我从用户身上学到了什么
我从用户身上学到了什么
2022年9月
我最近告诉Y Combinator的申请者,我能给他们的关于入选的最好建议,按字数计算,是”解释你从用户身上学到了什么”。这测试了很多东西:你是否在关注用户,你对他们的理解程度,甚至他们多么需要你正在制作的东西。
之后我问了自己同样的问题。我从YC的用户,也就是我们资助的初创公司身上学到了什么?
首先想到的是,大多数初创公司都有相同的问题。没有两家有完全相同的问题,但令人惊讶的是,无论他们在制作什么,问题在很大程度上保持不变。一旦你 advising 了100家做着不同事情的初创公司,你很少会遇到以前没见过的问题。
这个事实是使YC运作的原因之一。但我们在开始YC时并不知道这一点。我只有几个数据点:我们自己的初创公司,以及朋友们创办的。相同问题以不同形式反复出现的频率让我感到惊讶。许多后期投资者可能永远不会意识到这一点,因为后期投资者在整个职业生涯中可能不会advising 100家初创公司,但YC合伙人在第一年或第二年就能获得这么多经验。
这是资助大量早期公司而不是少量后期公司的一个优势。你获得大量数据。不仅因为你在看更多的公司,还因为有更多地方会出错。
但知道(几乎)所有初创公司可能遇到的问题并不意味着对它们的advising 可以自动化,或简化为公式。没有办法替代与YC合伙人的个人办公时间。每家初创公司都是独特的,这意味着它们必须由了解它们的特定合伙人来advising。[1]
我们是艰难地学到这一点的,在2012年夏天臭名昭著的”打破YC的批次”中。在那之前,我们将合伙人视为一个整体。当一家初创公司请求办公时间时,他们会得到任何合伙人发布的下一个可用时段。这意味着每个合伙人都必须了解每家初创公司。这在60家初创公司时运作良好,但当批次增长到80家时,一切都崩溃了。创始人可能没有意识到任何问题,但合伙人感到困惑和不高兴,因为他们在批次中途仍然还不了解所有公司。[2]
起初我很困惑。为什么60家初创公司时还好,80家就崩溃了?只多了三分之一。然后我意识到发生了什么。我们使用的是O(n²)算法。所以当然它爆炸了。
我们采用的解决方案是这种情况下的经典解决方案。我们将批次分成更小的初创公司组,每组由专门的合伙人组监督。这解决了问题,并且从此运作良好。但打破YC的批次有力地证明了advising 初创公司的过程必须是多么个性化。
另一个相关的惊喜是创始人在意识到他们的问题方面可以有多差。创始人有时会进来谈论某个问题,而我们会在谈话过程中发现另一个更大的问题。例如(这种情况太常见了),创始人会进来谈论他们在融资方面的困难,在深入调查他们的情况后,原来原因是公司表现不佳,投资者可以看出来。或者创始人会进来担心他们还没有解决用户获取的问题,而原来原因是他们的产品不够好。有时候我问”如果你没有建造它,你会自己使用它吗?“创始人在思考后说”不会”。好吧,这就是你在获取用户方面遇到困难的原因。
创始人通常知道他们的问题是什么,但不知道它们的相对重要性。[3] 他们会进来谈论他们担心的三个问题。一个具有中等重要性,一个根本不重要,还有一个如果不立即处理会杀死公司。这就像看那些恐怖电影,女主角对男友欺骗她深感不安,但对神秘半开的门只是略微好奇。你想说:别管你男友了,想想那扇门!幸运的是在办公时间你可以这样做。所以虽然初创公司仍然以一定的规律性死亡,但很少是因为他们走进了一个包含谋杀者的房间。YC合伙人可以警告他们谋杀者在哪儿。
不是创始人会听。这是另一个大惊喜:创始人经常不听我们的。几周前我和一个已经在YC工作了几批次的合伙人谈话,她开始看到这个模式。“他们一年后回来,“她说,“说’我们真希望当初听了你的话。’”
我花了很长时间才弄明白为什么创始人不听。起初我以为仅仅是固执。这是部分原因,但另一个可能更重要的原因是初创公司的很多事情是反直觉的。当你告诉别人一些反直觉的事情时,对他们来说听起来是错误的。所以创始人不听我们的原因是因为他们不相信我们。至少在经验教会他们之前是这样。[4]
初创公司如此反直觉的原因是它们与大多数人的其他经历如此不同。没有人知道它是什么样子,除了那些做过的人。这就是为什么YC合伙人通常应该自己本身就是创始人。但奇怪的是,初创公司的反直觉性结果是使YC运作的另一个原因。如果它不是反直觉的,创始人就不需要我们关于如何做的建议。
专注对早期初创公司来说双倍重要,因为不仅他们有一百个不同的问题,除了创始人外没有人来解决这些问题。如果创始人专注于不重要的事情,就没有人专注于重要的事情。所以YC发生的本质是找出哪些问题最重要,然后想出解决它们的想法——理想情况下以一周或更少的分辨率——然后尝试这些想法并衡量它们的效果如何。重点是行动,具有可衡量的近期结果。
这并不意味着创始人应该不顾后果地向前冲。如果你以足够高的频率纠正路线,你可以同时在微观尺度上果断,在宏观尺度上谨慎。结果是一个有点蜿蜒的路径,但执行得非常迅速,就像跑卫在球场上的路径。在实践中,回溯比你预期的要少。创始人通常猜对了应该往哪个方向跑,特别是如果他们有像YC合伙人这样有经验的人来检验他们的假设。当他们猜错时,他们很快会注意到,因为他们会在下周的办公时间谈论结果。[5]
导航能力的小幅改进可以让你快得多,因为它有双重效果:路径更短,当你更确定它是正确的时,你可以沿着它走得更快。这就是YC价值所在的地方,帮助创始人获得额外的专注增量,让他们移动得更快。由于快速移动是初创公司的本质,YC实际上使初创公司更像初创公司。
速度定义初创公司。专注使能速度。YC改善专注。
为什么创始人不确定该做什么?部分是因为初创公司几乎按照定义在做新的事情,这意味着没有人知道如何做,或者在大多数情况下甚至不知道”它”是什么。部分是因为初创公司总体上如此反直觉。部分是因为许多创始人,特别是年轻而有雄心的,被训练以错误的方式获胜。我花了好几年才弄明白这一点。大多数国家的教育系统训练你通过破解考试来获胜,而不是实际做它应该测量的任何事情。但当你开始初创公司时,这就不起作用了。所以YC所做的一部分是重新训练创始人停止试图破解考试。(这需要惊人的长时间。一年后,你仍然看到他们回到旧习惯。)
YC不仅仅是更有经验的创始人传递他们的知识。它更像是专业化而不是学徒制。YC合伙人和创始人的知识形状不同:创始人获得YC合伙人拥有的初创公司问题的百科全书式知识是不值得的,就像YC合伙人获得创始人拥有的领域知识深度是不值得的一样。这就是为什么有经验的创始人做YC仍然有价值,就像有经验的运动员有教练仍然有价值一样。
YC给创始人的另一个重要事情是同事,这可能比合伙人的建议更重要。如果你看历史,伟大的工作聚集在某些地方和机构周围:15世纪晚期的佛罗伦萨,19世纪晚期的哥廷根大学,罗斯领导下的《纽约客》,贝尔实验室,施乐PARC。无论你多好,好同事让你更好。确实,非常有雄心的人可能比任何人都更需要同事,因为他们在日常生活中如此缺乏同事。
无论YC有一天是否成功被列入这些著名的集群,都不是因为缺乏尝试。我们非常清楚这个历史现象,并有意识地将YC设计成一个。到这时,说它是伟大初创公司创始人的最大集群已经不是吹嘘了。即使是试图攻击YC的人也承认这一点。
同事和初创公司创始人是世界上两个最强大的力量,所以你会期望将它们结合起来会产生很大的效果。在YC之前,就人们思考这个问题而言,大多数人假设它们不能结合——孤独是独立的代价。这就是我们在1990年代在波士顿创办自己的初创公司时的感觉。我们有几个年长的人可以寻求建议(质量各不相同),但没有同龄人。没有人可以和我们一起抱怨投资者的不当行为,或者一起推测技术的未来。我经常告诉创始人制作他们自己想要的东西,YC当然就是那样:它被设计成正是我们初创初创公司时想要的东西。
我们想要的一件事是能够获得种子资金,而不必四处寻找随机富人。现在这已经成了商品,至少在美国是这样。但好同事永远不会成为商品,因为它们聚集在某些地方的事实意味着它们在其他地方成比例地缺席。
但在它们聚集的地方确实会发生一些神奇的事情。YC晚餐时房间里的能量像我经历过的任何其他事情一样。我们本来会很高兴只有一两家其他初创公司可以交谈。当你有满满一房间时,那就完全是另一回事了。
YC创始人不仅相互激励。他们也相互帮助。这是我学到的关于初创公司创始人最令人高兴的事情:他们在帮助彼此方面可以多么慷慨。我们在第一批就注意到了这一点,并有意识地将YC设计成放大它。结果比大学强烈得多。在合伙人、校友和同批次同学之间,创始人被想要帮助他们并且能够帮助他们的人包围着。
注释
[1] 这就是为什么我不喜欢人们把YC称为”训练营”的原因。它像训练营一样紧张,但在结构上相反。不是每个人都在做同样的事情,而是每个人都在和YC合伙人交谈,弄清楚他们的特定初创公司需要什么。
[2] 当我说2012年夏季批次被打破时,我的意思是合伙人们感觉有什么问题。事情还没有糟糕到初创公司有更差的体验。事实上那批次做得异常好。
[3] 这种情况让我想起研究表明,人们在回答问题方面比判断他们答案的准确性方面要好得多。这两种现象感觉非常相似。
[4] Airbnb人特别善于倾听——部分因为他们灵活和自律,但也因为他们在前一年经历了如此艰难的时期。他们准备好倾听。
[5] 果断性的最佳单位取决于获得结果需要多长时间,而这取决于你正在解决的问题类型。当你与投资者谈判时,可能是几天,而如果你在建造硬件,可能是几个月。
感谢特雷弗·布莱克威尔、杰西卡·利文斯顿、哈吉·塔加尔和加里·谭阅读本文草稿。
What I’ve Learned from Users
September 2022
I recently told applicants to Y Combinator that the best advice I could give for getting in, per word, was “Explain what you’ve learned from users.” That tests a lot of things: whether you’re paying attention to users, how well you understand them, and even how much they need what you’re making.
Afterward I asked myself the same question. What have I learned from YC’s users, the startups we’ve funded?
The first thing that came to mind was that most startups have the same problems. No two have exactly the same problems, but it’s surprising how much the problems remain the same, regardless of what they’re making. Once you’ve advised 100 startups all doing different things, you rarely encounter problems you haven’t seen before.
This fact is one of the things that makes YC work. But I didn’t know it when we started YC. I only had a few data points: our own startup, and those started by friends. It was a surprise to me how often the same problems recur in different forms. Many later stage investors might never realize this, because later stage investors might not advise 100 startups in their whole career, but a YC partner will get this much experience in the first year or two.
That’s one advantage of funding large numbers of early stage companies rather than smaller numbers of later-stage ones. You get a lot of data. Not just because you’re looking at more companies, but also because more goes wrong.
But knowing (nearly) all the problems startups can encounter doesn’t mean that advising them can be automated, or reduced to a formula. There’s no substitute for individual office hours with a YC partner. Each startup is unique, which means they have to be advised by specific partners who know them well. [1]
We learned that the hard way, in the notorious “batch that broke YC” in the summer of 2012. Up till that point we treated the partners as a pool. When a startup requested office hours, they got the next available slot posted by any partner. That meant every partner had to know every startup. This worked fine up to 60 startups, but when the batch grew to 80, everything broke. The founders probably didn’t realize anything was wrong, but the partners were confused and unhappy because halfway through the batch they still didn’t know all the companies yet. [2]
At first I was puzzled. How could things be fine at 60 startups and broken at 80? It was only a third more. Then I realized what had happened. We were using an O(n²) algorithm. So of course it blew up.
The solution we adopted was the classic one in these situations. We sharded the batch into smaller groups of startups, each overseen by a dedicated group of partners. That fixed the problem, and has worked fine ever since. But the batch that broke YC was a powerful demonstration of how individualized the process of advising startups has to be.
Another related surprise is how bad founders can be at realizing what their problems are. Founders will sometimes come in to talk about some problem, and we’ll discover another much bigger one in the course of the conversation. For example (and this case is all too common), founders will come in to talk about the difficulties they’re having raising money, and after digging into their situation, it turns out the reason is that the company is doing badly, and investors can tell. Or founders will come in worried that they still haven’t cracked the problem of user acquisition, and the reason turns out to be that their product isn’t good enough. There have been times when I’ve asked “Would you use this yourself, if you hadn’t built it?” and the founders, on thinking about it, said “No.” Well, there’s the reason you’re having trouble getting users.
Often founders know what their problems are, but not their relative importance. [3] They’ll come in to talk about three problems they’re worrying about. One is of moderate importance, one doesn’t matter at all, and one will kill the company if it isn’t addressed immediately. It’s like watching one of those horror movies where the heroine is deeply upset that her boyfriend cheated on her, and only mildly curious about the door that’s mysteriously ajar. You want to say: never mind about your boyfriend, think about that door! Fortunately in office hours you can. So while startups still die with some regularity, it’s rarely because they wandered into a room containing a murderer. The YC partners can warn them where the murderers are.
Not that founders listen. That was another big surprise: how often founders don’t listen to us. A couple weeks ago I talked to a partner who had been working for YC for a couple batches and was starting to see the pattern. “They come back a year later,” she said, “and say ‘We wish we’d listened to you.’”
It took me a long time to figure out why founders don’t listen. At first I thought it was mere stubbornness. That’s part of the reason, but another and probably more important reason is that so much about startups is counterintuitive. And when you tell someone something counterintuitive, what it sounds to them is wrong. So the reason founders don’t listen to us is that they don’t believe us. At least not till experience teaches them otherwise. [4]
The reason startups are so counterintuitive is that they’re so different from most people’s other experiences. No one knows what it’s like except those who’ve done it. Which is why YC partners should usually have been founders themselves. But strangely enough, the counterintuitiveness of startups turns out to be another of the things that make YC work. If it weren’t counterintuitive, founders wouldn’t need our advice about how to do it.
Focus is doubly important for early stage startups, because not only do they have a hundred different problems, they don’t have anyone to work on them except the founders. If the founders focus on things that don’t matter, there’s no one focusing on the things that do. So the essence of what happens at YC is to figure out which problems matter most, then cook up ideas for solving them — ideally at a resolution of a week or less — and then try those ideas and measure how well they worked. The focus is on action, with measurable, near-term results.
This doesn’t imply that founders should rush forward regardless of the consequences. If you correct course at a high enough frequency, you can be simultaneously decisive at a micro scale and tentative at a macro scale. The result is a somewhat winding path, but executed very rapidly, like the path a running back takes downfield. And in practice there’s less backtracking than you might expect. Founders usually guess right about which direction to run in, especially if they have someone experienced like a YC partner to bounce their hypotheses off. And when they guess wrong, they notice fast, because they’ll talk about the results at office hours the next week. [5]
A small improvement in navigational ability can make you a lot faster, because it has a double effect: the path is shorter, and you can travel faster along it when you’re more certain it’s the right one. That’s where a lot of YC’s value lies, in helping founders get an extra increment of focus that lets them move faster. And since moving fast is the essence of a startup, YC in effect makes startups more startup-like.
Speed defines startups. Focus enables speed. YC improves focus.
Why are founders uncertain about what to do? Partly because startups almost by definition are doing something new, which means no one knows how to do it yet, or in most cases even what “it” is. Partly because startups are so counterintuitive generally. And partly because many founders, especially young and ambitious ones, have been trained to win the wrong way. That took me years to figure out. The educational system in most countries trains you to win by hacking the test instead of actually doing whatever it’s supposed to measure. But that stops working when you start a startup. So part of what YC does is to retrain founders to stop trying to hack the test. (It takes a surprisingly long time. A year in, you still see them reverting to their old habits.)
YC is not simply more experienced founders passing on their knowledge. It’s more like specialization than apprenticeship. The knowledge of the YC partners and the founders have different shapes: It wouldn’t be worthwhile for a founder to acquire the encyclopedic knowledge of startup problems that a YC partner has, just as it wouldn’t be worthwhile for a YC partner to acquire the depth of domain knowledge that a founder has. That’s why it can still be valuable for an experienced founder to do YC, just as it can still be valuable for an experienced athlete to have a coach.
The other big thing YC gives founders is colleagues, and this may be even more important than the advice of partners. If you look at history, great work clusters around certain places and institutions: Florence in the late 15th century, the University of Göttingen in the late 19th, The New Yorker under Ross, Bell Labs, Xerox PARC. However good you are, good colleagues make you better. Indeed, very ambitious people probably need colleagues more than anyone else, because they’re so starved for them in everyday life.
Whether or not YC manages one day to be listed alongside those famous clusters, it won’t be for lack of trying. We were very aware of this historical phenomenon and deliberately designed YC to be one. By this point it’s not bragging to say that it’s the biggest cluster of great startup founders. Even people trying to attack YC concede that.
Colleagues and startup founders are two of the most powerful forces in the world, so you’d expect it to have a big effect to combine them. Before YC, to the extent people thought about the question at all, most assumed they couldn’t be combined — that loneliness was the price of independence. That was how it felt to us when we started our own startup in Boston in the 1990s. We had a handful of older people we could go to for advice (of varying quality), but no peers. There was no one we could commiserate with about the misbehavior of investors, or speculate with about the future of technology. I often tell founders to make something they themselves want, and YC is certainly that: it was designed to be exactly what we wanted when we were starting a startup.
One thing we wanted was to be able to get seed funding without having to make the rounds of random rich people. That has become a commodity now, at least in the US. But great colleagues can never become a commodity, because the fact that they cluster in some places means they’re proportionally absent from the rest.
Something magical happens where they do cluster though. The energy in the room at a YC dinner is like nothing else I’ve experienced. We would have been happy just to have one or two other startups to talk to. When you have a whole roomful it’s another thing entirely.
YC founders aren’t just inspired by one another. They also help one another. That’s the happiest thing I’ve learned about startup founders: how generous they can be in helping one another. We noticed this in the first batch and consciously designed YC to magnify it. The result is something far more intense than, say, a university. Between the partners, the alumni, and their batchmates, founders are surrounded by people who want to help them, and can.
Notes
[1] This is why I’ve never liked it when people refer to YC as a “bootcamp.” It’s intense like a bootcamp, but the opposite in structure. Instead of everyone doing the same thing, they’re each talking to YC partners to figure out what their specific startup needs.
[2] When I say the summer 2012 batch was broken, I mean it felt to the partners that something was wrong. Things weren’t yet so broken that the startups had a worse experience. In fact that batch did unusually well.
[3] This situation reminds me of the research showing that people are much better at answering questions than they are at judging how accurate their answers are. The two phenomena feel very similar.
[4] The Airbnbs were particularly good at listening — partly because they were flexible and disciplined, but also because they’d had such a rough time during the preceding year. They were ready to listen.
[5] The optimal unit of decisiveness depends on how long it takes to get results, and that depends on the type of problem you’re solving. When you’re negotiating with investors, it could be a couple days, whereas if you’re building hardware it could be months.
Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, Jessica Livingston, Harj Taggar, and Garry Tan for reading drafts of this.