推算计算的未来

Naval Ravikant 2009-11-06

推算计算的未来

还记得大型机承担所有计算任务的时代吗?那时工作站都是连接在大型机上的哑终端。终端性能较弱,但更”便携”。

后来每个人都拥有了台式机。台式机成为了你完成大部分计算任务的地方。而你随身携带性能不足的笔记本电脑,需要与台式机同步,或者连接到更大的屏幕、键盘和鼠标才能正常使用。笔记本电脑性能较弱,但比台式机更便携。

现在大多数早期采用者都将笔记本电脑作为主要计算机。他们随身携带性能不足的智能手机,需要定期与笔记本电脑同步。智能手机性能较弱,但确实更便携。

我们会暂时将智能手机连接到笔记本电脑使用。但是,如果从计算历史中推断,笔记本电脑正走向被淘汰的命运。

这意味着苹果公司会没事。谷歌公司会没事。但如果Windows Mobile有任何指示意义的话,微软正陷入深深的困境。


Extrapolating Computing

Remember when mainframes did all of the computing? And workstations were dumb terminals docked to the mainframes? The terminals had less power, but were more “mobile.”

Then everyone got a desktop. And the desktop is where you did most of your computing. And you carried around your underpowered laptop, which had to be synced with your desktop, or docked to a big screen, keyboard and mouse to be usable. The laptop had less power, but it was more mobile than the desktop.

Now most early adopters have a laptop as their main computer. And are carrying around their underpowered smartphone, which has to be synced with their laptop on a regular basis. The smartphone has less power, but well, it’s more mobile.

We’ll dock our smartphones to our laptops for a while. But, if we can extrapolate from the history of computing, the laptop is headed for the dustbin.

Which means that Apple will be ok. Google will be ok. But if Windows Mobile is any indicator, Microsoft is in deep, deep trouble.