为什么创始人友善是安全的
为什么创始人友善是安全的
2015年8月
我最近收到一位创始人的电子邮件,帮助我理解了一件重要的事情:为什么创业公司创始人友善是安全的。
我从小对非常成功的商人有一个漫画式的想法(在漫画中总是男性):一个五十多岁、贪婪、抽雪茄、拍桌子的人,通过行使权力获胜,而且对方式不太挑剔。正如我以前写过的,创业公司最让我惊讶的事情之一是,最成功的创始人中很少有人是这样的。也许其他行业的成功人士是这样;我不知道;但创业公司创始人不是。[1]
我从经验上知道这一点,但我从来没有看到其中的数学原理,直到收到这位创始人的邮件。在邮件中,他说他担心自己心地太软,倾向于免费给予太多。他认为他可能需要”一点反社会人格的剂量”。
我告诉他不要担心,只要他构建的东西足够好,能够通过口碑传播,他就会有一个超线性增长曲线。如果他不擅长从人们那里赚钱,最坏的情况下,这条曲线将是他可能拥有的某个小于1的常数倍数。但任何曲线的常数倍数都是完全相同的形状。Y轴上的数字更小,但曲线同样陡峭,当任何东西以成功创业公司的速度增长时,Y轴会自己解决。
一些例子会让这更清楚。假设你的公司现在每月赚1000美元,你构建的东西非常棒,每周增长5%。两年后,你每月将赚约16万美元。
现在假设你如此不贪婪,只从用户那里提取你可能得到的一半。这意味着两年后你每月将赚8万美元,而不是16万美元。你落后多少?赶上你本可能达到的位置需要多长时间?仅仅15周。两年后,不贪婪的创始人只比贪婪的创始人落后3.5个月。[2]
如果你要优化一个数字,选择的是你的增长率。假设像以前一样,你只从用户那里提取你可能得到的一半,但你能够每周增长6%而不是5%。现在两年后你与贪婪的创始人相比如何?你已经领先了——每月21.4万美元对16万美元——并且迅速拉开距离。再过一年,你每月将赚440万美元,而贪婪的创始人赚200万美元。
显然,一个贪婪会有帮助的情况是增长依赖于此。创业公司与众不同的是通常不依赖于此。创业公司通常通过制作如此棒的东西来获胜,以至于人们向朋友推荐它。而贪婪不仅无助于你做到这一点,可能还有害。[3]
创业公司创始人可以安全友善的原因是,制作伟大的东西是复合的,而贪婪不是。
所以如果你是创始人,这里有一个你可以与自己达成的协议,既能让你快乐,又能让你的公司成功。告诉自己,你可以像你希望的那样友善,只要你在增长率上努力工作以补偿。大多数成功的创业公司无意识地做出了这种权衡。也许如果你有意识地这样做,你会做得更好。
注释
[1] 许多人认为成功的创业公司创始人是由金钱驱动的。事实上,最成功的创始人的秘密武器是他们不是。如果是的话,他们早就接受了每个快速增长的创业公司在上升过程中收到的收购要约。驱动最成功创始人的东西与驱动大多数制造东西的人相同:公司是他们的项目。
[2] 事实上,由于2 ≈ 1.05 ^ 15,不贪婪的创始人总是比贪婪的创始人落后15周。
[3] 可能擅长从客户身上榨取钱的另一个原因是,创业公司通常一开始就亏损,每个客户赚更多钱使得在初始资金耗尽前更容易达到盈利。虽然创业公司因耗尽初始资金然后无法筹集更多资金而死亡非常常见,但根本原因通常是增长缓慢或支出过度,而不是不足以从现有客户身上提取金钱的努力。
感谢Sam Altman、Harj Taggar、Jessica Livingston和Geoff Ralston阅读本文草稿,并感谢Randall Bennett是这么好的人。
Why It’s Safe for Founders to Be Nice
August 2015
I recently got an email from a founder that helped me understand something important: why it’s safe for startup founders to be nice people.
I grew up with a cartoon idea of a very successful businessman (in the cartoon it was always a man): a rapacious, cigar-smoking, table-thumping guy in his fifties who wins by exercising power, and isn’t too fussy about how. As I’ve written before, one of the things that has surprised me most about startups is how few of the most successful founders are like that. Maybe successful people in other industries are; I don’t know; but not startup founders. [1]
I knew this empirically, but I never saw the math of why till I got this founder’s email. In it he said he worried that he was fundamentally soft-hearted and tended to give away too much for free. He thought perhaps he needed “a little dose of sociopath-ness.”
I told him not to worry about it, because so long as he built something good enough to spread by word of mouth, he’d have a superlinear growth curve. If he was bad at extracting money from people, at worst this curve would be some constant multiple less than 1 of what it might have been. But a constant multiple of any curve is exactly the same shape. The numbers on the Y axis are smaller, but the curve is just as steep, and when anything grows at the rate of a successful startup, the Y axis will take care of itself.
Some examples will make this clear. Suppose your company is making 160k a month.
Now suppose you’re so un-rapacious that you only extract half as much from your users as you could. That means two years later you’ll be making 160k. How far behind are you? How long will it take to catch up with where you’d have been if you were extracting every penny? A mere 15 weeks. After two years, the un-rapacious founder is only 3.5 months behind the rapacious one. [2]
If you’re going to optimize a number, the one to choose is your growth rate. Suppose as before that you only extract half as much from users as you could, but that you’re able to grow 6% a week instead of 5%. Now how are you doing compared to the rapacious founder after two years? You’re already ahead—160k—and pulling away fast. In another year you’ll be making 2 million.
Obviously one case where it would help to be rapacious is when growth depends on that. What makes startups different is that usually it doesn’t. Startups usually win by making something so great that people recommend it to their friends. And being rapacious not only doesn’t help you do that, but probably hurts. [3]
The reason startup founders can safely be nice is that making great things is compounded, and rapacity isn’t.
So if you’re a founder, here’s a deal you can make with yourself that will both make you happy and make your company successful. Tell yourself you can be as nice as you want, so long as you work hard on your growth rate to compensate. Most successful startups make that tradeoff unconsciously. Maybe if you do it consciously you’ll do it even better.
Notes
[1] Many think successful startup founders are driven by money. In fact the secret weapon of the most successful founders is that they aren’t. If they were, they’d have taken one of the acquisition offers that every fast-growing startup gets on the way up. What drives the most successful founders is the same thing that drives most people who make things: the company is their project.
[2] In fact since 2 ≈ 1.05 ^ 15, the un-rapacious founder is always 15 weeks behind the rapacious one.
[3] The other reason it might help to be good at squeezing money out of customers is that startups usually lose money at first, and making more per customer makes it easier to get to profitability before your initial funding runs out. But while it is very common for startups to die from running through their initial funding and then being unable to raise more, the underlying cause is usually slow growth or excessive spending rather than insufficient effort to extract money from existing customers.
Thanks to Sam Altman, Harj Taggar, Jessica Livingston, and Geoff Ralston for reading drafts of this, and to Randall Bennett for being such a nice guy.