460亿美元的残酷真相:为什么创始人会失败,以及为什么你应该直面恐惧 | Ben Horowitz (a16z)
$46B of hard truths: Why founders fail and why you need to run toward fear | Ben Horowitz (a16z)
Hard Choices for Leaders
Ben Horowitz: The worst thing that you do as a leader is you hesitate on the next decision. The thing that causes you to hesitate is both decisions are horrible. Probably one of my bigger ones on that was we went public with $2 million in trailing 12 months revenue at 18 months old. That’s obviously a bad idea. But the truth of it was the alternative was going bankrupt, and that’s a worse idea.
Good vs. Bad Product Managers
Lenny Rachitsky: It’s a very difficult and painful to be a CEO, to be a founder. In spite of that. So many people want to start companies.
Ben Horowitz: The psychological muscle you have to build to be a great leader is to be able to click in the abyss and go, “Okay, that way’s slightly better. We’re going to go that way. If everybody agrees with the decision, then you didn’t add any value because they would’ve done that without you.” So the only value you ever add is when you make a decision that most people don’t like.
Introducing the Guest
Lenny Rachitsky: You are famous for writing one of the most popular pieces of literature for product managers.
Ben Horowitz: What I was trying to get out in Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager, was the job is fundamentally a leadership job. And it’s a tricky leadership job because nobody is actually reporting to you.
A Lesson in Success
Lenny Rachitsky: There’s always this kind of sense that the PM is not the mini CEO. How dare you call yourself that? I actually think that’s exactly what the PM is.
Ben Horowitz: It doesn’t matter if you write a good, spec or you have a good interview or you do this or do that. What matters is that the product works.
Running Toward Fear
Lenny Rachitsky: Today my guest is Ben Horowitz. Ben is the Z in A16Z, the world’s largest venture capital firm with over 46 billion in committed capital. They’re investors in OpenAI, Cursor, Andrel, Databricks, Figma, basically every generational tech company. He’s also the author of two New York Times bestselling books, the Hard Thing About Hard Things and What You Do is Who you are.
Ben is endlessly fascinating. He started a rap group when he was younger. He started his career as a product manager and wrote the now famous Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager piece. In our wide-ranging conversation, we cover a ton of ground and Ben shares stories and insights that he’s never shared anywhere else. A huge thank you to Shaka Senghor, Ali Goetze, and Adam Newman for suggesting topics for this conversation. If you enjoy this podcast, don’t forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube. It helps tremendously. And if you become an annual subscriber of my newsletter, you get a year free of 15 incredible products, including a year free of Lovable, Replit, Bolt, n8n, Linear, Superhuman, DScript, WhisperFlow, Gamma, Perplexity, Warp, Granola, Magic Patterns, RateCast, ChatPRD, and Mabin. Check it out at lennysnewsletter.com and click Product Pass. With that, I bring you Ben Horowitz.
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Ben, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.
Ben Horowitz: All right, thank you Lenny. Excited to be here.
Early CEO Roadblocks
Lenny Rachitsky: I’m even more excited to have you here.
I want to start with a question that a close friend of yours suggested I ask you, Shaka Senghor. So Shaka, he’s, we could do an hour just on how interesting this guy and the things he’s done.
The Essence of Leadership
Ben Horowitz: Three hours on Joe Rogan that day. He is very-
Who Shouldn’t Start a Company
Lenny Rachitsky: So we’re not going to do that. Just to give a glimpse, he was in prison for 19 years. He was in solitary for seven years. He led a huge prison gang. You wrote about him in your book as a great exemplar of great culture in the prison gang that he ran. So interesting. But something that he learned from you that he told me I need to ask you about is about success and how to be successful and how it’s not what people think. And he said that you learned this lesson from a pilot. What is that story? What is that lesson?
Ben Horowitz: I mean, I would say it’s a long life lesson. But the pilot story is I actually, I ask people silly questions sometimes when they meet them. And so I met this gentleman who was a pilot and it was right around the time JFK Jr. crashed his airplane and ultimately died. And I asked him, I was like, “What happened?” Because there’s always the story in the press, and I know this from them writing about me or anything, is it’s always what’s the best narrative not what’s true. So you can never actually find out what happened, you just find the best story version of what happened.
And the story in the press was all about, “Oh, he wasn’t trained on instrumentation was flying at night.” And I wanted to know is that right? And the pilot said, “Well,” he said, “really, it’s like all plane crashes are a series of bad decisions. And none of the decisions by themselves is that bad, but when you add them up, it’s bad.”
So the first decision was he needed to get wherever he was going and that was the priority. And in flying, that can’t ever be the priority because there are conditions, there are things that happen. And then the second one was, “Well, his timing of when the sun would go down was wrong.” So he thought he’d be flying in sunlight and he wasn’t. And then once he got up there, it was when the plane was going down making it go up was a bad decision because he was upside down. And so it was like, I can’t remember all the things, but this guy had 17 bad decisions in a row. And the big thing for me that I felt was really true is it’s one decision leads to another. And so if you can break psychologically, you can take the sunk cost, then that gets you out of a lot of bad paths. And then a little good decision may be difficult, but you have to believe it’s going to lead to the next one. And a lot of success is about that. It’s a small thing, a small thing that’s hard to do that doesn’t seem to have a high impact, but it leads to the next small hard to do thing and then eventually you get an outcome, so that was kind of the concept.
Mission First or Opportunity?
Lenny Rachitsky: So the lesson there is just success is just a bunch of little things. It’s not this, “Cool, I got here in a big thing.”
Ben Horowitz: If somebody were to write a story about me, they would be like, “Then Ben this really smart thing and blah, blah, blah, happy ending.” But it really wasn’t like that and I don’t think it’s like that for you or anybody. And I spent a lot of time with Shaka on how, because it’s always your own psychology that gets you. And one of the most insightful things he said to me is, because most people who are in solitary for seven years, that’s it. You’re insane. You’re never coming back from that. It’s just an impossible thing. But if you study his story, he actually really was massively self-improved coming out of solitary, and he wouldn’t recommend that for anybody, just to be clear. It wasn’t solitary. But what it was was he changed, in solitary he was able to change a big set of beliefs that he had about himself that got him out of that.
And the thing that his conclusion from it, which I thought was really interesting, he’s like, “Look, was in prison for 19 years. I was in solitary for seven. I come out, I can’t rent an apartment, I can’t vote, I can’t get a gun, I can’t do, no rights. None of that was anything compared to what I did to myself.”
And I think that’s very true for CEOs in general and people in general is all the things that you perceive that are happening to you that are bad, be it the systems against you or somebody undercuts you or racism or sexism or this or that or the other is very small compared to … It means a lot if you believe it. If you believe what people say about you, if you believe what they did to you, then that destroys you. But if you go, “That’s not me,” you can overcome almost anything. And he’s got a new book out on that anyway that I think is very good because that’s the, I’d say more than anything, that’s the key to success.
The Databricks Story
Lenny Rachitsky: If you look at all the writing you’ve done, it’s essentially about the struggle and pain and suffering of being a CEO, your first [inaudible 00:09:59] to Hard Thing About Hard Things. There’s a lot of talk these days about just how important struggle is and how valuable it is to go through struggle. Jensen’s big on this. He talks a lot about just you have to go through pain and suffering to be a great leader.
Investing in Databricks & Ali’s Rise
Ben Horowitz: You don’t really have a choice. That’s true.
Lenny Rachitsky: There’s something that I saw you share that I love, which is running towards fear versus running away from fear. Something that you tell all your leaders to work on. Easy to hear, hard to do. We don’t like doing things that are scary, running towards things that are scary. Why is this so important? Why is this something people need to learn to do?
Leverage in Management
Ben Horowitz: Well, so the biggest mistake that you make, the worst thing that you do as a leader, there’s things in your control and there’s things out of your control and hesitation, that’s generally the most destructive. And I go through all the ways that it’s destructive, but it’s extremely bad. And the thing that causes you to hesitate is both decisions are horrible. It’s that business school where you’re going through a case study, “And if you had done that, then the company would have gone this way. But if you had done that, it’s a great success.” That’s not actually what happens to you as CEO.
What happens to as CEO, it’s like, “Okay, if we rearchitect, this product, the architecture is not actually get us to where we need to go. I kind of know that. But if we rearchitect it, we’re going to probably miss all the features, miss the quarter, have trouble raising money, shudder, et cetera. So that’s really bad. And then not rearchitecting is really bad, and so I’m just going to try to and avoid this subject because I don’t even want to deal with either of those.” And that’s the worst thing, because if action is the better choice and that’s good. And then if you don’t make an explicit decision, then the whole company’s going to get nervous because they know that the architecture is whack and you got to fix it.
And probably one of my bigger ones on that was we went public with $2 million in trailing 12 months revenue at 18 months old. That’s obviously a bad idea. I mean, there’s no question that wasn’t a bad idea. But the truth of it was the alternative because of where the private markets were was going bankrupt. And that’s a worse idea.
And if you look at that time, March of 2001 when we went public, you just look at the number of CEOs that hesitated on that and didn’t do it and went bankrupt. It’s a lot. And so that getting good at making a decision that everybody’s going to go, “Wow, that was insane, Ben.” The Wall Street Journal wrote a whole long story about how stupid I was. And then Businessweek wrote a story called the IPO From Hell. That was the name of our idea, the IPO from hell, which was accurate in a sense.
So that’s really bad, but it wasn’t as bad, and this is why it’s so scary you make that decision that’s going to happen. I knew those stories would get written, there was no question. And yeah, that’s the kind of muscle. So if you think about the psychological muscle you have to build to be a great leader is to be able to look in the abyss and go, “Okay, that way slightly better. We’re going to go that way. And it’s very hard to do.” I would say it’s a thing people struggle with. And it began something, should I fire the head of sales? So I don’t want to have that conversation. And then I’ll have to replace them. And then there’s going to be a bad PR story. And you can kind of quickly calculate all the bad stuff that’s going to happen if you do it. But if you don’t do it, that’s probably going to be much worse and that’s why you have to run towards the pain in darkness.
When to Replace Founder CEOs
Lenny Rachitsky: What is the advice you share with founders? Because as you said, it’s very hard to do this, just what helps them actually get better at this? Is it just Ben being by their side telling them this is how it is? Is there anything else you can share?
CEO Confidence & a16z Design
Ben Horowitz: No, no. I would say this is one where I can’t really coach you to be good at this. I can point it out so that you recognize that you were slow or whatever. But it’s kind of like I always liken when I talk to them, it’s like football. You can have a really fast great athlete, but if they don’t trust their eyes, if they don’t run to the ball when they see it, if they think, “Oh, maybe that was a fake,” then they’re that step slower and then they’ll never be as good. And CEOs are like that. If you don’t trust what you see and you don’t run at it, then you’re just not going to be good. And it’s hard to get CEOs not to hesitate. But look, the thing that does help is they look at it and I look at it and I confirm, “No, that is as it appears.”
And sometimes they’re afraid of the conversation. So that one I can help with. So A CEO might be afraid, like they want to do something but they don’t know how to say it. They don’t know how to have the conversation with the employee so I can walk them through that. I had an instance where the CEO said, “Hey, I need your help, Ben. My CTO, he’s an asshole.” And I was like, “Okay, great.” I said, “But you’re not going to fire him because I know he’s a good CTO, or are you asking me should you fire him?” He said, “No, no, I don’t want to fire him.” And I was like, “So you’re asking me what to do? You don’t know how have that conversation with him about being an without him quitting. That’s what you’re saying?” And he goes, “Yeah, that’s the problem.”
And so I go, “Well, why is he an asshole?” And he says, “Well, he’s an asshole because the other day he made a very junior young woman in our finance organization cry.” And I was like, “Yeah, I got you.” I said, “Look, this is what I would say to him. I’d say I just sit them down and I would say, ‘Look, you’re a really good director of engineering because you do a great job at managing the team, get the products out, all that. But you’re not really a CTO because to be a CTO, you have to be effective with other parts of the organization. You can’t just be effective only with engineering. And making somebody cry, she’s never going to do anything you want. You lost all effectiveness with all of finance by doing that. And so if you want to get good at that, I’ll help you. I’ll work with you on it, but if you don’t, I’m going to have to hire a CTO at some point because obviously I need that.’” And then he was like, “Oh, okay, I can have that conversation. I can’t have the conversation that, ‘Hey, you’re an asshole,’ because I don’t want them to quit, but I can have the conversation that’s more specific.” And a lot of getting people not to hesitate is just getting them over that.
And so often, and I would say early in a CEO’s career, a lot of it is just not knowing how to have the conversation.
Most Counterintuitive Startup Lesson
Lenny Rachitsky: There’s also I imagine an element of I just want to be liked. I don’t want people to hate me. You have this great line that you want to be liked and respected in the long run, not the short run.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, that’s tricky. By the way, I have to deal with this in the firm too, and people want to be entrepreneur friendly. I’m like, “No, it’s not friendly. Respectful. But you’ve got to be able to tell them the truth in a way that you probably don’t tell most of your friends the truth.” Because your friend, look anthropologically, we want people to like us. It’s just so they don’t throw us to the lion or whatever. That’s just kind of a thing. So you say tell people what they want to hear, but in dealing at a company level in a context of you’re on the board of somebody’s company, you’ve got to be able to tell them what they don’t want to hear. That’s the most important thing you’re going to say.
And yes, they’re not going to like it when you say it, there’s no question. But over time it could save the company. And all the most important things I’ve said are things that I’ve said to CEOs that they did not want to hear. And that’s what the leadership is about. If everybody agrees with the decision, then you didn’t add any value because they would’ve done that without you. So the only value you ever add is when you make a decision that most people don’t like and that’s where leadership comes in because you know that’s where it’s got to get to. And that’s the thing that takes practice.
I think when Jensen talks about luck, you’ve got to get to near death to get yourself to do that. That’s true. It’s hard to build that if everything’s going great. And I would say the CEOs who had an easy run of it for their, let’s say, they just launched a product that’s an instant hit, it’s very hard for them to develop that muscle compared to the ones that built a company like Jensen where he gutted it out for multiple decades before they had big success.
Good vs. Bad Product Managers
Lenny Rachitsky: Clearly, it’s very difficult and painful to be a CEO, to be a founder. In spite of that so many people want to start companies. So many people dream of having their own company. Who is not right to start a company? What advice do you share with folks that are thinking about starting a company that may not understand just what they’re about to get into?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, so it’s funny. So there’s a couple of things. John Reed, who was the CEO of Citigroup when I started as CEO, said to me something I never forget. He said, “Ben, the only reason to start a company is because you have an irrational desire to do so, because it’s not worth the money.” And I was like, “Wow, he doesn’t even quantify how much money and this guy’s running Citigroup.” So he is a very numbers, banking guy and he didn’t quantify it. And I remember when we sold LoudCloud for $1.6 billion, I remember thinking, “Wow, that wasn’t worth the money whatsoever.”
So I think if you’re doing it for the money, that’s a very bad reason and it will be extremely difficult to get you an outcome. You really have to have an irrational desire to do something larger than yourself to improve the world in some way that somehow that is your purpose. And if you don’t feel that, then you’ll never get through it. It’s just too many bad things happen along the way.
The PM as Team CEO
Lenny Rachitsky: So then how do you think of founders that are looking around for ideas that brainstorm, that look for market opportunities versus come from, “I have this a mission, I’ve got to do this thing in the world.”
Ben Horowitz: My business partner Mark always talks about that. So if you have a product that forces you to build a company, that is a great case of it, right? Okay, you built something and the world wants it and you need a company to deliver it, you know, already have the right product. And so that’s very helpful.
I think there are cases of people, I think Hewlett-Packard was built that way, that they’re like, “Okay, we’ve got to build technology,” it was that abstract, “We’ve got built in technology for the world.” And then they started with, “Well, what do you need?” They called it the next bench thing. What does the engineer sitting next to me need? The next engineer on the bench? So how they define the first set of products.
So it can work the other way, but I think the thing that is in common is it’s just a very abstract idea that you have to build something that’s going to be important that people are going to like working there, people are going to benefit from the products. You have to have some weird concept other than, “Oh, this is going to be successful and I’m going to make a lot of money.” I think way better off taking Zuck’s offer at Meta and just doing that. That’s a way better deal.
Investing in Adam Neumann
Lenny Rachitsky: Along these lines, something else Shaka suggested I ask you about, apparently there’s a story where the CEO of Databricks asked you for $200,000 in the early days and you said no. And it’s not because you didn’t want to invest and it was more about helping them think bigger. What happened there?
Ben Horowitz: So there were six of them, they were six HD student, well, and Jan Stoicka (phonetic) who was their professor. And Jan was this super genius, but when I met with them, they were like, “We need to raise $200,000.” And I knew at the time that what they had was this thing called Spark and the competitor was something called Hadoop. And Hadoop had very well-funded companies already running towards it and Spark was open source, so the clock was ticking.
And I think they didn’t quite know what they had. And then there’s also a thing always, although I wouldn’t say Jan has this mentality, but professors in general it’s a pretty big win if you start a company and you make $50 million. You’re a hero on campus. That’s a pretty cool thing to have done. And so I’m always a little nervous about a company that comes out of academia thinking too small anyway.
And so I said, “Look, I’m not going to write you a check for 10 million because this company, you need to build a company. You need to really go for it if you’re going to do this, otherwise you guys should stay in school.” And they were all graduating right then, so that was kind of that. And Ali actually was VP of engineering at the time, and it was a while before I made him CEO and that was very good luck on my part because I had no idea that they had a guide that good inside the company who could become CEO when I invested. That was just, God smiled on me and gave me that one.
The AI Bubble
Lenny Rachitsky: So speaking of Ali, I actually asked him what to ask you about, and he immediately shared this story. I don’t know if you remember this. In your first one-on-one with him, after you-
I don’t know if you remember this. In your first one-on-one with him, after you made him CEO, he was struggling with a bunch of low performers because he was coming in to lead the company and he was trying to turn things around, trying to coach them, trying to level them up. And your advice to him was quote, “You don’t make people great. You find people that make you great, that make the company great, that you learned from, not the other way around.” And there’s something that he called managerial leverage. What is that all about? What’s the lesson there?
Ben Horowitz: Oh yeah, yeah. So understand, he had just become CEO. So I was teaching him, he had been VP of Engineering and CEO is different. And I’ll get into why and what I mean by leverage.
So I actually wrote a post about this with a little Wang quote where I think the quote was, “The truth is hard to swallow and hard to say too but I graduated from that bullshit, now I hate school.” And that was always my feeling about this particular idea was, look, if you’re VP of engineering, you can develop people. You can teach them to be better engineers. You can teach them, be better engineering managers. That’s very doable.
But if you’re a CEO, what do you know about being CFO? Like what do you know about being VP, HR? What do you know about any of these jobs except maybe VP of engineering?
And so the idea that you’re going to take somebody who isn’t world-class at marketing and make and you them world class and you don’t know anything about marketing, is a dumb idea. It just doesn’t work.
And then the company can’t afford for you to be spending time on that because they need you to make very high quality, fast decisions. They need you to set the direction for the company and they need you to have a world-class team. And so it’s a very hard lesson if you’ve been VP of engineering because if you’re a good VP of engineering, you do develop your people.
But as a CEO, it’s not like you don’t do any of it, but it is very, very small compared to it. So I like to make things just very stark. So you get what I’m saying? I don’t like to hedge it.
And then managerial leverage means it is very simple. It’s okay. If I have the ideas about what your department should do next. If I am kind of pushing you to kind of move your organization forward, then that’s no leverage. What’s leverage is if you’re telling me what you should do and how you can push the company forward, that’s leverage, then I’m getting more than I’d have if you weren’t there otherwise I could just manage a team.
And that’s the point when you feel like you’re not getting leverage. When you got to go say, “Hey, why aren’t we doing this? Why aren’t we doing that?” That’s when you got to make a change. And by the way, he’s unbelievable at that, as good as anybody I’ve seen as a guy who’s not callous as a CEO. He really cares about the people who work for him. He really wants him to have great careers and all that, but he does not hesitate. If he’s losing leverage, he’ll make a move.
Future of AI & Investment Trends
Lenny Rachitsky: Kind of going back to the origin story of A-Sixteen-Z something you guys were really big on was helping founders stay COs become great COs, not replace them with professional COs.
I want to flip this question on you. When does it actually make sense to replace CO? When are people not going to make great COs?
Ben Horowitz: There’s a very consistent thing that happens, which is when somebody doesn’t make it and it kind of starts with confidence is the way I would put it.
So if you invent a product, you kind of recruit a team so forth, all of a sudden you’re CEO, but you don’t run a big organization, you don’t know how to do that. Most founders are like that. And so, if you don’t know what you’re doing, you’re going to make mistakes and they all make a lot of mistakes. And then when you make those mistakes, they’re very expensive. They could cost you to do a down round or they could cost you to lose a company or they could cost you a customer or you scrub the product. They’re very high impact and not just on you, but everybody who you talked into joining you. And so that kind of motion can really cause you to lose confidence.
And then if you lose confidence, what happens is you hesitate on the next decision. And as we talked about, hesitation is very dangerous because one, it locks up the company, but even worse what happens is if you have senior people working for you, they get very nervous and they feel like they need to jump into that void and make the decision for you. And that’s when it gets political, very political, because people are vying for power inside your little screwed up company.
And so now you’ve got a political dysfunctional organization and that’s generally where, okay, the founder probably can’t run this thing anymore. That’s how it happens.
So most of what we do as a firm is to try to help people with that confidence problem and there’s a whole series of ideas that we have around that, but you kind of have to somehow climb the confidence and the competency curve together. It’s very hard to do and particularly if you’re an engineer and you’re used to getting things right or if you’ve been a straight A student or something like that, it’s very disconcerting. Sometimes it’s better to have CEOs who are like C minus students.
App Moats: Custom Models vs. Data
Lenny Rachitsky: Why is that?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, a little facetious. Well, it’s just good to be used to failing. So I think I wrote this, but the median on the CEO kind of test is like 18. It’s not like 90. And so you got to be comfortable getting a lot of D minuses because the D minus is fine, as long as you don’t get the F, as long as you don’t run out of cash, as long as you don’t lose all thing. Okay, you got through it, keep going. And match, that’s a lot of the thing that we try to do CEOs.
Founder Opportunities in the AI Era
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, it comes back to your core, I don’t know, message through your first book is just how much you’ll fail and how much you’ll struggle and how much paid you’ll go through as CO.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, yeah, and I mean a lot of why I wrote that book was just to nanalyze it. I think what happens is, particularly when I wrote it, and I think it’s come back and been true now, is the way the narrative gets written on all these successes is like, “Ph, they came up with a genius idea and then they built this company and they hired all these smart people and it was all great.” But that’s not at all how it happens and I’ve spent enough time with everybody from Mark Zuckerberg to Sam Altman and so forth, that they all go through that same thing that who has your struggling company go through? You screw a lot of things up and they have massive consequences, but you have to maintain your confidence.
Importance of US AI Leadership
Lenny Rachitsky: Actually, I was at a storytelling event last night and I was chatting with someone that I ran into there and told her I was chatting with you today, and she said how meaningful your first book was to her as a founder. Exactly as you said, normalizing that it’s very hard and painful and this is just the way it is.
Power Concentration & Institutional Evil
Ben Horowitz: And the feeling, look, if you think about organizational design or goals and objectives or OKRs or whatever management technique, you need a basic eighth grade education to do any of that stuff. It is not that complicated. The difficult part is the feeling that you have when you have to do it is very, the hard thing of matter a reorg is you’re redistributing power, so you’re going to have people really fricking mad at you because somebody’s losing power if you do it correctly. And that person may be a really good employee. Dealing with that is the hard thing. Knowing how the organization should work to make communication better, it’s not that complex.
The Paid in Full Foundation
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, I think about I was at Airbnb for a long time and just thinking of Brian, who I don’t know even know if he had a job before Airbnb now.
Ben Horowitz: Oh yeah. I spent a lot of time with Brian and after COVID, it all kind of clicked for him and then he did that he and that good talk on founder mode and so forth. But the reason that was so articulate is he had screwed every one of those things up and he hired LT and all this stuff, and these are very senior people and he wanted to defer to them, but you can’t defer as the CEO because you know what Airbnb should be doing. He may know what finance should do, but you know what Airbnb should do and this kind of thing. And then it gets really wild when you can’t defer decisions as the CEO. You got to understand what people are saying and go, “Now we’re going to do this.”
Connections to Hip-Hop
Lenny Rachitsky: And this again comes back to the point of you have to go through the struggle and pain and failure to learn those lessons.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, no. They’re really hard to learn without doing and often without paying the consequence. Even I, like I make mistakes. I was having conversation with Ali the other day and I was like, he’s like, “How’s it going Ben?” And I was like, “Well, I’m finally dealing with something that I had put off for a very long time.” And he said, “Why’d you put it off?” I said, “Because things were going too good. I didn’t have to deal with it. “And he was like, “Yeah.” He said, “I know that.” I’d say Ali is one of the, if not the kind of best private company CEO out there, and he’s making a mistake and I’m making a mistakes. So, it is just tough.
Final Advice for CEOs
Lenny Rachitsky: You said that one of maybe the main reason founders fail the CEOs is they lose confidence, and you had some ideas that you guys have to help founders work through that. Are there a couple you can share how you help?
A Personal Life Motto
Ben Horowitz: Yeah. So we do a lot of things on that. So the kind of design of the firm is about confidence. So the first thing is, well, what would give you? Well if you can get stuff done. So what if I could give you a network that’s as good as Bob Iger’s network, day one, the day you stepped into the job.
And so we have 600 people at the firm and why is that? Well, most of them are building that network for you, so you can call any CEO or anybody in Washington or any executive or that kind of thing and get them on the phone and they’ll talk to you and you can kind of deal with that thing. And then that just makes you feel like a CEO.
And then we have a lot of people in the firm like myself, who you can talk to on a CEO to CEO basis, as opposed to an investor to CEO, and just kind of feel that. Early in the firm days, we used to do this thing. I think I’m going to bring back in some form this thing called the CEO barbecue. And it was like a lot of people have these events where they bring in speakers and this and that and the other. And I always felt like those were one, they were too many days. And then sometimes what they said wasn’t really applicable and that kind of thing.
So I said, “Why don’t we just have a barbecue?” I would barbecue. We get everybody in my backyard because was 500 people at the peak, which is why at the stuff I couldn’t cook that much, that kind of stuff. And then we’d have Larry Page and Mark Zuckerberg and Kanye West, and so you’re a CEO in there with portfolio. You’re like, “Wow, I must be important. I’m here with all these guys” and we’re just hanging out having a drink, eating barbecue.
And so then when I go back to my company, I feel like I am somebody. And okay, I might not be perfect at all this, but I am really a CEO. I was at the CEO barbecue, for crying out loud and that kind of thing. But the whole idea was always like, “Okay, do you feel like you can do it?” Because that’s half the battle?
And look, having been in and every CEO has been in a position where they feel like, “Well, maybe I shouldn’t be the one running this thing. Maybe it’s just too big for me.” And that’s a bad, you don’t want to go there. And because as we’ve said, founders can get to the next product and that’s something that almost no professional CEO is able to do. There’ve been rare cases, but very rare.
Three Albums, One Business Lesson
Lenny Rachitsky: So clearly you’ve worked with a lot of companies, a lot of founders. Let me kind of zoom out a little bit and ask you this question.
What’s the most counterintuitive lesson you’ve learned about building companies that goes against common startup wisdom?
Ben Horowitz: Well, the common startup wisdom keeps changing. One of the early ones that was wrong, and Brian articulated it, and then now I think a little bit of what people have gone to is also wrong.
So the first idea that was wrong was like, okay, build a team of senior executives as soon as you get product market fit as fast as possible and they can scale the thing. And I think that you got to build that team slowly and deliberately, kind of pace to your ability to integrate and then manage them. Because if you bring in a bunch of senior people and you don’t know really how they match to your company or how that function works or so forth, then you’re going to start deferring. And once you start deferring, it’s going to get out of control very fast because they’re going to build empires, they’re going to get political, they’re going to do all that kind of thing.
So that was bad advice. You kind of have to do it in a measured way. I think that founder mode, I think a lot of people have taken to never hire anybody with experience. And that’s also bad advice in that, look, somebody who knows how to do something can really accelerate your thing. So very early on, one of the founders, great founder Arsalan at Databricks was running sales. And I’m like, “Oli, you’re going to have to hire somebody who knows sales because Arsalan’s, PhD in computer science. I like that, but that’s probably not where you’re going to have to start if you’re going to catch these guys before they take Spark and use it against you.”
And I sat down with Arsalan and I explained why. I said, “Look, a lot of what sales, there’s a lot of knowledge in how to build a worldwide sales organization; maybe knowledge of customers, territories, territory splitting, rep profiles. There’s just a litany of stuff that you really can only learn by doing trial and error and you don’t know anything. And so you’re phenomenal. Let’s get you. And still, he’s a very senior executive in the company now, but we need somebody who knows that. And the idea that there are companies that go, ” Okay, we’re just not going to hire that in founder mode.” That’s also a mistake. So there’s a lot of, it’s more subtle than you think, and it’s more complex than you think. And so you kind of have to get all the way to the truth. And these little snippets of advice that he sees good, because they watch some fucking podcasts, are all fucking stupid.
There’s a lot of depth to these things. You have to know the answer to the next question, the next question and the next question, and it does drive me crazy. One of the funnier things that happened along these lines, just to show you how little. You know as an investor, about what it means to be CEO.
We were at a board dinner. One of the CEOs says to me, he goes, or one of our CEO says, “Hey Ben, that thing you told me a while ago about don’t be CEO at home.” He said, “I was doing that and I stopped and it really helped me.”
And then the other kind of VC said, ” Yeah. You got to unplug some time.” And I said, I was like, “What the fuck are you talking about? He’s CEO. He’s not unplugging. He’s getting shit all the fucking time. He’s got to deal with that. That was not what I meant. I was like, you can’t go home and boss your family around. That’s what I meant.”
You hear something from somebody who, but if you haven’t done it, you don’t even know what that means. And so then you then trying to transfer the advice to the next guy, that’s not going to work. So anyway, but he was very innocent. I just don’t want to kind of speak bad of him, but that’s how it sounds, right? But that’s not what it is.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s an amazing story. So the advice partly here, is just don’t believe everything you see on Twitter and little sound bites of advice.
Ben Horowitz: I think actual CEOs know it. And that’s kind of how people in my profession going to get a bad wrap. Because giving advice, that’s not something that you know but something that you heard, is very dangerous, I think.
Lenny Rachitsky: So speaking of advice that you’ve shared that might be out of date now, you are famous for writing one of the most popular pieces of literature for product managers. There’s a lot of PMs that listen to this podcast called Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager. And if you actually go to that post today at the top you say, “This document was written 15 years ago and it’s probably not relevant today for PMs. I present this nearly as an example of a useful training document.”
Still people link to it. I actually just link to it as just like this is something every PM needs to read. What is it that you think people should maybe not take away from it, and what do you think people still should take away from that piece?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, so the reason I wrote it when I wrote it was that I had a lot of product managers. And one thing about product management is it’s a job that’s completely different at every company and there is no training for it. So everybody kind of figures it out as they go. And depending on what’s being emphasized, they’ll get wrapped around the axle on if it’s an enterprise company, well pitching to customers or I need to be really good with the press, or I need to be really good at writing the product requirements document or that kind of thing.
And those are all these tasks, but none of those were the job and what I was trying to get out in Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager was, the job is fundamentally a leadership job and it’s a tricky leadership job because nobody is actually reporting to you.
So it’s like this influence, how do I get people to do what I want even though I’m not paying them. I can’t fire them. I can’t promote them, and so forth, which is kind of the essence of real leadership because if you start to rely on promotion and firing and so forth for authority, then you’re never going to be good at being CEO or anything.
So I wanted them to get into the mindset of, “Okay, your actual job is to get a product into market that customers love that’s better than anything that anybody else in the world puts in market. That’s your job.” And so to accomplish that job, you need engineering to understand you with clarity. You need to understand engineering with clarity. You need to have a really good view of the market and the competitors and the technology and so forth and you need to put that all together and deliver the thing.
And all the other things are tasks that you may or may not need to do. I don’t know if you need to do them, but the thing is, you have to be the leader. You’ve got to get the thing done. And so what I think it’s still good on is that the mindset, be the leader, I think the details of any kind of thing that was kind of task specific was really for my group a Netscape in 1996, whenever the hell I wrote it.
So as a kind of document I wrote out of frustration. But I am glad that the people still like it, and I think leadership in general is undervalued, underestimated. It’s the most powerful thing. And most of the great companies, Jensen is a great example. What a phenomenal leader he is not just of Nvidia, but of the whole industry. And he doesn’t have authority over the industry, but he drives it forth and that’s why the Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager is so important because that thing, if you learn how to do it, that’s the thing.
Lenny Rachitsky: I didn’t realize you wrote that initially as just an internal document and then you made a-
Ben Horowitz: It was kind of before blogging took off, so it is just an internal thing and I published it later. I was just getting so mad. And by the way, my product management team at the time was very good, very talented people. They just were not getting that concept. So like David Wyden said, Coastal Ventures, Raghu Raghuram, who wanted on to be CEO of VMware, the team was like that team, but they were driving me crazy. And so I was like, “I can’t yell at people anymore. I have to explain to myself.” And so it’s a good thing if you find yourself yelling at people, you probably haven’t explained what you want, was the other big takeaway from that.
Lenny Rachitsky: Did you ever think that piece would be so long-lasting? And so, I don’t know, popular?
Ben Horowitz: I didn’t even know. I thought it was kind of like aggressive when I wrote it. You could tell I was mad. I called a Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager. It’s like bad dog, bad, bad, bad product manager. That was kind of the emotion I had. So, it is kind shocking some of the things that you write.
I would say that that’s and kind of creative, and you probably know this. The idea is that you have the things that you write in five minutes end up being much better than things you write in five weeks. And I find in talking to musicians or writers or everybody has that same experience. The thing that you’ve already synthesized so much that you just have to write it out, that’s the best stuff.
Lenny Rachitsky: There’s something that you mentioned there in your answer about the PM being the leader. There’s always this kind of sense that the PM is not the mini CEO. How dare you call yourself that. I actually think that’s exactly what the PM is. They’re basically the closest to the CO. Their kind job is to think like the CEO within the team.
Ben Horowitz: People get mad because everybody, this is the whole challenge of management in general. People get jealous over stewardship. But from the perspective of the PM, it doesn’t matter if you write a good spec or you have a good interview or you do this or do that. What matters is that the product wrench. And you have to get all the way to there and work backwards from that and you can’t do that without leadership because it is about, okay, we want to build that. And you’re not necessarily the person who comes up with every idea or this or that, or that. You’re just the keeper of the vision.
And that’s true for CEOs too. You don’t want every idea in a company coming from the CEO. I think it’s a misunderstanding of what a CEO is, is why people don’t like that. They don’t know what a CEO is. But a CEO isn’t the one who has every idea it gives, every order does every. That’s not the way it works.
The way it works is there’s somebody who’s got to consolidate, get all the good ideas, prioritize them, decide which good ideas we’re going to do, and then get everybody on the same page, so that they have very high fidelity understanding of what that is. And so that it is a CEO, kind of function. Now, it doesn’t mean I’m better than you, it just means that…
… kind of function. Now, it doesn’t mean like I’m better than you. It just means that that’s what I’m doing.
Lenny Rachitsky:
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Let’s talk about AI. I’m very proud of us. It’s been almost an hour. We haven’t even mentioned AI. I think that’s a record. Okay, so I asked Adam Neumann, WeWork founder, now Flow founder, someone you work closely with now what to ask you about. And he said he has some really interesting insights about how AI is impacting hiring.
Ben Horowitz: Adam is probably the single most controversial investment that we ever made. We got called everything from stupid to sexist to racist to this and that for literally just funding that. And I think it’s going to end up being one of the best investments we ever made. He’s doing a phenomenal job there. There’s an important principle in that which we do as a firm, which I think is not widely done, but I would love it if people copied it, which is, and it’s something I learned somewhat from Shaka, which is you don’t judge a person by the worst thing that ever happened to them. We’ve all had bad things happen to us. We’ve all made bad decisions. Most of them, they don’t make a miniseries about.
And so to judge them on that, you want to judge people on what they do well, not what they screwed up, because that’s where you see the talent. If you look at what Adam did well, it’s truly spectacular. Everybody knows WeWork. Name a more important commercial real estate brand than WeWork. You can’t. And so what an accomplishment. And there were so many things that went into that and so many things he did right.
And then if you kind of look at really unravel the things that went wrong, most of it was like a combination of inexperience and nobody around him that would tell him the truth. And, yeah, maybe he wasn’t good at listening to the truth either at the time, but to throw away a guy on that, which is by the way, the world was so mad at us for not throwing him away, for believing in him, is just that it’s a big mistake. And I credit Mark because Mark is the one who called him up originally, and just said, “Hey, Adam, what are you doing?” Because we watched what you did at WeWork and we thought it was pretty impressive.
And so I think that that’s probably the biggest secret there. Judge Al Davis once said, “Coach players on what they can do.” And I think that’s very true. Judge people on what they can do, coach people on what they can do, help them take their strengths and use them as opposed to over focus on their weaknesses and just hand wringing about the one fucking thing they don’t know how to do. Because look, everybody’s uneven.
Lenny Rachitsky: What you’re describing, essentially, this is the job of an investor, is to find an underappreciated asset and invest or before something people don’t see.
Ben Horowitz: Venture capital is really about investing in people. You have ideas as an investor, but what you really are ultimately betting on is the entrepreneur and the entrepreneur’s idea because the initial idea isn’t where they end up usually. It changes a lot with everybody we invest in. So you kind of have to make the judgment on the person. And how you do that is really, really important. And one of the things we emphasize inside the firm is, look, we’re investing in strength, not lack of weakness. I want to know how good, are they world-class? Do they have a world-class strength? And can that beat anybody? And look, everybody’s flawed. And so let’s help them deal with the flaws and surround them with people who can handle that and put the right person on the board who can talk to them.
You know Mark’s on the board, I go to all his board meetings because I’m the one who’s good at killing a guy who’s that confident when he’s like, “Okay, that’s not your best idea.” That’s good role for me. But that’s how you deal with that. You don’t throw them away and go, “Oh, okay, we don’t want to be called names. So we’re not going to invest in Adam Neumann after we built WeWork. That’s crazy.
Lenny Rachitsky: That’s also why you guys invested in Cluely, I imagine similar.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, yeah, no, that’s right. I mean, look, if you look at what those guys did, that was some high level marketing genius too, and that’s really something. Plus the product is awesome.
Lenny Rachitsky: I’m going to bring us back to AI. Something that a lot of people are talking about right now while we’re recording this is this potential huge bubble we’re in with AI. Sam Altman said, “We’re in a big bubble,” which is, that’s saying a lot. I’m curious just how you that it-
Ben Horowitz: What is it saying? First of all, I should qualify this by saying I am an investor and Sam’s a CEO. So CEOs have to have much more purpose when they talk. Investors just have to be entertained. So you got to give Sam credit for what is it in his interest to say it? Well, if it’s a bubble, then the one thing you should invest in is him and not all these guys chasing after him.
I would say that’s very smart. And then the other thing that’s smart about it is there’s nothing that you can say to the press that will make them love you more than saying, “All investors and entrepreneurs chasing this are idiots.” They love them. The press are generally haters, and so it’s just red meat for the haters, which was also super clever. So I think whether even he believes that or not, that was a super smart thing to say. So I’ll just put it there. Whereas what I’m going to say won’t be as smart, but it will…
I don’t really have an ax to grind here. I mean, I could have an ax to grind and say, “Okay, let’s get all the other investors out.” I’ll say, “It’s a massive bubble.” But what I would say about that is, so the first thing, the one thing about bubbles is anytime everybody thinks it’s a bubble, it’s not a bubble because in order for it to bubble, you need capitulation. In that you need everybody to believe it’s not a bubble, because then the prices really go out of control. But as long as there’s people who think it’s a bubble, then it’s hard for that to happen. And it’s funny, I had this debate in The Economist, I think with Steve Blank in like 2011 or ‘12 when everybody thought it was a tech bubble, if you can imagine that, which it absolutely was not. But because there were 1,400 articles saying that we were in a tech bubble, and I mean where prices were then compared to where they are now.
But I knew because everybody was saying it was a bubble, it wasn’t a bubble. I knew that. The prices were higher, but the reason the prices were higher was we’re getting to a global market. AI prices are higher than prior prices, but if you look at the revenue growth and numbers, we had not seen anything like it. Sam’s product worked so amazingly, we’d never seen that before. Not even Google, not anybody. And so that’s real.
And we have companies that went from zero to 800 million in a year and that kind of thing. I would say there’s a basis for the prices going up, first of all. I think the thing that’s right about what Sam is saying is the landscape is early, really early. The technology is very immature. As amazingly as it works, there’s a long way to go to improve it. So it’s very possible when you have that much technological change, that the positions that these companies have achieved with their high revenue isn’t sustainable, and that there’ll be a competitive change that either lowers prices or a new number one emerges or that kind of thing.
Yeah, that’s possible. But I wouldn’t characterize that as being a financial bubble in that if you go back to the great dot-com bubble that everybody is always waiting for it to happen again, which I was CEO during. The thing that happened there was very different, which is it was the internet and every smart investor knew that the internet was a big deal. How could you not fucking know that the internet was, of course it’s a big deal. But if you go back to 1996, at Netscape, we had 90% browser share and we had 50 million users. So there were 55 million people on the internet in total, and half of those were on dial-up.
And then to build a product like Evite, the greeting card company, had 300 engineers. That’s how hard it was to build this stuff. And so the math didn’t work, and the math didn’t work on any of those ideas, but the investors kept pouring money in. And then eventually everybody went bankrupt because there was no revenue coming in. And when they figured that out, then nobody would invest in anything. And of course then everybody realized, well, the internet was actually real and Paul Krugman didn’t know what he’s talking about, and like it was going to be a big thing. And then Facebook and Google and all these things emerged.
But the thing that made it a bubble was the unit economics didn’t work, the businesses didn’t work. These businesses are all working, and they’re being priced appropriately for how they’re growing. So that’s not in effect. The thing that you could say is, “They’re not going to keep growing like that,” and so forth. And I’m not sure about that. The products, like I said, are working so much better than any technology product that we’ve ever built has worked. It’s just mind-blowing how good this stuff is. And so, I don’t know, if I had to bet, I would bet not a bubble. I think there’ll be some dislocation. I think always in venture capital, if you’ve got a run like this, then the great company and the crap company both get funded. But that’s just venture capital. That’s not a bubble.
Lenny Rachitsky: Four founders starting companies these days. When you look into the future of the AI industry, say in five, 10 years, how do you think things will play out slash where do you think the biggest opportunities remain? Where are you guys looking to invest most?
Ben Horowitz: In infrastructure. I think that there is obviously a real estate power cooling play. I think that’s a little outside of hardcore technology investing that we do. But there’s another layer which is take a given open source model, who can run it the cheapest with the lowest latency? And that’s going to be extremely valuable, whoever has that. And Google has been historically very good at that and so forth, and Sam is really trying to build that now with Stargate. And so I think that’s going to be a very important layer of value. I think that on the foundation model side, you have to be very selective as an investor. So in order to compete in foundational model world, our basic rule of thumb is you have to be able to, without much product progress, raise at least $ 2 billion because that’s basically what it’s going to cost you to train something that gets you competitive enough to make money.
And there are just very few founders like that. So Ilya is one of those. Mary’s one of those, Fei-Fei is one of those, but that’s the kind of class of person you need. And there’s whatever. There’s certainly less than 10 of those in the world. And so that’s kind of an important area, but a small area. And then I think the application layer is going to be very, very interesting. And I think that if you look at Sam, he’s making most of his money off ChatGPT, almost all his money off ChatGPT now. And Chat GPT, like it or not, it’s got a real moat. It’s very hard to knock it off. It’s perched.
Everybody’s taking a shot at it, people, great distribution like Google and Elon and Zuckerberg and everybody. And that thing just keeps going like it is. So I think the applications are both more complex and kind of stickier than people thought they were originally. The thing that people got very wrong is this whole thin wrapper around GPT, that’s really wrong. In fact, here’s how wrong it is. Back in the ’80s, that same phrase was used, but it was thin wrapper around an RDBMS-
Lenny Rachitsky: Database.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it meant companies like Salesforce were basically just a thin wrapper. And I think that that’s kind of the mistake people made. So we’re at this company Cursor, and if you look under the covers in Cursor, they’ve built 14 different models to really understand how a developer works, a high-end, a real developer. Those models have tons and tons of interactions with how people talk to their friend Cursor about how they should design their programming so forth. And that’s real, that’s not just a thin layer on a foundation model. And I think there are many, many applications like that. And so I think there’s going to be a lot of opportunity at the application layer. There’s going to be some opportunity at the foundation model, and of course you can invest in Sam, you can invest in Anthropic and so forth as well.
But there will probably be a very small number of companies at that set, and then a almost unlimited number of companies at the application layer. And then as the technology advances, we’ll of course see more things we can body to AI. I mean already autonomous cars are working really well now after a long, long, long, long time. Since I think Sebastian won the challenge in 2006 when he drove the self-driving car across the country. And here we are 20 years later and now they’re deployed. So that was a long time. Robots I think is a harder problem than self-driving cars. So we’ll see how that goes. But, yeah, there’s certainly a lot in that world as well.
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow, okay. There’s a lot to this answer. No, that was exactly what I was looking for. The Cursor example, it’s something that comes up a lot on this podcast, in the application layer specifically. The thought that the way to win in this space and to build a moat is, as you said, “Build your own model slash have proprietary data that you build through people using your product.” Thoughts on that?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, I mean, I think that ends up just being what’s required. So it turns out that the universe is long-tailed, is fat-tailed, and humans are very fat-tailed in terms of human behavior, human conversation and so forth. So to get to the real meaning of it and to get to the kind of essence of the problem, in any domain turns out to be, I think, more complex than we thought. And so the early things and people were running around saying, “Okay, there’s going to be one big brain to rule them all on these kinds of things.” That’s kind of not played out yet.
And in fact, if you look underneath the covers, you have LLMs, which have generalized pretty in fascinating ways, but they’ve kind of also asymptoted in that we have run out of data for the most part. And so if you look at the GPT-5 LLM compared to the GPT-4.1 and how much more it costs to train and so forth, it’s definitely not going linear anymore.
On the other hand, the reinforcement learning side has been linear, but it doesn’t generalize. So if you build a great programming model, it may be an idiot at math. And so that I think is just very different than what people would’ve said three years ago. And I think that there’s not something that’s both scaling and generalizing yet, and maybe we’ll get there, but that certainly opens the door to something that’s more user-friendly, that’s more effective in any number of domains than just the basic foundation model infrastructure. Now those models are incredibly important, and I think OpenAI is probably 80% of the revenue in AI are something like that now. It’s massive, and so that foundation model is really, really important. And then the basic consumer app is really, really important.
That just answers whatever the hell you want to know. Those things are very, very real. But I do think particularly, and then if you get into enterprise stuff and then it’s no longer internet data, it’s their data that becomes very different. Databricks is having a lot of success there because, okay, well, once you’re inside a company, guess what? You care about access control. That’s hard with an AI world. It gets trained on some stuff. How does it know who has access to that information and who doesn’t, and so forth. You have semantic issues. So if you look at an enterprise, find 10 enterprises, they all have a different definition of what a customer means. You would think customer is a basic thing. Well, is it a department at AT&T? Is it AT&T? Is it a person at AT&T? What the hell is the customer? And it turns out to be very, very meaningful, particularly if you’re trying to figure out important things like churn and this and that and third.
So that kind of stuff matters. So I would just say the problem space is a lot bigger than you can just attack with a basic foundation model currently. Maybe that will change, and if that changes, then certain prices will have, in retrospect, look way inflated and others will look too low. But that is TBD.
Lenny Rachitsky: So a big takeaway from this is that there’s still tons of opportunity for founders to start companies building AI products.
Ben Horowitz: I think so. Everything that we couldn’t solve with software we can solve now, almost. So it’s a really big world. And it’s funny because we’re investors in Waymo, and one of the things when you get into what took so long to make Waymo so safe like they are now, it wasn’t the things that everybody reported on the podcast. There wasn’t sleet and heavy rain, it was people. It was like the human who was driving 75 in the 25 zone. It was very hard for the AI to anticipate because it was rare but important. And the number of rare, important crazy shit that humans do is very high. And I think that that goes for all of AI. So to make things work really well, you have to understand this very kind of fat tail of human behavior.
Lenny Rachitsky: Along this AI thread, something that is really important to you, clearly something you talk a lot about is the US being successful in AI, in leading the world in AI. Why is this so important? Why is something you spend a lot of time on?
Ben Horowitz: It starts with, I think, my view of the US and its role in the world. My personal view is it’s very, very, very important. Not for society to be completely fair because it’s not going to be completely fair or completely equal because we’ve never had one that’s been completely equal. But it’s important that everybody have a chance at life, and particularly both culturally, but also just you can’t advance the world if you can’t tap into all of your resources. And so if you kind of take away motivation and these kinds of things, you get into trouble. And if you look at the kind of every country today, and this is by the way, so you want the right amount of decentralized power. You don’t want it to be completely concentrated, concentrated power makes it very, very difficult for everybody to have a chance. This is the big lesson of communism over the last hundred years is it turned out right. And we still have politicians selling it this way today, it’s like, “Oh, it’s power to the people.”
No, no, no. It’s power to you because you’re removing all power from the private sector and installing it into the government, and then you’re putting yourself in charge of the government. And so I become extremely powerful. And this is why it didn’t matter if it was Mao or Pol Pot or Ceausescu or Stalin, everybody died because when you give anybody that much power, nobody has a chance. There is no incentive, there’s no carrot, there’s only stick. And so you use that stick, and that’s just the nature. It’s a system’s problem. It’s not a person problem. It’s not Stalin was evil, Ceausescu is evil. It was that system is evil. And-
Ben Horowitz: It was evil. It was like that system is evil. And that’s the saying with fascism. Be it Hitler or Mussolini, it doesn’t matter. That level of power is evil.
And the US does the best job. Systematically, it’s the best system. It’s got all kinds of issues, it’s got problems. People always try to defeat it. But one of the things that if you look at the Declaration of Independence or the Constitution, the language is very important. It’s, “We hold these truths to be self-evident.”
What does that mean? It means it’s not my rule, it’s not the president’s rule, it’s God’s rule. And so those rules are above the President, and then you work in that context and that distributes the power, because you’re under the law, not under the person. We see that now even with Europe, where the leaders are going, “Well, I have a rule. It’s you can’t say certain things or I’ll throw you in jail.” And the kind of shield they hide behind as well, we have to keep the kids safe. But if you say something that I don’t agree with and the kids hear it, they’re not safe. So the kind of transited property of bullshit is going to override.
And so it’s really important that we have at least one society. And as flawed as we are, as flawed as the US is, it’s still the best. And you can see it by the number of new company creations, the number of new ideas that come out of here and so forth. It’s really, really important that the US stays important and powerful in the world.
We know from the last century, if you look at the last century, who were the countries that had economic power, military power, cultural power? They were the ones that industrialized, and the ones that industrialized first and best. And the ones that did became Communists, like Russia, China. They were slow on industrialization and they fell into this very fucking dangerous system.
Looking forward, that’s going to happen again, but it’s going to be AI. And so it is fundamentally important, not just to America, but to humanity, that America succeed at that. We don’t have to be the one winner or this or that, but we do have to be in that tier.
And as I go around the world and travel, I can’t tell you, everybody … and then everybody was getting, by the way, very, very worried about us earlier. And they say, “Look, we need you to succeed. Don’t destroy the dollar. Don’t fall behind in AI. Don’t over-regulate it too early. Don’t do these things, please, because we need you to win, because we’re all counting on that.”
And I think it’s the most important work that we do. It’s why we’re so involved in policy and so forth. I think this is also going to be very, very true with crypto, which ends up being an incredibly important networking technology that complements AI. That work is, I would say, beyond for the money. Although we will end up making a lot of money with the right policies, so I don’t want to seem totally philanthropic on this, but it’s more important than that. It’s certainly more important than us succeeding or anything like that, that the country succeed.
Lenny Rachitsky: Speaking of philanthropic and other passions of yours, something that I don’t think most people know about you, and I think will give them another insight into how interesting you are, you run an organization called Paid in Full, which is incredibly cool. Talk about what that’s about, why this is so important to you.
Ben Horowitz: Our ethos as a firm is kind of what I’d say is something from nothing. This is the greatness of entrepreneurship. You start with nothing and then you make something really important. That is also how Hip-hop started, where you have a bunch of kids who didn’t even have instruments, and they created something out of nothing. And the people in that world always talk about that.
And one of the really unfortunate things that happens is, the people who invent the art form, and certainly in the case of Hip-hop, don’t get anywhere near the kind of proportional benefit of their invention. And a lot of the guys, people have forgotten about, or are struggling to make ends meet, and so forth.
So what we created was this thing called the Paid in Full Foundation, named after the Rakim, Eric B. song, which I did call Rakim and ask him for permission to use the name, so we didn’t just take it. What we do is, we give essentially pensions to the old rappers, that enable them to kind of continue their work.
And then we have a big event go to paidinfullfoundation.org for tickets, which is amazing, where they get the award and they’re celebrated by all their peers and so forth. And it’s really phenomenal. Some of the awardees have been Rakim, Scarface from the Geto Boys, Roxanne Shante, Grandmaster Caz, Kool Moe Dee.
This year we’re honoring George Clinton for being sampled, Kool G Rap and Grand Puba, and also Jalil from Whodini. I can’t even describe how high impact it is on these guys. I think Rakim was touring close to 200 nights a year, and he got his award, and came out with his first album in 15 years and is doing amazingly well. All of a sudden everybody’s going, “Oh yeah, that’s the greatest rapper of all time.” They’re finally going back and remembering all the things he did. Roxanne Shante, nobody had mentioned her in years and years and years. I think six months after we gave her the award, the Grammys gave her a lifetime achievement award, which is amazing. It’s super high impact. It’s a great thing. As a Hip-hop fan, I say dream come true. It’s my only guilt.
Lenny Rachitsky: What’s the origin story of you and Hip-hop? I imagine many people look at you and wouldn’t imagine these records behind you, Nas gifted you. You are so deep into the community, just how did this all begin?
Ben Horowitz: Well, I actually wrote a blog post on it called The Legend of the Blind MC, which I think would be, if you’re really interested, it’s worth reading. But it is kind of a story of me becoming a rapper, and how that occurred, and how it went, and so forth.
I always say the very short story is, I was in New York at the birth of Hip-hop and when it really became big, ‘84 through ‘88. It’s just the most exciting thing to see a new art form pop out and the creativity and everything.
Once music becomes mainstream, I would say it’s very shaped by business. And in the early days, everybody’s just coming out with whatever idea they have and so forth. The early days of rock and roll were like that. The early days of jazz were like that.
Lenny Rachitsky: I see now even more why you guys brought on Erik Torenberg. Beyond his many talents, he’s also really big into rap himself.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, that’s a good reminder. I need to make sure he gets to Paid in Full.
Lenny Rachitsky: Ben, this was incredible. Is there anything else that you want to leave listeners with or share before we get to our very exciting, quick lightning round?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah, I would just say, if you’re a CEO listening to this, then know that how you feel about yourself is going to end up meaning as much as anything, and take your time on that. Self-evaluation is … one of my favorite quotes is that when my old manager saw me, as select players know, “From this day on, no credit will be given for predicting rain, only credit for building an ark.”
And I think that’s more true for CEOs than anybody. You have to build the ark. It doesn’t matter if you predict you’re going to fail, you’ve still failed. It gets you nothing. So what you have to do is figure your way out of it and spend all your time on that.
Lenny Rachitsky: Well, with that, we’ve reached our very exciting lightning round. I’ve got five questions for you. Are you ready?
Ben Horowitz: Yes, sir.
Lenny Rachitsky: First question, what are two or three books that you find yourself recommending most to other people, not including your own books?
Ben Horowitz: So two that I learned a lot from, one is The Weirdest People in the World, which it’s a kind of big history book, but through an anthropological kind of cultural lens. It’s really fascinating. It explains an awful lot about how society works and how little changes in the rules completely change the culture.
One of the things that he basically endeavors to explain, why did the West get ahead on the rest of the world? It kind of comes down to a weird anomaly with the Catholic Church, where they enforced monogamous marriage. And it turns out that the natural state of humans is polygamy, but the problem with polygamy is, there’s no cooperation among men, which is a problem. And as a result, and then everything is secret, so there’s no sharing of knowledge, because it’s all kept in the family, in what he calls kin-based culture.
It leads to something called kin-based culture. And even recipes won’t be shared if you’re in a kin-based culture, because it’s a secret. So you can’t build science, you can’t build cities, you can’t build big companies. So because the West kind of enforced broad monogamous marriage early, it was able to evolve into all these things.
And he kind of shows why and how. He does these psychological tests today with people from monogamous marriage culture, Western culture, and kin-based culture. And the psychology is completely different. He gives examples like if a person murders another person, is that still murder if that person who did the murder is your brother? And in Western society, yeah, that’s a murder. In kin-based culture, it’s not a murder. It’s just not.
And so that’s really different. And so morality is different, everything comes off of that. So it’s just a fascinating, fascinating book. So that’s one.
Another book that I recommend a lot is Shaka’s book, his first book, Writing My Wrongs. He has a new book that I think is better, which is called How to Be Free. It’s not quite out, or maybe it’s releasing. It’s releasing next month, so I recommend it.
What it does is, it goes through how did he work his way out of prison and solitary confinement to his current psychology, and what are the techniques he used? They’re very powerful, very powerful ideas. CEOs always asks me, “How do you deal with it? How do you deal with it?” They’ll ask in a work-life balance. It’s like, “What are you talking about? No work-life balance for CEOs,” or particularly entrepreneur CEOs, come on.
But what do you do? Do you meditate? Do you do this or that? But he kind of goes through the things that you really ought to do. That’s what I would recommend, if somebody’s wondering, how do you deal with all this pressure?
Lenny Rachitsky: I love this. Just the whole idea of Shaka being this help for CEOs, someone that killed someone, went to prison, led a prison gang. I just love that, how valuable his lessons-
Ben Horowitz: Prison gangs turn out to be really complicated things to manage. Sorry for getting into this, but the problem with running a prison gang is, you’re just dealing with people who all come from broken culture.
So in any organization, like the fundamental thing is trust. And so you’re bringing in a bunch of no trust people. And so again, it’s kind of like a military organization. It’s a gang. If you think about a military operation, if you don’t have trust, people don’t trust the order, then you’re completely dysfunctional.
So how do you build trust from zero is a very interesting problem. And he’s a genius at that, by the way. And I learned a lot from talking to him about it. So from a management standpoint, I would just say it’s an important kind of boundary case of how you build culture. He is very, very smart at that. Like I said, you have to look at people about their greatness, not the worst thing they ever did.
Lenny Rachitsky: I know it’s the lightning round, but can you just share one example of something he did that was like, wow, that’s a really good lesson, someone trying to create a good culture that worked for him?
Ben Horowitz: Yeah. So one of the things that he did that I thought was really smart is … Well, he did a couple of things. One is just a simple thing. He just made everybody eat lunch together in the gang, just to build rapport, relationship, trust, like it’s all one thing. We’re all together on that.
And I think particularly in the remote work world and so forth, people really underestimate how powerful just that idea can be. And then another thing he did is, he made morality … he had very specific things about, you had to be good to your word internally and externally.
So normally a gang, like I said, it’s kind of a kin-based culture thing. But it made it much more powerful when he said, “Look, you can’t do devious shit outside the gang either.” And he had a bunch of examples of that, that I went through in the book.
Like I said, because you’re building it from zero, you really have to take a hard line on things that I think people in companies don’t even take a hard line on. Is it okay to lie internally? Probably not. Is it okay to lie to a customer? Well, in some organizations it is, but in Shaka’s organization, that’s as big a penalty as lying internally. These things, I think, end up being really important.
Lenny Rachitsky: We’re going to link to this book. This is, What You Do is Who You Are. This is your second book that fewer people know about. And this is one of the stories you tell and just what the lessons are for building-
Ben Horowitz: Yeah. It’s kind of the more advanced book. You kind of have to survive to want to care about dealing with the cultural issues. And so the survival book has a bigger audience.
Lenny Rachitsky: Amazing. We’re going to keep going with Lightning Round. Is there a favorite recent movie or TV show you have really enjoyed?
Ben Horowitz: Well on TV, I really like Slow Horses, which is the show about the MI6 cast-off guys. And then I haven’t seen a lot of movies lately, but I watched Sinners. I went to theater for Sinners. Just the cinematography is unbelievable, and the story is really original, and the acting is incredible, and the costumes are amazing. It’s just a great, comprehensive piece of work. The craftsmanship on that thing is just a lot beyond what most people making movies are doing these days, so I really enjoyed that.
Lenny Rachitsky: I hate scary movies, but I watched it and loved it.
Ben Horowitz: It wasn’t that scary.
Lenny Rachitsky: It wasn’t that scary, but still, it was zombies popping out of corners. That’s not my jam usually.
Is there a product you recently discovered that you really love? It could be a gadget, it could be clothes, could be something else.
Ben Horowitz: I bought a coffee machine called the Technivorm Moccamaster, which is freaking incredible. In fact, a friend of mine saw it and was like, “What is that?” And I just bought it for him too, because it’s so awesome. This thing makes coffee that it’s just perfect. There’s no bitterness. It’s completely clean. It’s amazing. The only problem with it is, I can’t drink coffee that it doesn’t make anymore. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or bad thing, but …
Lenny Rachitsky: That might come out someday in the AI future.
Ben Horowitz: Yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky: Two more questions. One, is there a life motto that you often come back to, find really useful in work or in life?
Ben Horowitz: The thing that I would say has had the biggest effect on me is something my father said to me years ago, which is, “Life isn’t fair.” That seems really, really simple, but I think that the thing that defeats people more than any other thing that I’ve seen, just in life, is the expectation of some fairness. It’s just not fair.
There are all kinds of stuff that are going to happen to you, and happen to everybody, that don’t happen to other people, that are completely unfair. But it doesn’t matter, because that’s the way it is. As soon as you get that idea out of your mind, then you can just deal with it, like, oh yeah, of course it’s not fair, but what should I do now, which is the real question, not how do I go back and get people to be fair? Nobody’s going to be fair. It’s not fair.
It’s the nature of it. If you think about it for more than five seconds, you’ll realize that. It’s as an individual, if you want to make the world a better place, whatever, but as an individual, do not expect anything to be fair, it’ll only defeat.
Lenny Rachitsky: Final question. This comes from Shaka, actually. He gave me so many great suggestions. I hate to save this one for last. So the question is, if you had to build a business curriculum from two Hip-hop albums and one Funk album, what would they be and why?
Ben Horowitz: I think probably Follow the Leader by Rakim. And the reason is what we had kind of gotten into earlier, which is leadership. When he came out with that song, which was maybe the greatest Hip-hop song ever written, he’s telling people to follow him, follow the leader. And just to have the idea that he was the leader of the entire art form, not just his band, it is amazing idea. And then the way he expressed it was incredible. And then he’s got other great concepts in there that would give you … It’s hard to listen to that record and not have confidence.
I think from a competitive, purely competitive standpoint, Stillmatic from Nas, that’s the one with Get Ur Self a Gun, that’s the one with You’re da Man. It’s like all of the idea of competition is encapsulated in that album, so that would be the other one.
And then Funk, One Nation Under a Groove, for sure. Because it’s like, how do you initiate people into a concept or an idea, and how do you infuse them? One Nation Under a Groove is all about joining the nation, and it’s so musically interesting and getting people to be part of that. [inaudible 01:36:58] If you asked me tomorrow, I’d probably have three other ones.
Lenny Rachitsky: Incredible. I’m going to go listen to these. Ben, final question, how can listeners be useful to you?
Ben Horowitz: If you get something that makes you better, please take it. If you need more advice on it, let me know. Look, my job is to help everybody build something great, so if you’re an entrepreneur, thank you for that.
Lenny Rachitsky: Also, check out Paid in Full, paidinfullfoundation.org, if you want to learn more about that nonprofit.
Ben Horowitz: Yes, definitely, we would love to have you.
Lenny Rachitsky: Amazing. Ben, thank you so much for being here.
Ben Horowitz: All right, awesome. Thank you, Lenny.
Lenny Rachitsky: Bye, everyone. Thank you so much for listening. If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review, as that really helps other listeners find the podcast. You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com. See you in the next episode.
Glossary
| English | 中文 |
|---|---|
| a16z | 知名风投公司 Andreessen Horowitz 的简称,保留原文 |
| Adam Newman | Adam Newman(人名,保留原文) |
| Al Davis | Al Davis(人名,保留原文) |
| Ali | Ali(人名,保留原文,指 Ali Ghodsi,Databricks CEO) |
| Ali Goetze | Ali Goetze(人名,保留原文) |
| Arsalan | Arsalan(人名,保留原文) |
| AT&T | AT&T(公司名,保留原文) |
| Bob Iger | Bob Iger(人名,迪士尼前 CEO,保留原文) |
| Brian | Brian(指 Brian Chesky,Airbnb CEO,保留原文) |
| Ceaușescu | Ceaușescu(人名,保留原文) |
| Citigroup | 花旗集团 |
| Cluely | Cluely(公司名,保留原文) |
| Coastal Ventures | Coastal Ventures(投资机构名,保留原文) |
| Cursor | Cursor(产品/公司名,保留原文) |
| Databricks | Databricks(公司名,保留原文) |
| David Wyden | David Wyden(人名,保留原文) |
| Elon | Elon(指 Elon Musk,人名,保留原文) |
| Eric B. | Eric B.(人名,说唱歌手/制作人,保留原文) |
| Erik Torenberg | Erik Torenberg(人名,保留原文) |
| Evite | Evite(公司/产品名,保留原文) |
| Fei-Fei | Fei-Fei(指 Fei-Fei Li / 李飞飞,人名,保留原文) |
| Flow | Flow(公司名,保留原文) |
| founder mode | 创始人模式 |
| George Clinton | George Clinton(人名,音乐人,保留原文) |
| Geto Boys | Geto Boys(嘻哈组合名,保留原文) |
| Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager | 好产品经理,坏产品经理 |
| GPT-4.1 | GPT-4.1(模型名,保留原文) |
| GPT-5 | GPT-5(模型名,保留原文) |
| Grand Puba | Grand Puba(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Grandmaster Caz | Grandmaster Caz(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Hadoop | Hadoop(开源分布式计算框架,保留原文) |
| Hitler | Hitler(人名,保留原文) |
| How to Be Free | 《How to Be Free》(书名,保留原文) |
| Ilya | Ilya(指 Ilya Sutskever,人名,保留原文) |
| Jalil | Jalil(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Jan Stoicka | Jan Stoicka(人名,原文注音不准,保留原文) |
| Jensen | 黄仁勋(NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang) |
| JFK Jr. | 小肯尼迪 |
| John Reed | John Reed(人名,Citigroup 前 CEO,保留原文) |
| Kanye West | Kanye West(人名,保留原文) |
| kin-based culture | 亲缘文化 |
| Kool G Rap | Kool G Rap(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Kool Moe Dee | Kool Moe Dee(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Larry Page | Larry Page(人名,保留原文) |
| Lenny Rachitsky | Lenny Rachitsky(人名,保留原文) |
| LoudCloud | LoudCloud(公司名,保留原文) |
| LT | LT(人名,保留原文) |
| Mao | Mao(人名,保留原文) |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Mark Zuckerberg(人名,保留原文) |
| Mary | Mary(人名,保留原文) |
| Mussolini | Mussolini(人名,保留原文) |
| Nas | Nas(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Netscape | Netscape(公司名,保留原文) |
| Paid in Full Foundation | Paid in Full Foundation(基金会名,保留原文) |
| Paul Krugman | Paul Krugman(人名,保留原文) |
| Pol Pot | Pol Pot(人名,保留原文) |
| product market fit | 产品市场契合度 |
| Raghu Raghuram | Raghu Raghuram(人名,保留原文) |
| Rakim | Rakim(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Roxanne Shante | Roxanne Shante(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Salesforce | Salesforce(公司名,保留原文) |
| Sam Altman | Sam Altman(人名,保留原文) |
| Scarface | Scarface(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Sebastian | Sebastian(人名,指 Sebastian Thrun,保留原文) |
| Shaka Senghor | Shaka Senghor(人名,保留原文) |
| Sinners | 《Sinners》(电影名,保留原文) |
| Slow Horses | 《Slow Horses》(剧集名,保留原文) |
| Spark | Spark(开源大数据处理框架,保留原文) |
| Stalin | Stalin(人名,保留原文) |
| Stargate | Stargate(项目名,保留原文) |
| Steve Blank | Steve Blank(人名,保留原文) |
| Technivorm Moccamaster | Technivorm Moccamaster(咖啡机品牌/型号,保留原文) |
| The Hard Thing About Hard Things | 创业维艰 |
| The Weirdest People in the World | 《世界上最怪异的人》(书名,保留原文) |
| VMware | VMware(公司名,保留原文) |
| Wang | Wang(引用的说唱歌词作者,保留原文) |
| Waymo | Waymo(公司名,保留原文) |
| WeWork | WeWork(公司名,保留原文) |
| What You Do Is Who You Are | 你所做的即你所是 |
| Whodini | Whodini(嘻哈组合名,保留原文) |
| Writing My Wrongs | 《Writing My Wrongs》(书名,保留原文) |
| Zuck | Zuck(指 Mark Zuckerberg,保留原文昵称) |
Reformatted by reformat_english.py
460亿美元的残酷真相:为什么创始人会失败,以及为什么你应该直面恐惧 | Ben Horowitz (a16z)
文字记录
领导者的艰难抉择
Ben Horowitz: 作为领导者,你能做的最糟糕的事情就是在下一个决定上犹豫不决。让你犹豫的原因是,两个选项都很糟糕。我比较大的一个决策大概是我们以 200 万美元的过去 12 个月收入、公司成立仅 18 个月的状态就上市了。这显然不是个好主意。但事实是,另一个选择是破产,而那是更糟的主意。
Lenny Rachitsky: 做 CEO、做创始人,是非常艰难和痛苦的。尽管如此,还是有那么多人想要创业。
Ben Horowitz: 要成为一名出色的领导者,你必须锻炼出一种心理素质——能够凝视深渊,然后做出判断:“那边稍微好一点,我们走那边。“如果所有人都同意某个决定,那你就没有创造任何价值,因为即使没有你,他们也会那样做。所以你唯一能创造价值的时刻,就是做出大多数人不喜欢的那类决定。
好产品经理,坏产品经理
Lenny Rachitsky: 你因撰写了一篇产品经理圈中最受欢迎的文章而闻名。
Ben Horowitz: 我在《好产品经理,坏产品经理》(Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager)里想表达的核心观点是,这个岗位本质上是一个领导力岗位。而且这是一个很微妙的领导力岗位,因为实际上没有人向你汇报。
Lenny Rachitsky: 总是有一种声音说,产品经理不是什么”小 CEO”,你怎么敢这么自称?但我其实认为,产品经理恰恰就是这样的角色。
Ben Horowitz: 你写了一份好的产品规格文档也好,你做了一次好的用户访谈也好,你做了这个做了那个也好——都不重要。真正重要的是产品能不能用。
嘉宾介绍
Lenny Rachitsky: 今天的嘉宾是 Ben Horowitz。Ben 是 a16z 中的那个”z”——a16z 是全球最大的风险投资公司,管理着超过 460 亿美元的承诺资本。他们投资了 OpenAI、Cursor、Anduril、Databricks、Figma,基本上每一家划时代的科技公司都有他们的身影。他也是两本《纽约时报》畅销书的作者——《创业维艰》(The Hard Thing About Hard Things)和《你所做的即你所是》(What You Do Is Who You Are)。
Ben 非常迷人。他年轻时组建过一个说唱团体。他的职业生涯从产品经理起步,写下了如今广为人知的《好产品经理,坏产品经理》一文。在我们这次广泛的对话中,我们涵盖了大量话题,Ben 还分享了他从未在其他任何地方分享过的故事和洞见。衷心感谢 Shaka Senghor、Ali Goetze 和 Adam Newman 为本次对话提供了话题建议。
关于成功的一课
Lenny Rachitsky: Ben,非常感谢你能来,欢迎来到播客。
Ben Horowitz: 好的,谢谢你 Lenny。很高兴来到这里。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我更高兴你能来。我想从一个你的一位好朋友建议我问你的问题开始——Shaka Senghor。关于这个人有多有趣、他经历过什么,我们可以单独聊一个小时。
Ben Horowitz: 他那天在 Joe Rogan 的节目上聊了三个小时。他确实非常——
Lenny Rachitsky: 我们不会聊那么久。简单介绍一下,他在监狱里待了 19 年,其中 7 年是单独关押。他领导过一个大型监狱帮派。你在书里写到过他,把他作为你所运营的监狱帮派中优秀文化的典范。非常有趣。但他从你这里学到一样东西,他告诉我要问你——关于成功、关于如何获得成功,以及它并非人们想象的那样。他说你从一位飞行员那里学到了这个教训。那是一个什么样的故事?那个教训是什么?
Ben Horowitz: 我想说,这是一个贯穿一生的教训。但关于飞行员的故事是这样的——我有时会在遇到别人时问一些看似愚蠢的问题。当时我遇到了一位飞行员先生,正好是在 JFK Jr. 驾机坠毁并最终遇难的那段时间。我问他:“到底发生了什么?“因为媒体报道总会给你一个说法,而根据他们写我或其他事情的经验我知道,媒体报道追求的永远是最好的叙事,而不是真相。所以你永远无法从报道中了解真正发生了什么,你看到的只是事情最好的故事版本。
媒体报道的说法都是”哦,他没有接受过仪表飞行训练,却在夜间飞行”之类的。我想知道这个说法对不对。那位飞行员说,“嗯,“他说,“实际上,所有空难都是一系列错误决策的结果。每一个决策单独来看都没有那么糟糕,但当你把它们加在一起,就糟糕了。”
所以第一个错误决策是他必须到达目的地,这是他的首要任务。而在飞行中,这永远不能成为首要任务,因为会有各种条件、各种突发状况。第二个错误是他算错了日落的时间,他以为会在日光下飞行,但实际上并不是。然后当他飞上去之后,飞机在下降时他选择让它上升,这是一个错误的决定,因为飞机实际上是倒过来的。大概就是这样,我记不太清所有的细节了,但这个人连续犯了 17 个错误决策。对我而言,我觉得真正深刻的道理是——一个决策会引出下一个决策。所以如果你能在心理上断开,接受沉没成本,那就能让你脱离很多危险的路径。而一个好的小决定也许很难做出,但你要相信它会引导出下一个好的决定。大量的成功都跟这个有关。就是一件小事,一件很难做的小事,看起来似乎影响力不大,但它会引出下一件难做的小事,最终你会得到一个结果。大概就是这个道理。
Lenny Rachitsky: 所以这个教训就是,成功就是一系列小事的积累,而不是那种”太棒了,我做了一件大事就到这里了”。
Ben Horowitz: 如果有人要写一个关于我的故事,他们会写”然后 Ben 做了一个很聪明的事,然后这个那个,圆满结局”。但实际情况并非如此,我觉得对你或者任何人来说也不是这样。我和 Shaka 花了很多时间探讨这个问题,因为真正击垮你的,始终是你自己的心理。他跟我说过最有洞察力的一件事是——大多数在单独监禁中待了七年的人,就完了。你会疯掉,再也回不来了,这几乎是不可能承受的事。但如果你研究他的经历,他从单独监禁出来后确实实现了巨大的自我提升——当然要说明的是,他不会向任何人推荐这种方式。重点不在于单独监禁本身,而在于他在那段时间里,确实改变了一整套他对自己根深蒂固的信念,正是这些改变让他走了出来。
他从这段经历中得出的结论我觉得非常有趣。他说:“我在监狱里待了 19 年,其中单独监禁 7 年。我出来以后,不能租房,不能投票,不能持枪,什么权利都没有。“然后他说,所有这些外部施加的不公,跟他自己对自己做的事情比起来,根本算不了什么。
我觉得这个道理对 CEO 来说非常适用,对所有人也是一样。所有你感知到的那些发生在你身上的坏事——不管是体制对你不利、有人暗算你、种族歧视、性别歧视,还是这个那个——跟你自己对自己做的事情相比,其实都很微小。但如果你相信了这些东西,那影响确实很大。如果你相信别人对你的评价,相信别人对你做的事,那这些真的会毁掉你。但如果你说”那不是我”,你几乎可以克服任何困难。他正好出了一本关于这个的新书,我觉得非常好,因为我觉得这比什么都重要——这就是成功的关键。
Lenny Rachitsky: 回顾你写过的所有东西,本质上都是关于做 CEO 的挣扎、痛苦和煎熬,从你最早的作品一直到《创业维艰》。现在大家都在谈论经历挣扎有多么重要,经历痛苦有多么有价值。黄仁勋对这一点特别强调,他经常说,你必须经历痛苦和煎熬才能成为一个伟大的领导者。
Ben Horowitz: 你其实没有别的选择。这倒是真的。
奔向恐惧
Lenny Rachitsky: 我看到你分享过一个我非常喜欢的观点——奔向恐惧还是逃避恐惧。这是你告诉所有领导者要练习的事情。听起来简单,做起来难。我们不喜欢做可怕的事,不喜欢奔向可怕的东西。为什么这如此重要?为什么人们需要学会这样做?
Ben Horowitz: 作为领导者,你犯的最大错误、做的最糟糕的事情——有些事在你控制范围内,有些不在,而犹豫不决,通常是最具破坏性的。我会分析犹豫带来的各种破坏方式,但它确实极其有害。导致你犹豫的原因是,两个选择都很糟糕。商学院里那种案例分析——“如果你那样做,公司就会朝这个方向发展;但如果你那样做,就会取得巨大成功”——这根本不是 CEO 面对的现实。
CEO 面对的真实情况是:“好吧,如果我们重构这个产品,当前的架构确实无法带我们到达目标,我大概清楚这一点。但如果重构,我们很可能会错过所有功能、错过季度目标、融资困难、公司可能关门等等。所以这条路很糟糕。然后不重构也很糟糕,于是我就尽量回避这个话题,因为两个选择我都不想面对。“而这恰恰是最糟糕的。因为如果你采取行动,做了那个相对更好的选择,那就是好的。但如果你不做明确的决定,整个公司都会焦虑,因为他们知道架构有问题,你必须去解决。
在这方面我经历过的比较大的决策之一,就是我们在成立仅 18 个月、过去 12 个月收入只有 200 万美元的情况下上市。这显然是个糟糕的主意,毫无疑问。但事实是,考虑到当时私募市场的状况,另一个选择就是破产,而那更糟。
回顾那个时期,2001 年 3 月我们上市的时候,你看看有多少 CEO 在这件事上犹豫了、没做,然后破产了——数量很多。所以你必须擅长做出那种所有人都会说”哇,Ben 你疯了吧”的决定。《华尔街日报》写了一整篇长文说我有多蠢。《商业周刊》甚至写了一篇文章,标题就叫”地狱 IPO”——这就是我们的 IPO,地狱级别的 IPO,从某种意义上说也挺准确的。
所以那确实很糟糕,但没那么糟。这就是为什么奔向恐惧如此令人害怕——你要做出一个注定会引发那些后果的决定。我知道那些报道会被写出来,这一点毫无疑问。是的,这就是你必须锻炼的那种心理肌肉。如果你想成为伟大的领导者,需要建立的心理肌肉就是能够凝视深渊,然后说”好吧,那边稍微好一点,我们走那条路”。这非常难做到。我觉得这是人们最挣扎的事情。它可能从一件小事开始——我要不要解雇销售负责人?我不想进行那次谈话,然后我还得找人替换他,然后可能会有负面新闻。你可以很快算出如果这么做会发生的一系列坏事。但如果不做,情况可能会更糟。这就是为什么你必须奔向黑暗中的痛苦。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你给创始人们什么建议?正如你所说,这非常难做到——什么能帮助他们真正在这方面变得更好?就是你在旁边告诉他们事情就是这样吗?还有其他你能分享的吗?
Ben Horowitz: 不不不。我会说在这个问题上,我没法真正手把手教你变好。我可以指出来,让你意识到自己迟疑了或者怎样。但我经常跟他们打一个比方——就像橄榄球。你可以有一个速度很快、天赋出色的运动员,但如果他不相信自己的眼睛,看到球的时候不去追,心里想”哦,那可能是假动作”,那他就会慢那么一步,永远达不到最好的水平。CEO 也是一样。如果你不相信你看到的,不去迎上去,你就做不好。让 CEO 不犹豫是很难的。但有一点确实有帮助——就是他们看到问题,我也看到问题,我来确认:“没错,事情就是它看起来的那样。”
有时候他们害怕的是那次谈话。这个我可以帮忙。比如一个 CEO 可能很想做某件事,但不知道怎么说,不知道怎么跟员工进行那次谈话,我可以帮他走完这个流程。我遇到过这样一个例子,一个 CEO 对我说:“嘿,Ben,我需要你的帮助。我的 CTO 是个混蛋。“我说:“好的。但你不是要解雇他,因为我知道他是个好 CTO,还是你在问我应不应该解雇他?“他说:“不不,我不想解雇他。“我说:“所以你是来问我该怎么办?你不知道怎么跟他谈他是个混蛋这件事,又不让他辞职——这才是你的问题?“他说:“对,就是这个。”
Ben Horowitz: 于是我问:“那他怎么个混蛋法?“他说:“他混蛋是因为前几天把我们财务部门一个非常年轻的女员工弄哭了。“我心想:“好,我明白了。“我说:“我会这么跟他说。我会把他叫过来坐下,然后说:‘你看,你作为工程总监做得很出色,团队管理得好,产品交付也不错。但你其实不算是 CTO,因为要成为 CTO,你得跟公司其他部门也能有效协作,不能只在工程部门内部有效。而且你把人弄哭了,她以后再也不会配合你做任何事,你那一举动让你在整个财务部门都失去了效力。所以如果你想在这方面提升自己,我会帮你,我愿意跟你一起改进。但如果你不想,那我迟早得再招一个 CTO,因为我显然需要这个人。‘“然后他说:“哦,好的,这个对话我可以谈。我没法跟他说’嘿,你是个混蛋’,因为我不想让他辞职,但我可以跟他进行这种更具体的对话。“很多时候,让人不再犹豫,就是帮他们迈过这道坎。
CEO 早期最常见的障碍
而且我经常说,在 CEO 生涯早期,很多时候纯粹就是不知道该怎么进行那次谈话。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我想象中还有一个因素——就是想要被人喜欢,不想被人讨厌。你有一句很经典的话:你追求的是长期被人喜欢和尊重,而不是短期的。
Ben Horowitz: 对,这个很棘手。顺便说一句,我在公司内部也要处理这个问题。人们想做”创业者之友”,我就说:“不,那不叫友好,要尊重他们。但你必须能够告诉他们真相,而且是以你可能不会对大多数朋友说真话的那种方式。“因为从人类学的角度看,我们就是希望被人喜欢,这样别人才不会把我们扔去喂狮子之类的,这是天性。所以你会说别人想听的话。但在公司层面的交往中,在你作为某人公司董事会成员的情境下,你必须能够说他们不想听的话。那才是你最重要的发言。
领导力的本质
没错,你说出来的时候他们不会喜欢,这是毫无疑问的。但长远来看,那可能拯救公司。我说的所有最重要的话,都是对 CEO 说的他们不想听的话。这就是领导力。如果所有人都同意某个决策,那你就没有增加任何价值,因为他们没有你也会那样做。你唯一能增加价值的时刻,就是做一个大多数人都不喜欢的决策——而领导力就体现在这里,因为你知道事情必须走到那一步。而这正是需要练习的。
我觉得当黄仁勋谈到运气的时候,他说你得走到濒死的地步才会逼自己那样做。这是真的。如果一切都很顺利,很难培养出那种能力。我会说那些一路顺风顺水的 CEO——比如他们的产品一推出就大受欢迎——他们很难发展出那块肌肉。相比之下,那些像黄仁勋一样苦熬了几十年才取得巨大成功的创始人,就完全不同。
什么人不该创业
Lenny Rachitsky: 显然,当 CEO、当创始人非常困难也非常痛苦。尽管如此,还是有那么多人想创业,那么多人梦想拥有自己的公司。什么样的人不适合创业?对于那些正在考虑创业但可能还不清楚自己将要面对什么的人,你会给什么建议?
Ben Horowitz: 对,说来有意思。有几件事。John Reed,在我刚开始当 CEO 的时候他是 Citigroup 的 CEO,他对我说了一句我永远忘不了的话。他说:“Ben,创业的唯一理由是你有一种非理性的冲动想要这么做,因为从钱的角度来说不划算。“我当时想:“哇,他甚至连多少钱都没量化,而这个人可是管着 Citigroup 的。“他是一个非常讲数据、讲数字的银行家,结果他连量都没量化。后来我们把 LoudCloud 以 16 亿美元卖掉的时候,我记得我当时想:“哇,从钱的角度来说完全不划算。”
所以我觉得如果你是为了钱去做这件事,那是一个非常糟糕的理由,而且极难获得好的结果。你真的必须有一种非理性的渴望,想做一件超越自己的事,想以某种方式改善世界,而这就是你的使命。如果你没有这种感觉,你永远熬不过去,因为一路上会发生太多糟糕的事情。
先有使命还是先找机会
Lenny Rachitsky: 那你怎么看那些四处寻找想法、头脑风暴、寻找市场机会的创始人,对比那种”我有一个使命,我必须做这件事”的创始人?
Ben Horowitz: 我的合伙人 Mark 经常谈到这个。如果你的产品迫使你必须建立一家公司,那就是一种很好的情况,对吧?你做出了一个东西,世界需要它,你需要一家公司来交付它——那你已经有了正确的产品。这非常有帮助。
我认为也有一些案例是反过来的,惠普就是这么起家的。他们的想法是”我们要建设技术”——就这么抽象——“我们要为世界建设技术”。然后他们从”你需要什么?“开始。他们管这叫”隔壁工作台”——坐在我旁边的工程师需要什么?下一个工作台上的工程师需要什么?他们就这样定义了第一批产品。
所以反过来也能行得通。但我认为共同点在于,你得有一种非常抽象的想法,觉得你必须建设一些重要的东西,让人们愿意在那里工作,让人们从产品中受益。你必须有某种奇怪的信念,而不是”哦,这会很成功,我能赚很多钱”。如果是那样的话,你还不如接受 Zuck 在 Meta 给你的 offer,直接去做那个——那笔交易划算多了。
Databricks 的故事
Lenny Rachitsky: 顺着这个话题,Shaka 建议我问你的另一件事——据说 Databricks 的 CEO 在早期向你融资 20 万美元,你拒绝了。不是因为不想投资,而是为了帮助他们想得更大。到底是怎么回事?
Ben Horowitz: 他们一共六个人,六个博士生,加上 Jan Stoicka(发音可能不准),他们的导师。Jan 是个超级天才,但我跟他们见面的时候,他们说:“我们需要融资 20 万美元。“我当时就知道他们手里的东西叫 Spark,竞争对手是一个叫 Hadoop 的项目。而 Hadoop 背后已经有资金充裕的公司在全力推进了,Spark 是开源的,所以时钟在滴答作响。
我觉得他们并没有完全意识到自己手里有什么。另外还有一个常见的问题——虽然我不能说 Jan 有这种心态——但对教授们来说,如果你创办一家公司赚了 5000 万美元,这已经是巨大的成功了。你在校园里就是英雄,这是一件很了不起的事。所以我总是有点担心从学术界出来的公司想得太小。
投资 Databricks 与 Ali 成长为 CEO
Ben Horowitz: 所以我说:“听着,我不会给你开一张 20 万美元的支票。我会给你开一张 1000 万美元的支票,因为这家公司——你们需要真正建起一家公司。要做就全力以赴,否则你们还是继续待在学校里吧。“他们当时正好都要毕业了,所以事情就这么定了下来。Ali 当时其实是工程副总裁,过了好一阵子我才让他当上 CEO。这对我来说是非常幸运的事,因为我投资的时候完全不知道公司内部竟然有这样一位出色的领路人可以成为 CEO。只能说上帝对我微笑了,赐给了我这个人。
Lenny Rachitsky: 说到 Ali,我其实问过他应该问你什么问题,他立刻分享了这样一个故事。不知道你还记不记得。在你和他第一次一对一谈话中,你让他——
我不记得你是否还记得这件事。你让他当了 CEO 之后,第一次和他一对一谈话,他当时被一批绩效不佳的员工搞得焦头烂额——因为他刚进来领导公司,试图扭转局面,试图辅导他们,试图帮助他们提升。而你给他的建议是——原话是——“你无法让人变得伟大。你要找到那些能让你变得伟大、让公司变得伟大、让你能从他们身上学到东西的人,而不是反过来。“他还提到一个概念,叫做”管理杠杆”。这到底是怎么回事?这里的教训是什么?
管理杠杆
Ben Horowitz: 哦,对对对。你要理解,他刚当上 CEO。所以我当时在教他——他之前一直是工程副总裁,而 CEO 是不一样的。我接下来会解释为什么,以及我所说的”杠杆”是什么意思。
我其实写过一篇关于这个的文章,里面引用了一段 Wang 的话,大意是:“真相难以吞咽,也难以说出口,但我已从那些废话中毕业,现在我讨厌学校。“这恰恰是我在这个问题上一直以来的感受——你看,如果你是工程副总裁,你可以培养人。你可以教他们成为更好的工程师,教他们成为更好的工程管理者。这是完全做得到的。但如果你是 CEO,你对做 CFO 懂多少?你对做人力副总裁懂多少?除了可能工程副总裁这个岗位之外,其他任何一个职位你懂多少?
所以,你打算去把一个在市场营销上不是世界级水平的人,培养成世界级水平——而你自己对市场营销一窍不通——这是一个愚蠢的想法。它就是行不通。
而且公司承担不起你把时间花在这上面,因为他们需要你做出高质量、快速的决策。他们需要你设定公司的方向,他们需要你拥有一支世界级的团队。所以如果你之前做过工程副总裁,这是一个非常难以接受的教训——因为一个优秀的工程副总裁确实会培养自己的人。但作为 CEO,并不是说你完全不做了,但它的比重会变得非常非常小。我喜欢把事情说得非常直白,这样你才能明白我的意思。我不喜欢含糊其辞。
然后所谓的管理杠杆,意思很简单——如果我脑子里有的是你的部门下一步该做什么,如果是我一直在推动你前进,那这就没有杠杆。什么是杠杆?杠杆是你来告诉我你应该做什么、你能怎样推动公司前进——这才是杠杆。这意味着我得到的产出超过了我没有你时的产出,否则我直接管一个团队就好了。
而当你感觉自己没有得到杠杆的时候——当你不得不过来说”嘿,我们为什么没做这个?我们为什么没做那个?“——那就是你需要做出人事调整的时候。顺便说一句,Ali 在这方面不可思议地出色,是我见过的最厉害的人之一。作为 CEO,他并不是冷酷无情——他真心关心手下的人,真心希望他们拥有伟大的职业生涯,诸如此类——但他绝不含糊。如果他发现自己正在失去杠杆,他会立刻行动。
何时替换创始人 CEO
Lenny Rachitsky: 回到 a16z 的起源故事,你们当时非常强调帮助创始人继续担任 CEO、成长为优秀的 CEO,而不是用职业 CEO 来替换他们。我想把这个问题反过来问你:什么时候替换 CEO 才是合理的?什么样的创始人不可能成为优秀的 CEO?
Ben Horowitz: 有一个非常一致的规律,当一个人没能撑下来的时候,我觉得归根到底是从信心开始出问题。
如果你发明了一个产品,招募了一个团队等等,突然之间你就成了 CEO,但你从来没有管理过大型组织,你不知道该怎么做。大多数创始人都是这样的。所以,如果你不知道自己在做什么,你就会犯错,而且他们都会犯很多错。而当你犯了这些错误,代价非常高昂——可能导致你做一轮降价融资,可能导致你失去公司,可能导致你丢失客户,或者搞砸产品。这些错误的影响非常巨大,不仅仅波及你自己,还波及所有你说服了跟你一起干的人。这种循环会严重动摇你的信心。
而一旦你丧失了信心,接下来发生的事情就是你在下一个决策上犹豫不决。正如我们之前讨论过的,犹豫是非常危险的——首先,它会让公司陷入停滞;但更糟糕的是,如果你手下有高级管理者,他们会变得非常紧张,觉得需要跳出来填补这个真空、替你做决定。这时候政治斗争就开始了,而且是极其激烈的政治斗争,因为人们开始在你这个一团糟的小公司里争权夺利。
于是你就拥有了一个政治化、功能失调的组织。一般来说到了这一步,好吧,这个创始人恐怕已经没法再管这摊事了。事情就是这样发生的。
所以我们公司所做的很大一部分工作,就是帮助人们解决这个信心问题。我们围绕这一点有一整套思路。但你必须在某种程度上同时攀登信心曲线和能力曲线。这非常困难,特别是如果你是工程师出身,习惯了把事情做对,或者你一直是全 A 的优等生,这种落差会让你非常不适。有时候,C 减水平的学生反而更适合当 CEO。
Lenny Rachitsky: 为什么这么说?
Ben Horowitz: 嗯,这话有点半开玩笑。但核心就是——你得习惯失败。我想我在书里写过,CEO 这份”考试”的中位分大概是 18 分,不是 90 分。所以你必须习惯拿很多 D 减——因为 D 减没关系,只要你不拿 F,只要你不把现金烧光,只要你不失去一切。好吧,你挺过来了,继续走。这很大程度上就是我们在 CEO 身上努力做的事情。
Lenny Rachitsky: 对,这又回到了你第一本书的核心——我不知道该不该叫核心信息——就是你作为 CEO 会经历多少失败、多少挣扎、多少痛苦。
Ben Horowitz: 是的是的,我写那本书很大程度上就是为了把这件事说清楚。我觉得发生的情况是这样的——特别是在我写书的时候,而且我认为现在这个现象又回来了——就是所有这些成功故事被叙述的方式都是:“哦,他们想出了一个天才的点子,然后建立了这家公司,招了一堆聪明人,一切都很美好。“但实际过程完全不是这样的。从 Mark Zuckerberg 到 Sam Altman,我和他们都相处过足够长的时间——他们全都经历过同样的事情:你的公司在挣扎中求存,你搞砸了很多事情,而且后果严重,但你必须保持信心。
Lenny Rachitsky: 实际上,昨晚我参加了一个讲故事的活动,和在那里遇到的一位女士聊了几句。我跟她提到今天要和你对谈,她说你第一本书对她作为创始人来说意义非凡。正如你所说的,它让大家意识到创业就是非常艰难、非常痛苦的——这就是常态。
Ben Horowitz: 还有那种感受。你看,如果你想想组织设计、目标和指标、OKR,或者任何管理技巧,这些东西只需要初中文化水平就能掌握,并没有那么复杂。真正困难的是你在做这些事时的那种感受。比如重组这件事,难的不是设计——重组的难点在于你在重新分配权力,所以会有人对你非常愤怒,因为只要你做得对,就一定会有人失去权力。而那个人可能是一个非常优秀的员工。应对这些才是真正困难的部分。至于知道组织应该怎么设计才能让沟通更顺畅——那并不复杂。
Lenny Rachitsky: 对,我在 Airbnb 待了很长时间,经常想到 Brian,我甚至不知道他在 Airbnb 之前有没有上过班。
Ben Horowitz: 哦,是的。我和 Brian 花了很多时间在一起。新冠疫情之后,一切对他来说突然豁然开朗,然后他做了那个关于”创始人模式”的精彩演讲等等。但那个演讲之所以那么深刻、那么有说服力,是因为他之前把那些事情每一件都搞砸过——他请了 LT 和所有这些人,都是非常资深的高管,他想把决策权交给他们,但作为 CEO 你不能这样做,因为你知道 Airbnb 应该做什么。他可能更懂财务应该怎么运作,但你知道 Airbnb 应该怎么走,诸如此类。然后情况就变得很疯狂——作为 CEO,你无法把决策权交出去。你必须理解每个人在说什么,然后拍板:“现在我们这样做。”
Lenny Rachitsky: 这又回到了那个观点——你必须经历挣扎、痛苦和失败,才能学到那些教训。
CEO 的自信与 a16z 的设计
Ben Horowitz: 是的,没错。这些教训不亲身经历真的很难学到,而且往往必须承受了后果才能学到位。甚至我自己也会犯错。前几天我和 Ali 聊天,他问我:“最近怎么样,Ben?“我说:“呃,我终于在处理一件拖了很久的事情。“他问:“为什么拖了这么久?“我说:“因为之前一切太顺利了,我不需要去处理。“他说:“嗯,我懂的。“我想说,Ali 即使不是最好的私营公司 CEO,也是最好的之一——而他也在犯错,我也在犯错。所以,这确实很难。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你说过创始人作为 CEO 失败的主要原因可能是失去信心,你在这方面有一些想法来帮助创始人。能分享几个吗?
Ben Horowitz: 可以。我们在这方面做了很多工作。整个公司的设计理念就是围绕信心展开的。首先是,什么能给你信心?能把事情办成。那如果我能给你一个和 Bob Iger 一样强大的人脉网络——在你上任的第一天就拥有——会怎样?
所以我们公司有 600 人。为什么这么多?因为他们中大部分人在为你构建那个人脉网络。这样你可以给任何 CEO 打电话,给华盛顿的任何人打电话,给任何高管打电话,他们都会接,都会和你谈,你就能处理那些事情。而这会让你觉得自己像一个真正的 CEO。
然后我们公司里还有很多人,比如我自己,可以和你以 CEO 对 CEO 的方式交流,而不是投资者对 CEO 的方式,让你感受到那种氛围。在公司早期,我们曾经做过一个活动。我觉得可能会以某种形式把它重新带回来,叫”CEO 烧烤”。很多人办活动都会请演讲嘉宾,搞这个搞那个。我一直觉得那些活动,一来时间太长,二来有时候讲的东西并不太适用。
所以我说:“不如我们就办个烧烤?“我来烤肉。把所有人都请到我后院——巅峰时期有 500 人,所以我一个人实在烤不过来。然后我们会请来 Larry Page、Mark Zuckerberg、Kanye West——你作为投资组合公司的 CEO 身处其中,你会想:“哇,我一定很重要。我和这些人在一起。“大家就一起喝酒、吃烧烤、随意聊天。
然后当我回到自己的公司时,我就会觉得自己是个有分量的人。好吧,我可能不是每件事都做得完美,但我确实是一个 CEO。我可是参加过 CEO 烧烤的人,拜托。整个理念始终是:“好吧,你觉得自己能做到吗?“因为那已经是一半的战斗了。
而且,每个 CEO 都经历过那种时刻——觉得”也许我不应该来管理这个东西,也许它对我来说太大了”。那是一个很糟糕的状态,你不想让自己走到那一步。因为正如我们说过的,创始人能够做出下一个产品,而这几乎是没有任何职业 CEO 能做到的事情。有过极少数的例外,但非常罕见。
最反直觉的创业经验
Lenny Rachitsky: 显然你合作过很多公司、很多创始人。让我把视角拉远一点问你一个问题。
关于建设公司,你学到的最反直觉、与常见创业智慧相悖的教训是什么?
Ben Horowitz: 嗯,常见的创业智慧一直在变。早期有一个错误的观念,Brian 也阐述过——现在我觉得人们走向的另一个极端,同样也是错的。
第一个错误的观念是:一旦找到产品市场契合度,就尽快组建一支资深高管团队,让他们来规模化扩张。而我认为,你需要缓慢而审慎地搭建那支团队,控制节奏,与你自己整合和管理他们的能力相匹配。因为如果你一下子招进来一批资深的人,而你并不真正了解他们与你的公司是否匹配,也不了解那个职能应该怎么运作,那你就开始把决策权交给他们。一旦你开始放权,局面很快就会失控——因为他们会建立自己的帝国,会搞政治,会做所有那些事情。
所以那个建议是不对的。你必须循序渐进地来做。至于”创始人模式”,我觉得很多人把它理解为永远不要招有经验的人。那也是不对的。你看,一个知道怎么做某件事的人,真的可以加速你的业务。很早的时候,Databricks 有一位非常优秀的创始人 Arsalan 在负责销售。我跟 Ali 说:“你得招一个懂销售的人,因为 Arsalan 是计算机科学博士。我很欣赏这一点,但如果你想在对手利用 Spark 反击你之前追上他们,这可能不是你的最佳起点。”
Ben Horowitz: 我坐下来跟 Arsalan 解释了原因。我说:“你看,销售这个领域有大量关于如何搭建全球销售组织的知识——客户的认知、区域的划分、销售代表的画像等等,这些东西只能通过实践中的试错来学习,而你现在对这些一无所知。你非常优秀,我们依然需要你。“他现在仍然是公司里非常资深的高管。但我们需要一个懂这些的人。有些公司会说:“好吧,我们就是不招这种人,这就是创始人模式。“那也是一个错误。所以这里面的东西比你想象的更微妙、更复杂。你必须一路追问到真相。而这些人在播客上听来的那些小片段式的建议,全都是蠢透了的东西。
这里面有很多深度。你需要知道下一个问题的答案,再下一个、再下一个。这确实让我很抓狂。沿着这个话题,有一件很有趣的事情,正好说明作为投资人,你其实对当 CEO 意味着什么知之甚少。
我们有一次在董事会晚宴上。我们的一位 CEO 对我说:“嘿 Ben,你之前跟我说的那个’在家别当 CEO’的建议。“他说:“我之前一直在那样做,后来停下来了,真的很有帮助。”
然后旁边一位 VC 说:“是啊,你总得有放松的时候嘛。“我当时就想,“你在说什么啊?他是 CEO。他没有什么放松不放松的。他随时都在被各种事情轰炸。他必须应对这些。我说的不是那个意思。我的意思是,你不能回家之后对你的家人发号施令。我指的是这个。”
你从某个人那里听到一句话,但如果你自己没有做过那件事,你甚至不知道那句话是什么意思。然后你试图把这个建议转述给下一个人,那是不会奏效的。不过那位 VC 也是很单纯的。我不想说他的坏话,但事情听起来就是那样,对吧?但实际并不是那样。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这个故事太精彩了。所以这里的建议部分就是——不要相信你在 Twitter 上看到的每一条建议和那些碎片化的格言。
Ben Horowitz: 我觉得真正的 CEO 都懂这一点。这也正是我们这个行业容易招致恶名的原因。因为把你自己只是听来的东西当作建议给出去,而不是你自己真正懂的东西,我觉得这是非常危险的。
好产品经理,坏产品经理
Lenny Rachitsky: 说到你可能分享过的、现在已经过时的建议,你写过一篇产品经理圈子里最著名的文章,很多人都知道。听这个播客的产品经理非常多,那篇文章叫《好产品经理,坏产品经理》。如果你今天去看那篇文章,顶部会写着:“这份文档写于 15 年前,对今天的产品经理可能已经不适用了。我把它保留下来,只是作为一个有用的培训文档的范例。”
但人们仍然在转发它。我自己也一直在推荐它,觉得这是每个产品经理都必须读的东西。你觉得其中哪些部分人们可能不应该再拿来用了,哪些部分仍然值得保留?
Ben Horowitz: 嗯,我当时写那篇文章的原因是我手下有很多产品经理。产品管理这个岗位有一个特点——它在每家公司的工作内容都完全不同,而且没有任何培训。所以每个人都是在实践中自己摸索。根据公司强调的重点不同,他们会被各种具体事务缠住——如果是企业级公司,就觉得自己需要对客户做推介,或者我需要跟媒体搞好关系,或者我需要把产品需求文档写得特别好,之类的。
这些都是一些任务,但没有一个就是那份工作本身。而我在《好产品经理,坏产品经理》里想表达的是——这份工作本质上是一个领导力的工作,而且是一个很棘手的领导力工作,因为实际上没有人向你汇报。
它是一种影响力——我如何让别人去做我希望他们做的事,即便我不给他们发工资,不能开除他们,不能提拔他们,等等。这其实是真正领导力的本质,因为如果你一开始就依赖提拔和开除来建立权威,那你永远也做不好 CEO 或任何其他角色。
我希望他们建立这样一种心态:“你真正的工作是把一个产品推向市场,让用户喜爱它,而且比世界上任何其他人做出来的都要好。这才是你的工作。“要完成这个工作,你需要让工程团队清晰地理解你,你也需要清晰地理解工程团队。你需要对市场、竞争对手、技术等有很好的判断,然后把所有这些整合在一起,把产品交付出来。
其他所有的事情都是你可能需要、也可能不需要去做的具体任务。我不知道你是不是需要做那些,但关键是,你必须成为那个领导者。你必须把事情做成。所以我认为那篇文章至今仍然有价值的部分是那个心态——成为领导者。至于那些具体任务层面的细节,那其实是针对我当时在 Netscape 的团队写的——大概是 1996 年,谁知道呢。
那篇文档是我出于沮丧写出来的。但我很高兴人们仍然喜欢它。我认为领导力总体上是被低估、被低估量的。它是最强大的东西。大多数伟大的公司——黄仁勋就是一个很好的例子。他是一个多么卓越的领导者,不仅仅是领导 NVIDIA,而是领导整个行业。而他对整个行业并没有正式的权力,但他推动着整个行业向前。这也是为什么《好产品经理,坏产品经理》如此重要——因为如果你学会了那件事,那就是最关键的东西。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我之前不知道你最初只是把它写成了内部文档,然后才——
Ben Horowitz: 那个时候博客还没兴起,所以它就是一个内部的东西,后来我才发表出去。当时我真的是太生气了。顺便说一句,我当时的产品管理团队其实非常优秀,都是非常有才华的人。他们只是没有理解那个概念。像 David Wyden、Coastal Ventures 的、Raghu Raghuram——他后来成为了 VMware 的 CEO——那个团队就是这样的人,但他们快把我逼疯了。所以我想,“我不能再冲人吼了。我得把自己想要的东西解释清楚。“所以这算是一个收获——如果你发现自己老是在冲人吼,那你可能是还没有把自己想要的东西说清楚。这是那件事给我的另一个重要教训。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你当时有想过那篇文章会流传这么久吗?这么……受欢迎?
Ben Horowitz: 我完全没想到。我写的时候觉得它挺激进的。你能看出来我当时很生气。我给它起名叫《好产品经理,坏产品经理》。就像”坏狗,坏,坏产品经理”一样。那大概就是我当时的情绪。所以,你写出来的某些东西,结果出乎意料,这确实令人惊讶。
我想说的就是这个。在创作方面,你可能也有体会——有时候你五分钟写出来的东西,比你花五周写出来的东西要好得多。我跟音乐家、作家聊天时,发现大家都有同样的经验。那些你已经在心里沉淀了很久、只需要写出来的东西,才是最好的。
产品经理就是团队里的 CEO
Lenny Rachitsky: 你刚才提到产品经理是领导者这个观点。大家总有一种感觉——产品经理又不是什么 mini CEO,你怎么敢这么自称。但我倒觉得,产品经理确实就是如此。他们基本上就是离 CEO 最近的角色。他们的工作就是在团队内部像 CEO 一样思考。
Ben Horowitz: 人们会生气,因为每个人——这其实是管理中普遍存在的难题——人们对”管辖权”会嫉妒。但从产品经理的角度来看,你写了一份好的 spec 也好,做了一次好的用户访谈也好,做了这个做了那个也好,这些都不重要。重要的是产品能成。你必须一路推进到那个结果,再从那个结果往回倒推。而没有领导力你做不到这一点,因为这关乎的是——好,我们要建的是那个东西。你不必是那个提出每一个想法的人,你只是愿景的守护者。
这对 CEO 也是一样的。你不会希望公司里每一个想法都来自 CEO。我觉得人们对”CEO 是什么”有误解,所以才不喜欢那个说法。他们不知道 CEO 是什么。CEO 不是那个拥有所有想法、下达所有命令、包揽一切的人。事情不是这样运作的。
事情运作的方式是:需要有一个人来整合所有好的想法,排列优先级,决定我们要执行哪些好想法,然后让所有人达成共识,确保每个人对这个方向有高度一致的理解。所以这确实是一种 CEO 式的职能。这并不意味着我比你强,只是意味着这就是我在做的事。
投资亚当·诺伊曼
Lenny Rachitsky: Adam Neumann,WeWork 创始人,现在是 Flow 的创始人,也是你现在密切合作的人。我问他应该问你什么问题,他说你对 AI 如何影响招聘有一些非常有趣的见解。
Ben Horowitz: Adam 大概是我们做过的最具争议的一笔投资。仅仅因为投了他,我们就被骂成什么都——从愚蠢到性别歧视到种族主义,什么帽子都扣过来了。但我认为这最终会成为我们做过的最好的投资之一。他在那边做得非常出色。这背后有一个很重要的原则,也是我们作为一家机构一直在践行的事情。我觉得这个做法并不普遍,但我很希望别人也能效仿——这个原则部分是从 Shaka 那里学到的:不要用一个人身上发生过的最糟糕的事来评判他。我们都经历过不好的事情,都做过错误的决定。只不过大多数人的故事没有人拍成迷你剧罢了。
所以仅仅据此来评判一个人是不公平的。你应该根据一个人擅长什么来评判他,而不是他搞砸了什么,因为那才是你看到天赋的地方。如果你去看 Adam 做得好的那些事,真的是令人叹为观止。人人都知道 WeWork。你说出一个比 WeWork 更重要的商业地产品牌?你说不出来。这是多大的成就。这背后有太多因素,他做对了太多事情。
然后如果你仔细拆解那些出问题的地方,大部分其实是经验不足加上身边没有人愿意跟他说真话的组合。当然,也许他当时也不太善于听取真话。但是因为这个就把一个人扔掉——顺便说一句,当时全世界因为我们没有扔掉他、因为我们相信他而对我们愤怒至极——这是一个很大的错误。这件事我要归功于 Mark,因为最初是 Mark 给他打了电话,就说:“嘿,Adam,你在做什么?“因为我们看了他在 WeWork 做的事情,觉得相当令人印象深刻。
所以我觉得这大概就是最大的秘诀。Al Davis 曾经说过:“根据球员能做什么来指导他们。“我认为这话非常有道理。根据人们能做什么来评判他们,根据人们能做什么来指导他们,帮助他们发挥优势,而不是过度关注他们的弱点,整天为那一个他们不会做的事情揪心。因为你看,每个人都是参差不齐的。
Lenny Rachitsky: 你描述的这些,本质上就是投资者的工作——找到一个被低估的资产,在别人还没看到的时候投资进去。
Ben Horowitz: 风险投资本质上是投资于人。作为投资者你有自己的想法,但你最终押注的是创业者和创业者的想法,因为最初的想法通常不是他们最终做到的。每个我们投资的人都是如此,变化很大。所以你不得不对人做出判断。而你怎么做这件事,非常重要。我们在公司内部强调的一点是:我们投资的是优势,而不是没有弱点。我想知道的是他们有多强——是不是世界级的?他们有没有一项世界级的优势?这个优势能不能击败任何人?你看,每个人都有缺陷。所以我们要帮助他们应对缺陷,给他们配备能处理这些问题的人,把合适的人放在董事会上跟他沟通。
Mark 在他的董事会里,我参加他所有的董事会,因为我擅长对付那种自信到爆棚的人——就是”好吧,这不是你最好的主意”的时候需要有人站出来说。这个角色很适合我。但这就是你处理问题的方式。你不是把他扔掉然后说:“好吧,我们不想被人骂,所以我们不投 Adam Newman 了——在他建起 WeWork 之后。“那就太荒唐了。
Lenny Rachitsky: 这也是你们投资 Cluely 的原因吧,我猜逻辑类似。
Ben Horowitz: 对对,没错。你看,如果你看那几个人做的事情,那也是相当高水平的营销天才,真的很了不起。而且产品也非常棒。
AI 泡沫
Lenny Rachitsky: 让我们把话题拉回到 AI。趁我们录制这期节目的时候,很多人正在讨论一个话题——我们可能正处于一个巨大的 AI 泡沫之中。Sam Altman 说了”我们处于一个大泡沫中”,这话分量可不轻。我很好奇你怎么看——
Ben Horowitz: 这话是什么意思?首先我应该声明一下,我是个投资人,而 Sam 是 CEO。CEO 说话必须有更强的目的性,投资人只需要有趣就行了。所以你得想想 Sam 说这话对他有什么好处。如果真的是泡沫,那你应该投资的就是他,而不是那些追在他后面跑的人。
我觉得这非常聪明。另一个聪明之处在于,你对媒体说”所有追这个风口的投资人和企业家都是白痴”,没有什么比这句话更能让他们爱你了。媒体天生就是爱唱反调的,所以这话简直是给那些唱反调的人送上的大餐,也同样高明。所以我觉得不管他心里是不是真这么想,这话本身说得非常聪明。我先说这么多。而我要说的不会那么聪明,但……
我在这方面其实没什么利益诉求。我的意思是,我也可以有利益诉求,说”把其他投资人都赶出去”,然后宣称”这是一个巨大的泡沫”。但我真正想说的是,关于泡沫有一点——当所有人都觉得这是泡沫的时候,它就不是泡沫,因为要形成泡沫,需要的是”投降式追涨”。也就是说需要所有人都相信这不是泡沫,价格才会真正失控。但只要还有人认为这是泡沫,那就很难出现那种情况。说来好笑,2011还是2012年的时候,我在《经济学人》上跟 Steve Blank 有过一场辩论,当时所有人都认为科技行业存在泡沫——如果你能想象的话——但那绝对不是泡沫。当时有1400篇文章说我们正处于科技泡沫之中,而那时的价格跟现在比起来……
但我当时就知道,因为所有人都在说这是泡沫,所以它不是泡沫。我知道这一点。价格确实更高了,但价格更高的原因是我们正在进入一个全球化的市场。AI 的价格比之前的价格更高,但如果你看收入增长的数据,我们前所未见。Sam 的产品效果惊人,我们从未见过那样的东西。Google 没有,谁都没有。所以这是真实的。
我们有些公司在一年内从零增长到8亿美元收入。我想说首先,价格上涨是有基础的。我觉得 Sam 说得对的一点是,目前格局还非常早期,非常非常早期。技术还很不成熟。尽管效果已经非常惊人,但离完善还有很长的路要走。所以在技术变革如此剧烈的情况下,这些公司凭借高收入所建立的市场地位可能并不稳固,可能出现竞争格局的变化——要么价格下降,要么新的第一名出现,诸如此类。
是的,这是有可能的。但我不会把这种情况定义为金融泡沫。如果你回头看那场人人都一直盼着重演的互联网泡沫——我当时作为 CEO 亲身经历过——那时候发生的事情非常不同。当时是互联网时代,每个聪明的投资者都知道互联网是大事。你怎么可能不知道互联网是大事,这当然是大事。但如果你回到1996年,在 Netscape 的时候,我们有90%的浏览器市场份额和5000万用户。而当时全球总共只有5500万互联网用户,其中一半还在用拨号上网。
要做一个像 Evite——那张电子贺卡公司——那样的产品,需要300个工程师。当时开发这些东西就是这么难。所以账根本算不过来,所有那些创意的账都算不过来,但投资人还是不断往里砸钱。最终所有人都破产了,因为没有收入进来。等大家意识到这一点之后,就什么都不敢投了。当然,后来大家都明白了——互联网确实是真实的,Paul Krugman 不知道自己在说什么,互联网会成为一件大事。然后 Facebook、Google 和所有这些公司就涌现出来了。
但让它成为泡沫的原因是单位经济模型不成立,商业模式行不通。而现在的这些公司都在正常运转,定价也与其增长速度相匹配。所以那种情况并不存在。你可以说的是”它们不会一直这样增长下去”之类的。但我对此不太确定。这些产品,如我所说,运作得比我们过去打造过的任何科技产品都要好得多。这些东西好得令人难以置信。所以,不知道怎么说,如果非要押注的话,我押不是泡沫。我认为会出现一些调整。我觉得在风险投资领域历来如此——如果有这样一波行情,伟大的公司和糟糕的公司都会拿到融资。但那只是风险投资的常态,不是泡沫。
AI 行业的未来与投资方向
Lenny Rachitsky: 如今有四位创始人正在创业。当你展望 AI 行业的未来,比如五年、十年后,你觉得事情会如何演变?最大的机会在哪里?你们最看好哪些投资方向?
Ben Horowitz: 基础设施层面。我觉得显然有一个数据中心电力冷却方面的机会。但这有点偏离我们所做的硬核科技投资领域。还有另一层,就是拿一个给定的开源模型,看谁能以最低的延迟、最低的成本运行它——能做到这一点的人将极具价值。Google 在这方面历来非常擅长,Sam 现在也在通过 Stargate 大力建设这一层。所以我认为这将是一个非常重要的价值层。在基础模型方面,作为投资人必须非常有选择性。要在基础模型领域竞争,我们的基本经验法则是:在产品没有太大进展的情况下,你必须能够至少融资20亿美元,因为这基本就是训练一个足够有竞争力、能赚钱的模型所需要的成本。
能达到这个级别的创始人非常少。Ilya 算一个,Mary 算一个,Fei-Fei 算一个,你需要的就是这个级别的人物。至于还有谁,全世界这种人肯定不到十个。所以这是一个重要的领域,但范围很小。然后我认为应用层会非常非常有趣。你看 Sam,他现在绝大部分收入都来自 ChatGPT,几乎是全部收入。而 ChatGPT 不管你喜不喜欢,它有真正的护城河。很难把它击倒。它已经占据了稳固的位置。
所有人都在向它发起挑战——拥有强大分发渠道的人,比如 Google、Elon、Zuckerberg,所有人。但那个东西就是一直按照自己的节奏稳步前进。所以我认为应用层比人们最初想象的更加复杂,也更有粘性。人们犯的一个很大的错误就是所谓的”GPT 上的薄封装层”这个说法,这其实是完全错误的。实际上,这个说法错到什么程度呢——早在80年代,同样的话就被说过,只不过当时说的是”RDBMS 上的薄封装层”——
Lenny Rachitsky: 数据库。
Ben Horowitz: 对,对。所以这意味着像 Salesforce 这样的公司基本上只是一个薄封装层。我觉得人们犯的就是这种错误。我们现在投资了 Cursor 这家公司,如果你深入了解 Cursor 的底层,他们构建了 14 个不同的模型,真正去理解一个开发者——一个高端的、真正的开发者——是如何工作的。这些模型包含大量大量关于人们如何与他们的朋友 Cursor 对话、讨论程序设计之类的交互数据。这是真实的东西,不仅仅是基础模型上面的一层薄封装。我认为类似的應用还有很多很多。所以应用层会有大量机会。基础模型层也会有一些机会,当然你也可以投资 Sam,可以投资 Anthropic 等等。
但基础模型层的公司数量可能会非常少,而应用层的公司数量几乎是无限的。然后随着技术的进步,我们当然会看到更多可以交给 AI 来做的事情。比如自动驾驶汽车,经过很长很长很长很长的时间之后,现在已经运行得非常好了。我想大概是 Sebastian 在 2006 年赢得挑战赛、驾驶自动驾驶汽车横穿全国的时候开始的吧。二十年后的今天,它们终于投入了实际部署。这确实花了很长时间。我认为机器人比自动驾驶汽车更难。我们走着瞧吧。但那个领域当然也有大量的机会。
应用层的护城河:自有模型与专有数据
Lenny Rachitsky: 哇,好的。这个回答信息量很大。这正是我想了解的。Cursor 的例子在我们这个播客上经常被提到,尤其是在应用层方面。您的观点是,在这个领域胜出、建立护城河的方式就是——如您所说——“构建自己的模型,或者通过用户使用你的产品来积累专有数据”。对此有什么想法?
Ben Horowitz: 我觉得这最终就是必要条件。事实证明,宇宙是长尾分布的,是肥尾分布的,而人类在行为、对话等方面更是极度肥尾的。所以要想触及问题的真正含义、抓住问题的本质,在任何领域里,都比我之前想象的要复杂得多。所以早期的时候人们到处跑着说”会出现一个统治一切的大脑”之类的话。这种说法目前还没有被验证。
实际上,如果你深入底层来看,大语言模型确实以令人惊叹的方式实现了泛化,但它们也在某种程度上趋于平台期了——我们大部分情况下已经耗尽了可用的数据。所以如果你拿 GPT-5 和 GPT-4.1 来比较,看看训练成本增加了多少之类的,增长显然已经不再是线性的了。
另一方面,强化学习这一侧确实保持了线性增长,但它不会泛化。如果你构建了一个出色的编程模型,它在数学方面可能是个白痴。我认为这与三年前人们所说的话截然不同。而且目前还没有什么东西能同时实现规模化扩展和泛化,也许我们最终能达到那个阶段,但这确实为那些在各个领域更用户友好、更有效的产品打开了大门——比仅仅依赖基础模型基础设施要有效得多。当然,那些模型本身极其重要。我认为 OpenAI 可能占了 AI 领域大约 80% 的收入,差不多是那个量级。规模非常庞大,所以基础模型真的、真的很重要。然后基础的消费者应用也非常、非常重要。
它直接回答你想知道的任何问题。这些东西都是非常非常真实的。但我确实认为——尤其是当你进入企业级领域——那就不再是互联网数据了,而是企业自己的数据,情况就变得非常不同。Databricks 在这方面很成功,因为一旦你进入一家公司内部,你猜怎么着?你在乎的是访问控制。在 AI 世界里这很难。它在一些东西上做了训练,它怎么知道谁有权访问那些信息、谁没有?诸如此类。你还会遇到语义问题。如果你去看企业,找十家企业来,它们对”客户”的定义各不相同。你以为”客户”是一个基本概念。嗯,它是指 AT&T 的一个部门?还是 AT&T 这家公司?还是 AT&T 的某个人?到底什么是客户?结果证明这个定义非常重要,特别是当你在试图弄清楚诸如流失率之类的重要事情时。
所以这些东西很重要。我只能说,问题空间远比你用一个基础模型能覆盖的要大得多。也许这会改变,如果改变了,那么某些价格回头看会显得严重高估,另一些则会显得严重低估。但这还有待观察。
AI 时代创始人的机会
Lenny Rachitsky: 所以一个很重要的结论是,创始人现在仍然有大量机会去创办 AI 产品公司。
Ben Horowitz: 我认为是这样。几乎所有以前软件无法解决的问题,现在几乎都能解决了。所以这是一个非常大的世界。说起来挺有趣,我们投资了 Waymo,当你深入研究是什么让 Waymo 做到如今这么安全的时候,原因并不是播客上大家报道的那些事——不是雨夹雪和大暴雨——而是人。是那个在限速 25 的区域里开 75 的人。这对 AI 来说很难预判,因为这种情况罕见但很重要。而人类做的那些罕见、重要、疯狂的事情,数量非常庞大。我认为这适用于整个 AI 领域。所以要想让东西真正运行得很好,你必须理解人类行为这条非常肥的尾巴。
美国 AI 领导力的重要性
Lenny Rachitsky: 顺着 AI 这个话题,有一件对您非常重要的事情——很明显这也是您经常谈论的——就是美国在 AI 领域取得成功、引领全球 AI。为什么这件事如此重要?为什么您在这上面花这么多时间?
Ben Horowitz: 首先要从我对美国及其在世界中角色的看法说起。我个人的观点是,这非常、非常、非常重要。不是说社会要完全公平——因为不可能完全公平——也不是要完全平等——因为从来没有过完全平等的社会。但重要的是每个人都有机会,尤其是在文化层面,而且如果你不能利用所有的资源,你就无法推动世界进步。所以如果你扼杀了积极性之类的东西,就会出问题。如果你看今天各个国家的情况——顺便说一句——你需要的是适度的权力分散。你不想让权力完全集中,集中的权力会让每个人都有机会变得极其困难。这就是过去一百年共产主义的重大教训——它被证明是正确的。而我们今天仍然有政客在用那套说辞推销,说什么”还权于民”。
不不不。那是把权力给你自己,因为你剥夺了私营部门的所有权力,把它装进了政府,然后你把自己置于政府的掌舵位置。于是我就变得极其强大。这就是为什么无论是 Mao、Pol Pot、Ceaușescu 还是 Stalin,所有人都要死——因为当你给一个人那么大的权力,没有任何人有机会。没有激励机制,没有胡萝卜,只有大棒。所以你就挥舞那根大棒,这就是它的本质。这是一个系统问题,不是人的问题。不是 Stalin 邪恶、Ceaușescu 邪恶,而是那个系统是邪恶的。
权力集中与制度之恶
Ben Horowitz: 那个制度是邪恶的。那个制度就是邪恶的。法西斯主义也是一样。不管是 Hitler 还是 Mussolini,都无所谓。那种程度的权力就是邪恶的。
美国做得最好。从制度层面来说,它是最优的制度。它有各种各样的问题,有各种毛病。总有人想搞垮它。但如果你看《独立宣言》或者《宪法》,其中的语言非常重要。“我们认为这些真理是不言自明的。”
这意味着什么?意味着这不是我的规则,不是总统的规则,是上帝的规则。所以这些规则凌驾于总统之上,然后你在这样的框架下运作,权力就被分散了,因为你服从的是法律,而不是某个人。我们现在看欧洲也能看到这一点,那里的领导人在说,“嗯,我有一条规定。你不能说某些话,否则我就把你关进监狱。” 他们躲在所谓的挡箭牌后面——“我们要保护孩子们的安全。” 但如果你说了我不赞同的话,孩子们听到了,他们就不安全了。于是那种传递性的胡扯就要凌驾于一切之上了。
所以我们至少要有一个这样的社会,这非常重要。尽管我们有很多缺陷,尽管美国有很多缺陷,它仍然是最好的。你可以从新公司创建的数量、从这里涌现的新想法的数量等等方面看出来。美国在世界舞台上保持重要性和实力,真的、真的非常重要。
我们从上个世纪可以了解到——如果你回顾上个世纪,拥有经济实力、军事实力、文化实力的国家是哪些?是那些实现了工业化的国家,是那些最早、最好地实现了工业化的国家。而那些走上共产主义道路的国家,比如俄罗斯、中国,它们在工业化上落后了,然后陷入了这个他妈的非常危险的系统。
展望未来,这种情况还会重演,但这次会是 AI。所以美国在这方面取得成功,不仅仅对美国至关重要,对全人类都至关重要。我们不一定要成为唯一的赢家之类的,但我们必须要处于那个梯队。
我在世界各地旅行时,我都没法告诉你,每个人……顺便说一句,之前每个人都对我们非常、非常担忧。他们说,“你看,我们需要你们成功。不要搞垮美元。不要在 AI 上落后。不要过早过度监管。请不要做这些事情,因为我们需要你们赢,因为我们都指望你们。”
我认为这是我们所做的最重要的工作。这也是为什么我们如此深入地参与政策制定等等。我认为加密货币领域也会非常、非常类似——它最终会成为一种极其重要的网络技术,与 AI 形成互补。这项工作,我想说,超越了赚钱的层面。虽然有了正确的政策我们最终也会赚很多钱,所以我不想显得完全是在做慈善,但它比赚钱更重要。当然,这也比我们自己成功与否更重要——国家要成功。
Paid in Full 基金会
Lenny Rachitsky: 说到慈善和你的其他热情,有一件事我觉得大多数人并不了解你,而且我认为这会让人们对你有另一层认识——你运营着一个叫 Paid in Full 的组织,非常酷。能谈谈这个组织是做什么的,为什么对你如此重要吗?
Ben Horowitz: 我们公司的精神,我想可以说是”从无到有”。这就是创业的伟大之处。你从一无所有开始,然后创造出真正重要的东西。Hip-hop 也是这样起步的——一群连乐器都没有的孩子,从无到有地创造了了不起的东西。那个世界里的人一直在谈论这一点。
而一件非常令人遗憾的事情是,发明这种艺术形式的人——尤其是在 Hip-hop 的情况下——所获得的回报与他们发明所带来的影响力完全不成比例。他们中的很多人已经被人们遗忘了,或者在为了维持生计而苦苦挣扎。
所以我们创建了这样一个东西,叫 Paid in Full Foundation,以 Rakim 和 Eric B. 的那首歌命名。我确实打电话给 Rakim 征求了使用这个名字的许可,我们没有直接拿来用。我们做的事情本质上是给老一辈说唱歌手提供养老金,让他们能够继续自己的创作。
然后我们还有一场盛大的活动——去 paidinfullfoundation.org 购票——非常精彩,他们会获奖,被所有同行共同庆祝等等。真的很棒。一些获奖者包括 Rakim、Geto Boys 的 Scarface、Roxanne Shante、Grandmaster Caz、Kool Moe Dee。
今年我们要致敬 George Clinton,因为他的作品被大量采样,还有 Kool G Rap、Grand Puba,以及 Whodini 的 Jalil。我都无法形容这对他们的影响有多大。Rakim 之前每年差不多巡演将近 200 个晚上,他拿到我们的奖之后,推出了 15 年来的第一张专辑,现在发展得非常好。突然之间所有人都在说,“哦对,那是有史以来最伟大的说唱歌手。” 他们终于回头想起了他所做的一切。Roxanne Shante,人们已经很多很多年没有提起过她了。我想我们给她颁奖六个月后,格莱美就给她颁发了终身成就奖,太了不起了。影响力非常大,是一件很好的事情。作为一个 Hip-hop 迷,我说这是梦想成真。这是我唯一的”负罪”。
与 Hip-hop 的渊源
Lenny Rachitsky: 你和 Hip-hop 之间的故事是怎么开始的?我想很多人看到你,大概不会想到你身后那些 Nas 送你的唱片。你在这个社区里深入到这种程度,这一切是怎么开始的?
Ben Horowitz: 其实我写过一篇博客叫《The Legend of the Blind MC》,如果你真的很感兴趣的话,值得一读。那基本上是我成为一名说唱歌手的故事,怎么发生的,后来怎么样了等等。
我总是说,极简版的故事是这样的:我在纽约经历了 Hip-hop 的诞生,以及它真正变得巨大的那个时期,84 年到 88 年。亲眼目睹一种新的艺术形式破土而出,那种创造力和一切,真的是最令人兴奋的事情。
一旦音乐成为主流,我会说它很大程度上会被商业所塑造。而在早期,每个人都在把自己脑子里任何想法拿出来。早期摇滚乐是这样的,早期爵士乐也是这样的。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我现在更加明白你们为什么招了 Erik Torenberg。除了他众多的才能之外,他本人也真的非常热衷于说唱。
Ben Horowitz: 对,好提醒。我得确保他能去 Paid in Full。
给 CEO 们的最后建议
Lenny Rachitsky: Ben,这次对话太精彩了。在我们进入非常令人期待的快速闪电问答之前,你还有什么想对听众说的或者分享的吗?
Ben Horowitz: 我只想说,如果你是一个正在听这期节目的 CEO,那么你要知道,你如何看待自己,最终会和其他任何因素一样重要,在这件事上要给自己时间。自我评价……我最喜欢的一句话之一是,我的老上司看到我时说的——正如 select players 所知——“从今天起,预测下雨不会得到任何功劳,只有建造方舟才能获得肯定。”
我认为这对 CEO 来说比对任何人都更加真实。你必须建造方舟。你预测自己会失败并不重要,你仍然失败了。预测失败不会给你带来任何东西。所以你要做的是找到出路,把所有时间都花在这上面。
Lenny Rachitsky: 好了,到此我们进入了非常令人期待的闪电问答环节。我为你准备了五个问题。准备好了吗?
Ben Horowitz: 好的。
Lenny Rachitsky: 第一个问题,你最常推荐给别人的两三本书是什么?不包括你自己的书。
Ben Horowitz: 有两本我从中学到很多的。一本是《The Weirdest People in the World》,这是一部体量很大的历史书,但采用了人类学、文化学的视角来审视。非常引人入胜。它解释了大量关于社会运作方式的道理,以及规则中微小的变化如何彻底改变文化。
作者试图解释的核心问题之一是,为什么西方走在了世界其他地区的前面?归根结底,这源于天主教会的一个奇特反常之举——他们推行了一夫一妻制婚姻。事实上,人类社会的自然状态是多偶制,但多偶制的问题在于,男性之间无法合作,这很成问题。由此导致的结果是,一切都变成了秘密,知识无法共享,因为所有东西都留在家族内部,形成了一种他所说的亲缘文化。
这种亲缘文化的结果是,连食谱都不会被共享,因为那是秘密。所以你无法建立科学,无法建立城市,无法建立大公司。正因为西方很早就推行了广泛的一夫一妻制婚姻,所以能够演化出这一切。
他详细展示了原因和过程。他对当今来自一夫一妻制文化、西方文化和亲缘文化的人做了心理测试,心理状态完全不同。他举了一些例子,比如一个人杀了另一个人,如果杀人者是你的兄弟,那还算不算谋杀?在西方社会,是的,那是谋杀。在亲缘文化中,那不算谋杀。就是不算。
这真的很不一样。所以道德观念不同,一切都由此衍生出来。这真是一本引人入胜的书,这是第一本。
另一本我经常推荐的是 Shaka 的书,他的第一本书《Writing My Wrongs》。他还有一本新书我觉得更好,叫《How to Be Free》。还没有正式出版,或者可能即将出版。下个月就会发行,我推荐这本。
这本书讲述了他如何从监狱和单独监禁中走出来,达到现在的心理状态,以及他使用了哪些方法。这些想法非常有力量,非常有力量。CEO 们总是问我,“你怎么应对的?你怎么处理的?“他们会问到工作与生活的平衡。我就想说,“你在说什么?CEO 没有工作与生活的平衡,“尤其是创业型 CEO,拜托。
但你到底该怎么做?冥想吗?做这个做那个吗?他的书里确实梳理了你真正应该做的事情。如果有人想知道如何应对所有这些压力,我会推荐这本书。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我太喜欢这个了。Shaka 这样一个曾经杀过人、进过监狱、领导过监狱帮派的人,竟然成为 CEO 们的帮助者。我就是喜欢这一点,他的经验教训竟然如此有价值——
Ben Horowitz: 监狱帮派其实是管理上非常复杂的事情。抱歉扯到这个话题,但管理监狱帮派的问题是,你面对的人都来自破碎的文化。
在任何组织中,最根本的东西就是信任。而你带进来的是一群毫无信任基础的人。这有点像军事组织。它就是一个帮派。想想军事行动,如果缺乏信任,人们不信任命令,那就完全无法运转。
所以如何从零开始建立信任,是一个非常有趣的问题。而他在这一点上是个天才。我从跟他的交流中学到了很多。所以从管理角度来看,我认为这是一个关于如何建立文化的重要的极端案例。他在这方面非常非常聪明。就像我说的,你要看到人们的伟大之处,而不是他们做过的最糟糕的事。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我知道这是闪电问答环节,但你能分享一个他做过的事情吗?就是那种让人觉得”哇,这真是个很好的教训”,对想要建立好文化的人很有启发的例子?
Ben Horowitz: 可以。他做了一件我觉得非常聪明的事……实际上他做了好几件事。一件是很简单的事——他让帮派里所有人一起吃午饭,以此来建立融洽关系、信任,就像这一切是一体的,我们都是在一起的。
尤其是在远程办公的时代,我觉得人们真的低估了这个简单想法的力量。他还做了另一件事,就是把道德标准变得非常具体——你必须在内部和外部都信守承诺。
通常一个帮派,就像我说的,有点像亲缘文化的模式。但当他说”你在帮派外面也不能做那些阴损的事”时,这就让组织变得强大得多。他有很多这方面的例子,我在书里详细讲过。
就像我说的,因为你是从零开始建立,你必须在一些问题上采取强硬立场,而这些问题在普通公司里人们甚至不会那么较真。内部说谎可以吗?大概不行。对客户说谎可以吗?在某些组织中是可以的,但在 Shaka 的组织中,对客户说谎和对内部说谎的惩罚一样重。我认为这些事情最终都非常重要。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我们会在节目笔记里放上这本书的链接。这就是《你所做的即你所是》,你的第二本书,知道的人相对少一些。里面就讲述了这个故事,以及关于建立文化的经验教训——
Ben Horowitz: 对,这本算是更进阶的书。你得先活下来,才会关心如何处理文化问题。所以那本关于生存的书(《创业维艰》)读者面更广。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太好了。我们继续闪电问答。你最近有没有特别喜欢的电影或电视剧?
Ben Horowitz: 电视剧的话,我很喜欢《Slow Horses》,就是那部关于军情六处被边缘化的人的剧。电影的话我最近没怎么看,但我去电影院看了《Sinners》。那个摄影简直不可思议,故事非常原创,演技精湛,服装也很惊艳。这是一部非常全面、出色的作品。它的工艺水准远远超出了如今大多数电影人正在做的水平,所以我非常喜欢。
Lenny Rachitsky: 我讨厌恐怖片,但我看了之后很喜欢。
Ben Horowitz: 它没那么恐怖。
Lenny Rachitsky: 是没那么恐怖,但还是会有僵尸从角落里蹦出来,这通常不是我的菜。
有没有你最近发现、特别喜欢的某个产品?可以是小工具,可以是衣服,也可以是别的什么。
Ben Horowitz: 我买了一台咖啡机,叫 Technivorm Moccamaster,简直太棒了。实际上,我一个朋友看到后问,“那是什么?“我直接也给他买了一台,因为这东西太好了。它做出来的咖啡堪称完美,没有苦味,口感非常干净,太惊艳了。唯一的问题是,我现在已经喝不了它以外的咖啡机做出来的咖啡了。不知道这是好事还是坏事,但是……
Lenny Rachitsky: 也许未来 AI 能解决这个问题。
Ben Horowitz: 哈哈。
Lenny Rachitsky: 还有最后两个问题。第一个,有没有一句你在工作或生活中经常回来、觉得很有用的人生座右铭?
人生座右铭
Ben Horowitz: 对我影响最大的一句话,是我父亲多年前对我说的:“人生不公平。“这听起来非常非常简单,但我觉得,仅仅就我的人生观察而言,最能击垮一个人的,就是对某种公平的期待。世界就是不公平的。
各种事情会发生在你身上,发生在每个人身上,而不会发生在别人身上,而且完全不公平。但这不重要,因为事情就是这样。一旦你把这个念头从脑海中丢掉,你就可以直接应对——哦,当然不公平,但我现在该做什么?这才是真正的问题,而不是我怎么回去让别人对我公平?没有人会对你公平。世界不公平。
这是它的本质。你想超过五秒钟就会明白这一点。作为个体,如果你想——让世界变得更好什么的——随你,但作为个体,不要期待任何事情是公平的,那只会让你被打败。
三张专辑构建商业课程
Lenny Rachitsky: 最后一个问题。这个问题其实是 Shaka 提出来的。他给了我好多很好的建议,我都不舍得把这个留到最后了。问题是:如果你必须用两张嘻哈专辑和一张放克专辑来构建一门商业课程,你会选哪三张,为什么?
Ben Horowitz: 我想大概是 Rakim 的《Follow the Leader》。原因就是我们之前聊到的那个话题——领导力。当他推出那首歌的时候,那可能是有史以来最伟大的嘻哈歌曲,他在告诉大家跟着他走,follow the leader。仅仅是他认为自己是整个艺术形式的领袖,而不仅仅是自己乐队的领袖——这个想法就很了不起。然后他表达这个想法的方式也是令人叹为观止。那张专辑里还有其他很棒的概念,会让你……很难听了那张唱片还没有信心。
从纯粹竞争的角度来说,我会选 Nas 的《Stillmatic》,里面有《Get Ur Self a Gun》,有《You’re da Man》。关于竞争的一切理念都浓缩在那张专辑里了,所以另一张就是它。
放克的话,肯定是《One Nation Under a Groove》。因为它是关于——你怎么把人们引入一个概念或想法,怎么让他们被灌注其中。《One Nation Under a Groove》讲的就是加入这个 nation(国度),音乐上极其有趣,让人融入其中成为一部分。如果你明天再问我,我大概会给出另外三张。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太厉害了。我要去听听这几张。Ben,最后一个问题,听众可以怎样帮到你?
Ben Horowitz: 如果你得到了让你变得更好的东西,请拿去用。如果你需要更多建议,告诉我。我的工作就是帮助每个人建立伟大的事业,所以如果你是创业者,感谢你所做的事。
Lenny Rachitsky: 另外也请关注 Paid in Full,网址是 paidinfullfoundation.org,如果你想了解更多关于这个非营利组织的信息。
Ben Horowitz: 是的,一定要去,我们很欢迎你。
Lenny Rachitsky: 太棒了。Ben,非常感谢你来参加节目。
Ben Horowitz: 好,太棒了。谢谢你,Lenny。
Lenny Rachitsky: 大家再见。非常感谢收听。如果你觉得这期节目有价值,可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或你最喜欢的播客应用上订阅本节目。另外,请考虑给我们评分或留下评论,因为这真的能帮助其他听众找到这个播客。你可以在 lennyspodcast.com 找到所有往期节目或了解更多关于本节目的信息。下期见。
术语表
| 原文 | 中文 |
|---|---|
| a16z | 知名风投公司 Andreessen Horowitz 的简称,保留原文 |
| Adam Newman | Adam Newman(人名,保留原文) |
| Al Davis | Al Davis(人名,保留原文) |
| Ali | Ali(人名,保留原文,指 Ali Ghodsi,Databricks CEO) |
| Ali Goetze | Ali Goetze(人名,保留原文) |
| Arsalan | Arsalan(人名,保留原文) |
| AT&T | AT&T(公司名,保留原文) |
| Bob Iger | Bob Iger(人名,迪士尼前 CEO,保留原文) |
| Brian | Brian(指 Brian Chesky,Airbnb CEO,保留原文) |
| Ceaușescu | Ceaușescu(人名,保留原文) |
| Citigroup | 花旗集团 |
| Cluely | Cluely(公司名,保留原文) |
| Coastal Ventures | Coastal Ventures(投资机构名,保留原文) |
| Cursor | Cursor(产品/公司名,保留原文) |
| Databricks | Databricks(公司名,保留原文) |
| David Wyden | David Wyden(人名,保留原文) |
| Elon | Elon(指 Elon Musk,人名,保留原文) |
| Eric B. | Eric B.(人名,说唱歌手/制作人,保留原文) |
| Erik Torenberg | Erik Torenberg(人名,保留原文) |
| Evite | Evite(公司/产品名,保留原文) |
| Fei-Fei | Fei-Fei(指 Fei-Fei Li / 李飞飞,人名,保留原文) |
| Flow | Flow(公司名,保留原文) |
| founder mode | 创始人模式 |
| George Clinton | George Clinton(人名,音乐人,保留原文) |
| Geto Boys | Geto Boys(嘻哈组合名,保留原文) |
| Good Product Manager, Bad Product Manager | 好产品经理,坏产品经理 |
| GPT-4.1 | GPT-4.1(模型名,保留原文) |
| GPT-5 | GPT-5(模型名,保留原文) |
| Grand Puba | Grand Puba(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Grandmaster Caz | Grandmaster Caz(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Hadoop | Hadoop(开源分布式计算框架,保留原文) |
| Hitler | Hitler(人名,保留原文) |
| How to Be Free | 《How to Be Free》(书名,保留原文) |
| Ilya | Ilya(指 Ilya Sutskever,人名,保留原文) |
| Jalil | Jalil(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Jan Stoicka | Jan Stoicka(人名,原文注音不准,保留原文) |
| Jensen | 黄仁勋(NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang) |
| JFK Jr. | 小肯尼迪 |
| John Reed | John Reed(人名,Citigroup 前 CEO,保留原文) |
| Kanye West | Kanye West(人名,保留原文) |
| kin-based culture | 亲缘文化 |
| Kool G Rap | Kool G Rap(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Kool Moe Dee | Kool Moe Dee(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Larry Page | Larry Page(人名,保留原文) |
| Lenny Rachitsky | Lenny Rachitsky(人名,保留原文) |
| LoudCloud | LoudCloud(公司名,保留原文) |
| LT | LT(人名,保留原文) |
| Mao | Mao(人名,保留原文) |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Mark Zuckerberg(人名,保留原文) |
| Mary | Mary(人名,保留原文) |
| Mussolini | Mussolini(人名,保留原文) |
| Nas | Nas(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Netscape | Netscape(公司名,保留原文) |
| Paid in Full Foundation | Paid in Full Foundation(基金会名,保留原文) |
| Paul Krugman | Paul Krugman(人名,保留原文) |
| Pol Pot | Pol Pot(人名,保留原文) |
| product market fit | 产品市场契合度 |
| Raghu Raghuram | Raghu Raghuram(人名,保留原文) |
| Rakim | Rakim(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Roxanne Shante | Roxanne Shante(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Salesforce | Salesforce(公司名,保留原文) |
| Sam Altman | Sam Altman(人名,保留原文) |
| Scarface | Scarface(人名,说唱歌手,保留原文) |
| Sebastian | Sebastian(人名,指 Sebastian Thrun,保留原文) |
| Shaka Senghor | Shaka Senghor(人名,保留原文) |
| Sinners | 《Sinners》(电影名,保留原文) |
| Slow Horses | 《Slow Horses》(剧集名,保留原文) |
| Spark | Spark(开源大数据处理框架,保留原文) |
| Stalin | Stalin(人名,保留原文) |
| Stargate | Stargate(项目名,保留原文) |
| Steve Blank | Steve Blank(人名,保留原文) |
| Technivorm Moccamaster | Technivorm Moccamaster(咖啡机品牌/型号,保留原文) |
| The Hard Thing About Hard Things | 创业维艰 |
| The Weirdest People in the World | 《世界上最怪异的人》(书名,保留原文) |
| VMware | VMware(公司名,保留原文) |
| Wang | Wang(引用的说唱歌词作者,保留原文) |
| Waymo | Waymo(公司名,保留原文) |
| WeWork | WeWork(公司名,保留原文) |
| What You Do Is Who You Are | 你所做的即你所是 |
| Whodini | Whodini(嘻哈组合名,保留原文) |
| Writing My Wrongs | 《Writing My Wrongs》(书名,保留原文) |
| Zuck | Zuck(指 Mark Zuckerberg,保留原文昵称) |
此文档由 AI 分片翻译(translate_long_document)