产品和媒体是新的杠杆
产品和媒体是新的杠杆
创造在你睡觉时为你工作的软件和媒体
Naval: 最有趣也是最重要的杠杆形式是这种没有边际复制成本的产品理念。这是一种新的杠杆形式。
这只是在过去几百年里才被发明的。它始于印刷机。随着广播媒体的发展而加速,现在随着互联网和编码技术的出现而真正爆发。
现在,你可以在不需要其他人参与、也不需要从其他人那里获得资金的情况下,成倍地扩大你的努力。
这个播客就是一种杠杆形式。很久以前,我不得不坐在演讲厅里亲自给你们每个人讲课。我可能只能接触到几百人,仅此而已。
然后在40年前、30年前,我必须很幸运才能上电视,那是别人的杠杆。他们会扭曲信息。他们会从中抽走经济利益或向我收费。他们会混淆信息,而我能获得那种形式的杠杆就已经很幸运了。
今天,多亏了互联网,我可以买一个便宜的麦克风,连接到笔记本电脑或iPad上,你们就都在听了。
产品杠杆是新财富的来源
这种最新的杠杆形式是所有新财富的来源,所有新的亿万富翁都是通过它产生的。上一代人的财富是通过资本创造的。那就是沃伦·巴菲特那样的世界。
但新一代的财富都是通过代码或媒体创造的。乔·罗根通过他的播客每年赚取5千万到1亿美元。你会有像PewDiePie这样的人。我不知道他赚了多少钱,但他比新闻还火。《堡垒之夜》的玩家们。当然还有杰夫·贝索斯、马克·扎克伯格、拉里·佩奇、谢尔盖·布林、比尔·盖茨和史蒂夫·乔布斯。这些都是基于代码的杠杆。
结合所有三种杠杆形式是神奇的组合
现在,美妙之处在于当你把这三种杠杆结合起来。这就是科技初创公司真正擅长的地方,你只需要最少但产出最高的劳动力,也就是工程师、设计师、产品开发人员。然后你加入资本。你用它来进行营销、广告宣传和规模化扩张。你加入大量的代码、媒体、播客和内容来传播出去。
这是一个神奇的组合,这就是为什么你会看到科技初创公司从无到有地爆发式增长,使用巨大的杠杆,并获得巨大的超额回报。
产品和媒体杠杆是无许可的
Nivi: 你想谈谈有许可和无许可吗?
Naval: 关于新形式的杠杆,可能最需要记住的有趣事情是它们是无许可的。它们不需要别人的许可就能使用或成功。
对于劳动力杠杆,必须有人决定追随你。对于资本杠杆,必须有人给你钱去投资或转化为产品。
编码、写书、录制播客、发推特、制作YouTube视频,这类事情都是无许可的。你不需要任何人的许可就可以做这些事,这就是为什么它们非常平等。它们是杠杆的绝佳均衡器。
尽管人们可能会抱怨Facebook和YouTube,但他们不会停止使用它们,因为这种无许可的杠杆,让每个人都能成为广播者,实在是太好了。
就像你可以抱怨苹果的iPhone生态系统有点封闭,但每个人都在为它编写应用程序。只要你能为它编写应用程序,你就能通过这样做致富或接触到用户,何乐而不为呢?
机器人军队已经在这里——代码让你告诉它们该做什么
我认为在所有杠杆形式中,现代社会最好的…这有点轻率。这有点被过度使用了。这就是为什么我告诉人们学习编码。因为我们有这样一种想法,认为未来会有这些机器人,它们将做所有事情。
这可能是真的,但我想说机器人革命的大部分已经发生了。机器人已经在这里了,而且机器人的数量比人类多得多,只是出于热量和效率的原因,我们把它们塞进了数据中心。我们把它们放在服务器里。它们在电脑内部。所有的电路,里面都是机器人的思维在做所有的工作。
例如,现在每个优秀的软件开发人员都有一支机器人大军在夜间为他或她工作,在他们睡觉时,在他们编写完代码后,它就在不停地运转。
机器人大军已经在这里了。机器人革命已经发生了。我们大约进行了一半。现在我们只是在增加更多的硬件组件,因为我们对自动驾驶汽车、自动驾驶飞机、自动驾驶船舶以及可能自动驾驶卡车的想法越来越适应。有送货机器人、波士顿动力机器人等等。
但是,例如,为你进行网络搜索的机器人已经在这里了。清理你的视频和音频并将其传输到世界各地的机器人已经在这里了。回答许多客户服务查询的机器人,那些你原本需要打电话找人类处理的事情,已经在这里了。
一支机器人大军已经在这里了。它非常便宜可用。瓶颈只是找出智能和有趣的事情让它们去做。
本质上,你可以指挥这支机器人大军。命令必须用计算机语言发出,用它们能理解的语言。
这些机器人不是很聪明。必须非常精确地告诉它们做什么以及如何做。编码是一种如此强大的超能力,因为现在你可以说机器人大军的语言,你可以告诉它们该做什么。
Nivi: 我认为在这一点上,人们不仅通过代码指挥服务器内的机器人大军,他们实际上还在操纵卡车、其他人的移动。仅仅是在亚马逊上订购一个包裹,你就在操纵许多人和许多机器人的移动来让包裹送到你手中。
人们现在也在做同样的事情来建立业务。有服务器内的机器人大军,还有通过软件被操纵的实际机器人和人员大军。
Product and Media are New Leverage
Create software and media that work for you while you sleep
Naval: The most interesting and the most important form of leverage is this idea of products that have no marginal cost of replication. This is the new form of leverage.
This was only invented in the last few hundred years. It got started with the printing press. It accelerated with broadcast media, and now it’s really blown up with the Internet and with coding.
Now, you can multiply your efforts without having to involve other humans and without needing money from other humans.
This podcast is a form of leverage. Long ago, I would have had to sit in a lecture hall and lecture each of you personally. I would have maybe reached a few hundred people and that would have been that.
Then 40 years ago, 30 years ago, I would have to be lucky to get on TV, which is somebody else’s leverage. They would have distorted the message. They would taken the economics out of it or charged me for it. They would have muddled the message, and I would have been lucky to get that form of leverage.
Today, thanks to the Internet, I can buy a cheap microphone, hook it up to a laptop or an iPad, and there you are all listening.
Product leverage is where the new fortunes are made
This newest form of leverage is where all the new fortunes are made, all the new billionaires. The last generation, fortunes were made by capital. That was the Warren Buffets of the world.
But the new generation’s fortunes are all made through code or media. Joe Rogan making 50 to a 100 million bucks a year from his podcast. You’re going to have a PewDiePie. I don’t know how much money he’s rolling in, but he’s bigger than the news. The Fortnite players. Of course Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Bill Gates and Steve Jobs. That is all code-based leverage.
Combining all three forms of leverage is a magic combination
Now, the beauty is when you combine all of these three. That’s where tech startups really excel, where you take just the minimum, but highest output labor that you can get, which are engineers, and designers, product developers. Then you add in capital. You use that for marketing, advertising, scaling. You add in lots of code and media and podcasts and content to get it all out there.
That is a magic combination, and that’s why you see technology startups explode out of nowhere, use massive leverage and just make huge outsize returns.
Product and media leverage are permissionless
Nivi: Do you want to talk a little bit about permissioned versus permissionless?
Naval: Probably the most interesting thing to keep in mind about the new forms of leverage is they are permissionless. They don’t require somebody else’s permission for you to use them or succeed.
For labor leverage, somebody has to decide to follow you. For capital leverage, somebody has to give you money to invest or to turn into a product.
Coding, writing books, recording podcasts, tweeting, YouTubing, these kinds of things, these are permissionless. You don’t need anyone’s permission to do them, and that’s why they are very egalitarian. They’re great equalizers of leverage.
As much as people may rail on Facebook and YouTube, they’re not going to stop using it because this permissionless leverage, where everyone can be a broadcaster, is just too good.
The same way you can rail upon Apple for having a slightly closed ecosystem in the iPhone, but everyone’s writing apps for it. As long as you can write apps for it, you can get rich or reach users doing that, why not?
The robot army is already here—code lets you tell them what to do
I think of all the forms of leverage, the best one in modern society … This is glib. This is a little overused. This is why I tell people learn to code. It’s that we have this idea that in the future there’s going to be these robots and they’re going to be doing everything.
That may be true, but I would say that the majority of the robot revolution has already happened. The robots are already here and there are way more robots than there are humans, it’s just that we pack them in data centers for heat and efficiency reasons. We put them in servers. They’re inside the computers. All the circuits, it’s robot minds inside that’s doing all the work.
Every great software developer, for example, now has an army of robots working for him at nighttime, while he or she sleeps, after they’ve written the code and it’s just cranking away.
The robot army is already here. The robot revolution has already happened. We’re about halfway through it. We’re just adding in much more of the hardware component these days as we get more comfortable with the idea of autonomous vehicles and autonomous airplanes and autonomous ships and maybe autonomous trucks. There’re delivery bots and Boston Dynamics robots and all that.
But robots who are doing web searching for you, for example, are already here. The ones who are cleaning up your video and audio and transmitting it around the world are already here. The ones who are answering many customer service queries, things that you would have had to call a human for are already here.
An army of robots is already here. It’s very cheaply available. The bottleneck is just figuring out intelligent and interesting things to do to them.
Essentially you can order this army of robots around. The commands have to be issued in a computer language, in a language that they understand.
These robots aren’t very smart. They have to be told very precisely what to do and how to do it. Coding is such a great superpower because now you can speak the language of the robot armies and you can tell them what to do.
Nivi: I think at this point, people are not only commanding the army of robots within servers through code, they’re actually manipulating the movement of trucks, of other people. Just ordering a package on Amazon, you’re manipulating the movement of many people and many robots to get a package delivered to you.
People are doing the same things to build businesses now. There’s the army of robots within servers and then there’s also an army of actual robots and people that are being manipulated through software.