美国之春
一党制体系管理着美国,而美国管理者世界。
美国有制衡机制——治理需要共识,人民从国王统治中解放出来。为了保护言论,制定者没有设立反对垄断选票阴谋的规则。
政党形成以垄断选票。失败的政党不断联合,直到只剩下两个政党。它们类似于庞大且不朽的公司,巩固了所有政治权力。
政党需要大众媒体来赢得选举。媒体字面上中介了现实,并通过设定任何辩论的可接受参数来编程选民。大众媒体需要大量资金。
精英阶层,即前百分之几的富豪统治集团,买下了政党。事实上如此廉价,他们买下了双方。
精英阶层仅仅是那些上对了学校、在对的社区长大、来自对的金钱和对的家庭的人。这不是一个正式的阴谋——而是一个复杂且分布式的系统,由市场的无形之手组织,用美元和报纸墨水投票,同样控制着国家。
在某些参数内,精英们争论——是从空中投掷炸弹还是地面部署部队?我们应该对收入征收多少税?
大多数情况下,精英们同意将权力保留在精英机构手中,控制那些不能被信任的群众。支持战争,支持大规模监控,支持救助,支持毒品战争,支持反恐战争,支持无期限版权,支持垄断和寡头垄断,反对任期限制,反对财富税……在这些和其他问题上,选择R或D,没有选择余地。
精英党运行着这个体系,基本上运作良好。精英保持精英地位。收入可能被征税,但财富会复利增长。群众中最具攻击性和最顽固的人被派往遥远得令人庆幸的战争中作战。犯罪发生在别人的社区。监狱人满为患,每个人都被监视着。蛋糕在缓慢而不均匀地扩大,一切安好。
一个弱点——总统职位是一个具有巨大可见度和权力的单一职位,直接民主选举产生。一人一票。无论教育、道德、教养、知识、成就如何。每个人是否真的、确实、平等地有资格投票,精英们想知道?
精英们将王冠锁在两扇巨大的门后——竞选总统需要十亿美元。以及无法估量的、有利的大众媒体曝光。
这运作得很好——好到精英们变得懒惰,将总统权力在王朝之间交接——在父子、夫妻之间。
从统计学上讲,三亿人中最有资格担任总统的两位候选人是兄弟姐妹的几率是多少?或者是已婚夫妇?
巴拉克·奥巴马打断了一个正在进行的加冕仪式。利用希望、变革和新兴的替代在线媒体,他组织并将新选民带到投票站。但在那时,仍然需要电视、金钱、报纸和政党机器。他不能也并非独自完成,最终加入了精英阶层。
今天,这是一个不同的世界。YouTube、Twitter和Facebook让一个人无需许可、无需审查、无需延迟地向数十亿人广播。社交媒体使大规模组织和抵抗成为可能。
阿拉伯之春只是一个后果。2016年的美国之春是另一个。
社交和替代媒体主导并去中介化大众媒体。每一篇专栏文章都带来一百篇反驳。《纽约时报》和《华尔街日报》像普通人一样站在博主旁边,乞求推文、点赞和投票。我们现在都是记者和编辑。
伯尼可以玩这个游戏。MoveOn人群使用新媒体毫不费力地组织起来。
特朗普可以玩这个游戏。这位真人秀老手在过程中制造愤怒和关注,边走边发推文。
与此同时,互联网杀死了政治广告。每个人都在网上——跳过、屏蔽,或者只是误点击。
伯尼在广告上花了一点钱。特朗普根本不在乎。
不仅仅是发布——互联网让任何人在线捐赠小额资金。伯尼利用群众——每天从小额捐赠者那里获得超过一百万美元!再次,特朗普根本不在乎。他只是自筹资金。
大众媒体障碍已经消失。资金障碍已经消失。
一群暴民在推动伯尼。特朗普身后拉着一群暴民。
精英们暴怒。他们嘲笑群众——没受过教育。社会主义者。种族主义者。卢德分子。
纵观历史,精英和富豪一直害怕直接民主。一人一票在逻辑上导致暴民统治。社会主义。部落主义。群众总是比精英”更疯狂”。精英喜欢现状,所以他们把政策拉向中心。是群众想要真正的改变。
YouTube杀死了电视,Twitter吞噬了新闻。唐纳德从他的飞机上发推文,伯尼的众筹活动病毒式传播。软件正在吞噬政治,精英们已经失去控制。
现在我们看到”民有、民治、民享”。整齐标记的”民主党”和”共和党”捆绑将被选民重新组装,一次一票而不是一次一美元。
桑德斯的选民认为富人偷了他们的钱。特朗普的选民认为非法移民偷了他们的工作。
再也没有建制派了。像所有互联网事物一样,社交媒体和众筹是不可阻挡的。未来的每一次大型选举都会有局外人超越建制派组织、筹款和激怒。
美国正在从精英共和国转变为直接民主。向左看,向右看。醒来——人民在这里。
更新: 阅读续篇,[美国之秋](American Fall)。
American Spring
A one party system ran the United States, and the United States ran the world.
The US had checks and balances – governing required consensus, and the people were freed from kings. To protect speech, the framers left out a rule against conspiracies to monopolize the vote.
Political parties formed to monopolize the vote. The losing parties kept ganging up until only two parties remained. Resembling vast and immortal corporations, they consolidated all political power.
The parties need mass media to win elections. Media literally intermediates reality and programs voters by framing the acceptable parameters of any debate. Mass media costs mass money.
The elites, a plutocracy of the top few percent, bought the parties. So cheaply in fact, that they bought both.
The elites are merely people that went to the right schools, grew up in the right neighborhoods, and came from the right money and the right families. It’s not a formal conspiracy – rather an intricate and distributed system, organized by the invisible hand of the market, voting with dollars and newspaper ink, and controlling the country all the same.
Within some parameters, the elites argue – bombs from the air or boots on the ground? How much should we tax income?
Mostly the elites agree to keep power with elite institutions, controlling the masses who cannot be trusted. Yes to wars, yes to mass surveillance, yes to bailouts, yes to war on drugs, yes to war on terror, yes to endless copyrights, yes to monopolies and oligopolies, no to term limits, no to wealth taxes… On these and others, pick R or D, there are no choices.
The Elite Party runs the system and it basically works. The elite stay elite. Income may be taxed, but wealth compounds. The most belligerent and implacable of the masses are sent to fight in mercifully distant wars. Crime happens in other people’s neighborhoods. The prisons are full and everyone is being watched. The pie expands, slowly and un-evenly, and all is well.
One weakness – the presidency is a single office of great visibility and power, directly and democratically elected. One person, one vote. Regardless of education, ethic, breeding, knowledge, achievement. Is everyone actually, really, equally qualified to vote, the elites wonder?
The elites lock the crown behind two massive gates – it costs a billion dollars to run for president. And incalculable, favorable mass media exposure.
This works well – so well that the elites get lazy, handing off presidential power within dynasties – between fathers and sons, husbands and wives.
Statistically speaking, what are the odds that the two most qualified candidates to be president out of 300 million people are siblings? Or married?
Barack Obama interrupts an in-process coronation. Using hope, change, and emerging alternative online media, he organizes and brings new voters to the polls. But back then, it still takes television, money, newspapers, and the party apparatus. He can’t and doesn’t do it alone, and eventually joins the elite.
Today, it’s a different world. YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook let one human broadcast to billions, without permission, without censors, without delay. Social media makes mass organization and resistance possible.
The Arab Spring is just one consequence. The American Spring of 2016 is another.
Social and alternative media dominates and disintermediates mass media. Every column brings a hundred rebuttals. The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are stood like commoners next to bloggers, begging for tweets, likes, and votes. We are all journalists and editors now.
Bernie can play this game. The MoveOn crowd organizes effortlessly using the new media.
Trump can play this game. The reality show vet generates outrage and impressions, tweeting as he goes.
Meanwhile, the Internet kills the political ad. Everyone is online – skipping, blocking, or just mis-clicking.
Bernie spends a bit on ads. Trump doesn’t bother.
It’s not just publishing – the Internet lets anyone donate little bits online. Bernie taps the crowd – over a million dollars a day from small donors! Again, Trump doesn’t bother. He just self-finances.
The mass media barrier is down. The money barrier is down.
A mob is pushing Bernie. Trump is pulling one behind him.
The elites are livid. They sneer at the masses – Uneducated. Socialist. Racist. Luddite.
Throughout history, elites and plutocrats have feared direct democracy. One-person, one-vote logically leads towards mob rule. Socialism. Tribalism. The masses are always “crazier” than the elites. The elites like the status quo, so they pull policy towards the center. It’s the masses that want real change.
YouTube killed TV and Twitter ate the news. Donald’s tweeting from his jet and Bernie’s kickstarter went viral. Software is eating politics and the elites have lost control.
Now we see “of the people, by the people, and for the people.” The neatly labeled bundles of “Democrat” and “Republican” are going to get re-assembled by the voters, one vote at a time instead of one dollar at a time.
Sanders’ voters think the rich stole their money. Trump’s voters think the illegals stole their jobs.
There is no more establishment. Like all things Internet, social media and crowd financing are unstoppable. Every large future election will have outsiders out-organizing, out-raising, and out-raging the establishment.
America is going from a republic of elites to a direct democracy. Look to your left, and look to your right. Wake up – the people are here.
Update: Read the sequel, [American Fall](American Fall).