劳动与资本是旧式杠杆

Naval Ravikant 2019-04-15

劳动与资本是旧式杠杆

每个人都在争夺劳动力和资本

Nivi: 我们为什么不稍微谈谈杠杆呢?

这场风暴中的第一条推文是阿基米德的一句名言:“给我一个足够长的杠杆和一个支点,我就能撬动地球。”

下一条推文是:“财富需要杠杆。商业杠杆来自资本、人员和零边际复制成本的产品。”

Naval: 杠杆至关重要。我之所以把阿基米德的名言放在那里是因为…通常我不喜欢在我的Twitter中放入别人的名言。这不会增加任何价值。你可以去查找那些人的名言。但这句话我必须放进去,因为它太基础了。我在很小很小的时候读到它,它给我留下了深刻的印象。

当我们使用跷跷板或杠杆时,我们都知道杠杆是什么。我们理解它在物理上是如何工作的,但我认为我们的大脑并没有很好地进化到能够理解现代社会中有多少杠杆是可能的,以及最新的杠杆形式是什么。

社会高估了劳动杠杆

最古老的杠杆形式是劳动,即为你工作的人。与其我自己搬石头,我可以让10个人搬石头。然后仅仅通过我对石头应该去哪里的指导,就能移动比我自己能做的多得多的石头。每个人都理解这一点,因为我们进化到能够理解劳动形式的杠杆,所以社会高估了劳动作为一种杠杆形式。

这就是为什么当你获得晋升并且有很多人在你手下工作时,你的父母会印象深刻。这就是为什么当你告诉很多天真的人关于你的公司时,他们会说:“那里有多少人工作?“他们会用这个来建立可信度。他们试图衡量你实际拥有的杠杆和影响力。

或者当有人发起一场运动时,他们会说他们有多少人或者军队有多大。我们只是自动假设人越多越好。

你希望使用最少量的劳动来利用其他形式的杠杆

我认为这是你可能使用的最糟糕的杠杆形式。管理他人极其混乱。它需要巨大的领导技能。你离兵变或被暴徒吃掉或撕碎只有一步之遥。

它被激烈地争夺。整个文明都在这场斗争中毁灭了。例如,共产主义、马克思主义,都是关于资本和劳动之间的斗争,资本和劳动。这有点像是一个陷阱。

你真的想远离基于劳动的杠杆。你希望与你合作的人越少越好,这些人将允许你使用其他形式的杠杆,我认为这些杠杆更有趣。

资本在上个世纪一直是主导的杠杆形式

第二种杠杆是资本。这个在我们身上没有那么根深蒂固,因为大笔资金的流动、储蓄和投资于货币市场,这些都是人类在过去几百年到几千年内的发明。它们不是与我们一起从数十万年前进化而来的。

我们对它们的理解稍差一些。它们可能需要更多的智力才能正确使用,而我们使用它们的方式也在不断变化。一百年前的管理技能今天可能仍然适用,但一百年前的股票市场投资技能今天可能就不那么适用了。

资本是一种更棘手的杠杆形式。它更现代。它是人们在上个世纪用来变得极其富有的方式。它可能在上个世纪一直是主导的杠杆形式。

你可以通过最富有的人是谁来看出这一点。他们是银行家、腐败国家印钞的政客,基本上是那些调动大量资金的人。

如果你观察非常大公司的顶层,除了科技公司之外,在许多许多大型老牌公司中,CEO的工作实际上是一项财务工作。他们实际上是金融资产经理。有时,资产经理可以给它一个愉快的面孔,所以你得到了沃伦·巴菲特类型的人。

但深层次上,我认为我们都不喜欢资本作为一种杠杆形式,因为它感觉不公平。这是一种无形的东西,可以积累并代代相传,突然间似乎导致人们拥有巨额资金,而周围没有其他人或必然分享它。

话虽如此,资本是一种强大的杠杆形式。它可以转化为劳动。它可以转化为其他东西。它非常精确,非常分析性。

如果你是一个杰出的投资者,给你10亿美元,你可以获得30%的回报,而其他人只能获得20%的回报,那么你将获得所有资金,并因此获得丰厚的报酬。

它的扩展性非常好。如果你擅长管理资本,你可以比管理越来越多的人更容易地管理越来越多的资本。

你需要特定知识和责任来获得资本

这是一种很好的杠杆形式,但资本的困难之处在于如何获得它?这就是为什么我先谈特定知识和责任。

如果你在某个领域拥有特定知识,并且如果你有责任心并且在该领域有良好的声誉,那么人们会给你资本作为一种杠杆,你可以用它来获得更多资本。

资本也相对容易被理解。我认为许多对资本主义的批评都源于资本的积累。


Labor and Capital Are Old Leverage

Everyone is fighting over labor and capital

Nivi: Why don’t we talk a little bit about leverage?

The first tweet in the storm was a famous quote from Archimedes, which was, “Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I will move the Earth.”

The next tweet was, “Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people and products with no marginal costs of replication.”

Naval: Leverage is critical. The reason I stuck in Archimedes quote in there is… normally I don’t like putting other people’s quotes in my Twitter. That doesn’t add any value. You can go look up those people’s quotes. But this quote I had to put in there because it’s just so fundamental. I read it when I was very, very young and it had a huge impression on me.

We all know what leverage is when we use a seesaw or a lever. We understand how that works physically, but I think what our brains aren’t really well-evolved to comprehend is how much leverage is possible in modern society and what the newest forms of leverage are.

Society overvalues labor leverage

The oldest form of leverage is labor, which is people working for you. Instead of me lifting rocks, I can have 10 people lift rocks. Then just by my guidance on where the rock should go, a lot more rocks get moved than I could do myself. Everybody understands this because we’re evolved to understand the labor form of leverage, so what happens is society overvalues labor as a form of leverage.

This is why your parents are impressed when you get a promotion and you have lots of people working underneath you. This is why when a lot of naive people, when you tell them about your company, they’ll say, “How many people work there?” They’ll use that as a way to establish credibility. They’re trying to measure how much leverage and impact you actually have.

Or when someone starts a movement, they’ll say how many people they have or how big the army is. We just automatically assume that more people is better.

You want the minimum amount of labor that allows you to use the other forms of leverage

I would argue that this is the worst form of leverage that you could possibly use. Managing other people is incredibly messy. It requires tremendous leadership skills. You’re one short hop from a mutiny or getting eaten or torn apart by the mob.

It’s incredibly competed over. Entire civilizations have been destroyed over this fight. For example, communism, Marxism, is all about the battle between capital and labor, das kapital and das labor. It’s kind of a trap.

You really want to stay out of labor-based leverage. You want the minimum amount of people working with you that are going to allow you to use the other forms of leverage, which I would argue are much more interesting.

Capital has been the dominant form of leverage in the last century

The second type of leverage is capital. This one’s a little less hardwired into us because large amounts of money moving around and being saved and being invested in money markets, these are inventions of human beings the in last few hundred to few thousand years. They’re not evolved with us from hundreds of thousands of years.

We understand them a little bit less well. They probably require more intelligence to use correctly, and the ways in which we use them keep changing. Management skills from a hundred years ago might still apply today, but investing in the stock market skills from a hundred years ago probably don’t apply to the same level today.

Capital is a trickier form of leverage to use. It’s more modern. It’s the one that people have used to get fabulously wealthy in the last century. It’s probably been the dominant form of leverage in the last century.

You can see this by who are the richest people. It’s bankers, politicians in corrupt countries who print money, essentially people who move large amounts of money around.

If you look at the top of very large companies, outside of technology companies, in many, many large old companies, the CEO job is really a financial job. They’re really financial asset managers. Sometimes, an asset manager can put a pleasant face on it, so you get a Warren Buffet type.

But deep down, I think we all dislike capital as a form of leverage because it feels unfair. It’s this invisible thing that can be accumulated and passed across generations and suddenly seems to result in people having gargantuan amounts of money with nobody else around them or necessarily sharing in it.

That said, capital is a powerful form of leverage. It can be converted to labor. It can be converted to other things. It’s very surgical, very analytical.

If you are a brilliant investor and give $1 billion and you can make a 30% return with it, whereas anybody else can only make a 20% return, you’re going to get all the money and you’re going to get paid very handsomely for it.

It scales very, very well. If you get good at managing capital, you can manage more and more capital much more easily than you can manage more and more people.

You need specific knowledge and accountability to obtain capital

It is a good form of leverage, but the hard part with capital is how do you obtain it? That’s why I talked about specific knowledge and accountability first.

If you have specific knowledge in a domain and if you’re accountable and you have a good name in that domain, then people are going to give you capital as a form of leverage that you can use to then go get more capital.

Capital also is fairly well understood. I think a lot of the knocks against capitalism come because of the accumulation of capital.