该花在哪里其实是很准的。比如说,花大量大量时间去和投资人混在一起、做社交,这大概是我会砍掉的事情。你懂我意思吧?这就是我们之前聊过的。如果你真心热爱你正在做的事,没人需要告诉你如何重新安排时间的优先级。你的直觉会告诉你所有时间应该花在哪里——那就是痴迷于产品。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我喜欢这个建议。
创业公司失败的原因
Lenny Rachitsky: 你现在的同事——注意是现在的同事,不是前同事——Gustav 之前也上过这个播客。他那期节目目前是我们史上收视率第四高的单集,所以——没有压力。
Dalton Caldwell: 哦,酷。好吧。我不知道我能不能达到那个水准。行吧。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我觉得你可以的。我之前问过他,创业公司失败最常见的原因是什么?他的回答是,他们不跟客户交谈,找不到 product-market fit。如果做不到这一点,其他一切都不重要。所以他的建议就是:更频繁地跟客户交谈。那么这里有两个问题。首先,关于创业公司为什么失败,你还有什么要补充的吗?我知道我们已经聊过其中一些了,就说说你脑海里冒出来的?
Dalton Caldwell: 我完全同意 Gustav 说的,但我想换一个角度来看这个问题——我觉得是创始人丧失了希望。当你内心深处觉得”是的,我们在失败”,我能看出来。我在跟创始人开会的时候,能看出他们是已经认命了觉得自己在失败,还是那种”我们还有一招,我们还能再试一次”的状态。你可以从他们眼里看到,当他们觉得自己还有想法、还有什么孤注一掷的办法时。这招不一定每次都管用,但关键在于你不能接受自己要失败这件事。只要你还不接受,通常还有很多招可以去尝试挽救公司。也许是实现盈利,也许是做点别的疯狂的事,也许是推出一个新产品。
所以我认为,那种”他们弹药充足、士气高昂,然后钱花完了就死了”的情况,其实相当罕见。这比创始人想象的要少见得多。更常见的情况是,他们其实还剩一些钱——不一定很多,但有一些——然后就觉得”行吧,我不干了。我没招了。我不想再搞了。“当然,这也完全可以理解。但你明白我的意思吧?我觉得创始人害怕的是钱花完了所以不得不关门,但更常见的情况是,他们的想法行不通,然后跟联合创始人大吵一架,无法就下一步做什么达成一致,然后就”我不想再搞了”,于是关门。这才是最常见的死因——听起来就是这样一个故事。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这太有意思了。而且这又回到了你的核心建议——别死,就是别死。我们之前聊过这个,也说有时候其实是可以死的。我想再重温一下这个道理,就是如果你已经不再享受这个过程了,也许是可以……
Dalton Caldwell: 是的,你没招了,你觉得”我到此为止了”。如果你内心深处真的觉得到此为止了,你不需要继续硬撑。没有人会从中受益。
Lenny Rachitsky: 而且你现在已经见过足够多的案例了,你也分享过一些,就是所有希望似乎都已经破灭,但他们坚持下去了,最后变成了巨大的成功故事。我觉得大多数人没见过那些例子。你能不能分享一下这种情况发生的频率有多高?你看到这种扭转局面的情况有多频繁?
Dalton Caldwell: 我想说,如果我们把”公司经历了濒死体验——情况很糟,创始人认真地在想是不是一切都完了”作为定义的话,那百分之百的创始人都会经历这个阶段,创始人会觉得”嗯,我觉得我们完了,我觉得该收摊了”。至少在创业旅程的某个时刻你会有这种感觉,每个人都经历过。当然,程度有轻重之分,有些人的确走到了非常非常艰难的境地。即便如此,这个比例仍然很高,可能有 50%。我的意思是,你可以去问创始人,有很多创始人都是差一点点就全盘皆输了,纯粹靠意志力硬撑过来的。
如何有效与客户交谈
Lenny Rachitsky: 我想这对很多创始人来说是非常鼓舞人心的——知道每一个创始人都经历过”好吧,我觉得这次真的完了”这个阶段。紧接着这个话题,Gustav 分享的那条建议是关于跟客户交谈的。我打算继续从你脑子里挖智慧出来。关于如何有效地跟客户交谈,你有什么建议吗?我们总听到”跟客户交谈,做他们想要的东西”,说起来容易做起来难。你会收到大量需求。一个客户跟你要求很多东西。有大公司说”你们做这个东西,我们付一百万美元。“你有没有一些通用的指导原则,关于应该关注什么、应该做什么、应该避免什么?
Dalton Caldwell: 有的。我跟很多有志创业的人聊这个话题时,他们会说”嗯嗯嗯,跟客户交谈嘛,我们懂了,知道了。“我就问,“好,那你跟多少客户交谈了?“他们就”呃……”,然后变得非常沉默。我觉得这就像是那种”你应该健康饮食、每天锻炼”之类的建议——人人都知道,但不代表人人都会去做。所以我觉得,首先你得走出去,面对面地跟人交谈。你不能只躲在键盘后面就把那叫作”跟客户交谈”。很多人的倾向是做一个落地页,买一些 Instagram 广告,试图让人注册什么东西。这可能也算是一种方式,但我觉得很多人这么做,本质上就是因为害羞,不想把自己暴露出去,因为去跟陌生人交谈有点尴尬。
你必须逼自己走出家门到真实世界中去,约人见面,让他们认真对待你,给他们看你正在做的产品。所以这里说一个非常实操的建议:你可以做一个自我评估——过去一个月里,你和潜在客户有过多少次面对面的线下会面?也许你做得很多,我不知道,听众朋友,也许你确实做了,但让我震惊的是,我跟很多公司聊的时候,他们会说”嗯,我们正在集中精力先融完 pre-seed 轮,然后再去跟客户聊。“诸如此类。我觉得最核心、最核心的问题就是社交焦虑和怕出丑。你必须跨过这个坎。你就是要开始做,一直做到不再觉得难受为止。想想 Airbnb 的创始人当时得有多尴尬——他们去跟人说”嘿,你应该把房子租出来,然后我要去你家睡,这里有个充气床垫。“整件事都挺尴尬的,对吧?所以你必须克服跟人交谈时的那种尴尬感,一旦你开始做了,其实会变得很有趣。一旦你习惯了克服这种尴尬,你在跟客户交谈方面就会做得好得多。
Lenny Rachitsky: 当一个人做了这种自我评估之后,有没有什么经验法则能告诉你”够了”?你看重什么?有没有一个数字?每周多少个?每月多少个?
Dalton Caldwell: 说实话,我不确定能不能给出一个具体的数字。我觉得你可以看看自己的日历——应该有 20% 到 30% 的时间,日历上写的是类似”客户会议”、“客户电话”、“跟某某人见面”这样的内容。如果你的日历不是这样的,或者全都是……再说一次,如果你实际做的只是买广告来验证自己的想法,我不认为那是在跟客户交谈,那完全是另一回事。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个经验法则太好了。也就是说,至少大约五分之一的时间应该花在跟客户交谈上。
Dalton Caldwell: 对。当然,这也取决于你所处的赛道。有些领域需要多一些,有些少一些。总之,应该占相当一部分时间。而且,没有什么能替代真正的对话——光盯着分析面板是不行的。
成功与客户沟通的创业公司案例
Lenny Rachitsky: 非常有道理。Airbnb 是一个经典案例——他们专门跑到纽约去跟房东面对面聊。你还能想到其他在这方面做得特别好的创业公司吗?就是那种找到了非常巧妙的方式、非常有拼劲地去跟客户交谈的?
Dalton Caldwell: 嗯,其实我们前面提到过的一些公司就是例子。比如 Brex,他们就是跟自己同一批次的创业者聊天,效果非常好。Retool 也是类似——他们就在 YC 网络内部把产品卖出去了。我觉得 Zip 的话,他们简直像猛兽一样,疯狂地约企业上电话聊采购的问题。他们花在客户沟通上的时间远远超过 20%。你看他们的日历,天哪,他们真的花了大量时间跟客户交谈,用来打造第一个产品,而且在产品做出来之前就开始预售了。PostHog 也差不多,虽然他们的推向市场方式不太一样——他们一开始是开源项目,日历上全是那些想部署第一个开源版本的人,或者对 PostHog 非常兴奋的用户。Hacker News 上的人也很激动,一下子涌入大量对 PostHog 的出现感到兴奋的用户,提供了很多反馈和网页报告。反馈不全是正面的,但他们从来不缺愿意跟他们交谈的人,这对他们非常有帮助。
Lenny Rachitsky: 关于 Zip,我在自己的”如何打造 B2B 创业公司”系列文章里其实写了他们的很多故事。你大概也知道,他们做的事情就是在 LinkedIn 上给人打电话、发私信,问人家”嘿,我们想了解一下你对目前的采购产品有什么看法”,然后这些人最后就成了早期的 beta 测试用户。我记得他们做了几百次这样的沟通。就是不停地——
Dalton Caldwell: 对,完全就是数字游戏。他们就是在这方面拼命磨。所以,确实做得非常好。
Lenny Rachitsky: 另一个经典的 YC 故事是 Collison……Collison Install,好像是这么叫的?
Dalton Caldwell: Collison Install。
Lenny Rachitsky: 哦,Collison Install。好,你能简单讲讲这个故事吗?
Dalton Caldwell: Collison Install 讲的是一种常见的情况:客户说”好,我要买你们的产品”,然后就不实施了,直接沉默了。没有部署,没有上线。如果你卖软件给别人,这非常糟糕。他们永远不实施的话,就会流失。你基本上是在最后一码线上失败了。所以他们开发了这个策略——“哦,我正好在附近,我顺路去你办公室帮你把 Stripe 接上去。“再说一次,这有点像我们之前说的那种尴尬,但你会说”对,我正好在附近,要不我顺路过去一趟?“然后他们就到了,说”太好了,能打开你的编辑器吗?""哦好的。""我来操作可以吗?键盘给我?“他们就笑着把 Stripe 装到客户的网站里,态度亲切又得体。装完后就说”好了,那我们能把网站上线了吗?“他们基本上就是不达目的不罢休,直到你把 Stripe 完全实施好为止。而且这确实是真正有帮助的,因为他们提供了全套的 white glove service 来帮你完成部署。这非常有效。我觉得这个故事的启示是:即便客户说了”好”,你的销售工作其实还没完成。你必须走完最后一英里,让产品真正落地部署。他们在这方面做得非常出色。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个故事太精彩了。现在 Stripe 已经是千亿美元级别的企业了,而一切就是这样开始的。
Dalton Caldwell: 是啊。我当时就是我自己的创业公司最早一批 Stripe 客户之一。Patrick 会……那时候我们用 Google Talk,Patrick 每周都会给我发消息,就为了跟进一下。所以你会发现,这些后来极其成功的人,当初也是这样亲力亲为的。Patrick 对他所有的客户都非常亲力亲为,随叫随到。我之所以能这么说,是因为我就是其中之一。
Lenny Rachitsky: 而且我相信他做这些事的时候也一定有社交焦虑吧。不断去推动别人安装和部署你的软件,这不是一件让人舒服的事情。
Dalton Caldwell: 肯定不舒服。但如果你想让自己的创业公司成功,这就是你必须做的事。这就是代价。
成功创业者的共同特质
Lenny Rachitsky: 接下来这个问题可能比较宽泛,我也不知道你是否有答案——你还能观察到其他什么模式吗?在那些做得好的创业公司中,有没有什么共同之处?这可能是那个价值六千四百万美元的问题:创始人做了什么,最终导向了成功?
Dalton Caldwell: 我觉得性格类型并没有那么重要。我见过非常安静的人,也见过非常外向的人,各种各样的人都见过。所以对我个人而言,我不认为存在某种应该去模仿的性格类型——“我得像这个人一样,我得像 Steve Jobs,我得像 Elon。“我不太相信这个,因为差异实在太大了。DoorDash 的 Tony 跟很多人都不一样,Rujul 也完全不同,Whatnot 的 Grant 也是。这些都是非常、非常不同的人。Patrick 也是一种不同类型的人。Flexport 的 Ryan 也是。这些人的性格类型差异非常大。但我认为,那些打造出真正大型公司的创始人,有一个共同点:他们真的非常渴望成功,真的相信自己,真的相信自己做得到。在他们的内心深处,有一种东西在说”我就是那个人,我绝不接受这件事做不成。”
哪怕客观上有各种数据不断涌来——这不奏效,这很糟糕,员工想辞职,高管想辞职,不管是什么——在他们内心深处,始终在说”我一定能做成,这家公司会变得很大。“他们就是相信。那种内在的引力如此强大,以至于扭曲了周围的世界,让一切都屈服于他们的意志。周围的人也开始相信,因为他们自己信得太深了——他们说服了自己的员工,说服了身边所有的人,让大家相信这一切一定会实现。所以我再说一次,这不是性格特质,我认为这是一种核心信念。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太有意思了。而且这跟我们之前聊的内容紧密相连——不要死,不要对你正在做的事情失去希望。听到这些的创始人可能会觉得”天啊,我不确定自己是否真的相信这件事一定能成。“根据你的经验,他们内心有多确定、多确信,跟他们在外部需要展现出的自信,这两者之间的比例大概是怎样的?
信念是逐步建立的
Dalton Caldwell: 我觉得他们在内心深处是确信的。对,我不觉得这是一种外在表现。但这里有一个很大的”但是”——在早期阶段,当你还没有一个好的想法、没有客户、客观上一切都不奏效的时候,没有人会有这种感觉。所以再说一次,我知道很多创始人会说,“我没有那种感觉。天啊,也许我是个冒牌货,我不应该创业。“当然,如果你既没有跟任何客户聊过,也没有做出产品,你当然不会有那种感觉。但通常的情况是,你会转型到一个好的想法——你从一个你在乎的好想法、你在乎的客户群开始,然后发布产品。产品做得越好,你就越痴迷于自己的公司。
以 Stripe 为例,我不想替 Patrick 讲他的故事,但我记得他曾说过,在 Stripe 成立的头一两年里,他其实并没有那么确信这件事一定能成。直到它开始跑通了,他们才真正相信它。他并不是某天早上醒来就断言”Stripe 就是那个方向,一定能成。“我认为信念是逐步建立的——你会有一种网络效应般的正反馈循环:越多客户向你反馈、越多数据向你证明你走在正确的轨道上,你的信念就越强。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这跟 Scott Belsky 在我们那一期节目里分享的完全一致。我问他什么时候该转型,他的标准就是:你对”这件事能成”的信念是随时间增强还是减弱?所以我喜欢我们刚才建立的这个关联。好,我们已经聊了这么多创业公司失败的方式——坏想法、焦油坑式想法。现在我想翻到另一面,聊聊好的创业想法。最近你们发布了一份 Request for Startups,基本上就是 20 个你们想要资助的创业方向,也就是 YC 想要资助的方向。你能分享一些你感兴趣的想法吗?你们基本上是在寻找愿意投身其中的创始人。
YC 的 Request for Startups
Dalton Caldwell: 好。我们发布这份 Request for Startups,是为了激励大家也许可以带着一些我们平时不太常见的想法来申请。它不是规定性的——不是说我们只会资助列表上的想法,完全不是。还记得我之前聊到的信息食谱吗?我们就是想丰富一下信息食谱,让大家思考一些可能从未考虑过的创业方向。所以,我们放上去的几个方向中,我做了一个关于 ERP 的——就是企业资源规划(Enterprise Resource Planning)软件。我之所以提这个,是因为我收到的相关申请极少,但通常质量都不错。我很希望有更多人去看看这个领域,了解一下 ERP 是什么,因为申请这个方向的人实在太少了。我有一种感觉,接下来我们会看到更多做这个方向的项目。效果正如预期——它把这个想法空间介绍给了那些甚至不知道 ERP 是什么的创始人。现在他们会去了解它。
我们还希望资助开源公司,这也是 RFS 里的一个方向。如果更多带着开源想法的人来申请 YC,我觉得我们会非常兴奋。也许创始人之前没意识到这也是我们愿意资助的方向。航天公司也一样——对,我们在航天公司方面有很多成功案例。现在真正在做航天的事情的人里,有好几家不是 SpaceX,而是 YC 的公司。我觉得有时候创始人会觉得这些想法太大胆、太有野心了,但不是的,我很希望更多人带着航天公司来申请。所以你可以这样理解:我们在尝试推出一些想法空间,也许有人曾下意识地把这些方向从”好的创业想法”候选中过滤掉了。希望这能为他们打开一片新的创业构思空间。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我们会在节目笔记里放这个页面的链接,供大家探索。我快速再念几个:消灭癌症的方法——没什么大不了的;空间计算;新型国防技术;制造业回流美国。所以很多是硬科学、深科技方向,这可能是一个比较新的——我不知道,我猜你们过去也投过这些,但感觉像是一种趋势。
Dalton Caldwell: 我们当然投过。所以这些不是说”哦,我们从来没投过这些方向”,更像是”嘿,如果我们能看到更多这类方向的申请就太好了。“会让人很开心,因为目前感觉还有点不足——在这些领域可以有更多的创业公司在做。
Lenny Rachitsky: 对,而不是焦油坑式想法。我快速再念几个——更好的企业胶水。
Dalton Caldwell: 对,我喜欢这个想法。
Lenny Rachitsky: 展开说说。这具体是什么样的?
Dalton Caldwell: 连接所有这些商业系统的软件通常都很脆弱、很粗糙。已经有很多不错的创业公司在解决这个问题,但我认为还有很大的改进空间。而且 LLM 很可能会带来提升——我们或许能创造出越来越好的胶水,让各种软件系统之间能够互相通信。同样,这是一个非常宽泛的方向。但我确实认为,我们会看到很多非常成功的公司,其最初的核心想法就源于此。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太好了。最后一个——小型微调模型,作为超大型通用模型的替代方案。好的。我们会在节目笔记里放这个链接,大家可以点击每一个方向看详细介绍。好,再最后几个问题。
Dalton Caldwell: 好。
早期硅谷的亲历回忆
Lenny Rachitsky: 一个是关于你的背景。据我所读到的资料,2000 年代初,你基本上跟一些如今最成功的人混在一起——像 Zuck、Reid Hoffman、Sam Altman、Elon、Sean Parker。那是在他们真正成为什么人物之前,后来他们都取得了巨大的成功。我很好奇,回顾那段经历,你有没有注意到这些后来非常成功的人之间有什么共同之处?
Dalton Caldwell: 回到 2003 年,身在硅谷、对创业感兴趣,那是一个非常小的圈子。就是没多少人对这些东西感兴趣。我记得我给 Reid Hoffman 发了一封冷邮件,当时 LinkedIn 只有 12 个员工,他直接回复了,说”哦,一起吃个午饭吧。“他也就是个普通人。其他所有在做——你可以称之为社交网络——的人,就是我认识的那些人。当时有几个你可以去的会议,到场的也就 30 个人。这让我想起关于家酿计算机俱乐部(Homebrew Computer Club)的故事。我不是说我们那个圈子有那么酷。但当我读到关于家酿计算机俱乐部那个年代的故事时,也是一小撮人,彼此都认识,是一群真正的怪人、局外人,痴迷于这些东西。在互联网泡沫破灭后的旧金山湾区创业圈,那种感觉就是如此。
Dalton Caldwell:
所以我并没有怎么去想这些人的性格特质。再说一遍,他们彼此之间其实挺不一样的,但那些后来成为真正大人物的人有一个共同点——就是非常有持久力。对吧?比如我认识 Sam 的时候,他已经从斯坦福退学去做 Loot 了,搞笑的是,那是一个帮你找到附近的人一起玩的应用。这里面有个有趣的主题,嗯?他挺酷的,一个非常年轻的小伙子,就这么干了。这东西没做多大。然后他又去做别的事情,后来进了 YC,后来又涉足了深科技,现在又重新把自己塑造成了 AI 背后的大脑,当然,很了不起。但如果我回想他当年的样子,是的,他就是一个 23 岁的年轻人,在做一款功能手机上找邻居朋友的工具。他们的客户是 Boost Mobile。我敢打赌你可以在 YouTube 上找到 Boost Mobile 为 Loot 做的那些广告,确实挺搞笑的。你看过那些广告吗?
Lenny Rachitsky:
没看过,但我会去看看。
Dalton Caldwell:
总之,挺搞笑的。所以,这就是真实的故事。然后,我记得我当时在帕洛阿尔托市中心,我的一些朋友跟 Sean Parker 也认识,这其实是在 Sean Parker 加入 Facebook 之前。他是 Napster 的成员。我有个朋友说,“哦,我们需要送我朋友去机场。“于是我就送 Sean Parker 去了奥克兰机场。再说一遍,他是什么样的人?我也不知道。他基本上就是坐在后座全程打电话。但我的观点是,我当时并没有觉得”哇,这些人将来会成为非常成功的大人物,有一天会在世界上举足轻重。“那感觉就是一群真正喜欢互联网和电脑的极客,在做自己感兴趣的事情,对此着迷不已。
他们不是那种纠结”我是不是该搬到纽约?“或者”也许我该去读法学院”的人。这些人完全投入在做互联网公司这件事上。所以你会看到这些人跨越多个时代不断重塑自己,对吧?比如 Reid Hoffman,他在 PayPal 工作过,对吧?然后做了 LinkedIn,然后又成了 VC。他经历了这么多不同的时代,虽然是同一个人,但几乎像是不同的角色,对吧?
职业 longevity 与性格多样性
Lenny Rachitsky:
这里面有很多有意思的启示。一个是,你的职业生涯很长,你会有机会做很多事情,而且你可以不断转换方向。以我自己为例,这是我的第四份职业了,我才意识到。我做过工程师,然后是创始人,然后是产品经理,现在就是这个工作,不管这算什么。我觉得这很常见。我觉得另一点,再次强调,就是关于性格类型的那个观点,我之前没有评论,但我觉得这一点非常重要——你可以非常内向并且非常成功,也可以非常外向并且非常成功。关键在于利用你的技能和优势去实现同样的目标。你不必是那种在 Steve Jobs 式的舞台上做精彩演讲的人。你可以用不同的方式做到同样的事情。然后另一点是,再次回到你只需要对你做的工作真正感到兴奋和享受,因为那会驱动你前进,让你获得成功。所以我喜欢这个故事,它几乎总结了你到目前为止分享的很多要点。
还有另外两个有趣的故事,也许挑一个讲讲。一个是你把你的创业公司卖给了 MySpace,你的工作基本上就是去拯救 MySpace。另一个是你是 Andreessen Horowitz 错失 Instagram、没能投资的原因。你想分享哪一个?
MySpace、Instagram 与阴差阳错
Dalton Caldwell:
嗯,其实是同一个故事。之所以是同一个故事,是因为我的第二家公司……基本上,我把第一家公司卖给了 MySpace,就是我做的那家音乐公司。他们招了一位新 CEO,之前是 Facebook 的 COO,叫 Owen Van Natta。所以,又是同一个圈子里的人。Owen 说,“好,我们需要拯救 MySpace。Rupert Murdoch 有资源有决心,他想让我来搞定它。我们干吧。你们想些点子出来。“我那时能想到的最好的点子,就是围绕移动端照片分享做点什么,类似 Twitter 但是以照片为主的东西。我觉得凭借 MySpace 的用户基数,这应该能行得通。那是 2010 年,正好是 App Store 起飞的时候,而我在 App Store 上用 imeem 取得了很大的成功,它是下载量最高的音乐应用之一。所以我觉得,“哇,App Store 真的很有前景。“我当时非常看好应用这个方向。
那时候 Facebook 还有点早。他们在尝试做跨平台的移动应用,如果你记得的话。他们的应用做得不怎么样。再说一遍,这是很久以前的事了。那就是我的计划。结果 Owen Van Natta 马上就被解雇了,所以我甚至都算不上正式入职。于是我就走了。我想我在 MySpace 就待了一个月,因为收购我公司的那个人被解雇了,我觉得整个组织架构都被清洗了。我都不知道该找谁谈。那真是一段很棒的经历。你懂我的意思吧?我真的不确定那时我的对接人是谁。我觉得他们自己也不知道。就是一团糟。
Lenny Rachitsky:
直接给 Tom 发消息就行了。
Dalton Caldwell:
不不,他早就不在了。说真的。我知道你在开玩笑。但是,说真的,我不知道那时候还有谁留下来。Tom 早就不在了。所以我想,“好吧,我应该做一个新的创业公司,做些跟我之前想的类似的东西。“于是我创办了这家公司,很快就能融到一轮天使投资,因为大家还记得我第一家公司做的事。我们的主要投资方是 Andreessen Horowitz。这是他们最早几笔拿到董事会席位之一的投资,Marc Andreessen 是我的董事会成员。再说一遍,关于这段经历我有自己的一堆故事,但那是一次很有意思的经历。我们上线了……我想我们获得了五十万还是一百万用户。你可以去找到相关的科技媒体报道。我们同时在 Android 和 iOS 上线,做的是移动端照片分享,实际上增长得还挺不错的。对吧?
然后发生的事情是,他们投资组合里还有一家公司叫 Bourbon,最早是一个 ForceWare 的克隆版,由两个人开发的。他们决定从那个方向转型,转到了……跟我做的挺类似的东西。再说一遍,这很正常,事情就是这样运作的。他们做了一件聪明的事。再说一遍,这只是我的说法,我不知道他们那边版本的故事是什么样的。但我觉得他们做得聪明的地方是,如果你看付费应用排行榜,第一名是 Hipstamatic,而 Hipstamatic 是要花钱的。那我们知道人们想要什么吗?他们想要免费的、本来要花钱的东西,对吧?所以他们基本上做了一个相当靠谱的 Hipstamatic 滤镜的仿制品,结合了社交图谱,然后发布了,很快就起飞了。当然这就是 Instagram。所以它非常快速地起飞了,对我来说那是一种很疯狂的体验——“哦,这个看起来挺眼熟的。”
基本上,因为 Andreessen Horowitz 投资了我的公司,还在董事会里,即使他们也是 Instagram 的投资方,这就构成了利益冲突,他们没有做那笔交易。然后不知怎么的,这件事变成了硅谷的一个大八卦,大家都在说”哇,真不敢相信这事发生了。“所以对我来说,作为一个创始人,正好处于一件在文化上如此重要的事件的中心,那真是一种非常诡异的体验。
Lenny Rachitsky:
我想 a16z 的人大概有一段时间把你当靶子了吧。
Dalton Caldwell:
哦,我其实觉得他们不在意。我不认为他们因此对我有什么芥蒂,因为我做错了什么呢?
Lenny Rachitsky:
确实。
Dalton Caldwell:
我创办了一家公司。你明白我的意思吧?当然他们会有一些沮丧,但我就是一个他们投资过的公司创始人。我不太觉得他们会对我有多大怨气。我觉得这就是生活本来的样子。
Lenny Rachitsky:
嗯,不知道他们之后有没有因此改变利益冲突的政策。
Dalton Caldwell:
我觉得没有。我觉得这种事后来还发生过好几次,不过那些不是我的故事,不便多说。
Lenny Rachitsky:
对了,我不确定你有没有提到你那家创业公司的名字,叫 PicPlz,对吧?
Dalton Caldwell:
对,叫 PicPlz。
反共识角:早期创业公司不需要增长黑客
Lenny Rachitsky:
好的。那么在进入非常令人期待的快问快答环节之前,还有最后一段。我有两个固定环节:失败角和反共识角。我们可以两个都做,也可以只挑一个。失败角是分享一段职业生涯中的失败经历以及从中学到了什么。反共识角是你有什么大多数人都不认同的观点。你想先做哪个?
Dalton Caldwell:
我觉得反共识角的话,我知道我想从哪里说起,而且我觉得这对你的听众很相关。你可以争辩说这不算反共识,但我的观点是这样的:我认为增长、增长黑客,还有做各种分析、A/B 测试这些东西,对于非常早期的创业公司来说完全是浪费时间。互联网上有大量创业建议,这也是我们开始在 YC 制作视频的原因之一——很多建议其实是面向后期公司的。比如”如何设置董事会""如何激励销售团队”,全都是面向 A 轮、B 轮创始人的,而不是种子轮阶段的创始人。问题是种子轮阶段的创始人会去消费这些后期建议,然后变得非常困惑。
我看到的反模式是,很多创始人非常熟悉你那些出色的内容——再说我真的很推荐,我很喜欢。但当你一个客户都没有的时候,你却在读 Lenny 关于如何设置分流测试、你在 Airbnb 如何做增长的指南——天哪,这太蠢了。完全帮不到你。于是你会看到创始人偏离了获取第一个客户、找到一个客户然后跟那个人交谈这件事,取而代之的是掌握了一堆复杂的增长黑客理论。我觉得如果你在大科技公司工作过也会出现这种情况,因为你的产品已经有了规模。如果你在 Facebook 工作,你的工作是上线新的小功能,那当然应该大量使用分析、A/B 测试、分流测试、功能开关,这完全说得通。但当你根本没有用户的时候,你在干什么呢?你觉得这算反共识吗?我的论点是,把这些建议套用在一个太早期的创业公司身上,不仅没有帮助,反而有害。
Lenny Rachitsky:
我觉得对很多人来说这确实是反共识的。我百分之百同意。这让我觉得需要在文章开头注明”这篇内容适合谁看”。如果你比这个阶段更早,就忽略它。如果你比这个阶段更晚,也忽略它。
Dalton Caldwell:
我再强调一下,我不是说你做错了什么。但想象一下,如果 Airbnb 最早的创始人在他们只有四个用户、每个用户名字都叫得出来的时候,把你现在所有的建议拿来用,还去搞什么复杂的增长黑客分流测试。
Lenny Rachitsky:
是的。也许可以澄清一下,你说增长黑客的时候——显然当你开始做一个东西,比如一个消费者应用,你总需要某种方式获取一批用户。你说不要做这类事情,但什么是可以做的?哪些属于不该做的,哪些属于可以做的?
如何获取第一批用户
Dalton Caldwell:
我觉得这取决于你的想法是什么。以 Whatnot 为例,它是一个消费者应用,需要获取用户。但他们对如何把一个市场平台做起来的指标非常诚实。他们并没有把钱全砸到 Instagram 广告上。他们清楚地知道需要专注于买家端,在买方建立势头。他们真的非常理解市场平台的运作方式。对于消费者领域,我认为需要有一种精细的理解,知道如何把一家消费者公司做起来。你看 Facebook 的故事,他们先在哈佛校园做到百分之百渗透,而不是一上来就全面开放。这确实是好策略,我会推荐这种策略。所以推而广之就是:搞清楚你的对标公司或公司类型是什么,然后看他们在从零到一阶段做了什么,忽略他们今天在做什么。对吧?如果你是一个刚起步的创业公司创始人,不要关注 Facebook 今天在做什么,去关注 Facebook 在获取他们前一千个用户时做了什么。那些才是你应该学习的策略。
Lenny Rachitsky:
我觉得这个话题值得单独做一期节目,专门聊怎么获取你的前一千个用户。我知道有一个视频我们会放到链接里,是 Gustav 制作的 YC 关于如何获取用户的建议。你想不想也去失败角看看?还是直接往下走?
失败角:不要让失败定义你
Dalton Caldwell:
我失败过很多事情。作为投资人,我做了很多糟糕的投资,当然也有好的。在我的创业公司里我也转型了很多次,很多事情没有做成。前面我刚刚给你讲了一个具体的故事——PicPlz 的故事。我学到的就是,你不能让这些事情太过打击你,你得继续走下去。如果你继续走下去,其实没多少人会记住那些失败,它们也不会真正定义你。对失败的恐惧不应该占据你所有的思绪。相反,你应该把精力和积极性用在继续做好工作上。因为回想当初,如果我当时说”好吧,看来创业不适合我,科技行业不适合我”,那我就不会有后面这些职业生涯了。我不会在 YC 工作,也不会在给公司做顾问,对吧?所以我生活中始终需要保持大量的乐观和精力,用这股动力驱动自己继续前进。这对我的帮助非常大。即使我尝试的很多东西没有成功,后来也继续不成功——我知道这些都是显而易见的道理,但显而易见不代表不是事实。
Lenny Rachitsky:
我觉得这是这里反复出现的主题,我很喜欢它是”如何不死”的又一个版本。创业公司本身不应该死,然后你自己的驱动力和积极性在事情不顺的时候也要继续前进、尝试新的东西。我很喜欢这里传递的所有反复出现的主题和信息。Dalton,在进入非常令人期待的快问快答环节之前,还有什么想对听众说的吗?
最后的建议:从客户验证开始
Dalton Caldwell:
我想最后再说一点:如果有人想做创业但不知道从哪里开始,我给你一个许可——去跟潜在客户交谈,尝试在写代码之前就把东西预售出去,先进行那些对话。很多人不知道创业该从哪里着手,我非常具体的建议是:先做客户验证,而不是先做 PowerPoint 演示文稿,也不是先去融资,或者其他什么事情。我觉得很多人并没有采用这个策略。基本上,如果你找到了真正兴奋的人,而且确实排到了愿意付费的客户,那就是一个极好的绿灯,说明是时候开始创业了,对吧?这就能让你走上正轨。所以这就是我的最终建议。
Lenny Rachitsky:
那么接下来,什么时候开始构建产品呢?是边跟客户聊边构建,还是先构建再聊?这基本上取决于——
Dalton Caldwell:
等你有了确信之后再开始构建,然后你会觉得,“哦,我觉得我能找到客户。我觉得至少会有一个人愿意用我想做的这个东西。至少一个。”
Lenny Rachitsky:
我很喜欢。我喜欢你所有建议中的简洁和务实。Dalton,欢迎来到非常令人期待的快问快答环节。我有六个问题问你。准备好了吗?
Dalton Caldwell:
来吧。
快问快答
**Lenny Rachitsky:**你最常推荐给别人的两三本书是什么?
Dalton Caldwell:
我觉得很多创始人害怕做销售,不知道怎么做销售,觉得自己需要非常有经验的销售教练,需要各种培训。我会说,“那你去亚马逊上找最畅销的销售类书籍,比如人人都在读的《Getting to Yes》,读了那些书就能帮你搞定百分之八十了。“你明白我的意思吗?他们想花几百万美元请人来做销售辅导。我说,“那你读过那些最基本的销售书籍了吗?“他们说,“没有。“所以我觉得这是一个低成本的方法——上亚马逊,找到《Getting to Yes》和其他几本最畅销的,名字我一时想不起来了,读了那些,这就是你成为优秀销售人员的速成课。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**很好。还有一本叫《Founding Sales》的书,你应该也熟悉吧。Pete Kazanjy 上过我的播客聊过那本书,这也是我一直推荐的,因为就是讲”创始人怎么做销售”。
**Dalton Caldwell:**从那本开始就行。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**从那本开始。很好,我们会放上链接。
喜欢的影视作品
**Lenny Rachitsky:**你有没有最近特别喜欢、非常享受的电影或电视剧?
Dalton Caldwell:
这也许不是你问的那种答案,但我很喜欢看老剧,所以我一直在反复重看《The Sopranos》和《The Wire》,每次看都有不同的感受。我觉得还有一个更傻的答案——我最近一直在看《Columbo》的老剧集,那是七十年代和八十年代的电视剧。我也不知道为什么,我甚至不确定这是不是有点不务正业,但不知道怎么回事,我现在特别迷这个。就是《Columbo》的那些非常老的剧集。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**你是一个老灵魂,Dalton。
**Dalton Caldwell:**也许吧。我也不知道。看这些东西就像坐上了时光机,回到了一个不同的时代。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**这绝对可能是迄今为止最独特的回答之一了。
**Dalton Caldwell:**确实。
Lenny Rachitsky:《Columbo》。
**Dalton Caldwell:**嗯,我不是想给你一个听起来特别聪明的答案——
**Lenny Rachitsky:**不,我很喜欢这个。
**Dalton Caldwell:**我告诉你的是真实的答案。所以那确实是我正在看的东西。
面试创始人的方式
**Lenny Rachitsky:**这听起来其实非常精致聪明。你有没有一个最喜欢的面试问题?在这个语境下,大概是问创始人的?
Dalton Caldwell:
我不太相信什么刁钻的问题。我通常就从”嘿,跟我说说你在做什么”开始。或者”你从开始到现在学到了什么?“再说一次,这些都不是刁钻的问题,但我觉得通过问最直截了当、最基本的问题,把它当作一块白板让对方来回答,你能得到最诚实、最有趣的答案。你明白我的意思吗?所以我喜欢用最简单的提示,让他们把对话带到他们想去的方向。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**我知道这可能是一个很大的问题,但你从他们的回答中寻找什么,能让你判断这是一个好的还是不好的回答?
**Dalton Caldwell:**你是指 YC 面试吗?
**Lenny Rachitsky:**对。我知道这本身就能单独做一期播客了。
Dalton Caldwell:
我觉得是能看出他们是否真的认真思考过这个问题的证据。就像我之前说的,他们做了研究,他们有自己的观点,他们对这件事有热情。有时候人们回答问题时,你就能感觉出来那些回答非常肤浅,他们没有在答案中投入太多心思和灵魂。
最近喜欢的产品
**Lenny Rachitsky:**很好。你有没有最近发现的、特别喜欢的产品?
Dalton Caldwell:
我喜欢我的 Oura 戒指和 Apple Watch 之类的。我一直都是粉丝。有一家 YC 公司叫 SiPhox,S-I-P-H-O-X,我刚注册了,他们做居家血液检测。基本上我在尝试把那个居家血液检测的东西和我其他所有设备同步起来。我不知道该怎么说。我真的非常喜欢 Apple 和其他创业公司以及 YC 公司在个人健康领域正在做的各种东西。所以这些就是我现在很感兴趣的产品。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**SiPhox。好的。等等,那你要自己扎针抽血什么的吗?
Dalton Caldwell:
就是一个很小很小的针。一点都不疼。取几滴血,在家里操作,然后寄过去,它就会做各种血液检测。真的很酷。嗯,这属于那种我先看到了产品,后来才发现,“哦等等,那是一家 YC 公司。“基本上我先成了用户,然后很高兴地发现它是一家 YC 公司。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**我想我找到了。网址是 siphoxhealth.com。
**Dalton Caldwell:**对,这个名字说起来很顺口吧?嗯,就叫这个。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**很酷。好的,我看到了那个小针。好的,很棒。支持 SiPhox。好的,还有两个问题。
人生信条
**Lenny Rachitsky:**你有没有一个经常回到的、在工作或生活中觉得有用、会分享给朋友的人生座右铭?
Dalton Caldwell:
就是时不时问问自己,你是否在享受乐趣,是否喜欢自己正在做的事情。如果不喜欢,你可能应该做出改变,不管那是什么改变。再者,如果你是创始人,你有掌控权,你可以改变自己的公司。但我觉得很多人在生活中从未问过自己这个问题——我快乐吗?我享受吗?我觉得我花时间做的事情有价值吗?我觉得你可以一次又一次地回到这个问题上来,把它作为决定如何度过人生的一个很好的提示。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**在很多情况下,做出改变说起来容易做起来难,但一切始于意识到,好吧,这其实不是我——
**Dalton Caldwell:**对,对自己诚实。“嗯,我不是很喜欢这个。“然后试着去想,“那我该怎么改变呢?“跟自己进行这样的对话。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**是的。这让我想起 Steve Jobs 的一句名言——如果你一天又一天地醒来,偶尔有些天觉得”我不想做这个”,那没关系。但如果每一天都是这样,而且持续发生,那就是一个信号,你应该做出改变了。
推荐播客节目
**Dalton Caldwell:**没错。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**最后一个问题。你和 Michael Seibel 一起做的那个播客非常精彩。如果有人想去听听看,深入了解一下,你有没有最喜欢的一期,可以推荐他们从这里开始?
**Dalton Caldwell:**要看情况。有些节目更适合已经有创业公司、正在解决各种问题的人。比如一些关于投资人之类的主题,很明显目标听众就是现任创业公司创始人。还有很多内容更偏向人生建议,关于如何做决策、如何思考。这些内容出人意料地很受欢迎,在非创业创始人群体中获得了大量观看,这是一个令人愉快的惊喜。所以对于目前不是创业创始人的听众,我会推荐这些。比如说”顶级创始人的人生建议”,我觉得那个不错——
**Lenny Rachitsky:**哦,是那个来自亿万富翁的?是那期吗?
**Dalton Caldwell:**对对,那期挺受欢迎的。所以我会先判断一下:我是现任创始人,面临创始人特有的问题?还是我只是想听一些通用的人生哲学类问题?我个人很喜欢那些哲学类的。我们还有一期面向高中生的,内容是给对创业感兴趣的高中生的建议,告诉你应该思考些什么。目标受众确实比较窄,但我很喜欢那期,因为我们真的是在直接对那群人说话,而且我觉得那些建议相当不错。
尾声
**Lenny Rachitsky:**Dalton,你太棒了。谢谢你分享了这么多智慧。这期内容干货满满。我非常期待创始人们听到这期节目。我觉得它会对很多人的人生产生很大的影响。最后两个问题。如果有人想在线上找到你,跟进今天聊到的内容,去哪里找?以及听众怎样才能帮到你?
**Dalton Caldwell:**我在 Twitter/X.com 上,用户名是 Dalton.C。我的 LinkedIn 也还行,挺受欢迎的。直接在 LinkedIn 上搜我的名字就行。欢迎大家来找我聊聊。至于大家能怎么帮忙,老实说,看到有人愿意申请 YC、去创业,我就很高兴了。所以欢迎大家去看更多视频,申请 YC。我这份工作有一个特别之处,就是我有幸资助一些公司,而这些创始人是通过视频认识我的,他们会很惊讶地发现我居然跟视频里一模一样。他们基本上会说,“哇,你就是我一直看的那个视频里的人,你居然真的跟视频里看起来一模一样,太酷了。“所以基本上,如果大家喜欢我说的内容,喜欢这些视频,并且申请 YC,我很乐意资助他们的公司。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**Dalton,非常感谢你来做客。
**Dalton Caldwell:**不客气。非常感谢,Lenny。感激不尽。
**Lenny Rachitsky:**大家再见。非常感谢收听。如果你觉得这期节目有价值,可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或你最喜欢的播客应用上订阅。也请考虑给我们评分或留下评论,这真的能帮助其他听众找到这档播客。你可以在 Lennyspodcast.com 找到所有往期节目或了解更多关于这档节目的信息。下期再见。
术语表
| 原文 | 中文 |
|---|---|
| a16z | a16z(Andreessen Horowitz 的简称,知名风险投资机构) |
| Airbnb | Airbnb(知名短租住宿平台) |
| angel round | 天使轮 |
| B2B | B2B(Business to Business,企业对企业) |
| batch | 批次(YC 的创业项目按期分组) |
| board seat | 董事会席位 |
| Collison Install | Collison Install(Collison 兄弟开创的上门帮客户部署产品的销售策略) |
| Columbo | 《Columbo》(七十至八十年代经典侦探剧《神探哥伦坡》) |
| decacorn | 十角兽(估值超过百亿美元的创业公司) |
| deep tech | 深科技 |
| DoorDash | DoorDash(美国知名外卖配送平台) |
| ERP | ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning,企业资源规划) |
| fine tune | fine tune(微调) |
| Flexport | Flexport(知名数字货运代理平台) |
| Founding Sales | 《Founding Sales》(面向创始人的销售实战指南) |
| Funko Pops | Funko Pops(一种流行收藏级潮玩公仔) |
| Getting to Yes | 《Getting to Yes》(经典谈判与销售类书籍) |
| Hacker News | Hacker News(知名科技资讯与讨论社区) |
| Homebrew Computer Club | 家酿计算机俱乐部(Homebrew Computer Club) |
| incumbent | 在位者(市场中已有的占据主导地位的公司) |
| information diet | 信息食谱(一个人获取信息的来源和习惯组合) |
| LLM | LLM(Large Language Model,大语言模型) |
| Milk | Milk(Lenny Bogdonoff 创办的创业公司) |
| Mixpanel | Mixpanel(知名产品分析平台) |
| music discovery | 音乐发现(帮助用户发现新音乐的功能或产品方向) |
| NPS | NPS(Net Promoter Score,净推荐值) |
| office hours | 办公时间(YC 合伙人与创业者定期会面指导的时间段) |
| Oura ring | Oura 戒指(一种智能健康追踪戒指) |
| Patrick | Patrick(指 Patrick Collison,Stripe 联合创始人) |
| Pete Kazanjy | Pete Kazanjy(《Founding Sales》作者) |
| pivoting | 转型 |
| pre-seed | pre-seed(种子轮之前的极早期融资阶段) |
| product-market fit | product-market fit(产品与市场的契合度) |
| Razorpay | Razorpay(印度知名支付处理平台) |
| Request for Startups | Request for Startups(创业创意征集) |
| RFS | RFS(Request for Startups 的缩写) |
| Scott Belsky | Scott Belsky(Behance 创始人、Adobe 首席产品官) |
| Series B | B 轮融资 |
| SiPhox | SiPhox(居家血液检测服务公司) |
| staying power | 持久力 |
| Steve Jobs | Steve Jobs(苹果公司联合创始人) |
| TAM | TAM(Total Addressable Market,总可寻址市场) |
| tar pit ideas | 焦油坑式想法(看似诱人却会困住创业者的创业方向) |
| The Sopranos | 《The Sopranos》(经典美剧《黑道家族》) |
| The Wire | 《The Wire》(经典美剧《火线》) |
| Visiting Partner | 访问合伙人 |
| Whatnot | Whatnot(知名直播购物与收藏品交易平台) |
| white glove service | white glove service(白手套服务,即全方位贴心的高端客户服务) |
| YC | YC(Y Combinator,知名创业加速器) |
此文档由 AI 分片翻译(translate_long_document)