永续刺激机器
永续刺激机器
经济刺激是一场闹剧,这对任何翻开过经济学入门教材或经营过柠檬水摊的人来说都应该显而易见。
这1500亿美元将从何而来?削减其他领域的支出(抵消)、增加税收(等同于减少私营部门支出——比抵消更糟)、向国外借款(提高私营企业的资本价格,或引发通货膨胀,导致抵消)、或增印更多货币(通货膨胀/购买力下降,根据其对通胀预期的影响,可能比抵消更糟)。
数亿人相信这一点,记者和政客们不断公然散布如此荒谬的谎言,这一事实是对大众的令人失望的控诉。
为了向他们致敬,让我们创建永续刺激机器!政府应该向经济中注入越来越多的资金。随着注入更多资金,经济将受到刺激,GDP将增长,政府税收将增加,从而可以注入更多刺激!
事实上,我认为朝鲜和古巴正在推行这样的经济模式。
注:那些认为刺激方案中的资金将从储蓄者转移到支出者的人跳过了经济学102课程。储蓄也会被贷出并支出。储蓄 = 投资
注2:刺激政策可能是经济学中最古老的谬误——破窗谬论,这也与”战争刺激增长”的谬论相同。
Perpetual Stimulation Machine
The economic stimulus is a farce, as should be obvious to anyone who cracked open their Econ 101 textbook or ever ran a lemonade stand.
Where is the $150B going to come from? Reduced spending elsewhere (wash), increased taxes (same as reducing spending from the private sector – worse than a wash), borrowing from abroad (raises the price of capital for private businesses, or causes inflation, resulting in a wash), or printing more money (inflation / reduced purchasing power, which depending on what it does to inflation expectations, can be worse than a wash).
The fact that hundreds of millions of people believe this and that journalists and politicians constantly spout something so egregiously false at face value is a disappointing indictment of the masses.
In their honor, let us create the Perpetual Stimulation Machine! The government should inject more and more money into the economy. As it injects more, the economy will be stimulated, GDP will increase, government tax receipts will rise, and more stimuli can be injected!
In fact, I think just such economies are underway in North Korea and Cuba.
Note: Those who argue that money will be moved in a stimulus package from savers to spenders skipped Econ 102. Savings get loaned out and spent as well. Savings = Investment
Note 2: The stimulus is probably the oldest fallacy in Economics – the Broken Window Fallacy, which is also the same as the “Wars spur Growth” fallacy.