Collection: In the Arena
On Elon, iteration and agency
Nivi: Welcome back to the Naval Podcast. I’ve pulled out some tweets from Naval’s Twitter from the last year, and we’re just going to go through them.
Inspiration All the Way Down
Nivi: Here’s actually my first question. You told me that you got an early copy of the Elon book from Eric Jorgenson . Anything surprising in there?
Naval: I’m only about 20% of the way through. It’s really good. It’s just Elon in his own words. And I think what’s striking is just the sense of independence, agency, and urgency that just runs throughout the whole thing.
I don’t think you necessarily learn a step-by-step process by reading these things; you can’t emulate his process. It’s designed for him. It’s designed for SpaceX , it’s designed for Tesla . It’s contextual, but it’s very inspiring just to see how he doesn’t let anything stand in his way, how maniacal he is about questioning everything, and how he just emphasizes speed and iteration and no-nonsense execution.
And so that just makes you want to get up and run and do the same thing with your company. And to me, that’s what the good books do. If I listen to a Steve Jobs speech, it makes me want to be better. If I read Elon on how he executes, it makes me want to execute better, and then I’ll figure out my own way.
The details don’t necessarily map, but more importantly, I think just the inspiration is what drives.
Nivi: That’s pretty interesting because I think people look to you as inspirational—yes, obviously—but also laying out principles that people actually do follow.
Naval: I keep my principles high level and incomplete. Partially because it just sounds better and it’s easier to remember, but also just because it’s more applicable. One of the problems I have with the How to Get Rich content is people ask me highly specific questions on Twitter in 140 or 280 characters, and I just don’t have enough context to respond.
These things require context. That’s why I liked Airchat . That’s why I liked Clubhouse . That’s why I liked spoken format. Back when I used to do Periscopes , when people would ask me a question, then I could ask a follow-up question back to them and they could ask me another question and we could dig through and try to get to the meat of what they were asking.
And then I could say, “Well, given the information that I have, if I were in your shoes, I would do the following thing.” But most of these situations are highly contextual, so it’s hard to copy details from other people. It’s the principles that apply. And so that is why I keep my stuff very high level.
And in fact, I think Eric Jorgenson, the author, has done a good job of trying to break out the little quotable bits and put them in their own standalone sentences. So he is pulling tweets out of Elon’s work.
But I don’t know. I just do my style. Elon does his; he inspires in his own way. Maybe I inspire someone in my own way. I get inspired by him. I get inspired by others—inspiration all the way down.
But when it comes to execution, you’ve got to do it yourself.
Life is Lived in the Arena
Naval: Life is lived in the arena. You only learn by doing. And if you’re not doing, then all the learning you’re picking up is too general and too abstract. Then it truly is Hallmark aphorisms. You don’t know what applies where and when.
And a lot of this kind of general principles and advice is not mathematics. Sometimes you’re using the word rich to mean one thing. Other times you’re using it to mean another thing. Same with the word wealth. Same with the word love or happiness. These are overloaded terms. So this is not mathematics.
These are not precise definitions. You can’t form a playbook out of them that you can just follow like a computer. Instead, you have to understand what context to apply them in. So the right way to learn is to actually go do something, and when you’re doing it, you figure something out about how it should be done.
Then you can go and look at something I tweeted or something you read in Deutsch or something you read in Schopenhauer or something you saw online and say, “Oh, that’s what that guy meant. That’s the general principle he’s talking about. And I know to apply it in situations like this, not mechanically, not 100% of the time, but as a helpful heuristic for when I encounter this situation again.”
You start with reasoning and then you build up your judgment. And then when your judgment is sufficiently refined, it just becomes taste or intuition or gut feel, and that’s what you operate on. But you have to start from the specific.
If you start from the general, and stay at the level of the general—and just read books of principles and aphorisms and almanacs and so on—you’re going to be like that person that went to university: overeducated , but they’re lost. They try to apply things in the wrong places. What Nassim Taleb calls the Intellectual Yet Idiots , IYIs.
Nivi: One of the tweets I was going to bring up is exactly that. From June 3rd :
“Acquiring knowledge is easy, the hard part is knowing what to apply and when.
That’s why all true learning is ‘on the job.’
Life is lived in the arena.”
Naval: I like that tweet.
Actually, I just wanted to tweet, “Life is lived in the arena” and that was it. I wanted to just drop it right there. But I felt like I had to explain just a little bit more because “
The Man in the Arena
” is a famous quote, so I wanted to unpack a little bit from my direction. But this is a realization that I keep having over and over.
If You Want to Learn, Do
Naval: I recently started another company. It’s a very difficult project. In fact, the name of the company is The Impossible Company. It’s called Impossible, Inc. What’s interesting is that it’s driven me into a frenzy of learning. And not necessarily even motivated in a negative way, but I’m more inspired to learn than I have been in a long time.
So I find myself interrogating Grok and ChatGPT a lot more. I find myself reading more books. I find myself listening to more technical podcasts. I find myself brainstorming a lot more. I’m just more mentally active. I’m even willing to meet more companies outside of investing because I’m learning from them.
And just being active makes me want to naturally learn more and not in a way that it’s unfun or causes me to burn out. So I think doing leads to the desire to learn and therefore to learning. And of course there’s the learning from the doing itself. Whereas I think if you’re purely learning for learning’s sake, it gets empty after a little while. The motivation isn’t the same.
We’re biomechanical creatures. My brain works faster when I’m walking around. And you would think, “No, energy conservation—it should work slower,” but it’s not the case. Some of the best brainstorming is when you are walking and talking, not just sitting and talking.
Which is why for a while I tried to hack the walking podcast thing because I really enjoy walking and talking and my brain works better. And so the same way I think doing and learning go hand in hand. And so if you want to learn, do.
In Most Difficult Things in Life, the Solution is Indirect
Naval: Like in most interesting, difficult things in life, the solution is indirect.
That was part of the How to Get Rich tweetstorm , which is, if you want to get rich, you don’t directly just go for the money. I suppose you could like a bankster, but if you’re building something of value and you’re using leverage and you’re taking accountability and you’re applying your specific knowledge, you’re going to make money as a byproduct.
And you’re going to create great products, going to productize yourself and create money as a byproduct. The same way, if you want to be happy, you minimize yourself and you engage in high flow activities or engage in activities that take you out of your own self and you end up with happiness.
By the way, this is true in seduction as well. You don’t seduce a woman by walking up and saying, “I want to sleep with you.” That’s not how it works. Same with status. The overt pursuit of status signals low status, it’s a low-status behavior to chase status because it reveals you as being lower in the status hierarchy in the first place.
It’s not the fact that everything has to be pursued indirectly. Many things are best pursued directly. If I want to drive a car, I get in and I drive the car. If I want to write something, then I just sit down and write something. But the things that are either competitive in nature or they seem elusive to us—part of the reason for that is that those are the remaining things that are best pursued indirectly.
When You Truly Work for Yourself
Nivi: From April 2nd : “When you truly work for yourself, you won’t have hobbies, you won’t have weekends, and you won’t have vacations, but you won’t have work either.”
Naval: This is the paradox of working for yourself, which every entrepreneur or every self-employed person is familiar with, which is that when you start working for yourself, you basically sacrifice this work-life balance thing.
You sacrifice this work-life distinction. There’s no more nine-to-five. There’s no more office. There’s no one who’s telling you what to do. There’s no playbook to follow. At the same time, there’s nothing to turn off. You can’t turn it off. You are the business. You are the product. You are the work. You are the entity, and you care.
If you’re doing something that’s truly yours, you care very deeply, so you can’t turn it off. And that’s the curse of the entrepreneur. But the benefit of the entrepreneur is that if you’re doing it right, if you’re doing it for the right reasons or the right people in the right way, and if you can set aside the stress of not hitting your goals, which is real and hard to set aside, then it doesn’t feel like work.
And that’s when you’re most productive. You are basically only measured on your output. And you’re only held up to the bar that you raised for yourself. So it can be extremely exhilarating and freeing. And this is why I said a long time ago that a taste of freedom can make you unemployable.
And so this is exactly that taste of freedom. It makes you unemployable in the classic sense of nine-to-five and following the playbook and having a boss. But once you have broken out of that, once you’ve walked the tight rope without a net, without a boss, without a job—and by the way, this can even happen in startups in a small team where you’re just very self-motivated. You get what look like huge negatives to the average person that you don’t have weekends, you don’t have vacations, and you don’t have time off, you don’t have work-life balance. But, at the same time, when you are working, it doesn’t feel like work. It’s something that you’re highly motivated to do and that’s the reward.
And net-net, I do think this is a one-way door. I think once people experience working on something that they care about with people that they really like in a way they’re self-motivated, they’re unemployable. They can’t go back to a normal job with a manager and a boss and check-ins and nine-to-five and “Show up this day, this week, sit in this desk, commute at this time.”
Nivi: I think there’s a hidden meaning in the tweet too, which I’m guessing is intentional. It starts off with “When you truly work for yourself,” which I’m guessing most people are going to take that to mean “You’re your own boss.” But the other way that I read it is that you are working for yourself.
So your labor is an expression of who and what you are. It’s self-expression. And that’s not an easy thing to figure out.
Find Your Specific Knowledge Through Action
Naval: I ultimately think that everyone should be figuring out what it is that they uniquely do best—that aligns with who they are fundamentally, and that gives them authenticity, that brings them specific knowledge, that gives them competitive advantage, that makes them irreplaceable. And they should just lean into that. And sometimes you don’t know what that is until you do it.
So this is life lived in the arena. You are not going to know your own specific knowledge until you act and until you act in a variety of difficult situations. And then you’ll either realize, “Oh, I managed to navigate these things that other people would’ve had a hard time with,” or someone else will point out to you. They’ll say, “Hey, your superpower seems to be X.”
I have a friend who has been an entrepreneur a bunch of times. And, what I always notice about him is that he may not necessarily be the most clever or the most technical, and he is very hardworking, that’s why I don’t want to say he isn’t hardworking. He’s actually super hardworking. But what I do notice is he’s the most courageous.
So he just does not care what’s in the way. Nothing gets him down. He’s always laughing or smiling. He’s always moving through it. And this is the kind of guy that a hundred years ago you would’ve said, “Oh, he’s the most courageous. Go charge that machine gun nest.”
He would’ve been good for that. But in an entrepreneurship context, he’s the one who can keep beating his head against the sales wall and just calling hundreds of people until finally one person says yes. So he’ll call 400 people and get 399 nos. And he’s fine with one “Yes.” And that’s enough.
Then he can start iterating and learning from there. So that’s his specific knowledge. It is knowledge. It’s a capability that he knows that he’s okay with it. There’s an outcome on the other side that he’s willing to go for and that’s a superpower. Now, maybe if he can develop that a little further or combine it with something else, or maybe even just apply it where it’s needed, that makes him somewhat irreplaceable.
And so you find your specific knowledge through action—by doing—and when you are working for yourself, you’ll also naturally tend to pick things and do things in a way that aligns with who you are and what your specific knowledge is.
You Have to Enjoy It a Lot
Naval: For example, if you look at marketing, marketing is an open problem. People try to solve marketing in different ways. Some people will create videos, some people will write or tweet. Some people will literally stand outside with a sandwich board. Some people will go make a whole bunch of friends and just throw parties and spread by word of mouth.
Now, it may be the case that for your business, one of those is much better than others, but the most important thing is picking a business that is congruent with whichever one you like to do. So for example, I have a lot of friends approach me and say, “Hey, let’s start a podcast together.” And I’m like, “Do you genuinely enjoy talking? Do you genuinely enjoy talking a lot?”
Because if you don’t, you’re not going to enjoy the process of podcasting. You’re not going to be the best at it. And they’re just trying to market. And so they start a podcast, they do two or three episodes, and then eventually they drop off.
And they drop off because, first, they don’t enjoy podcasting. I don’t mean enjoy a little bit, you have to enjoy it a lot. If you’re going to be the top at it, you have to be almost psychopathic level at which you enjoy the thing. And so they’ll record a few episodes and then their readers or their listeners will pick up on, “Actually this person is just asking a bunch of questions, kind of flat-faced and doesn’t seem to really enjoy it, and is doing the podcast equivalent of looking at their watch.”
Whereas someone like
Joe Rogan
—he’s so immersed—he’s so into talking to all these weird people that he has on his podcast that the guy would be doing it even if he had no audience, and he was doing it when he had no audience, when he was on Ustream with just him and live streaming late at night on one random website.
So it’s no coincidence he’s the top podcaster. So when you’re marketing, you want to lean into your specific knowledge and into yourself. If you enjoy talking, then try podcasting. Maybe you enjoy talking in a more conversational tone, in which case you try a live network, like Twitter Spaces .
Maybe you enjoy writing. If you like long-form writing, Substack . If you like short-form writing, X. If you like really long-form writing, then maybe a bunch of blog posts that turn into a book. If you enjoy making videos, then maybe you use one of the latest AI models and you make some video and you overlay onto it.
But you have to do what is very natural to you. And part of the trick is picking a business where the thing that is natural to you lines up nicely or picking a role within that business or picking a co-founder in that business. It is a fit problem. It is a matching problem. And the good news is in the modern world, there are unlimited opportunities.
There are unlimited people, there are unlimited venues, there are unlimited forms of media. There’s just an unlimited set of things to choose from. So how are you going to find the thing that you’re really good at? You’re going to try everything and you’re going to try everything because you’re going to do. You’re going to be in the arena. You’re going to be trying to tackle and solve problems.
So the first time you do it, you might do a whole bunch of things you don’t enjoy doing, and you may not do them well, but eventually you’ll hone down on the thing that you really like to do and then you hopefully find that fit.
Pause, Reflect, See How Well It Did
Naval: We talked about in the past how “Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.” And Akira made a song out of it. Akira the Don , God bless him. And I think that’s absolutely true. You want to be the best in the world at what you do, but keep redefining what you do until that’s true. The only way that redefining is going to work is through the process of iteration, through doing. So, you need that carrot, you need that flag.
You need that reward at the end to pull you forward into doing, and you need to iterate. And iterate does not mean repetition. Iterate is not mechanical. It’s not 10,000 hours, it’s 10,000 iterations . It’s not time spent. It’s learning loops.
And what iteration means is you do something and then you stop and you pause and you reflect. You see how well that worked or did not work. Then you change it. Then you try something else. Then you pause, reflect, see how well it did. Then you change it and you try something else. And that’s the process of iteration, and that’s the process of learning. And all learning systems work this way.
So evolution is iteration where there’s mutation, there’s replication, and then there’s selection. You cut out the stuff that didn’t work. This is true in technology and invention where you’ll innovate, you’ll create a new technology and then you’ll try to scale it and either survive in the marketplace or it’ll get cut out.
This is true as David Deutsch talks about in the search for good explanations. You make a conjecture, that conjecture is subject to criticism, and then the stuff that doesn’t work is weeded out. And this is the true scientific method.
It’s all about finding what is natural for yourself and doing it by living life in the arena, high agency, process of iteration until you figure it out and then you are the best in the world at “it,” and “it” is just being yourself.
Blame Yourself for Everything, and Preserve Your Agency
Nivi: Let’s talk about one more tweet which I liked when I first saw it, or I might have retweeted it. I think people retweet things when they see something that they haven’t figured out how to say yet, but they knew in their head, but it’s just implicit—it hadn’t been made explicit.
I think that’s when people are like, “I need to retweet this.”
So this one was January 17 : “Blame yourself for everything, and preserve your agency.”
From my end it’s like: Take responsibility for everything, and in the process of taking responsibility for something, you create and preserve the agency to go solve that problem. If you’re not responsible for the problem, there’s no way for you to fix the problem.
Naval: Just to address your point of how it was something you already knew, but phrased in a way that you liked. Emerson did this all the time. He would phrase things in a beautiful way and you would say, “Oh, that’s exactly what I was thinking and feeling, but I didn’t know how to articulate it.”
And the way he put it was he said, “In every work of genius, we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty.” And I just love that line. It’s what I try to do with Twitter, which is I try to say something true, but in an interesting way.
And not only is this a true and interesting way to say it, but also it has to be something that really has emotional heft behind it. It has to have struck me recently and been important to me. Otherwise, I’m just faking it. I don’t sit around trying to think up tweets to write. It’s more that something happens to me, something affects me emotionally, and then I synthesize it in a certain way.
I test it. I’m like, “Is this true?” And if I feel like it’s true, or mostly true or true in the context that I care about, and if I can say it in some way that’ll help me stick in my mind, then I just send it out there. And it’s nothing new for the people who get it.
If it’s not said in an interesting way, then it’s a cliché, or if they’ve heard it too much, it’s a cliché. But if it’s said in an interesting way, then it may remind them of something that was important, or it might convert their specific knowledge, or might be a hook for converting their specific knowledge into more general knowledge in their own minds.
So I find that process useful for myself and hopefully others do too. Now, for the specific tweet, I just noticed this tendency where people are very cynical and they’ll say, “All the wealth is stolen,” for example, by banksters and the like, or crony capitalists or what have you, or just outright thieves or oligarchs.
“You can’t rise up in this world if you’re X.”
“You can’t rise up in this world if you’re a poor kid.”
“You can’t rise up in this world if you are from this race or ethnicity, if you were born in that country, or if you are lame or crippled or blind,” or what have you.
The problem with this is that yes, there are real hindrances in the world. It is not a level playing field, and fair is something that only exists in a child’s imagination and cannot be pinned down in any real way. But the world is not entirely luck. In fact, you know that because in your own life there are things that you have done that have led to good outcomes and you know that if you had not done that thing, it would not have led to that good outcome.
So you can absolutely move the needle, and it’s not all luck. And especially the longer the timeframe you’re talking about, the more intense the activity, the more iteration you take and the more thinking and choice you apply into it, the less luck matters. It recedes into the distance.
To give you a simple example, which most people won’t love because they’re not in Silicon Valley, but every brilliant person I met in Silicon Valley 20 years ago, every single one, the young brilliant ones, every single one is successful. Every single one. I cannot think of an exception. I should have gone back and just indexed them all based on their brilliance. By the way, that’s what Y Combinator does at scale, right? What a great mechanism.
So it works. If people stick at it for 20 years, it works. Now you might say, “Easy for you to say, man, that’s for the people in Silicon Valley.”
No one was born here. They all moved here. They moved here because they wanted to be where the other smart kids were and because they wanted to be high agency. So agency does work, but if you’re keeping track of the time period, you’re going to be disappointed.
You’ll give up too soon. So you need a higher motivator. That’s why Elon goes to Mars, and that’s why Sam wants to invent AGI. And that’s why Steve Jobs wanted to build, 50 years ago, in the eighties he was talking about building a computer that would fit in a book.
He was talking about the iPad. So it’s these very long visions that sustain you over the long periods of time to actually build the thing you want to build and get to where you want to get.
So a cynical belief is self-fulfilling. A pessimistic belief is like you’re driving the motorcycle, but you’re looking at the brick wall that you’re supposed to turn away from. You will turn into the brick wall without even realizing it.
So you have to preserve your agency. You have to preserve your belief that you can change things. You’re born with agency. Children are high-agency. They go get what they want. If they want something, they see it, they go get it. You have to preserve your agency. You have to preserve your belief that you can change things.
It Is Impossible to Fool Mother Nature
Naval: You have to take responsibility for everything bad that happens to you—and this is a mindset.
Maybe it’s a little fake, but it’s very self-serving. And in fact, if you can go the extra mile and just attribute everything good that happens to you to luck, that might be helpful too. But at some level, truth is very important. You don’t want to fake it.
From what I have observed, the truth of the matter is: People who work very hard and apply themselves and don’t give up and take responsibility for the outcomes on a long enough time scale, end up succeeding in whatever they’re focused on. And every success case knows this.
Richard Feynman used to say that he wasn’t a genius. He was just a boy who applied himself and worked really hard. Yeah, he was very smart, obviously. But that was necessary, but not sufficient. We all know the trope of the smart, lazy guy.
And I like to harass all of my friends—including Nivi—that one of the problems I notice with these guys is you’re just operating way below potential. Your potential is so much higher than where you are. You have to apply some of that into kinetic.
And ironically that will raise your potential because we’re not static creatures.
We’re dynamic creatures. And you will learn more. You will learn by doing. So just stop making excuses and get in the ring.
Nivi: You also like Schopenhauer . What have you learned from Schopenhauer, or is there anything surprising in his work?
Naval: Schopenhauer is not for everybody and there are many different Schopenhauers. He wrote quite a bit, and you could read his more obscure philosophical texts, like The World as Will and Idea , where he was writing for other philosophers. Or you could read his more practical stuff like On the Vanity of Existence .
He was one of the few people in history who wrote unflinchingly. He wrote what he believed to be true. He wasn’t always correct, but he never lied to you—and that comes across. He thought about things very deeply.
He didn’t care that much what people thought of him. All he knew was, “What I am writing down I know to be true.”
He also didn’t put on any airs. He didn’t use fancy language; he didn’t try to impress you.
People call him a pessimist. I don’t think that’s entirely fair. I think his worldview could be interpreted as pessimistic, but I just read him when I want to read a harsh dose of truth.
What Schopenhauer did uniquely for me is that he gave me complete permission to be me. He just did not care at all what the masses thought, and his disdain for common thinking comes out.
Now, I don’t necessarily share that—I’m a little bit more of an egalitarian than he was. But he really gives you permission to be yourself. So if you’re good at something, don’t be shy about it. Accept that you’re good at something.
And that was hard for me because we all want to get along. If you want to get along in a group, you don’t want to stand out too much. It’s the old line: The tall poppy gets cut.
But if you’re going to do anything exceptional, you do have to bet on yourself in some way. And if you’re exceptional at something, that does require you acknowledging that you’re exceptional at it—or at least trying to be—and not worrying about what other people think.
Now, you don’t want to be delusional either. Anyone who has been in the investing business is constantly hit by people who say, “I’m so great at something,” and they’re a little delusional. No, you don’t get to say you’re exceptional at something. Other people get to say you’re exceptional at something, and your mom doesn’t count.
Feedback from other people is usually fake. Awards are fake. Critics are fake. Kudos from your friends and family are fake. They might try to be genuine, but it’s lost in such a sea of fakeness that you’re not going to get real feedback.
Real feedback comes from free markets and nature . Physics is harsh: either your product worked, or it didn’t. Free markets are harsh: either people buy it, or they don’t. But feedback from other people is fake.
You can’t get good feedback from groups because groups are just trying to get along. Individuals search for truth, groups search for consensus . A group that doesn’t get along decoheres. It falls apart. And the larger the group, the less good feedback you’re going to get from it.
You don’t want to necessarily rely on feedback from your mom or your friends or your family, or even from award ceremonies and award systems.
If you’re optimizing your company to end up on the cover of a magazine, or to win an industry award, you’re failing.
You need customers. That’s your real feedback. You need feedback from nature.
Did your rocket launch?
Did your drone fly?
Did your 3D printer print the object within the tolerances that it was supposed to, in the time it was supposed to, in the cost budget that it was supposed to?
It’s very easy to fool yourself. It’s very easy to be fooled by others.
It is impossible to fool Mother Nature.
The Best Authors Respect the Reader’s Time
Nivi: Unlike Schopenhauer, you are an industrial philosopher. Like an industrial designer, your philosophy is designed for the masses. People suggest you read the great books—Aristotle and Wittgenstein and all the supposedly great philosophers.
I’ve read almost all that stuff, and I’ve gotten very little value from it. Where I have gotten value is the philosophizing of people on Twitter, like you. Anybody who wants to read philosophy, I would just tell them to skip it and go read David Deutsch.
Naval: You’re not wrong. I can’t stand any of the philosophers you talked about. I don’t like Plato either.
Every other piece of philosophy I’ve picked up and put down relatively quickly because they’re just making very obscure arguments over minutiae and trying to come up with all-encompassing theories of the world. Even Schopenhauer falls into that trap. When he tries to talk to other philosophers, he’s at his worst.
When I like him is in his shorter essays. That’s where he almost writes like he’s on Twitter. He would have dominated Twitter. He has high density of ideas—very well thought through; good, minimal examples and analogies. You can pick it up, read one paragraph, and you’re thinking for the next hour. I think I’m a better writer, a better thinker, and a better judge of people and character thanks to what I read from him.
Now, he’s writing from the early part of the 19th century. Whenever he wanders into topics that are scientific or medical or political, he’s obviously off base—that stuff doesn’t apply anymore. But when he’s writing about human nature, that is timeless.
When it comes to anything about human nature, I say go read the Lindy books—the older books, the ones that have survived the test of time. But if you want to develop specific knowledge, get paid for it, do something useful, then you want to stay on the bleeding edge. That knowledge is going to be more timely and obsolete more quickly.
Those two make sense. What doesn’t make sense to me is just reading stuff that’s not Lindy, or that’s not about human nature, but is old. I also shy away from stuff that’s low density in the learnings, like history books.
I like The Lessons of History by Will Durant because it’s a summarization of The Story of Civilization , which was his large 12-volume series. But I’m not going to go read the 12-volume series. I’ve read plenty of history. I know he’s referring to these kinds of things, so I’m not just taking his word for it on high-level concept.
But at the same time, at this point in my life, I want to read high-density works. You can call it the TikTok Disease or the Twitter generation, but it’s also just being respectful of our time. We already have a lot of data. We have some knowledge. Now we want wisdom. Now we want the generalized principles that we can attach to all of the other information we already have in our minds.
We do want to read high-density work, but I would argue that Schopenhauer is very high-density work.
All my favorite authors are very high density. Deutsch is extremely high density. Borges is very high density. Ted Chiang is very high density. The old Neal Stephenson was very high density (then he just got high volume, high density, high everything).
But the best authors respect the reader’s time, and Schopenhauer is very much in that vein.
Most Books Should Be Skimmed, A Few Should Be Devoured
Nivi: For the state of the art on the philosophy of knowledge, which people call epistemology , you can basically skip everything and jump straight to David Deutsch.
Naval: I think that’s right. If you just want to know epistemology, read David Deutsch—full stop.
That said, for some people it helps to know the history, the counterarguments, where he’s coming from.
The existing theories of knowledge—like the justified true belief theory or the inductive theory of knowledge—these are so deeply embedded into us, both by school learning, but also by everyday experience.
Induction seems like it should work: You watch the sunrise every day, the sun is going to rise tomorrow. That just seems like common sense.
So many people believe in that, that if you just read Deutsch, you would see him shooting down these things, but you yourself would not have those things on solid footing. So you might imagine some counterexample exists.
When I first read Deutsch a long time ago I didn’t quite get it. I treated it just like any other book that any other physicist had written. So I would read Paul Davies and Carlo Rovelli and Deutsch, and I would treat them with the same level of contemplation, time, and respect.
It turned out I was wrong.
It turned out that Deutsch was actually operating at a much deeper level. He had a lot of different theories that coherently hung together, and they create a world philosophy where all the pieces reinforce each other.
It might help to read others and not just skip to Deutsch, but I would definitely start with Deutsch. Then, if you’re not sure about it, I would read some of the others and then come back to Deutsch and try again, and then you’ll see how he addresses those issues.
Deutsch himself would refer you to Popper . He would say, “Oh, I’m just repeating Popper.”
Not quite true. I find Popper much less approachable, much harder to read, much less clear of a writer. Although I think here both Deutsch and Brett Hall would disagree with me—they find Popper very lucid; I find him very difficult to read.
For whatever reason, I find Deutsch easier to read, maybe because Popper spent a lot more time elucidating core points. Popper was writing for philosophers. Deutsch is not writing for philosophers. Deutsch is not even writing for scientists. Deutsch is not writing for you. I get the feeling Deutsch is writing for himself. He is just elucidating his own thoughts and how they all connect together.
I also don’t think you’re going to get maximal value out of Deutsch just reading the epistemology, although that is absolutely where everybody should start. That’s the first three chapters of The Beginning of Infinity .
Ironically, in
The Beginning of Infinity , the first few chapters and the last few chapters are the easiest and the most accessible. The middle is a slog because that goes into quantum computation, quantum physics, evolution, et cetera.
That’s where I think people struggle because it does require—not necessarily a mathematical or scientific background but at least a comfort level with scientific concepts and principles. And he’s making a strong argument for the multiverse , which most people don’t have a dog in that fight. They haven’t thought that far ahead. They’re not wedded to the observer collapse theory of quantum mechanics because they don’t really care about quantum mechanics. It doesn’t impact their everyday life.
What I got out of reading all of Deutsch was I got to see how his theory all hangs together. Every piece touches upon and relies upon another piece.
He actually came up with the theory of quantum computation and extended the Church–Turing conjecture into the
Church–Turing–
Deutsch conjecture when he was trying to come up with a way to falsify his theory of the multiverse—which was a quantum physics theory. And to do that, he had to invent quantum computation, because to invent the experiment for how to falsify the multiverse theory he had to—in his mind—imagine an AGI , get inside the AGI’s brain and say, “If that AGI is observing something, does it collapse?”
“But now I need to be inside the brain.”
“Well, how do I get inside the brain of a quantum AGI? How do you even create a quantum AGI? We don’t have quantum computers!”
“Okay, we need quantum computers.”
So he came up with the theory of quantum computation, and that launched the field of quantum computing.
That’s an example of how quantum physics and quantum computing are inextricably linked.
Good Products Are Hard to Vary
Naval: I think reading Deutsch across all the different disciplines is very useful. Even when he talks about memes and meme theory—that comes from evolution, but crosses over straight into epistemology, conjecture, and criticism.
And it reaches far beyond his definition of wealth: the set of physical transformations that you can effect. That takes into account both capital and knowledge, and it clearly shows that knowledge is a bigger component. And then that can be brought into business and applied into your everyday life. It can apply to the wealth of nations and it can apply to the wealth of individuals.
So there are a lot of parts that interconnect together.
He says that good explanations are hard to vary . So when you look back on a good explanation, you say, “Well, how could it have been otherwise? This is the only way this thing could have worked.”
All these different parts fit together and constrain each other in such a way that there’s now some emergent property or some complexity or some outcome that you didn’t expect—some explanation that neatly explains everything.
That doesn’t just apply to good explanations. It applies to product development.
Good products are hard to vary .
Go look at the iPhone: this smooth, perfect, beautiful jewel. The form factor hasn’t really changed that much since the original one. It’s all around the single screen, the multi-touch, embedding the battery, making it fit into your pocket, making it smooth and sliding in your hand—essentially creating the Platonic ideal of the truly personal, pocketable computer.
So that product is hard to vary. Both Apple and its competitors have tried to vary it across 16 generations of iPhone and they haven’t been able to materially vary it . They’ve been able to improve the components and improve some of the underlying capabilities; but materially, the form factor is hard to vary. They designed the right thing.
There’s a famous saying, I think from Antoine de Saint-Exupéry , where he says the airplane wing is perfect “ not because there’s nothing left to add, but because there’s nothing left to take away. “
That airplane wing is hard to vary.
When we figure out the proper design of the spacecraft to get to Mars, I will bet you that both at a high level and in the details for quite a long time, that thing will be hard to vary until there’s some breakthrough technology.
The basic internal combustion engine design was hard to vary until we got batteries good enough and then we created the electric car. And now the electric car is hard to vary.
In fact, there’s a complaint now among some designers that in modern society, products and objects are starting to look all the same. Is that because of Instagram? Why is that?
Well, at least in the car case, they all look like they’ve been through a wind tunnel design because that is the most efficient design. The reason they all look swoopy and streamlined is because they’re all going through a wind tunnel and they’re trying to find the thing that cuts through the air with minimal resistance. And so they do all end up looking the same because that design is hard to vary without losing efficiency.
Good writers write with such high density and interconnectedness that their works are fractal in nature. You will meet the knowledge at the level at which you are ready to receive it.
You don’t have to understand it all. This is the nature of learning. You read it, you got 20% of it. Then you go back through it, you got 25% of it. You listen to one of Brett Hall’s podcasts alongside it, now you got 28% of it. Now you go to Grok or ChatGPT, you ask it some questions, you dig in on some part, now you got 31% of it.
All knowledge is a communication between the author and the observer or the reader, and you both have to be at a certain level to absorb it. When you’re ready to receive different pieces, you will receive different pieces, but you’ll always get something out of it no matter what level you’re at, as long as you can even just communicate and read the language.
Find the Simplest Thing That Works
Nivi: We’ve all seen the pictures of the Raptor engine for the SpaceX rockets , and if you look at the various iterations, they go from easy-to-vary to hard-to-vary. Because the most recent version just doesn’t have that many parts that you can fool around with.
The earlier versions have a million different parts where you could change the thickness of it, the width of it, the material, and so on. The current version barely has any parts left for you to do anything with.
Naval: There’s a theory in complexity theory that whenever you find a complex system working in nature, it’s usually the output of a very simple system or thing that was iterated over and over.
We’re seeing this lately in AI research—you’re just taking very simple algorithms and dumping more and more data into them. They keep getting smarter.
What doesn’t work as well is the reverse. When you design a very complex system and then you try to make a functioning large system out of that, it just falls apart. There’s too much complexity in it. So a lot of product design is iterating on your own designs until you find the simple thing that works. And often you’ve added stuff around it that you don’t need, and then you have to go back and extract the simplicity back out of the noise.
You can see this in personal computing where macOS is still quite a bit harder to use than iOS. iOS is closer to the Platonic ideal of an operating system. Although an LLM-based operating system might be even closer—speaking in natural language.
Eventually, you have to remove things to get them to scale, and the Raptor engine is an example of that. As you figure out what works, then you realize what’s unnecessary and you can remove parts.
And this is one of Musk’s great driving principles where he basically says: Before you optimize a system, that’s among the last things that you do. Before you start trying to figure out how to make something more efficient, the first thing you do is you question the requirements.
You’re like, “Why does the requirement even exist?”
One of the Elon methods in Jorgenson’s new book is you first go and you track down the requirement. And not which department came up with the requirement; the requirement has to come from an individual.
Who’s the individual who said, “This is what I want.”
You go back and say, “Do you really need this?”
You eliminate the requirement. And then once you’ve eliminated the requirements that are unnecessary, then you have a smaller number of requirements. Now you have parts, and you try to get rid of as many parts as you can to fulfill the requirements that are absolutely necessary.
And then after that, maybe then you start thinking about optimization, and now you’re trying to figure out how can I manufacture this part and fit it into the right place most efficiently. And then finally, you might get into cost efficiencies and economies of scale and those sorts of things.
The most critical person to take a great product from zero to one is the single person— usually the founder —who can hold the entire problem in their head and make the trade-offs, and understand why each component is where it is.
And they don’t necessarily need to be the person designing each component, or manufacturing or knowing all the ins and outs, but they do need to be able to understand: Why is this piece here? And if Part A gets removed, then what happens to Parts B, C, D, E and their requirements and considerations?
It’s that holistic view of the whole product.
You’ll see this in the Raptor engine design. The example that Elon gives that I thought was a good one—he was trying to get these fiberglass mats on top of the Tesla batteries produced more efficiently.
So he went to the line where it was taking too long, put his sleeping bag down, and just stayed at the line. And they tried to optimize the robot that was gluing the fiberglass mats to the batteries. They were trying to attach them more efficiently or speed up that line. And they did—they managed to improve it a bit, but it was still frustratingly slow.
And finally he said, “Why is this requirement here? Why are we putting fiberglass mats on top of the batteries?”
The battery guy said, “It’s actually because of noise reduction, so you’ve got to go talk to the noise and vibration team.”
So he goes to the noise and vibration team.
He’s like, “Why do we have these mats here? What is the noise and vibration issue?”
And they’re like, “No, no—there’s no noise and vibration issue. They’re there because of heat, if the battery catches fire.”
And then he goes back to the battery team like, “Do we need this?”
And they’re like, “No. There’s not a fire issue here. It’s not a heat protection issue. That’s obsolete. It’s a noise and vibration issue.”
They had each been doing things the way they were trained to do—in the way things had been done. They tested it for safety, and they tested it by putting microphones on there and tracking the noise, and they decided they didn’t need it, and so they eliminated the part.
This happens a lot with very complex systems and complex designs.
It’s funny—everybody says “I’m a generalist,” which is their way of copping out on being a specialist. But really what you want to be is a polymath, which is a generalist who can pick up every specialty, at least to the 80/20 level, so they can make smart trade-offs.
Nivi: The way that I suggest people gain that polymath capability—being a generalist that can pick up any specialty—is if you are going to study something, if you are going to go to school, study the theories that have the most reach.
Naval: I would summarize that further and just say study physics.
Once you study physics, you’re studying how reality works . And if you have a great background in physics, you can pick up electrical engineering. You can pick up computer science. You can pick up material science. You can pick up statistics and probability. You can pick up mathematics because it’s part of it—it’s applied.
The best people that I’ve met in almost any field have a physics background. If you don’t have a physics background, don’t cry. I have a failed physics background. You can still get there the other ways, but physics trains you to interact with reality, and it is so unforgiving that it beats all the nice falsities out of you.
Whereas if you’re somewhere in social science, you can have all kinds of cuckoo beliefs. Even if you pick up some of the abstruse mathematics they use in social sciences, you may have 10% real knowledge, but 90% false knowledge.
The good news about physics is you can learn pretty basic physics. You don’t have to go all the way deep into quarks and quantum physics and so on. You can just go with basic balls rolling down a slope, and it’s actually a good backgrounder.
But I think any of the STEM disciplines are worth studying. Now if you don’t have the choice of what to study and you’re already past that, just team up with people. Actually, the best people don’t necessarily even just study physics. They’re tinkerers , they’re builders, they’re building things. The tinkerers are always at the edge of knowledge because they’re always using the latest tools and the latest parts to build the cool things.
So it’s the guy building the racing drone before drones are a military thing, or the guy building the fighting robots before robots are a military thing, or the person putting together the personal computer because they want the computer in their home and they’re not satisfied going to school and using the computer there. These are the people who understand things the best, and they’re advancing knowledge the fastest.
合集:在竞技场中
关于 Elon、迭代与行动力
Nivi: 欢迎回到 Naval 播客。我从 Naval 过去一年的推文中挑选了一些,我们逐条过一遍。
灵感一路到底
Nivi: 这其实是我第一个问题。你跟我说你拿到了 Eric Jorgenson 写的 Elon 传记的提前版。里面有什么令人意外的吗?
Naval: 我才读了大概 20%。写得非常好。就是 Elon 自己的话。我觉得最引人注目的是贯穿全书的那种独立感、行动力和紧迫感。
我觉得读这些东西你未必能学到一套循序渐进的方法;你没法复制他的流程。那是为他量身定做的。是为 SpaceX 设计的,是为 Tesla 设计的。它是因情境而异的,但确实非常鼓舞人心——看他如何不让任何东西阻挡自己,如何疯狂地质疑一切,如何一味强调速度、迭代和毫不废话的执行力。
看完你就想站起来跑回自己公司做同样的事。对我来说,好书就是这样。如果我听一段 Steve Jobs 的演讲,我会想变得更好。如果我读到 Elon 如何执行,我会想执行得更好,然后我会找到自己的方式。
细节未必能对应上,但更重要的是,我觉得驱动一切的就是那份灵感。
Nivi: 这挺有意思的,因为我觉得人们把你视为灵感来源——当然没错——但也认为你提出了人们真正在遵循的原则。
Naval: 我的原则保持在高层面、不完整。部分原因是这样说起来更好听、更容易记住,但也是因为这样更适用。我对”如何致富”内容的一个困扰是,人们在 Twitter 上用 140 或 280 个字符问我非常具体的问题,而我根本缺乏足够的背景来回答。
这些东西需要语境。这就是我喜欢 Airchat 的原因。这也是我喜欢 Clubhouse 的原因。这也是我喜欢口语形式的原因。以前我做 Periscope 的时候,有人问我一个问题,我可以追问回去,他们再问另一个问题,我们可以一层层挖掘,试着触及他们真正想问的核心。
然后我可以说,“好吧,根据我所了解的信息,如果我处在你的位置,我会做以下事情。“但大多数情况都高度依赖语境,所以很难复制别人的细节。适用的是原则。所以这就是为什么我把自己的东西保持在高层面。
事实上,我觉得作者 Eric Jorgenson 做得不错,他试图把那些可引用的小片段单独提取出来,做成独立的句子。他在从 Elon 的作品中抽取推文。
但我也不知道。我就是按自己的风格来。Elon 有他的方式;他用他自己的方式激励人。也许我用自己的方式激励了某些人。我被他的方式激励,我被其他人的方式激励——灵感一路到底。
但说到执行,你得自己来。
人生在竞技场中度过
Naval: 人生在竞技场中度过。你只有通过做事才能学到东西。如果你不在做,那你所积累的一切学习都太笼统、太抽象了。那就真的成了贺卡式格言。你不知道什么适用于什么场合、什么时候。
而且这类通用原则和建议不是数学。有时候你用”富有”这个词指一件事,另一些时候用它指另一件事。“财富”也是,“爱”和”幸福”也是。这些都是多义术语。所以这不是数学。
这些不是精确的定义。你没法从中编出一套可以像计算机一样照搬的操作手册。相反,你得理解在什么语境下应用它们。所以正确的学习方式是实际去做一件事,在做的时候,你弄明白该怎么做。
然后你可以去看看我发过的推文,或者你读过的 Deutsch 的东西,或者 Schopenhauer 的东西,或者你在网上看到的东西,然后说,“哦,原来那个人是这个意思。那就是他在说的通用原则。而且我知道在这种情况下该应用它——不是机械地、不是百分之百地,而是作为再次遇到类似情况时的一个有用经验法则。”
你从推理开始,然后逐步建立起判断力。当你的判断力足够精炼时,它就变成了品味、直觉或第六感,那就是你赖以行动的东西。但你必须从具体开始。
如果你从一般开始,又停留在一般的层面——只是读原则书、格言书、年鉴之类的——你就会像那个上了大学的人:过度教育,却迷失了。他们在错误的场合应用这些东西。就是 Nassim Taleb 所说的”有知却愚蠢的知识分子”,IYI。
Nivi: 我本来要提的一条推文正是这个。来自 6月3日:
“获取知识很容易,难的是知道该在什么时候应用什么。
这就是为什么一切真正的学习都是’在实践中’完成的。
人生在竞技场中度过。”
Naval: 我喜欢那条推文。
其实我只想发一句”人生在竞技场中度过”,就完了。我想就这样甩出去。但我觉得还是得多解释一点,因为”竞技场中的人”是一句名言,所以我想从我的角度稍微展开一下。但这是一个我反复体会到的认识。
如果想学,就去做
Naval: 我最近又创办了一家公司。这是一个非常困难的项目。事实上,公司的名字就叫”不可能公司”。叫 Impossible, Inc.。有趣的是,它把我推入了一种疯狂学习的状态。甚至不一定是被负面动机驱动的,而是我比很长一段时间以来都更有学习的动力。
所以我发现自己更频繁地追问 Grok 和 ChatGPT。我发现自己读更多的书。我发现自己听更多的技术播客。我发现自己更多地头脑风暴。我的精神活动更活跃了。我甚至愿意在投资之外去见更多公司,因为我在从中学到东西。
仅仅保持活跃就让我自然而然地想要学更多,而且不是那种令人不快或导致倦怠的方式。所以我认为做→→ 学习的渴望 →→ 学习。当然还有从做事本身中获得的学习。而我觉得如果你纯粹为学习而学习,过一阵子就会变得空洞。动力是不一样的。
我们是生物力学造物。我走路时大脑转得更快。你会想,“不对,能量守恒——应该转得更慢才对,“但事实并非如此。最好的头脑风暴往往发生在你边走边聊的时候,而不是坐着聊的时候。
这就是为什么有一阵子我试图搞出步行播客这个东西,因为我真的很享受边走边聊,而且大脑运作得更好。所以同样的道理,做和学是携手并进的。所以如果你想学,就去做。
人生中大多数难题,解法都是间接的
Naval: 就像人生中大多数有趣、困难的事情一样,解法是间接的。
这也是”如何致富”推文串的一部分,就是如果你想致富,你不是直接冲着钱去。我想你可以像银行家那样做,但如果你在创造价值,你在使用杠杆,你在承担问责,你在运用你的专有知识,那么赚钱会成为一个副产品。
你会创造出伟大的产品,你会将自己产品化,金钱则作为副产品自然产生。同理,如果你想获得幸福,你就缩小自我,投入高心流的活动,或参与那些让你忘我的活动,幸福便自然降临。
顺便说一下,在引诱这件事上也是如此。你不会走上前去对一个女性说”我想和你上床”来引诱她。不是这样运作的。地位也是如此。公然追逐地位本身就是低地位的信号,追逐地位是一种低地位行为,因为它暴露了你一开始就处于地位等级中的下层。
并非所有事情都必须间接追求。许多事情最好直接去做。如果我想开车,我就坐进去开。如果我想写点什么,那我就坐下来写。但那些本质上具有竞争性的,或者在我们看来难以捉摸的事物——部分原因正是这些剩下的事情最好间接追求。
真正为自己工作时
Nivi: 选自 4 月 2 日:“当你真正为自己工作时,你不会有爱好,不会有周末,不会有假期,但你也不会有’工作’。”
Naval: 这就是为自己工作的悖论,每个创业者或每个自雇者都深有体会:当你开始为自己工作时,你基本上就牺牲了所谓的工作与生活平衡。
你牺牲了工作与生活的界限。不再有朝九晚五。不再有办公室。没有人告诉你该做什么。没有现成的 playbook 可循。与此同时,也没有什么可以关掉的。你关不掉它。你就是这家企业。你就是这个产品。你就是这份工作。你就是这个实体,而且你在乎。
如果你做的是真正属于你自己的事情,你会非常非常在乎,所以你关不掉它。这就是创业者的诅咒。但创业者的好处是,如果你做得对——如果你出于正确的理由、为正确的人、用正确的方式去做,而且如果你能把没有达成目标的压力搁到一边(这种压力是真实的,也很难搁到一边)——那它就不会感觉像工作。
而你恰好在那样的时刻效率最高。你基本上只以产出来衡量自己,你只需要达到自己为自己设定的标准。所以这可以极其令人振奋和令人感到自由。这也是我很久以前说过的:品尝过自由会让你变得无法被雇佣。
而这正是那种对自由的品尝。它让你在朝九晚五、遵循 playbook、有个老板这种经典意义上变得无法被雇佣。但一旦你从中挣脱出来,一旦你在没有安全网、没有老板、没有工作的情况下走过了钢丝——顺便说一下,这在小型创业团队中也可能发生,只要你是高度自我驱动的——你会得到在普通人看来像是巨大代价的东西:你没有周末,没有假期,没有休息时间,没有工作与生活的平衡。但与此同时,当你在工作的时候,它不感觉像工作。那是一件你高度有动力去做的事,而这正是回报。
总而言之,我确实认为这是一扇单向门。我认为,一旦人们体验过在真正在乎的事情上工作,与真正喜欢的人共事,以自我驱动的方式去做——他们就变得无法被雇佣。他们回不去那种有经理、有老板、有 check-in、朝九晚五、“这周这一天到场,坐在这张桌子前,这个时间通勤”的正常工作了。
Nivi: 我觉得这条推文里还有一个隐藏的含义,我猜是有意为之的。它以”当你真正为自己工作时”开头,我猜大多数人会把它理解为”你就是自己的老板”。但我另一种读法是:你在为自己工作。
也就是说,你的劳动是你自身是什么人、是什么样的一种表达。它是自我表达。而这不是一件容易弄清楚的事。
通过行动找到你的专有知识
Naval: 我最终认为,每个人都应该去弄清楚自己独特地最擅长做什么——这件事从根本上与你自身相契合,赋予你真实性,带来你的专有知识,给你竞争优势,使你不可替代。然后你应该全身心投入其中。有时候你不知道那是什么,直到你真正去做。
所以这就是在竞技场中生活。你不会知道自己的专有知识是什么,直到你去行动,直到你在各种困难的情境中去行动。然后你要么会意识到,“哦,我成功驾驭了那些别人会觉得很难的事情”,要么会有别人指出来。他们会说,“嘿,你的超能力好像是 X。”
我有一个朋友,创业好多次了。我总是注意到,他不一定是最聪明的,也不是最懂技术的。他非常勤奋——这也是为什么我不想说他不勤奋,他其实超级勤奋。但我注意到的是,他是最有勇气的。
他根本不在乎面前有什么障碍。没有任何事能让他消沉。他总是在笑,总是在微笑,总是一路往前冲。这种人放在一百年前,你会说,“哦,他是最有勇气的。去冲那个机枪阵地吧。”
他天生就适合干那种事。而在创业的语境下,他就是那种能一次又一次用头撞销售这堵墙、给几百个人打电话、直到终于有一个人说”好”的人。他会打 400 个电话,收到 399 个”不”。而一个”好”他就满足了。这就够了。
然后他可以开始迭代,从中学到东西。这就是他的专有知识。它是一种知识,是一种能力——他知道他对此没问题,他知道另一端有一个他愿意去追求的结果,而这就是一种超能力。现在,也许他可以进一步发展这种能力,或者把它与别的东西结合,甚至只需要把它用在需要的地方,就能让他变得某种程度上不可替代。
所以你通过行动——通过去做——来找到你的专有知识。而当你为自己工作时,你也会自然地倾向于以与你自身相契合的方式来选择和做事,去运用你的专有知识。
你必须非常享受它
Naval: 例如,看看营销,营销是一个开放性问题。人们用不同的方式尝试解决营销。有的人做视频,有的人写文章或发推文。有的人真的会站在外面举着广告牌。有的人会交一大堆朋友、举办派对、通过口碑传播。
现在,也许对你的生意来说,其中某一种比其他的要好得多,但最重要的是选择一个与你喜欢做的那个方式相契合的生意。比如,我有很多朋友来找我说,“嘿,我们一起做一档播客吧。“我就说,“你真的享受说话吗?你真的享受大量地说话吗?”
因为如果不是,你不会享受做播客的过程。你不会成为最擅长这个的人。“他们做播客只是为了营销。“于是他们做了两三期,然后最终就放弃了。
他们放弃是因为,首先,他们不享受做播客。我不是说稍微享受一点,你必须非常享受。如果你要做到顶尖,你对该事物的享受程度几乎要达到病态的水平。于是他们录了几期,然后他们的听众就会察觉到:“实际上这个人只是在问一堆问题,面无表情,似乎并不真的享受,而且在做播客中等同于不停看手表的动作。”
而像 Joe Rogan 这样的人——他如此沉浸其中——他如此热衷于和播客上那些奇奇怪怪的嘉宾聊天,以至于即使没有任何听众,这个人也会继续做下去。事实上,当他确实没有听众的时候他就在做了——那时候他在 Ustream 上,深夜在一个随机的网站上直播。
所以他成为顶级播客主播绝非偶然。因此,当你在做营销的时候,你要倚仗你的专有知识,倚仗你自己。如果你喜欢说话,那就试试播客。也许你更喜欢对话式的口吻,那你可以试试像 Twitter Spaces 这样的直播网络。
也许你喜欢写作。如果你喜欢长文写作,去 Substack。如果你喜欢短文写作,去 X。如果你喜欢非常长的形式,那也许写一系列博客文章,最终汇集成一本书。如果你喜欢做视频,那也许你可以用最新的 AI 模型制作视频,再在上面叠加内容。
但你必须做那些对你来说非常自然的事情。其中的诀窍之一,是选择一个你天性所擅长的东西恰好与之契合的生意,或者在那个生意中选择一个适合你的角色,或者找一个互补的联合创始人。这是一个匹配的问题,一个适配的问题。好消息是,在现代社会,机会是无限的。
有无限的人,无限的场所,无限的媒体形式。有无限的选择等着你。那么你怎么找到你真正擅长的那个东西?你要去尝试一切,而你会去尝试一切,因为你会去行动。你会站在竞技场上。你会去 tackling,去解决问题。
所以第一次做的时候,你可能做了一大堆你并不享受的事情,而且可能做得不好,但最终你会聚焦到你真正喜欢做的事情上,然后希望你能找到那个契合点。
暂停、反思、检视效果
Naval:我们过去谈过,“成为你所做的事情中世界上最厉害的人。不断重新定义你做的事情,直到这句话成立。“Akira 还为此做了一首歌。Akira the Don,上帝保佑他。我认为这句话绝对正确。你想成为你所做的事情中世界上最厉害的人,但要不断重新定义你做的事情,直到这成为事实。而这个重新定义能够奏效的唯一途径,就是通过迭代的过程,通过行动。所以,你需要那根胡萝卜,你需要那面旗帜。
你需要那个终点处的奖赏来牵引你前行,让你去行动,然后你需要迭代。迭代并不意味着重复。迭代不是机械的。不是一万小时,而是一万次迭代。不是花费的时间,而是学习循环。
所谓迭代,就是你做一件事,然后停下来,暂停,反思。你看看这次做得好不好。然后你做出改变。然后你尝试别的。然后暂停、反思、看看效果如何。然后你再次改变,再尝试别的。这就是迭代的过程,这就是学习的过程。所有学习系统都是这样运作的。
进化也是如此——迭代中有突变,有复制,然后有筛选。你淘汰掉那些不起作用的。技术和发明也是如此——你会创新,创造一项新技术,然后尝试将其规模化,要么在市场上存活下来,要么被淘汰出局。
David Deutsch 谈到的对优良解释的探索也是如此。你提出一个猜想,这个猜想接受批评,然后那些行不通的东西被剔除。这才是真正的科学方法。
这一切的核心就是找到对你而言最自然的东西,通过在竞技场中生活、高主动性、不断迭代的过程去实践,直到你弄明白,然后你就成为”它”的全球最佳,而”它”就是——做自己。
为一切责备自己,并捍卫你的能动性
Nivi:让我们再聊一条推文,我第一次看到的时候就很喜欢,或者我可能转发了它。我觉得人们转发东西,往往是因为看到了某种他们还没学会如何表达、但已经在脑海中隐约知道的想法——它只是隐性的,还没有被显性化。
我觉得当人们说”我必须转发这个”的时候,就是这种时刻。
这条是 1 月 17 日的:“为一切责备自己,并捍卫你的能动性。”
从我的角度来说就是:对一切承担责任,在承担责任的过程中,你就创造并保有了去解决那个问题的能动性。如果你不对这个问题负责,你就没有办法去解决这个问题。
Naval:关于你提到的这是你已经知道但表达方式让你很喜欢的东西这一点——Emerson 一直在做这件事。他会用优美的方式表达一些东西,然后你会说,“哦,这正是我在想和感受的,但我不知道该怎么表达。”
他是这样说的:“在每一件天才之作中,我们都能认出自己那些曾被拒绝的想法;它们带着某种疏离的庄严回到我们身边。“我太喜欢这句话了。这就是我在 Twitter 上努力做的事——说出真实的东西,但以一种有趣的方式。
而且不仅是真实和有趣,它还必须有真正的情感分量。它必须是最近触动了我、对我来说很重要的东西。否则我就是装的。我不会坐在那里绞尽脑汁想推文写。更多的是,某件事发生在我身上,某件事在情感上影响了我,然后我以某种方式把它综合起来。
我会测试它。我会问自己,“这是真的吗?“如果我觉得它是真的,或者大体是真的,或者在我关心的语境中是真的,而且我能用某种方式说出来、让它在我脑海中留下印记,那我就直接发出去。对那些能理解的人来说,这并不是什么新东西。
如果说得不够有趣,那它就是陈词滥调;如果人们听得太多了,它也是陈词滥调。但如果以一种有趣的方式说出来,它可能会提醒他们某些重要的东西,或者可能转化他们的专有知识,或者可能成为将他们的专有知识在自己脑海中转化为更普遍知识的钩子。
所以我发现这个过程对我自己很有用,希望对其他人也是如此。现在回到这条具体的推文,我注意到人们有一种非常愤世嫉俗的倾向,他们会说,“所有的财富都是偷来的”,比如说被银行家之流,或者裙带资本家之类的,或者干脆就是彻头彻尾的窃贼或寡头。
“如果你是 X,你就不可能在这个世界上出人头地。”
“如果你是个穷孩子,你就不可能在这个世界上出人头地。”
“如果你属于这个种族或族群,如果你出生在那个国家,或者如果你是跛脚的、残废的、失明的,“诸如此类。
这种说法的问题在于,没错,世界上确实存在真实的障碍。这不是一个公平的竞技场,而”公平”这种东西只存在于孩子的想象中,无法以任何真实的方式被固定下来。但世界并不完全靠运气。事实上,你知道这一点,因为在你自己的生活中,有一些事情是你做了之后才带来了好的结果,而你知道如果你没有做那件事,就不会有那个好的结果。
所以你绝对可以拨动指针,并非一切都靠运气。尤其是你考虑的时间跨度越长,活动的强度越高,你进行的迭代越多,你投入的思考和选择越多,运气的重要性就越低。它退隐到远处。
举一个简单的例子,大多数人可能不太喜欢,因为他们不在硅谷——但 20 年前我在硅谷遇到的每一个聪明人,每一个,那些年轻而才华横溢的人,每一个都成功了。每一个都是。我想不出任何例外。我当初应该回去,仅仅根据他们的才华就把他们全部编入索引。顺便说一下,这正是 Y Combinator 在大规模做的事情,对吧?多么精妙的机制。
所以这确实有效。只要人们坚持 20 年,它就有效。你可能说:“你说得倒轻巧,那是硅谷的人。”
没有一个人是出生在那里的。他们都是搬过去的。他们搬过去是因为他们想和其他聪明的孩子在一起,因为他们想拥有高度的能动性。所以能动性确实有效,但如果你在计较时间周期,你会失望的。
你会过早放弃。所以你需要一个更高的驱动力。这就是为什么 Elon 要去火星,这就是为什么 Sam 想发明 AGI。这也是为什么 Steve Jobs 在 50 年前,八十年代就在谈论要造一台能放进书里的电脑。
他说的是 iPad。正是这些非常长远的愿景,在漫长的时间里支撑着你,去真正建造你想建造的东西,到达你想去的地方。
愤世嫉俗的信念会自我实现
所以愤世嫉俗的信念是自我实现的。悲观的信念就像你骑摩托车,却盯着你应该转弯避开的那堵砖墙。你会在不知不觉中撞上那堵砖墙。
所以你必须保护你的能动性。你必须保护你能改变事物的信念。你天生就有能动性。孩子们是高能动性的。他们去拿他们想要的东西。如果他们想要什么,看到了,就去拿。你必须保护你的能动性。你必须保护你能改变事物的信念。
你不可能欺骗大自然母亲
Naval: 你必须为发生在你身上的一切坏事承担责任——这是一种心态。
也许有点假,但它非常符合自身利益。事实上,如果你能做到更进一步,把你身上发生的一切好事都归结为运气,那也可能是有帮助的。但在某种程度上,真相非常重要。你不想作假。
据我观察,事情的真相是:那些非常努力、全身心投入、不轻言放弃、在足够长的时间尺度上对结果承担责任的人,最终都会在他们专注的领域取得成功。每一个成功的案例都知道这一点。
Richard Feynman 曾经说他不是天才。他只是一个全身心投入、非常努力的人。是的,他显然很聪明。但那是必要条件,而非充分条件。我们都见过那种聪明但懒惰的人的套路。
而且我喜欢跟我所有的朋友调侃——包括 Nivi——我注意到这些人的一个问题是,你们远远没有发挥出自己的潜力。你们的潜力比你们现在的位置高得多。你必须把一部分势能转化为动能。
具有讽刺意味的是,这样做反而会提高你的潜力,因为我们不是静态的生物。
我们是动态的生物。你会学到更多。你会在实践中学习。所以别再找借口了,进入竞技场吧。
Schopenhauer 的启示
Nivi: 你也很喜欢 Schopenhauer。你从 Schopenhauer 那里学到了什么,或者他的作品里有什么令人惊讶的地方吗?
Naval: Schopenhauer 不适合所有人,而且有不止一个 Schopenhauer。他写了很多东西,你可以读他那些更晦涩的哲学文本,比如《作为意志和表象的世界》(The World as Will and Idea),那是他为其他哲学家写的。或者你可以读他更实用的作品,比如《论存在的虚无》(On the Vanity of Existence)。
他是历史上为数不多的毫不畏缩地写作的人之一。他写下他相信为真的东西。他并不总是正确的,但他从不对你说谎——这一点你能感受得到。他对事物的思考非常深入。
他不太在意别人怎么看他。他所知道的就是:“我写下来的东西,我知道它是真的。”
他也从不摆架子。他不用华丽的语言;他不想给你留下深刻印象。
人们称他为悲观主义者。我认为这不完全公平。我认为他的世界观可以被解读为悲观的,但我只是想读一剂刺骨的真相时才会去读他。
Schopenhauer 对我独特的作用在于,他给了我完全的许可去做我自己。他完全不在乎大众怎么想,他对庸常思维的鄙夷溢于言表。
当然,我不一定认同这一点——我比他更倾向平等主义一些。但他确实给了你做自己的许可。所以如果你擅长某件事,不要害羞。承认你擅长某件事。
这对我来说很难,因为我们都想与人相处融洽。如果你想在群体中相处融洽,你就不想太突出。有句老话:出头的椽子先烂。
但如果你要做出任何卓越的成就,你确实必须在某种程度上押注自己。如果你在某方面出类拔萃,那确实需要你承认自己在那方面出类拔萃——或者至少在努力做到出类拔萃——而不必在意别人的看法。
当然,你也不想陷入妄想。任何从事投资行业的人都会不断遇到那些说”我在某方面很厉害”的人,而他们多少有些妄想。不,你没有资格说自己出类拔萃。是别人来说你出类拔萃,你妈妈的不算。
真实的反馈来自自由市场和自然
来自他人的反馈通常是假的。奖项是假的。评论家是假的。来自亲朋好友的赞美是假的。他们也许想做到真诚,但淹没在如此庞大的虚假之中,你不会得到真正的反馈。
真正的反馈来自自由市场和自然。物理学是严酷的:你的产品要么管用,要么不管用。自由市场是严酷的:人们要么买,要么不买。但来自他人的反馈是假的。
你无法从群体中获得好的反馈,因为群体只是在试图维持和谐。个人追寻真理,群体寻求共识。一个不和谐的群体会解体。它会分崩离析。而群体越大,你能从中获得的好反馈就越少。
你不必非得依赖来自你妈妈或朋友或家人的反馈,甚至不必依赖颁奖典礼和评奖体系。
如果你的公司优化的目标是登上杂志封面,或是赢得行业奖项,那你就失败了。
你需要客户。那才是你真正的反馈。你需要来自自然的反馈。
你的火箭发射了吗?
你的无人机飞起来了吗?
你的 3D 打印机是否在规定的时间内、在预算成本内,按照应有的精度打印出了物体?
人很容易欺骗自己。也很容易被他人欺骗。
但你不可能欺骗大自然母亲。
最好的作者尊重读者的时间
Nivi: 与 Schopenhauer 不同,你是一位工业哲学家。就像工业设计师一样,你的哲学是为大众设计的。人们建议你去读那些伟大的著作——Aristotle、Wittgenstein 以及所有那些所谓的伟大哲学家。
我几乎读过所有那些东西,从中获得的价值很少。我真正获得价值的地方是 Twitter 上人们的哲思,比如你的。任何想读哲学的人,我就告诉他们跳过那些,去读 David Deutsch。
Naval: 你没说错。你提到的那些哲学家我一个都受不了。我也不喜欢 Plato。
我拿起的每一本其他哲学著作都很快就放下了,因为他们只是在极其晦涩地就细枝末节进行论证,试图构建包罗万象的世界理论。就连 Schopenhauer 也会掉进这个陷阱。当他试图与其他哲学家对话时,他的表现最差。
叔本华的短文与高密度阅读
我喜欢他的地方是他的短文。那些短文里,他写得几乎像在发 Twitter 一样。他要是上了 Twitter,一定称霸一方。他的思想密度极高——思考透彻;例证和类比精当而克制。你拿起来读一段,接下来一小时都在回味。我认为正是因为读了他的东西,我成了一个更好的写作者、更好的思考者,也更善于判断人和性格。
当然,他写作的年代是 19 世纪早期。一旦他涉足科学、医学或政治话题,显然就不着边际了——那些东西已经不再适用。但他写人性的时候,那是永恒的。
凡是涉及人性的东西,我说去读林迪(Lindy)类的书——那些更古老的、经受了时间考验的书。但如果你想发展专有知识、靠它赚钱、做有用的事,那你就得站在最前沿。那种知识更讲究时效,过时得也更快。
这两者都说得通。说不通的是去读那些既非林迪、又不是关于人性、却很旧的东西。我也避开那些学习密度低的东西,比如历史书。
我喜欢 Will Durant 的《历史的教训》(The Lessons of History),因为它是《文明的故事》(The Story of Civilization)的浓缩版,后者是他那套十二卷的大部头。但我不会去读那十二卷。我读过不少历史,知道他指的是什么,所以我不只是在高层概念上盲从他的说法。
但与此同时,到了我人生现阶段,我想读高密度的作品。你可以称之为 TikTok 病或 Twitter 一代,但这同时也是对时间的尊重。我们已经有大量数据,有了一些知识。现在我们需要的是智慧。我们需要那些普遍性的原则,可以把它们挂靠到脑中已有的所有其他信息上。
我们确实想读高密度的作品,而我认为 Schopenhauer 就是非常高密度的。
所有我最喜欢的作家都是极高密度的。Deutsch 极其高密度。Borges 非常高密度。Ted Chiang 非常高密度。早期的 Neal Stephenson 非常高密度(后来他就变成高篇幅、高密度、什么都高了)。
但最优秀的作家尊重读者的时间,Schopenhauer 正是这一脉的。
大多数书应该略读,少数书应该精读
Nivi: 关于知识哲学的前沿——人们称之为认识论(epistemology)——你基本上可以跳过一切,直接读 David Deutsch。
Naval: 我觉得没错。如果你只想了解认识论,读 David Deutsch——到此为止。
话虽如此,对一些人来说,了解历史背景、反面论证、他的思想来龙去脉,是有帮助的。
现有的知识理论——比如经证成的真信念理论(justified true belief theory)或知识的归纳理论(inductive theory)——这些深深嵌入了我们的思维,既来自学校教育,也来自日常经验。
归纳推理似乎理应成立:你每天都看到太阳升起,太阳明天也会升起。这似乎就是常识。
太多人相信这一点了,以至于如果你只读 Deutsch,你会看到他在逐一击破这些东西,但你自己并没有把这些东西建立在稳固的基础上。所以你可能会想象还存在某种反驳的例子。
很久以前我第一次读 Deutsch 的时候,并没有完全读懂。我把它当作任何其他物理学家写的任何其他书来对待。所以我读 Paul Davies、Carlo Rovelli 和 Deutsch,给予他们同等程度的沉思、时间和尊重。
结果我错了。
结果 Deutsch 实际上在一个深得多的层面上运作。他有许多不同的理论,它们连贯地衔接在一起,创造出一种世界哲学,所有部分互相支撑。
先读其他人而不是直接跳到 Deutsch 可能有帮助,但我绝对会从 Deutsch 开始。然后如果你不太确定,再去读一些其他人,再回到 Deutsch 重试,你就会看到他是如何回应那些问题的。
Deutsch 自己会推荐你去读 Popper。他会说:“哦,我不过是在重复 Popper 罢了。”
不完全对。我觉得 Popper 难接近得多,难读得多,作为写作者远没有 Deutsch 清晰。虽然我认为 Deutsch 和 Brett Hall 都不会同意我——他们觉得 Popper 非常清晰;而我觉得他非常难读。
不管什么原因,我觉得 Deutsch 更容易读,也许是因为 Popper 花了多得多的时间去阐释核心论点。Popper 是写给哲学家看的。Deutsch 不是写给哲学家看的。Deutsch 甚至不是写给科学家看的。Deutsch 不是写给你看的。我的感觉是 Deutsch 是写给自己看的。他只是在阐明自己的想法,以及这些想法如何全部连接在一起。
我也认为仅仅读 Deutsch 的认识论部分不会获得最大价值,尽管那绝对是每个人都应该从那里开始的地方。那就是《无限的开始》(The Beginning of Infinity)的前三章。
讽刺的是,在《无限的开始》里,开头几章和最后几章是最容易读、最平易近人的。中间部分是一场硬仗,因为涉及量子计算、量子物理、进化论等等。
我认为人们正是在这里会感到吃力,因为这确实需要——不一定需要数学或科学背景——但至少要对科学概念和原理感到自在。而且他在为多重宇宙(multiverse)做一个强有力的论证,而大多数人在这个问题上并没有什么立场。他们没有想那么远。他们并不执着于量子力学的观察者坍缩理论(observer collapse theory),因为他们并不真正关心量子力学。这不影响日常生活。
我从读 Deutsch 的全部作品中得到的收获是,我看到了他的理论是如何浑然一体的。每一个部分都触及并依赖于另一个部分。
他实际上是在试图想出一种方法来证伪他的多重宇宙理论——那是一个量子物理学理论——的时候,提出了量子计算理论,并把丘奇-图灵猜想(Church–Turing conjecture)扩展为丘奇-图灵-Deutsch 猜想(Church–Turing–Deutsch conjecture)。为了做到这一点,他必须发明量子计算,因为要设计证伪多重宇宙理论的实验,他必须——在脑海中——想象一个 AGI,钻进 AGI 的大脑,然后问:“如果那个 AGI 在观察什么东西,会坍缩吗?”
“但现在我需要进入大脑内部。”
“好,我怎么进入一个量子 AGI 的大脑?怎么才能创造一个量子 AGI?我们根本没有量子计算机!”
“好,我们需要量子计算机。”
于是他提出了量子计算理论,由此开创了量子计算领域。
这就是量子物理学和量子计算密不可分的一个例证。
好的产品难以变动
Naval: 我认为跨越所有这些不同学科去读 Deutsch 是非常有用的。即使是他谈论模因(memes)和模因理论的时候——那源于进化论,但直接跨越到了认识论、猜想与批评。
它还远远超出了他对财富的定义:你能够实现的物理变换的集合。这个定义同时纳入了资本和知识,并且清楚地表明知识是更大的组成部分。然后这可以引入商业中,应用到日常生活中。它既适用于国家的财富,也适用于个人的财富。
所以有很多部分是相互关联的。
他说好的解释难以变动(hard to vary)。所以当你回头看一个好的解释时,你会说:“还能是怎样的呢?这是唯一能让这件事成立的方式。”
所有这些不同的部分相互契合、彼此约束,从而产生某种涌现属性,某种复杂性,或某种你未曾预料的结局——某种干净利落地解释了一切的说明。
这不仅仅适用于好的解释。它同样适用于产品开发。
好的产品难以变动。
去看看 iPhone:那块光滑、完美、美丽的宝石。自从初代以来,外形设计并没有真正改变多少。一切都围绕着那块单一屏幕——多点触控、嵌入电池、让它能塞进口袋、让它光滑顺滑地贴合你的手掌——本质上是在创造真正个人化、可口袋携带的电脑的柏拉图式理想。
所以那个产品难以变动。无论是苹果还是它的竞争对手,在 16 代 iPhone 的迭代中都试图去变动它,却始终无法在实质上加以改变。他们可以改进零部件、提升一些底层能力;但在实质上,外形设计难以变动。他们设计出了正确的东西。
有句名言,我印象中出自 Antoine de Saint-Exupéry,他说飞机机翼之所以完美,“不是因为没有什么可以再添加的,而是因为没有什么可以再删减的”。
那片机翼难以变动。
当我们找到抵达火星的航天器的正确设计时,我敢打赌,无论是在高层架构还是在细节层面,很长一段时间内,那个东西都会难以变动,直到出现某种突破性技术。
基本内燃机的设计曾难以变动,直到我们拥有了足够好的电池,然后创造了电动汽车。而现在,电动汽车难以变动。
事实上,现在一些设计师抱怨说,在现代社会中,产品和物品开始看起来千篇一律。这是因为 Instagram 吗?为什么会这样?
嗯,至少在汽车的案例中,它们看起来都像是经过了风洞设计,因为那才是最高效的设计。它们看起来都很流畅、流线型,是因为它们都在经过风洞测试,试图找到以最小阻力穿过空气的方案。所以它们最终确实都长得一样,因为那个设计在不损失效率的前提下难以变动。
知识的分形本质
好的写作者以如此高的密度和互联性进行写作,以至于他们的作品在本质上是分形的。你会在你准备好接收知识的层次上与知识相遇。
你不需要全部理解。这就是学习的本质。你读了一遍,理解了 20%。然后你再回去读一遍,理解了 25%。你配合着听一期 Brett Hall 的播客,现在理解了 28%。然后你去 Grok 或 ChatGPT,问一些问题,深入某个部分,现在理解了 31%。
所有知识都是作者与观察者或读者之间的沟通,双方都必须达到一定的层次才能吸收它。当你准备好接收不同的片段时,你就会接收到不同的片段,但无论你处于什么层次,你总能从中获得一些东西——只要你能读懂那种语言。
找到最简单且有效的方案
Nivi: 我们都看过 SpaceX 火箭的 Raptor 发动机的照片,如果你观察它的各个迭代版本,它们从容易变动变成了难以变动。因为最新的版本已经没有那么多让你可以摆弄的部件了。
早期的版本有无数不同的部件——你可以改变厚度、宽度、材料等等。而当前的版本几乎没有剩下什么部件让你可以做任何改动。
Naval: 复杂性理论中有一个观点:每当你在自然界中发现一个正在运作的复杂系统,它通常是一个极其简单的系统或事物经过反复迭代的产物。
我们最近在 AI 研究中看到了这一点——你只是拿非常简单的算法,然后往里面灌入越来越多的数据。它们就变得越来越聪明。
效果不好的恰好是反过来。当你设计一个非常复杂的系统,然后试图从中构建一个能运作的大型系统时,它就会土崩瓦解。其中包含了太多的复杂性。所以很多产品设计就是对自己的设计不断迭代,直到找到那个简单而有效的方案。而且你常常在它周围堆加了不需要的东西,然后你又得回过头来,从噪音中把简单性重新提取出来。
你可以在个人计算领域看到这一点:macOS 仍然比 iOS 难用不少。iOS 更接近操作系统的柏拉图式理想。尽管基于大语言模型的操作系统可能更接近——用自然语言进行交互。
最终,你必须去除一些东西才能实现规模化,Raptor 发动机就是一个例子。随着你弄清楚什么才是有效的,你也就认识到什么是多余的,就可以去除一些部件。
质疑每一项需求
这也是 Musk 的一条核心驱动原则,他基本上是说:在你优化一个系统之前——那几乎是你要做的最后几件事之一。在你开始想办法让某样东西变得更高效之前,你要做的第一件事是质疑需求。
你会问:“这个需求为什么存在?”
Jorgenson 的新书中提到的一条 Elon 的方法是:你首先去追溯那个需求。不是哪个部门提出了这个需求;需求必须来自某个具体的人。
谁是那个说”我要这个”的人。
你回头去找他说:“你真的需要这个吗?”
你把这个需求消除掉。一旦你消除了那些不必要的需求,你就有了一个更小的需求集合。现在你有了部件,你要尽可能去掉更多部件,只满足那些绝对必要的需求。
然后在那之后,也许你才开始考虑优化,现在你要想的是如何最高效地制造这个部件并把它安装到正确的位置。最后,你可能会考虑成本效率和规模经济之类的事情。
全局视野的产品缔造者
将一个伟大产品从零到一推进的最关键人物,是那个能够把整个问题装在脑子里、做出权衡取舍、理解每个部件为何处于其所在位置的人——通常是创始人。
他们未必需要是设计每个部件的人,也不一定要负责制造或了解所有细节,但他们确实需要能够理解:这个部件为什么在这里?如果 A 部件被移除了,那么 B、C、D、E 部件以及它们各自的需求和考量会发生什么变化?
这就是对整个产品的全局视野。
你在 Raptor 发动机设计中可以看到这一点。Elon 举了一个我觉得很好的例子——他曾试图让特斯拉电池上方那些玻璃纤维垫的生产更高效。
于是他去了那条耗时过长的生产线,铺下睡袋,就待在那条线旁边。他们试图优化那个把玻璃纤维垫粘到电池上的机器人。他们想更高效地粘贴或者加速那条生产线。他们确实做到了——成功改进了一些,但依然慢得令人沮丧。
最后他说:“这个需求为什么在这里?我们为什么要在电池上面放玻璃纤维垫?”
电池那边的人说:“其实是为了降噪,所以你得去找噪音和振动团队谈谈。”
于是他去找噪音和振动团队。
他问:“我们为什么要有这些垫子?噪音和振动的问题是什么?”
他们说:“不不——没有噪音和振动的问题。它们在那里是因为热量,以防电池起火。”
然后他回到电池团队问:“我们真的需要这个吗?”
他们说:“不需要。这里没有起火的问题。不是热防护的问题。那已经过时了。是噪音和振动的问题。”
他们每个人都是按照自己受训的方式做事——按照一直以来的做法做事。他们对安全性做了测试,又通过在电池上放置麦克风来追踪噪音进行测试,最终认定不需要这个部件,于是把它去掉了。
这种情况在非常复杂的系统和复杂的设计中经常发生。
有趣的是——每个人都自称”通才”,这其实是他们逃避成为专才的借口。但你真正应该做的是一个博学者(polymath),也就是一个能够掌握任何专长——至少达到 80/20 水平——的通才,这样才能做出明智的权衡取舍。
Nivi:我建议人们获得那种博学者能力的方式——成为一个能掌握任何专长的通才——是如果你要学习什么,如果你要去上学,那就去研究那些适用范围最广的理论。
Naval:我会更进一步概括,直接说——学物理。
一旦你学了物理,你学的是现实如何运作。如果你有扎实的物理背景,你可以学电气工程。你可以学计算机科学。你可以学材料科学。你可以学统计学和概率论。你可以学数学,因为数学是物理的一部分——它是应用性的。
我在几乎所有领域遇到的顶尖人才,都有物理背景。如果你没有物理背景,别沮丧。我的物理也没学成。你仍然可以通过其他途径达到目标,但物理训练你与现实互动,而且它毫不留情,会把所有那些好听但虚假的东西从你脑子里打掉。
而如果你身处社会科学领域,你可以抱有各种荒诞不经的信念。即使你掌握了社会科学中那些晦涩的数学,你也可能只有 10% 的真知识,却有 90% 的假知识。
物理学的好消息是,你可以只学相当基础的物理。你不必一路深入到夸克和量子物理之类的领域。你只需要了解球从斜面上滚下来这类基础内容,这其实就是很好的基础训练。
不过我认为任何 STEM 学科都值得学习。如果你已经过了选择学什么的阶段,那就去找人组队。实际上,最优秀的人不一定只是学过物理。他们是修修补补的人(tinkerers),是建造者,他们在造东西。这些修补者总是站在知识的前沿,因为他们总是在用最新的工具和最新的零件来打造酷炫的东西。
比如那些在无人机成为军事装备之前就自己组装竞速无人机的人,或者那些在机器人成为军事装备之前就打造格斗机器人的人,又或者那些因为想在家里有一台电脑而不满足于去学校使用公共电脑、于是自己组装个人电脑的人。这些人是最理解事物本质的人,也是推动知识进步最快的人。
术语表
| 原文 | 中文 |
|---|---|
| accountability | 问责 |
| agency | 能动性 |
| AGI | AGI(通用人工智能) |
| Airchat | Airchat(语音社交应用) |
| Akira the Don | Akira the Don(音乐人) |
| Antoine de Saint-Exupéry | Antoine de Saint-Exupéry(圣埃克苏佩里,法国作家) |
| Aristotle | Aristotle(亚里士多德) |
| bankster | 银行家(带有贬义的 bankers 与 gangster 合成词) |
| Borges | Borges(博尔赫斯,阿根廷作家) |
| Brett Hall | Brett Hall(科普博主) |
| Carlo Rovelli | Carlo Rovelli(理论物理学家) |
| ChatGPT | ChatGPT(AI 助手) |
| check-in | check-in(汇报沟通机制) |
| Church–Turing conjecture | 丘奇-图灵猜想 |
| Church–Turing–Deutsch conjecture | 丘奇-图灵-Deutsch 猜想 |
| Clubhouse | Clubhouse(语音社交应用) |
| David Deutsch | David Deutsch(物理学家、哲学家) |
| Emerson | Emerson(爱默生,美国思想家) |
| epistemology | 认识论 |
| Grok | Grok(AI 助手) |
| Hallmark aphorisms | 贺卡式格言 |
| heuristic | 经验法则 |
| inductive theory | 归纳理论 |
| Intellectual Yet Idiots (IYI) | 有知却愚蠢的知识分子 |
| iteration | 迭代 |
| Jorgenson | Jorgenson(《The Almanack of Naval Ravikant》作者) |
| justified true belief theory | 经证成的真信念理论 |
| leverage | 杠杆 |
| Lindy | 林迪(Lindy 效应,指经得起时间考验的事物) |
| meme theory | 模因理论 |
| memes | 模因 |
| multiverse | 多重宇宙 |
| Musk | Musk(马斯克,企业家) |
| Neal Stephenson | Neal Stephenson(尼尔·斯蒂芬森,科幻作家) |
| Nivi | Nivi(Naval 的合作者) |
| observer collapse theory | 观察者坍缩理论 |
| overeducated | 过度教育 |
| Paul Davies | Paul Davies(物理学家、科普作家) |
| Periscopes | Periscope(直播平台) |
| Plato | Plato(柏拉图) |
| playbook | playbook(现成方案/既定流程) |
| Popper | Popper(波普尔,哲学家) |
| Richard Feynman | Richard Feynman(费曼,物理学家) |
| Schopenhauer | Schopenhauer(叔本华,德国哲学家) |
| specific knowledge | 专有知识 |
| Steve Jobs | Steve Jobs(史蒂夫·乔布斯) |
| Ted Chiang | Ted Chiang(特德·姜,科幻作家) |
| The Man in the Arena | 竞技场中的人 |
| tweetstorm | 推文串 |
| Ustream | Ustream(早期直播平台) |
| Will Durant | Will Durant(威尔·杜兰特,历史哲学家) |
| Wittgenstein | Wittgenstein(维特根斯坦) |
| Y Combinator | Y Combinator(创业孵化器) |
| zero to one | 从零到一 |
此文章由 AI 翻译(miaoyan_chunk_translate)