科学没有尽头

Naval Ravikant 2021-03-31

科学没有尽头

我们可以持续取得进步

布雷特: 爱丁顿的实验是所谓的关键检验的一个绝佳例子,这在某种程度上是科学精髓的顶峰。

如果我们进行一项测试,结果与我们拥有的特定理论不符,那就有问题。但这并不意味着它推翻了该理论。如果你要推翻你拥有的唯一理论,你还能转向哪里?你没有任何替代方案。

如果我们明天进行一项科学测试,结果与广义相对论不一致,那会怎样?没有广义相对论的替代理论。事实上,多年来一直有一些实验似乎与广义相对论不一致。你猜怎么着?结果证明它们都是有缺陷的。如果你必须在广义相对论是否被你的测试推翻或你的测试是否有缺陷之间做出选择,那就选择你的测试有缺陷这一事实。

在爱丁顿实验的案例中,我们有两个可行的引力理论。一方面我们有牛顿的万有引力理论,另一方面我们有爱因斯坦的广义相对论

你所描述的日食期间光线弯曲程度的实验是描述所发生情况的正确方式。并不是说我们在某种最终意义上证明了广义相对论是正确的;而是我们推翻了牛顿的引力理论。牛顿的理论被排除了,因为它与测试不一致,而广义相对论与测试一致。

这并不意味着广义相对论是科学的最终定论。它意味着它是我们目前拥有的最佳理论,并且有很多理由让我们可能认为广义相对论在最终分析中必定是错误的。这是世界观的另一个方面——我们永远没有最终定论——这是一件好事。这是乐观的,因为它意味着我们可以不断改进,我们可以不断取得进步,我们可以不断发现新事物。科学没有尽头。

人们曾担心有一天进步会停止,科学会终结。事实上,我们正处于无限的开端,并且我们将永远处于无限的开端,正是因为我们能够改进我们的想法。

我们是容易犯错的人类。我们的理论都不是完美的,因为我们并不完美。我们创造知识的过程也不完美。它是容易出错的。


There Is No End of Science

We can keep on making progress

Brett: Eddington’s experiment is an excellent example of what’s called a crucial test, which is sort of the pinnacle of what science is all about.

If we do a test and it doesn’t agree with a particular theory that we have, that’s problematic. But that doesn’t mean that it refutes the theory. If you were to refute the only theory that you have, where do you jump to? You don’t have any alternative.

If we were to do a scientific test tomorrow and it was inconsistent with the theory of general relativity, then what? There is no alternative to general relativity. In fact, there have been experiments over the years that seem to have been inconsistent with general relativity. Guess what? They’ve all turned out to be faulty. If you had to choose between whether or not general relativity has been refuted by your test or your test is flawed, go with the fact that your test is flawed.

In the case of Eddington’s experiment, we had two viable theories for gravity. We had Newton’s theory of universal gravitation on the one hand and we had Einstein’s general theory of relativity on the other.

The experiment you described of how much the light bends during a solar eclipse is the correct way of describing what happened. It is not that we showed that general relativity was correct in some final sense; rather, we refuted Newton’s theory of gravitation. Newton’s theory was ruled out because it was inconsistent with the test, while general relativity was consistent with the test.

This doesn’t mean that general relativity is the final word in science. It means that it’s the best theory we have for now, and there’s a whole bunch of reasons that we might think general relativity ultimately has to be false in the final analysis. This is another aspect of the world view that we never have the final word—and that’s a good thing. That’s optimistic because it means we can keep improving, we can keep making progress, and we can keep discovering new things. There is no end of science.

People have feared that one day progress will come to a halt, that science will end. In fact, we are at the beginning of infinity, and we will always be at the beginning of infinity precisely because we can improve our ideas.

We’re fallible human beings. None of our theories is perfect, because we aren’t perfect. The process by which we create knowledge isn’t perfect, either. It’s error-prone.