如何让匹兹堡成为创业中心

Paul Graham 2016-04-01

如何让匹兹堡成为创业中心

2016年4月

(这是我在匹兹堡一个名为Opt412的活动上的演讲。其中大部分内容适用于其他城镇。但并非全部,因为正如我在演讲中所说,匹兹堡比大多数想成为创业中心的地方有一些重要优势。)

要让匹兹堡成为像硅谷这样的创业中心需要什么?我对匹兹堡相当了解,因为我在这里长大,在门罗维尔。我也相当了解硅谷,因为那是我现在居住的地方。你能在这里建立起那种创业生态系统吗?

当我同意在这里演讲时,我以为我无法给出一个非常乐观的演讲。我以为我会谈论匹兹堡可以做什么来成为创业中心,很大程度上是虚拟语气。相反,我要谈论的是匹兹堡能够做什么。

改变我想法的是我在《纽约时报》美食版读到的一篇文章。标题是”匹兹堡青年驱动的食品繁荣”。对大多数人来说,这听起来可能不有趣,更不用说与创业相关了。但读到那个标题让我感到非常振奋。如果我刻意挑选,我想不出一个更有希望的标题。当我读到文章时,我变得更加兴奋。它说”25到29岁的人现在占所有居民的7.6%,比十年前的7%有所上升。“哇,我想,匹兹堡可能是下一个波特兰。它可能成为所有二十多岁的人都想去生活的地方。

几天前我到这里时,我能感觉到不同。我从1968年到1984年住在这里。当时我没有意识到,但在这整个期间,城市都在自由落体。除了各地都发生的向郊区迁移外,钢铁和核工业都在消亡。天啊,现在情况大不相同了。不仅仅是市中心看起来繁荣得多。这里有一种我小时候没有的活力。

我小时候,这是年轻人离开的地方。现在是吸引他们的地方。

这与创业有什么关系?创业公司是由人组成的,而典型创业公司中的人的平均年龄正好在25到29岁之间。

我已经看到一个城市拥有这些人有多么强大。五年前,他们把硅谷的重心从半岛转移到旧金山。谷歌和Facebook在半岛上,但下一代的大赢家都在旧金山。重心转移的原因是人才战争,尤其是程序员方面。大多数25到29岁的人想住在城市,而不是无聊的郊区。所以无论他们喜欢与否,创始人都知道他们必须在城市。我认识多个创始人,他们本来更喜欢住在硅谷 proper,但他们强迫自己搬到旧金山,因为他们知道否则会输掉人才战争。

因此,成为二十多岁人的磁石是一件非常有希望的事情。很难想象一个地方能成为创业中心却不具备这个特质。当我读到关于25到29岁人群比例增加的统计数据时,我感到的兴奋完全和看到创业公司的图表开始从x轴向上攀升时一样。

全国25到29岁人群的比例是6.8%。这意味着你领先0.8%。人口是306,000,所以我们谈论的是约2500人的过剩。这是一个小镇的人口,而这还只是过剩。所以你已经有了一个立足点。现在你只需要扩展它。

虽然”青年驱动的食品繁荣”可能听起来轻浮,但它绝非如此。餐厅和咖啡馆是城市个性的重要组成部分。想象走在巴黎的街道上。你走过什么?小餐厅和咖啡馆。想象开车穿过一些令人沮丧的随机远郊。你开车经过什么?星巴克、麦当劳和必胜客。正如格特鲁德·斯坦因所说,那里没有那里。你可以在任何地方。

这些独立的餐厅和咖啡馆不仅仅是喂养人们。它们让这里有了这里。

所以这是我第一个具体建议,将匹兹堡变成下一个硅谷:尽你所能鼓励这种青年驱动的食品繁荣。城市能做什么?把开办这些小餐厅和咖啡馆的人当作你的用户,去问他们想要什么。我至少可以猜到他们可能想要的一件事:快速的许可流程。旧金山在这方面给你留下了大量超越它们的空间。

我知道餐厅不是主要推动力。主要推动力,正如《纽约时报》文章所说,是便宜的住房。这是一个很大的优势。但”便宜住房”这个短语有点误导。有很多更便宜的地方。匹兹堡的特殊之处不在于它便宜,而在于它是一个你真正想要生活的便宜地方。

部分原因在于建筑本身。我很久以前就意识到,当我还是一个贫穷的二十多岁年轻人时,最好的交易是曾经富有然后变得贫穷的地方。如果一个地方一直富有,它很好但太昂贵。如果一个地方一直贫穷,它便宜但严酷。但如果一个地方曾经富有然后变得贫穷,你可以找到便宜的宫殿。这就是吸引人们来这里的原因。一百年前匹兹堡富有时,住在这里的人建造了大型坚固的建筑。不一定总是最好的品味,但绝对坚固。所以这是成为创业中心的另一个建议:不要摧毁吸引人们来这里的老建筑。当城市正在复苏时,就像现在的匹兹堡,开发商竞相拆除老建筑。不要让这种情况发生。专注于历史保护。大型房地产开发项目不是吸引二十多岁年轻人来这里的原因。它们与新餐厅和咖啡馆相反;它们减少了城市的个性。

经验证据表明,你在历史保护方面不能太严格。城市对此越严格,它们似乎做得越好。

但匹兹堡的吸引力不仅仅是建筑本身。还在于它们所在的街区。像旧金山和纽约一样,匹兹堡幸运地是一个前汽车时代的城市。它不太分散。因为这些25到29岁的人不喜欢开车。他们更喜欢步行、骑自行车或乘坐公共交通。如果你最近去过旧金山,你会忍不住注意到大量的骑自行车的人。这不仅仅是二十多岁年轻人采用的时尚。在这方面,他们发现了一种更好的生活方式。胡须会消失,但自行车不会。无需驾驶就能出行的城市就是更好的城市。所以我建议你尽一切可能利用这一点。与历史保护一样,似乎不可能做得太过。

为什么不把匹兹堡变成全国对自行车和行人最友好的城市?看看你是否能让旧金山相比之下显得落后。如果你这样做,你不太可能后悔。城市对你想吸引的年轻人来说会像天堂。如果他们确实离开去别处找工作,他们会遗憾地离开这样一个地方。 downside是什么?你能想象一个”因变得对自行车太友好而被毁灭的城市”的头条吗?这根本不会发生。

所以假设酷炫的老街区和小餐馆让这里成为下一个波特兰。这足够吗?它将使你处于比波特兰本身好得多的位置,因为匹兹堡有波特兰缺乏的东西:一流的研究型大学。CMU加上小咖啡馆意味着你拥有的不仅仅是喝拿铁的时髦人士。这意味着你有一边喝拿铁一边讨论分布式系统的时髦人士。现在你真的非常接近旧金山了。

事实上,你在一方面比旧金山更好,因为CMU在市中心,但斯坦福和伯克利都在郊区。

CMU能做什么来帮助匹兹堡成为创业中心?成为更好的研究型大学。CMU是世界上最好的大学之一,但想象一下如果它是最好的,每个人都知道这一点,情况会怎样。有很多有抱负的人必须去最好的地方,无论它在哪里。如果CMU是那个地方,他们都会来这里。哈萨克斯坦的孩子会梦想有一天生活在匹兹堡。

成为那种人才磁铁是大学为使自己的城市成为创业中心所能做出的最重要贡献。事实上,这几乎是它们能做出的唯一贡献。

但是等等,大学不应该建立名称中包含”创新”和”创业”等词语的项目吗?不,它们不应该。这类事情几乎总是令人失望。它们追求的是错误的目标。获得创新的方法不是瞄准创新,而是瞄准更具体的东西,比如更好的电池或更好的3D打印。而学习创业的方法是去做,这在学校里是做不到的。

我知道听到大学鼓励创业最好的事情是成为一所伟大的大学,可能会让一些行政人员失望。这就像告诉想减肥的人减肥的方法是少吃。

但如果你想了解创业公司的来源,看看经验证据。看看最成功的创业公司的历史,你会发现它们有机地源于几个创始人构建一些开始时是有趣副业项目的东西。大学在聚集创始人方面很出色,但除此之外,它们能做的最好的事情就是不要干涉。例如,不要对学生和教师开发的”知识产权”声称所有权,并且对推迟入学和请假有宽松的规定。

事实上,大学为鼓励创业所能做的最有效的事情之一是哈佛发明的一种复杂的不干涉方式。哈佛曾经在圣诞节后为秋季学期进行考试。一月初他们有一个叫做”阅读期”的时间,你应该在为考试学习。而微软和Facebook有一个很少有人意识到的共同点:它们都是在阅读期开始的。这是产生那种变成创业公司的副业项目的完美情况。学生们都在校园里,但他们不必做任何事情,因为他们应该在为考试学习。

哈佛可能已经关闭了这个窗口,因为几年前他们将考试移到圣诞节前,并将阅读期从11天缩短到7天。但如果一所大学真的想帮助学生创办创业公司,经验证据,按市值加权,表明它们能做的最好的事情就是什么都不做。

匹兹堡的文化是它的另一个优势。一个城市似乎必须在社会上自由才能成为创业中心,原因很明显。一个城市必须容忍奇怪才能成为创业公司的家园,因为创业公司非常奇怪。你不能选择只允许那些会变成大创业公司的奇怪形式,因为它们都混杂在一起。你必须容忍所有的奇怪。

这立即排除了美国的大部分地区。我很乐观,它不排除匹兹堡。我在这里长大的记忆之一,虽然当时没有意识到有什么不寻常的,是人们相处得有多好。我仍然不确定为什么。也许一个原因是每个人都感觉像移民。当我在门罗维尔还是个孩子时,人们不称自己为美国人。他们称自己为意大利人、塞尔维亚人或乌克兰人。想象一下一百年前这里是什么样子,当时人们从二十个不同的国家涌入。宽容是唯一的选择。

我记忆中匹兹堡的文化是宽容和务实的。这也是我描述硅谷文化的方式。这不是巧合,因为匹兹堡是它那个时代的硅谷。这是一个人们建造新事物的城市。虽然人们建造的东西已经改变,但做这种工作需要的精神是相同的。

所以,虽然拿铁喝着的时髦人士的涌入可能有些方面令人讨厌,但我会不遗余力地鼓励他们。更广泛地说是容忍奇怪,即使达到古怪加利福尼亚人的程度。对匹兹堡来说,这是一个保守的选择:这是回到城市的根源。

不幸的是,我把最艰难的部分留到了最后。成为创业中心还需要一件事,而匹兹堡没有:投资者。硅谷有庞大的投资者社区,因为它有50年的时间来发展一个。纽约有庞大的投资者社区,因为它充满了非常喜欢钱并且能够快速注意到新赚钱方式的人。但匹兹堡两者都没有。吸引其他人来这里便宜的住房对投资者没有影响。

如果投资者社区在这里成长起来,它会以与硅谷相同的方式发生:缓慢而有机地。所以我不会在短期内拥有庞大投资者社区上下赌注。但幸运的是,有三个趋势使这变得不像以前那样必要。一个是创业公司启动成本越来越低,所以你不需要像以前那样多的外部资金。第二个是感谢Kickstarter等事物,创业公司可以更快获得收入。你可以从任何地方在Kickstarter上放东西。第三个是像Y Combinator这样的项目。来自世界任何地方的创业公司都可以去YC三个月,获得资金,然后如果他们想就可以回家。

我的建议是让匹兹堡成为创业公司的好地方,逐渐会有更多的创业公司留下来。其中一些会成功;它们的一些创始人会成为投资者;还会有更多的创业公司留下来。

这不是成为创业中心的快速路径。但它至少是一条路径,这是其他城市很少有的。而且这并不是说你在此期间必须做出痛苦的牺牲。想想我建议你应该做的事情。鼓励当地餐厅,保存老建筑,利用密度,让CMU成为最好的,促进宽容。这些是使匹兹堡现在成为好居住地方的事情。我只是说你应该更多地做这些事情。

这是一个令人鼓舞的想法。如果匹兹堡成为创业中心的道路是更多地做自己,那么它有很好的成功机会。事实上,它可能在其规模的城市中拥有最好的机会。这需要一些努力和很多时间,但如果任何城市能做到,匹兹堡可以。

感谢查理·奇弗和杰西卡·利文斯顿阅读草稿,感谢梅格·奇弗组织Opt412并邀请我演讲。

How to Make Pittsburgh a Startup Hub

April 2016

(This is a talk I gave at an event called Opt412 in Pittsburgh. Much of it will apply to other towns. But not all, because as I say in the talk, Pittsburgh has some important advantages over most would-be startup hubs.)

What would it take to make Pittsburgh into a startup hub, like Silicon Valley? I understand Pittsburgh pretty well, because I grew up here, in Monroeville. And I understand Silicon Valley pretty well because that’s where I live now. Could you get that kind of startup ecosystem going here?

When I agreed to speak here, I didn’t think I’d be able to give a very optimistic talk. I thought I’d be talking about what Pittsburgh could do to become a startup hub, very much in the subjunctive. Instead I’m going to talk about what Pittsburgh can do.

What changed my mind was an article I read in, of all places, the New York Times food section. The title was “Pittsburgh’s Youth-Driven Food Boom.” To most people that might not even sound interesting, let alone something related to startups. But it was electrifying to me to read that title. I don’t think I could pick a more promising one if I tried. And when I read the article I got even more excited. It said “people ages 25 to 29 now make up 7.6 percent of all residents, up from 7 percent about a decade ago.” Wow, I thought, Pittsburgh could be the next Portland. It could become the cool place all the people in their twenties want to go live.

When I got here a couple days ago, I could feel the difference. I lived here from 1968 to 1984. I didn’t realize it at the time, but during that whole period the city was in free fall. On top of the flight to the suburbs that happened everywhere, the steel and nuclear businesses were both dying. Boy are things different now. It’s not just that downtown seems a lot more prosperous. There is an energy here that was not here when I was a kid.

When I was a kid, this was a place young people left. Now it’s a place that attracts them.

What does that have to do with startups? Startups are made of people, and the average age of the people in a typical startup is right in that 25 to 29 bracket.

I’ve seen how powerful it is for a city to have those people. Five years ago they shifted the center of gravity of Silicon Valley from the peninsula to San Francisco. Google and Facebook are on the peninsula, but the next generation of big winners are all in SF. The reason the center of gravity shifted was the talent war, for programmers especially. Most 25 to 29 year olds want to live in the city, not down in the boring suburbs. So whether they like it or not, founders know they have to be in the city. I know multiple founders who would have preferred to live down in the Valley proper, but who made themselves move to SF because they knew otherwise they’d lose the talent war.

So being a magnet for people in their twenties is a very promising thing to be. It’s hard to imagine a place becoming a startup hub without also being that. When I read that statistic about the increasing percentage of 25 to 29 year olds, I had exactly the same feeling of excitement I get when I see a startup’s graphs start to creep upward off the x axis.

Nationally the percentage of 25 to 29 year olds is 6.8%. That means you’re .8% ahead. The population is 306,000, so we’re talking about a surplus of about 2500 people. That’s the population of a small town, and that’s just the surplus. So you have a toehold. Now you just have to expand it.

And though “youth-driven food boom” may sound frivolous, it is anything but. Restaurants and cafes are a big part of the personality of a city. Imagine walking down a street in Paris. What are you walking past? Little restaurants and cafes. Imagine driving through some depressing random exurb. What are you driving past? Starbucks and McDonalds and Pizza Hut. As Gertrude Stein said, there is no there there. You could be anywhere.

These independent restaurants and cafes are not just feeding people. They’re making there be a there here.

So here is my first concrete recommendation for turning Pittsburgh into the next Silicon Valley: do everything you can to encourage this youth-driven food boom. What could the city do? Treat the people starting these little restaurants and cafes as your users, and go ask them what they want. I can guess at least one thing they might want: a fast permit process. San Francisco has left you a huge amount of room to beat them in that department.

I know restaurants aren’t the prime mover though. The prime mover, as the Times article said, is cheap housing. That’s a big advantage. But that phrase “cheap housing” is a bit misleading. There are plenty of places that are cheaper. What’s special about Pittsburgh is not that it’s cheap, but that it’s a cheap place you’d actually want to live.

Part of that is the buildings themselves. I realized a long time ago, back when I was a poor twenty-something myself, that the best deals were places that had once been rich, and then became poor. If a place has always been rich, it’s nice but too expensive. If a place has always been poor, it’s cheap but grim. But if a place was once rich and then got poor, you can find palaces for cheap. And that’s what’s bringing people here. When Pittsburgh was rich, a hundred years ago, the people who lived here built big solid buildings. Not always in the best taste, but definitely solid. So here is another piece of advice for becoming a startup hub: don’t destroy the buildings that are bringing people here. When cities are on the way back up, like Pittsburgh is now, developers race to tear down the old buildings. Don’t let that happen. Focus on historic preservation. Big real estate development projects are not what’s bringing the twenty-somethings here. They’re the opposite of the new restaurants and cafes; they subtract personality from the city.

The empirical evidence suggests you cannot be too strict about historic preservation. The tougher cities are about it, the better they seem to do.

But the appeal of Pittsburgh is not just the buildings themselves. It’s the neighborhoods they’re in. Like San Francisco and New York, Pittsburgh is fortunate in being a pre-car city. It’s not too spread out. Because those 25 to 29 year olds do not like driving. They prefer walking, or bicycling, or taking public transport. If you’ve been to San Francisco recently you can’t help noticing the huge number of bicyclists. And this is not just a fad that the twenty-somethings have adopted. In this respect they have discovered a better way to live. The beards will go, but not the bikes. Cities where you can get around without driving are just better period. So I would suggest you do everything you can to capitalize on this. As with historic preservation, it seems impossible to go too far.

Why not make Pittsburgh the most bicycle and pedestrian friendly city in the country? See if you can go so far that you make San Francisco seem backward by comparison. If you do, it’s very unlikely you’ll regret it. The city will seem like a paradise to the young people you want to attract. If they do leave to get jobs elsewhere, it will be with regret at leaving behind such a place. And what’s the downside? Can you imagine a headline “City ruined by becoming too bicycle-friendly?” It just doesn’t happen.

So suppose cool old neighborhoods and cool little restaurants make this the next Portland. Will that be enough? It will put you in a way better position than Portland itself, because Pittsburgh has something Portland lacks: a first-rate research university. CMU plus little cafes means you have more than hipsters drinking lattes. It means you have hipsters drinking lattes while talking about distributed systems. Now you’re getting really close to San Francisco.

In fact you’re better off than San Francisco in one way, because CMU is downtown, but Stanford and Berkeley are out in the suburbs.

What can CMU do to help Pittsburgh become a startup hub? Be an even better research university. CMU is one of the best universities in the world, but imagine what things would be like if it were the very best, and everyone knew it. There are a lot of ambitious people who must go to the best place, wherever it is. If CMU were it, they would all come here. There would be kids in Kazakhstan dreaming of one day living in Pittsburgh.

Being that kind of talent magnet is the most important contribution universities can make toward making their city a startup hub. In fact it is practically the only contribution they can make.

But wait, shouldn’t universities be setting up programs with words like “innovation” and “entrepreneurship” in their names? No, they should not. These kind of things almost always turn out to be disappointments. They’re pursuing the wrong targets. The way to get innovation is not to aim for innovation but to aim for something more specific, like better batteries or better 3D printing. And the way to learn about entrepreneurship is to do it, which you can’t in school.

I know it may disappoint some administrators to hear that the best thing a university can do to encourage startups is to be a great university. It’s like telling people who want to lose weight that the way to do it is to eat less.

But if you want to know where startups come from, look at the empirical evidence. Look at the histories of the most successful startups, and you’ll find they grow organically out of a couple of founders building something that starts as an interesting side project. Universities are great at bringing together founders, but beyond that the best thing they can do is get out of the way. For example, by not claiming ownership of “intellectual property” that students and faculty develop, and by having liberal rules about deferred admission and leaves of absence.

In fact, one of the most effective things a university could do to encourage startups is an elaborate form of getting out of the way invented by Harvard. Harvard used to have exams for the fall semester after Christmas. At the beginning of January they had something called “Reading Period” when you were supposed to be studying for exams. And Microsoft and Facebook have something in common that few people realize: they were both started during Reading Period. It’s the perfect situation for producing the sort of side projects that turn into startups. The students are all on campus, but they don’t have to do anything because they’re supposed to be studying for exams.

Harvard may have closed this window, because a few years ago they moved exams before Christmas and shortened reading period from 11 days to 7. But if a university really wanted to help its students start startups, the empirical evidence, weighted by market cap, suggests the best thing they can do is literally nothing.

The culture of Pittsburgh is another of its strengths. It seems like a city has to be socially liberal to be a startup hub, and it’s pretty clear why. A city has to tolerate strangeness to be a home for startups, because startups are so strange. And you can’t choose to allow just the forms of strangeness that will turn into big startups, because they’re all intermingled. You have to tolerate all strangeness.

That immediately rules out big chunks of the US. I’m optimistic it doesn’t rule out Pittsburgh. One of the things I remember from growing up here, though I didn’t realize at the time that there was anything unusual about it, is how well people got along. I’m still not sure why. Maybe one reason was that everyone felt like an immigrant. When I was a kid in Monroeville, people didn’t call themselves American. They called themselves Italian or Serbian or Ukranian. Just imagine what it must have been like here a hundred years ago, when people were pouring in from twenty different countries. Tolerance was the only option.

What I remember about the culture of Pittsburgh is that it was both tolerant and pragmatic. That’s how I’d describe the culture of Silicon Valley too. And it’s not a coincidence, because Pittsburgh was the Silicon Valley of its time. This was a city where people built new things. And while the things people build have changed, the spirit you need to do that kind of work is the same.

So although an influx of latte-swilling hipsters may be annoying in some ways, I would go out of my way to encourage them. And more generally to tolerate strangeness, even unto the degree wacko Californians do. For Pittsburgh that is a conservative choice: it’s a return to the city’s roots.

Unfortunately I saved the toughest part for last. There is one more thing you need to be a startup hub, and Pittsburgh hasn’t got it: investors. Silicon Valley has a big investor community because it’s had 50 years to grow one. New York has a big investor community because it’s full of people who like money a lot and are quick to notice new ways to get it. But Pittsburgh has neither of these. And the cheap housing that draws other people here has no effect on investors.

If an investor community grows up here, it will happen the same way it did in Silicon Valley: slowly and organically. So I would not bet on having a big investor community in the short term. But fortunately there are three trends that make that less necessary than it used to be. One is that startups are increasingly cheap to start, so you just don’t need as much outside money as you used to. The second is that thanks to things like Kickstarter, a startup can get to revenue faster. You can put something on Kickstarter from anywhere. The third is programs like Y Combinator. A startup from anywhere in the world can go to YC for 3 months, pick up funding, and then return home if they want.

My advice is to make Pittsburgh a great place for startups, and gradually more of them will stick. Some of those will succeed; some of their founders will become investors; and still more startups will stick.

This is not a fast path to becoming a startup hub. But it is at least a path, which is something few other cities have. And it’s not as if you have to make painful sacrifices in the meantime. Think about what I’ve suggested you should do. Encourage local restaurants, save old buildings, take advantage of density, make CMU the best, promote tolerance. These are the things that make Pittsburgh good to live in now. All I’m saying is that you should do even more of them.

And that’s an encouraging thought. If Pittsburgh’s path to becoming a startup hub is to be even more itself, then it has a good chance of succeeding. In fact it probably has the best chance of any city its size. It will take some effort, and a lot of time, but if any city can do it, Pittsburgh can.

Thanks to Charlie Cheever and Jessica Livingston for reading drafts of this, and to Meg Cheever for organizing Opt412 and inviting me to speak.