风险投资糟糕性的统一理论

Paul Graham 2005-03-01

风险投资糟糕性的统一理论

2005年3月

几个月前,我收到一个招聘人员的电子邮件,问我是否有兴趣在一家新的风险投资基金担任”驻场技术专家”。我想这个想法是让风险投资家的乔治·布什扮演卡尔·罗夫的角色。

我考虑了大约四秒钟。为风险投资基金工作?呃。

我对我们初创公司最生动的记忆之一是去拜访著名波士顿风险投资公司Greylock。他们是我一生中遇到的最傲慢的人。而我见过很多傲慢的人。[1]

当然,不是我一个人有这种感觉。甚至我的一位风险投资家朋友也不喜欢风险投资家。“混蛋,“他说。

但最近我一直在了解更多关于风险投资世界如何运作的知识,几天前我突然意识到风险投资家之所以这样是有原因的。并不是说这个行业吸引混蛋,甚至不是他们掌握的权力腐蚀了他们。真正的问题在于他们的报酬方式。

风险投资基金的问题在于它们是基金。像共同基金或对冲基金的管理者一样,风险投资家获得他们管理资金的百分比:每年约2%的管理费,加上收益的百分比。所以他们希望基金规模巨大——如果可能的话,数亿美元。但这意味着每个合伙人最终要负责投资大量资金。而且由于一个人只能管理那么多交易,每笔交易必须达到数百万美元。

这结果解释了创始人讨厌的风险投资家的几乎所有特征。

它解释了为什么风险投资家做决定需要那么长时间,以及为什么他们的尽职调查感觉像身体腔穴检查。[2] 由于风险如此之大,他们必须偏执。

它解释了为什么他们偷你的想法。每个创始人都知道,如果风险投资家最终投资了你的竞争对手,他们会把你的秘密告诉竞争对手。风险投资家在没有意向资助你的时候与你见面,只是为了为竞争对手挖空你的心思,这并非 unheard of。这种前景让天真的创始人笨拙地保密。有经验的创始人将其视为做生意成本。无论哪种方式,这都很糟糕。但同样,风险投资家如此狡猾的唯一原因是他们做的巨额交易。由于风险如此之大,他们必须狡猾。

它解释了为什么风险投资家倾向于干涉他们投资的公司。他们想进入你的董事会不仅仅是为了给你建议,也是为了监视你。他们甚至经常安装新的首席执行官。是的,他可能有丰富的商业经验。但他也是他们的人:这些新安装的首席执行官总是扮演红军部队中政治委员的角色。由于风险如此之大,风险投资家忍不住要微观管理你。

巨额投资本身是创始人会不喜欢的东西,如果他们意识到它们可能造成的损害的话。风险投资家投资x百万美元不是因为那是你需要的金额,而是因为他们的业务结构要求他们投资那么多。像类固醇一样,这些突然的巨额投资可能弊大于利。谷歌之所以能承受巨额风险投资,是因为它能合法地吸收大量资金。他们必须购买大量服务器和大量带宽来爬取整个网络。不那么幸运的初创公司最终只是雇佣大批人开会。

原则上,你可以接受巨额风险投资,把它放在国库券中,并继续节俭经营。你试试看。

当然,巨额投资意味着巨额估值。它们必须如此,否则没有足够的股票留给创始人。你可能认为高估值是件好事。许多创始人确实这么认为。但你不能吃纸。除非你能以某种方式实现业内人士所说的”流动性事件”,否则你无法从高估值中受益,而你的估值越高,这样做的选择就越窄。许多创始人会愿意以1500万美元出售公司,但刚刚以800万美元pre-money估值投资的风险投资家不会同意。无论你喜欢与否,你又在掷骰子了。

回到1997年,我们的一个竞争对手在一轮风险投资中筹集了2000万美元。这在当时超过了我们整个公司的估值。我担心吗?一点也不:我很高兴。这就像看着你追赶的汽车拐进一条你知道是死胡同的街道。

在那时他们最聪明的举动应该是拿2000万美元的每一分钱用来收购我们。我们会卖的。他们的投资者当然会大发雷霆。但我认为他们从未考虑过这一点的主要原因是他们从未想过我们能如此便宜地被收购。他们可能假设我们在和他们乘坐同样的风险投资 gravy train。

事实上,我们整个存在期间只花了大约200万美元。这给了我们灵活性。我们以5000万美元把自己卖给了雅虎,每个人都很高兴。如果我们的竞争对手那样做了,最后一轮投资者大概会赔钱。我假设他们可以否决这样的交易。但那些日子没有人比雅虎支付更多。所以除非他们的创始人能够进行IPO(有雅虎作为竞争对手会很难),他们别无选择,只能让事情恶化下去。

在泡沫期间上市的那些膨胀的公司这样做不仅仅是因为他们被无良的投资银行家拉进去。大多数同样受到风险投资家从另一方面的推动,他们在高估值时投资,使IPO成为唯一的出路。唯一更愚蠢的是散户投资者。所以实际上是IPO或破产。或者更确切地说,IPO然后破产,或者就是破产。

把风险投资家行为的所有证据加起来,结果的人格并不吸引人。事实上,这是典型的恶棍:时而胆小、贪婪、狡猾和专横。

我曾经认为风险投资家就是这样。抱怨风险投资家是混蛋对我来说曾经似乎像抱怨用户不阅读参考手册一样天真。风险投资家当然是混蛋。怎么可能不是呢?

但我现在意识到他们本质上不是混蛋。风险投资家像汽车销售员或官僚:他们工作的性质把他们变成了混蛋。

我遇到过几个我喜欢的风险投资家。Mike Moritz 看起来是个好人。他甚至有幽默感,这在风险投资家中几乎是闻所未闻的。从我读到的关于 John Doerr 的内容来看,他听起来也是个好人,几乎像个黑客。但他们在最好的风险投资基金工作。我的理论解释了为什么他们往往会不同:就像最受欢迎的孩子不必迫害书呆子一样,最好的风险投资家不必表现得像风险投资家。他们能挑选所有最好的交易。所以他们不必那么偏执和狡猾,他们可以选择那些罕见的公司,比如谷歌,这些公司实际上会从他们被迫投资的巨额资金中受益。

风险投资家经常抱怨他们的行业里钱太多追逐交易太少。很少有人意识到这也描述了单个公司层面资金运作方式的缺陷。

也许这是我作为”驻场技术专家”应该提出的那种战略见解。如果是这样,好消息是他们免费得到了它。坏消息是这意味着如果你不是顶级的基金之一,你注定要成为坏人。

注释

[1] 在Greylock将创始人Philip Greenspun赶出ArsDigita后,他写了一篇既有趣且信息丰富的文章。

[2] 由于大多数风险投资家不是技术出身,他们尽职调查的技术方面往往像一个对人体解剖知识有缺陷的人进行身体腔穴检查。一段时间后,我们对风险投资家试图探测我们不存在的数据库开口感到相当疼痛。不,我们不使用Oracle。我们只是把数据存储在文件中。我们的秘密是使用不会丢失我们数据的操作系统。哪个操作系统?FreeBSD。你为什么用它而不是Windows NT?因为它更好而且不花钱。什么,你在使用免费软件操作系统?

这个对话重复了多少次。然后当我们到达雅虎时,我们发现他们也使用FreeBSD并把数据存储在文件中。

中文翻译 日语翻译

A Unified Theory of VC Suckage

March 2005

A couple months ago I got an email from a recruiter asking if I was interested in being a “technologist in residence” at a new venture capital fund. I think the idea was to play Karl Rove to the VCs’ George Bush.\n\nI considered it for about four seconds. Work for a VC fund? Ick.\n\nOne of my most vivid memories from our startup is going to visit Greylock, the famous Boston VCs. They were the most arrogant people I’ve met in my life. And I’ve met a lot of arrogant people. [1]I’m not alone in feeling this way, of course. Even a VC friend of mine dislikes VCs. “Assholes,” he says.But lately I’ve been learning more about how the VC world works, and a few days ago it hit me that there’s a reason VCs are the way they are. It’s not so much that the business attracts jerks, or even that the power they wield corrupts them. The real problem is the way they’re paid.The problem with VC funds is that they’re funds. Like the managers of mutual funds or hedge funds, VCs get paid a percentage of the money they manage: about 2% a year in management fees, plus a percentage of the gains. So they want the fund to be huge— hundreds of millions of dollars, if possible. But that means each partner ends up being responsible for investing a lot of money. And since one person can only manage so many deals, each deal has to be for multiple millions of dollars.This turns out to explain nearly all the characteristics of VCs that founders hate.It explains why VCs take so agonizingly long to make up their minds, and why their due diligence feels like a body cavity search. [2] With so much at stake, they have to be paranoid.It explains why they steal your ideas. Every founder knows that VCs will tell your secrets to your competitors if they end up investing in them. It’s not unheard of for VCs to meet you when they have no intention of funding you, just to pick your brain for a competitor. This prospect makes naive founders clumsily secretive. Experienced founders treat it as a cost of doing business. Either way it sucks. But again, the only reason VCs are so sneaky is the giant deals they do. With so much at stake, they have to be devious.It explains why VCs tend to interfere in the companies they invest in. They want to be on your board not just so that they can advise you, but so that they can watch you. Often they even install a new CEO. Yes, he may have extensive business experience. But he’s also their man: these newly installed CEOs always play something of the role of a political commissar in a Red Army unit. With so much at stake, VCs can’t resist micromanaging you.The huge investments themselves are something founders would dislike, if they realized how damaging they can be. VCs don’t invest xmillionbecausethatstheamountyouneed,butbecausethatstheamountthestructureoftheirbusinessrequiresthemtoinvest.Likesteroids,thesesuddenhugeinvestmentscandomoreharmthangood.GooglesurvivedenormousVCfundingbecauseitcouldlegitimatelyabsorblargeamountsofmoney.TheyhadtobuyalotofserversandalotofbandwidthtocrawlthewholeWeb.Lessfortunatestartupsjustenduphiringarmiesofpeopletositaroundhavingmeetings.InprincipleyoucouldtakeahugeVCinvestment,putitintreasurybills,andcontinuetooperatefrugally.Youjusttryit.Andofcoursegiantinvestmentsmeangiantvaluations.Theyhaveto,ortheresnotenoughstocklefttokeepthefoundersinterested.Youmightthinkahighvaluationisagreatthing.Manyfoundersdo.Butyoucanteatpaper.Youcantbenefitfromahighvaluationunlessyoucansomehowachievewhatthoseinthebusinesscalla"liquidityevent,"andthehigheryourvaluation,thenarroweryouroptionsfordoingthat.Manyafounderwouldbehappytosellhiscompanyforx million because that's the amount you need, but because that's the amount the structure of their business requires them to invest. Like steroids, these sudden huge investments can do more harm than good. Google survived enormous VC funding because it could legitimately absorb large amounts of money. They had to buy a lot of servers and a lot of bandwidth to crawl the whole Web. Less fortunate startups just end up hiring armies of people to sit around having meetings.In principle you could take a huge VC investment, put it in treasury bills, and continue to operate frugally. You just try it.And of course giant investments mean giant valuations. They have to, or there's not enough stock left to keep the founders interested. You might think a high valuation is a great thing. Many founders do. But you can't eat paper. You can't benefit from a high valuation unless you can somehow achieve what those in the business call a "liquidity event," and the higher your valuation, the narrower your options for doing that. Many a founder would be happy to sell his company for 15 million, but VCs who’ve just invested at a pre-money valuation of 8millionwonthearofthat.Yourerollingthediceagain,whetheryoulikeitornot.Backin1997,oneofourcompetitorsraised8 million won't hear of that. You're rolling the dice again, whether you like it or not.Back in 1997, one of our competitors raised 20 million in a single round of VC funding. This was at the time more than the valuation of our entire company. Was I worried? Not at all: I was delighted. It was like watching a car you’re chasing turn down a street that you know has no outlet.Their smartest move at that point would have been to take every penny of the 20millionanduseittobuyus.Wewouldhavesold.Theirinvestorswouldhavebeenfuriousofcourse.ButIthinkthemainreasontheyneverconsideredthiswasthattheyneverimaginedwecouldbehadsocheap.TheyprobablyassumedwewereonthesameVCgravytraintheywere.Infactweonlyspentabout20 million and use it to buy us. We would have sold. Their investors would have been furious of course. But I think the main reason they never considered this was that they never imagined we could be had so cheap. They probably assumed we were on the same VC gravy train they were.In fact we only spent about 2 million in our entire existence. And that gave us flexibility. We could sell ourselves to Yahoo for $50 million, and everyone was delighted. If our competitor had done that, the last round of investors would presumably have lost money. I assume they could have vetoed such a deal. But no one those days was paying a lot more than Yahoo. So unless their founders could pull off an IPO (which would be difficult with Yahoo as a competitor), they had no choice but to ride the thing down.The puffed-up companies that went public during the Bubble didn’t do it just because they were pulled into it by unscrupulous investment bankers. Most were pushed just as hard from the other side by VCs who’d invested at high valuations, leaving an IPO as the only way out. The only people dumber were retail investors. So it was literally IPO or bust. Or rather, IPO then bust, or just bust.Add up all the evidence of VCs’ behavior, and the resulting personality is not attractive. In fact, it’s the classic villain: alternately cowardly, greedy, sneaky, and overbearing.I used to take it for granted that VCs were like this. Complaining that VCs were jerks used to seem as naive to me as complaining that users didn’t read the reference manual. Of course VCs were jerks. How could it be otherwise?But I realize now that they’re not intrinsically jerks. VCs are like car salesmen or bureaucrats: the nature of their work turns them into jerks.I’ve met a few VCs I like. Mike Moritz seems a good guy. He even has a sense of humor, which is almost unheard of among VCs. From what I’ve read about John Doerr, he sounds like a good guy too, almost a hacker. But they work for the very best VC funds. And my theory explains why they’d tend to be different: just as the very most popular kids don’t have to persecute nerds, the very best VCs don’t have to act like VCs. They get the pick of all the best deals. So they don’t have to be so paranoid and sneaky, and they can choose those rare companies, like Google, that will actually benefit from the giant sums they’re compelled to invest.VCs often complain that in their business there’s too much money chasing too few deals. Few realize that this also describes a flaw in the way funding works at the level of individual firms.Perhaps this was the sort of strategic insight I was supposed to come up with as a “technologist in residence.” If so, the good news is that they’re getting it for free. The bad news is it means that if you’re not one of the very top funds, you’re condemned to be the bad guys.Notes[1] After Greylock booted founder Philip Greenspun out of ArsDigita, he wrote a hilarious but also very informative essay about it. [2] Since most VCs aren’t tech guys, the technology side of their due diligence tends to be like a body cavity search by someone with a faulty knowledge of human anatomy. After a while we were quite sore from VCs attempting to probe our nonexistent database orifice.No, we don’t use Oracle. We just store the data in files. Our secret is to use an OS that doesn’t lose our data. Which OS? FreeBSD. Why do you use that instead of Windows NT? Because it’s better and it doesn’t cost anything. What, you’re using a freeware OS?How many times that conversation was repeated. Then when we got to Yahoo, we found they used FreeBSD and stored their data in files too.Chinese TranslationJapanese Translation