给足智多谋者的忠告

Paul Graham 2012-01-01

给足智多谋者的忠告

2012年1月

一年前,我注意到我们资助的最不成功的创业公司有一个模式:他们似乎都很难沟通。感觉我们之间有某种墙。我从来不能完全确定他们是否理解我的话。

这引起了我的注意,因为之前我们已经注意到最成功的创业公司有一个模式,这似乎取决于不同的品质。我们发现表现最好的创业公司是那些我们会说”他们能够照顾自己”的创始人。表现最好的创业公司是那种”发射后不用管”的类型,你只需要给他们一个线索,他们就会完成交易,无论是什么类型的线索。例如,当他们融资时,你可以做初步的介绍,知道如果你想的话,你可以在此之后停止考虑这件事。你不需要监督这一轮以确保它发生。那种类型的创始人会带着钱回来;唯一的问题是多少钱,什么条件。

奇怪的是,频谱两端的异常值可以通过看起来不相关的测试来检测。你可能会期望,如果一端的创始人以品质x为特征,另一端的创始人将以缺乏x为特征。足智多谋和难以沟通之间是否存在某种反向关系?

事实证明确实存在,而谜题的关键是古老的谚语”对聪明人说一句话就足够了”。因为这句话不仅被过度使用,而且以间接的方式被过度使用(通过将主题前置到某些建议之前),大多数听过它的人不知道它的意思。它的意思是,如果某人是聪明的,你只需要对他们说一个词,他们就会立即理解。你不需要详细解释;他们会追寻所有的含义。

就像你只需要给合适类型的创始人一个单行的风险投资介绍,他就会追寻资金一样。这就是联系。理解某人告诉你的所有含义——即使是不方便的含义——是足智多谋的一个子集。这是对话的足智多谋。

就像现实世界的足智多谋一样,对话的足智多谋通常意味着做你不想做的事情。追寻别人告诉你的所有含义有时会导致不舒服的结论。描述失败的最好词可能是”否认”,尽管这似乎有点太窄了。描述这种情况的更好方法是说,不成功的创始人有那种来自弱点的保守主义。他们小心翼翼地在思想空间中穿行,就像一个非常年长的人在物理世界中穿行一样。[1]

不成功的创始人并不愚蠢。在智力上,他们和成功的创始人一样能够遵循某人告诉他们的所有含义。他们只是不渴望这样做。

所以难以沟通并不是杀死不成功创业公司的原因。它是潜在缺乏足智多谋的迹象。这才是杀死他们的原因。除了未能追寻告诉他们的含义外,不成功的创始人也会未能追寻资金、用户和新想法的来源。但我有最直接的证据表明有什么不对劲是我无法与他们交谈。

注释

[1] 一位YC合作伙伴写道:

我对那些不好的团队的感觉是,进入办公时间时,他们已经决定了要做什么,我说的每句话都在他们头脑中经过一个内部过程,这个过程要么拼命试图将我说的东西扭曲成符合他们决定的东西,要么直接驳回它并为这样做创建一个合理化。他们可能甚至没有意识到这个过程,但这就是我认为当你对不好的团队说些什么时他们会有那种茫然无神的样子。我不认为这是困惑或缺乏理解本身,而是这个内部过程在工作。

对于好的团队,你可以看出你说的每句话都是用新鲜的眼光看待的,即使被驳回,也是因为一些逻辑原因,例如”我们已经尝试过了”或”从与我们的用户交谈来看,那不是他们想要的”等等。那些团队从来没有那种茫然无神的样子。

感谢

感谢萨姆·奥特曼、帕特里克·克里森、亚伦·伊巴、杰西卡·利文斯顿、罗伯特·莫里斯、哈吉·塔加尔和加里·谭阅读草稿。

A Word to the Resourceful

January 2012

A year ago I noticed a pattern in the least successful startups we’d funded: they all seemed hard to talk to. It felt as if there was some kind of wall between us. I could never quite tell if they understood what I was saying.

This caught my attention because earlier we’d noticed a pattern among the most successful startups, and it seemed to hinge on a different quality. We found the startups that did best were the ones with the sort of founders about whom we’d say “they can take care of themselves.” The startups that do best are fire-and-forget in the sense that all you have to do is give them a lead, and they’ll close it, whatever type of lead it is. When they’re raising money, for example, you can do the initial intros knowing that if you wanted to you could stop thinking about it at that point. You won’t have to babysit the round to make sure it happens. That type of founder is going to come back with the money; the only question is how much on what terms.

It seemed odd that the outliers at the two ends of the spectrum could be detected by what appeared to be unrelated tests. You’d expect that if the founders at one end were distinguished by the presence of quality x, at the other end they’d be distinguished by lack of x. Was there some kind of inverse relation between resourcefulness and being hard to talk to?

It turns out there is, and the key to the mystery is the old adage “a word to the wise is sufficient.” Because this phrase is not only overused, but overused in an indirect way (by prepending the subject to some advice), most people who’ve heard it don’t know what it means. What it means is that if someone is wise, all you have to do is say one word to them, and they’ll understand immediately. You don’t have to explain in detail; they’ll chase down all the implications.

In much the same way that all you have to do is give the right sort of founder a one line intro to a VC, and he’ll chase down the money. That’s the connection. Understanding all the implications — even the inconvenient implications — of what someone tells you is a subset of resourcefulness. It’s conversational resourcefulness.

Like real world resourcefulness, conversational resourcefulness often means doing things you don’t want to. Chasing down all the implications of what’s said to you can sometimes lead to uncomfortable conclusions. The best word to describe the failure to do so is probably “denial,” though that seems a bit too narrow. A better way to describe the situation would be to say that the unsuccessful founders had the sort of conservatism that comes from weakness. They traversed idea space as gingerly as a very old person traverses the physical world. [1]

The unsuccessful founders weren’t stupid. Intellectually they were as capable as the successful founders of following all the implications of what one said to them. They just weren’t eager to.

So being hard to talk to was not what was killing the unsuccessful startups. It was a sign of an underlying lack of resourcefulness. That’s what was killing them. As well as failing to chase down the implications of what was said to them, the unsuccessful founders would also fail to chase down funding, and users, and sources of new ideas. But the most immediate evidence I had that something was amiss was that I couldn’t talk to them.

Notes

[1] A YC partner wrote:

My feeling with the bad groups is that coming into office hours, they’ve already decided what they’re going to do and everything I say is being put through an internal process in their heads, which either desperately tries to munge what I’ve said into something that conforms with their decision or just outright dismisses it and creates a rationalization for doing so. They may not even be conscious of this process but that’s what I think is happening when you say something to bad groups and they have that glazed over look. I don’t think it’s confusion or lack of understanding per se, it’s this internal process at work.

With the good groups, you can tell that everything you say is being looked at with fresh eyes and even if it’s dismissed, it’s because of some logical reason e.g. “we already tried that” or “from speaking to our users that isn’t what they’d like,” etc. Those groups never have that glazed over look.

Thanks

Thanks to Sam Altman, Patrick Collison, Aaron Iba, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, Harj Taggar, and Garry Tan for reading drafts of this.