对穴居人来说,几乎没有什么东西是资源
对穴居人来说,几乎没有什么东西是资源
曾经有一段时间,煤炭并不是一种资源
Brett: 英国独立电视台曾有一则报道,谈论亚马逊产生了多少所谓的浪费,说亚马逊经常销毁大量产品。
我想,“为什么这些人要对他们一无所知的企业发表意见?“他们难道更希望亚马逊拥有完美知识,精确知道需要生产多少产品吗?换句话说,这是一种认识论上不可能实现的情况。还是他们更希望亚马逊生产不足量的产品,这样想购买的人实际上无法买到?
当然,亚马逊的做法是生产比他们需要的略多一些。任何企业都是这样做的。他们时不时会生产比当前需求略多一些的产品。
Naval: 我曾经有一位风险投资家跟我争论,说鞋的种类太多了,这是资本主义失败的例子,因为没有人需要这么多类型的运动鞋。
我问他的问题是,“你是什么时候知道鞋子太多的?“历史上有哪个时间点我们决定鞋子已经太多了?在我们需要更多鞋子之前,因为我们需要更有弹性的鞋子,我们需要更耐用的鞋子,我们需要更厚鞋底的鞋子,我们需要更轻的鞋子,我们需要各种惊人的鞋子创新。
然后在某个时刻,有人决定,“实际上我们有足够的鞋子了。现在我们需要消灭所有其他鞋类产品线。“你是从哪里得出这个想法的,你恰好出生在正确的时间和地点,能够确定我们确实有足够的鞋子了?
这是每个人都容易陷入的一种狭隘观念。
还有一个更宏观的版本,就是这种”我们正在耗尽资源”的哲学。它始于这样一种观念:地球是有限的,存在有限的资源集合,我们正在消耗所有这些资源。因此,如果我们不抑制消费,我们都会死亡。
首先,你是怎么决定是地球的?你怎么决定你的城镇没有耗尽资源?为什么城镇不是你想要拯救的实际区域,而城镇之外的一切都是外国和无法到达的?
为什么要把边界画在地球周围?我们可以去太阳系。我们可以去银河系,我们可以去宇宙。我们可以去多元宇宙。如果你知道如何利用它们,那里有很多资源。
然后,你如何定义什么是资源?资源只是通过知识你可以从一种东西转换成另一种东西的东西。
曾经有一段时间,煤炭不是资源;铁不是资源。对穴居人来说,几乎没有什么东西是资源——只有少数可食用植物和一些可食用动物,仅此而已。
驯化、收获作物、冶金、化学、物理、开发发动机和火箭——所有这些都是将我们认为毫无价值的东西变成资源的过程。铀从完全毫无价值变成了令人难以置信的资源。
这种有限资源的世界模型隐含地假定了有限的知识。它说知识创造已经结束。我们被困在目前这个点,因此,基于我们目前拥有的知识,这些就是我们所有可用的资源。现在我们必须开始保护。
但知识是我们总能创造更多的东西。
To a Caveman Very Few Things Are Resources
There was a time when coal wasn’t a resource
Brett: There was a story on ITV in the U.K. talking about how much supposed waste Amazon produces, that Amazon was routinely destroying a whole bunch of products.
I thought, “Why are these people inserting their opinion into a business that they know absolutely nothing about?” Would they prefer Amazon to have the perfect knowledge of precisely how many products need to be made? In other words, an epistemologically impossible situation to be in. Or would they prefer that Amazon made insufficient products, so the people who wanted to purchase them weren’t actually able to get ahold of them?
What Amazon does, of course, is make slightly more than what they need. That’s what happens in any business. They make slightly more than what they need now and again.
Naval: I once had a venture capitalist argue to me that there were too many kinds of shoes and it was an example of how capitalism had failed because nobody needs this many kinds of sneakers.
My question to him was, “When did you know that there were too many shoes?” What’s the point in history where we decide there are too many shoes? Before we needed more shoes because we needed more stretchy shoes, we needed more durable shoes, we needed thicker soled shoes, we needed lighter shoes, we needed all kinds of amazing shoe innovations.
And then at some point, somebody decides, “Actually we have enough shoes. Now we need to kill all the other shoe lines.” Where did you come up with this idea that you just happened to be born at the right time and the right place to identify that yes we have enough shoes?
This is a certain parochialism that everyone falls into.
There’s a more macro version of it, which is this “we’re running out of resources” philosophy. It starts with this idea that the Earth is finite, that there’s this finite set of resources and we’re consuming them all. And therefore we’re all going to die if we don’t tamp back our consumption.
First of all, how did you decide that it was the Earth? How did you decide that your town wasn’t running out of resources? Why wasn’t the town the actual area that you wanted to save and then everything outside of that was foreign and unreachable?
Why draw the boundary around the Earth? We could go to the solar system. We could go to the galaxy, we could go to the universe. We could go to the multiverse. There are a lot of resources out there if you know how to harness them.
Then, how do you define what a resource is? A resource is just something that through knowledge you can convert from one thing to another.
There was a time when coal wasn’t a resource; iron wasn’t a resource. To a caveman very few things are resources—just a few edible plants and a few edible animals and that’s it.
Domestication, harvesting crops, metallurgy, chemistry, physics, developing engines and rockets—all of these are things that are taking things that we thought were worthless and turning them into resources. Uranium has gone from being completely worthless to being an incredible resource.
This finite resource model of the world implicitly assumes finite knowledge. It says knowledge creation has come to an end. We are stuck at this current point, and, therefore, based on the knowledge that we have currently, these are all the resources available to us. Now we must start conserving.
But knowledge is a thing that we can always create more of.