理性乐观主义是出路
理性乐观主义是出路
纳瓦尔：
那些从同行那里获得反馈的职业往往会变得腐败。
当你看到记者写文章是为了打动其他记者，或者餐厅老板试图取悦其他美食家和餐厅老板时，这通常既不实用也不高质量。
记者或餐厅老板可能在特定精英圈子里获得赞誉，但这并不能反映现实。
科学家或实验主义者从大自然那里获得反馈，而企业家则从自由市场获得反馈——人们在市场中用金钱和时间投票。这些是更好的预测指标。
在现实世界中工作并获得报酬的人往往乐观。在象牙塔中工作的人则有动力成为悲观主义者。
布雷特：
要成为企业家，你需要对自己创造的东西会被他人认可其价值持乐观态度。
持有悲观哲学的人往往也有悲观的心理学倾向。
如果你不断思考世界将如何崩溃和毁灭，那么这会对你的日常观感产生全方位影响——对社会、家庭和朋友——因为你认为这个世界注定要完蛋。
你会感受到肩上的重担，这也会体现在你向世界展示自己的方式中。
我们在社交媒体上看到很多这种情况。企业家通常太忙，没时间花大量时间在社交媒体上，但你会看到科学家、学者和记者对生活感到沮丧，因为他们对现实持悲观看法。这影响了他们对世界的主观体验。
另一方面，那些创造者正试图将新事物带入存在。
纳瓦尔：
不幸的是，悲观主义是自我实现的。
我们在此持这样的立场：所有罪恶都源于知识的缺乏。理性乐观主义是出路。数据支持这一点，历史也支持这一点。
通过创造力，我们总能找到好的解释来改善我们和所有人的生活。
所以保持乐观。
Rational Optimism Is the Way Out
Naval: Professions in which you get your feedback from other members of that profession tend to get corrupted.
When you see a journalist writing articles to impress other journalists or a restaurant owner trying to impress other foodies and restaurant owners, it’s usually not practical or high-quality.
The journalist or restaurant owner may receive accolades within certain elite circles, but that doesn’t reflect reality.
A scientist or an experimentalist gets feedback from Mother Nature, and an entrepreneur gets feedback from a free market in which people vote with their money and time. Those are much better predictors.
People who get paid to operate in the real world tend to be optimistic. People who operate in ivory towers are incentivized to be pessimists.
Brett: To be an entrepreneur, you need to be optimistic about the fact that you’re creating something that other people are going to find value in.
People who have a pessimistic philosophy tend to have a pessimistic psychology as well.
If you’re constantly thinking about all the ways in which the world is going to wreck and ruin, then this has a day-to-day impact on your outlook on everything—the rest of society, your family, and your friends—because you think this world is condemned.
You’re going to feel that weight on your shoulders, and that’s going to come through in how you present yourself to the rest of the world.
We see a lot of this on social media. Entrepreneurs are typically too busy to spend a whole lot of time on social media, but you get scientists, academics and journalists who are depressed with life because they have a pessimistic view of reality. That impacts their subjective experience of the world.
On the other hand, people who are creating are trying to bring something new into existence.
Naval: Unfortunately, pessimism is self-fulfilling.
Here we take the stance that all evils are due to lack of knowledge. Rational optimism is the way out. The data supports it, and history supports it.
Through creativity, we can always come up with good explanations to improve our lives and everybody else’s lives.
So stay optimistic.