好产品难以变易
好产品难以变易
Naval: 我认为阅读Deutsch在不同学科领域的著作非常有用。即使当他讨论模因和模因理论时——这虽然源于进化论,但直接跨越到了认识论、猜想和批评的领域。
而且它远远超出了他对财富的定义:你能实现的物理转换的集合。这同时考虑了资本和知识,并清楚地表明知识是更大的组成部分。然后这可以引入商业领域并应用于你的日常生活。它既适用于国家财富,也适用于个人财富。
所以有很多部分相互连接在一起。
他说好的解释难以变易。所以当你回顾一个好的解释时,你会说:“嗯,它怎么可能不是这样呢?这是这件事能够运作的唯一方式。”
所有这些不同的部分相互契合并相互制约,以至于现在出现了一些涌现特性、某种复杂性或你未曾预料的结果——某种能巧妙解释一切的说明。
这不仅适用于好的解释。它也适用于产品开发。
好产品难以变易。
去看看iPhone:这个光滑、完美、美丽的珠宝。自初代以来,它的外形设计并没有真正改变太多。一切都围绕着单一屏幕、多点触控、嵌入式电池、让它适合你的口袋、让它在你手中平滑滑动——本质上创造了真正个人化、可放入口袋的计算机的柏拉图式理想。
所以那个产品难以变易。苹果及其竞争对手都试图在16代iPhone中改变它,但他们未能实质性地改变它。他们能够改进组件并提升一些底层能力;但实质上,外形设计难以变易。他们设计出了正确的东西。
有一句名言,我认为来自安托万·德·圣-埃克苏佩里,他说飞机机翼之所以完美,“不是因为没有什么可以添加,而是因为没有什么可以拿走。”
那个飞机机翼难以变易。
当我们找到到达火星的航天器的正确设计时,我敢打赌,无论是在高层面上还是在细节上,在相当长的一段时间内,那个东西都将难以变易,直到出现某种突破性技术。
基本的内燃机设计难以变易,直到我们获得了足够好的电池,然后我们创造了电动汽车。而现在电动汽车难以变易。
事实上,现在一些设计师抱怨说,在现代社会中,产品和物品开始看起来都一样了。这是因为Instagram吗?为什么会这样?
嗯,至少在汽车的情况下,它们看起来都像是经过了风洞设计,因为那是最有效的设计。它们看起来都是流线型和流线型的原因是因为它们都经过了风洞测试,它们试图找到以最小阻力穿过空气的东西。所以它们最终看起来都一样,因为那种设计难以在不损失效率的情况下变易。
好的作家以如此高的密度和相互关联性写作,以至于他们的作品本质上是分形的。你将在你准备好接收的层面上遇到这些知识。
你不必理解全部。这就是学习的本质。你阅读它,你理解了20%。然后你再次阅读,你理解了25%。你同时听Brett Hall的一个播客,现在你理解了28%。现在你去Grok或ChatGPT,问一些问题,深入研究某些部分,现在你理解了31%。
所有知识都是作者与观察者或读者之间的交流,你们都需要达到一定的水平才能吸收它。当你准备好接收不同的部分时,你会接收到不同的部分,但无论你处于什么水平,只要你甚至能够交流和阅读语言,你总会从中获得一些东西。
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Good Products Are Hard to Vary
Naval: I think reading Deutsch across all the different disciplines is very useful. Even when he talks about memes and meme theory—that comes from evolution, but crosses over straight into epistemology, conjecture, and criticism.
And it reaches far beyond his definition of wealth: the set of physical transformations that you can effect. That takes into account both capital and knowledge, and it clearly shows that knowledge is a bigger component. And then that can be brought into business and applied into your everyday life. It can apply to the wealth of nations and it can apply to the wealth of individuals.
So there are a lot of parts that interconnect together.
He says that good explanations are hard to vary. So when you look back on a good explanation, you say, “Well, how could it have been otherwise? This is the only way this thing could have worked.”
All these different parts fit together and constrain each other in such a way that there’s now some emergent property or some complexity or some outcome that you didn’t expect—some explanation that neatly explains everything.
That doesn’t just apply to good explanations. It applies to product development.
Good products are hard to vary.
Go look at the iPhone: this smooth, perfect, beautiful jewel. The form factor hasn’t really changed that much since the original one. It’s all around the single screen, the multi-touch, embedding the battery, making it fit into your pocket, making it smooth and sliding in your hand—essentially creating the Platonic ideal of the truly personal, pocketable computer.
So that product is hard to vary. Both Apple and its competitors have tried to vary it across 16 generations of iPhone and they haven’t been able to materially vary it. They’ve been able to improve the components and improve some of the underlying capabilities; but materially, the form factor is hard to vary. They designed the right thing.
There’s a famous saying, I think from Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, where he says the airplane wing is perfect “not because there’s nothing left to add, but because there’s nothing left to take away.”
That airplane wing is hard to vary.
When we figure out the proper design of the spacecraft to get to Mars, I will bet you that both at a high level and in the details for quite a long time, that thing will be hard to vary until there’s some breakthrough technology.
The basic internal combustion engine design was hard to vary until we got batteries good enough and then we created the electric car. And now the electric car is hard to vary.
In fact, there’s a complaint now among some designers that in modern society, products and objects are starting to look all the same. Is that because of Instagram? Why is that?
Well, at least in the car case, they all look like they’ve been through a wind tunnel design because that is the most efficient design. The reason they all look swoopy and streamlined is because they’re all going through a wind tunnel and they’re trying to find the thing that cuts through the air with minimal resistance. And so they do all end up looking the same because that design is hard to vary without losing efficiency.
Good writers write with such high density and interconnectedness that their works are fractal in nature. You will meet the knowledge at the level at which you are ready to receive it.
You don’t have to understand it all. This is the nature of learning. You read it, you got 20% of it. Then you go back through it, you got 25% of it. You listen to one of Brett Hall’s podcasts alongside it, now you got 28% of it. Now you go to Grok or ChatGPT, you ask it some questions, you dig in on some part, now you got 31% of it.
All knowledge is a communication between the author and the observer or the reader, and you both have to be at a certain level to absorb it. When you’re ready to receive different pieces, you will receive different pieces, but you’ll always get something out of it no matter what level you’re at, as long as you can even just communicate and read the language.
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