刻薄
刻薄
2014年11月
最近我注意到,我认识的最成功的人中很少有刻薄的。有例外,但非常少。
刻薄并不罕见。事实上,互联网向我们展示的一件事就是人们可以多么刻薄。几十年前,只有名人和专业作家才能发表他们的意见。现在每个人都可以,我们都能看到以前隐藏的刻薄的长尾。
然而,虽然外面显然有很多刻薄的人,但在我认为最成功的人中几乎没有。这是怎么回事?刻薄和成功成反比吗?
当然,部分原因是选择偏见。我只认识在某些领域工作的人:创业公司创始人、程序员、教授。我愿意相信其他领域的成功人士是刻薄的。也许成功的对冲基金经理是刻薄的;我不够了解,无法确定。似乎大多数成功的毒枭都很可能是刻薄的。但至少世界上有刻薄人不统治的大块区域,而且这个区域似乎正在增长。
我的妻子和Y Combinator联合创始人杰西卡是那些具有品格X光视觉的罕见人物之一。和她结婚就像站在机场行李扫描仪旁边。她从投资银行业来到创业世界,她一直对成功的创业公司创始人如何一致地证明是好人,以及坏人如何一致地在创业公司创始人中失败感到惊讶。
为什么?我认为有几个原因。一个是刻薄会让你变笨。这就是我讨厌争吵的原因。在争吵中你永远不会做到最好,因为争吵不够普遍。胜利总是取决于情况和涉及的人。你赢得争吵不是通过思考大创意,而是通过思考在特定情况下有效的技巧。然而,争吵和思考真正的问题一样耗费精力。对于一个关心如何使用自己大脑的人来说,这尤其痛苦:你的大脑转得很快,但你却寸步难行,就像车轮空转的汽车。
创业公司不是通过攻击获胜的。他们通过超越获胜。当然有例外,但通常获胜的方法是领先,而不是停下来战斗。
刻薄的创始人失败的另一个原因是他们无法让最优秀的人为他们工作。他们可以雇佣那些因为需要工作而忍受他们的人。但最优秀的人有其他选择。刻薄的人无法说服最优秀的人为他工作,除非他非常有说服力。虽然拥有最优秀的人对任何组织都有帮助,但对创业公司来说至关重要。
还有一种互补的力量在起作用:如果你想建造伟大的东西,被仁慈精神驱动会有帮助。最终变得最富有的创业公司创始人不是那些被金钱驱动的人。被金钱驱动的人接受几乎每个成功创业公司在途中都会收到的大额收购要约。[1] 那些继续前进的人被其他东西驱动。他们可能不会明确这么说,但他们通常试图改善世界。这意味着有改善世界愿望的人具有天然优势。[2]
令人兴奋的是,创业公司不仅仅是刻薄和成功成反比的一种随机工作类型。这种工作是未来。
在历史的大部分时间里,成功意味着控制稀缺资源。人们通过战斗获得这种资源,无论是游牧民族将狩猎采集者驱赶到边缘土地的字面战斗,还是镀金时代金融家相互竞争组装铁路垄断的比喻性战斗。在历史的大部分时间里,成功意味着在零和游戏中成功。在大多数零和游戏中,刻薄不是障碍,反而可能是优势。
这种情况正在改变。越来越重要的是,重要的游戏不是零和的。越来越多的你不是通过战斗来获得对稀缺资源的控制而获胜,而是通过拥有新想法和建造新东西。[3]
长期以来,有些游戏是通过拥有新想法获胜的。在公元前3世纪,阿基米德就是这样获胜的。至少直到入侵的罗马军队杀了他。这说明了为什么这种变化正在发生:为了让新想法变得重要,你需要一定程度的文明秩序。不仅仅是不在战争状态。你还需要防止19世纪大亨相互之间和共产主义国家对公民实施的那种经济暴力。人们需要感觉到他们创造的东西不会被偷走。[4]
对于思想家来说,情况一直如此,这就是为什么这种趋势始于他们。当你想到历史上那些无情的成功人士时,你会想到数学家、作家和艺术家。令人兴奋的是,他们的运作方式似乎正在传播。知识分子玩的游戏正在泄漏到现实世界,这正在逆转刻薄与成功之间关系的历史极性。
所以我真的很高兴我停下来思考这个问题。杰西卡和我一直努力教导我们的孩子不要刻薄。我们容忍噪音、混乱和垃圾食品,但不容忍刻薄。现在我既有额外的理由来打击它,也有额外的论据来使用:刻薄会让你失败。
注释
[1] 我并不是说所有接受大额收购要约的创始人都是只被金钱驱动,而是说那些不接受的人不是。而且,被金钱驱动可能有慈善的动机——例如,照顾家庭,或者能够自由从事改善世界的项目。
[2] 不可能每个成功的创业公司都改善世界。但它们的创始人,像父母一样,真的相信它们做到了。成功的创始人爱着他们的公司。虽然这种爱像人们之间的爱一样盲目,但它是真实的。
[3] 彼得·蒂尔会指出,成功的创始人仍然通过控制垄断致富,只是他们创造的垄断而不是他们捕获的垄断。虽然这基本正确,但这意味着获胜者的类型发生了很大变化。
[4] 公平地说,罗马人并不是故意杀死阿基米德的。罗马指挥官特别命令饶他一命。但他在混乱中还是被杀了。
在足够混乱的时代,甚至思考都需要控制稀缺资源,因为活着本身就是稀缺资源。
感谢Sam Altman、Ron Conway、Daniel Gackle、Jessica Livingston、Robert Morris、Geoff Ralston和Fred Wilson阅读本文草稿。
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Mean
November 2014
It struck me recently how few of the most successful people I know are mean. There are exceptions, but remarkably few.
Meanness isn’t rare. In fact, one of the things the internet has shown us is how mean people can be. A few decades ago, only famous people and professional writers got to publish their opinions. Now everyone can, and we can all see the long tail of meanness that had previously been hidden.
And yet while there are clearly a lot of mean people out there, there are next to none among the most successful people I know. What’s going on here? Are meanness and success inversely correlated?
Part of what’s going on, of course, is selection bias. I only know people who work in certain fields: startup founders, programmers, professors. I’m willing to believe that successful people in other fields are mean. Maybe successful hedge fund managers are mean; I don’t know enough to say. It seems quite likely that most successful drug lords are mean. But there are at least big chunks of the world that mean people don’t rule, and that territory seems to be growing.
My wife and Y Combinator cofounder Jessica is one of those rare people who have x-ray vision for character. Being married to her is like standing next to an airport baggage scanner. She came to the startup world from investment banking, and she has always been struck both by how consistently successful startup founders turn out to be good people, and how consistently bad people fail as startup founders.
Why? I think there are several reasons. One is that being mean makes you stupid. That’s why I hate fights. You never do your best work in a fight, because fights are not sufficiently general. Winning is always a function of the situation and the people involved. You don’t win fights by thinking of big ideas but by thinking of tricks that work in one particular case. And yet fighting is just as much work as thinking about real problems. Which is particularly painful to someone who cares how their brain is used: your brain goes fast but you get nowhere, like a car spinning its wheels.
Startups don’t win by attacking. They win by transcending. There are exceptions of course, but usually the way to win is to race ahead, not to stop and fight.
Another reason mean founders lose is that they can’t get the best people to work for them. They can hire people who will put up with them because they need a job. But the best people have other options. A mean person can’t convince the best people to work for him unless he is super convincing. And while having the best people helps any organization, it’s critical for startups.
There is also a complementary force at work: if you want to build great things, it helps to be driven by a spirit of benevolence. The startup founders who end up richest are not the ones driven by money. The ones driven by money take the big acquisition offer that nearly every successful startup gets en route. [1] The ones who keep going are driven by something else. They may not say so explicitly, but they’re usually trying to improve the world. Which means people with a desire to improve the world have a natural advantage. [2]
The exciting thing is that startups are not just one random type of work in which meanness and success are inversely correlated. This kind of work is the future.
For most of history success meant control of scarce resources. One got that by fighting, whether literally in the case of pastoral nomads driving hunter-gatherers into marginal lands, or metaphorically in the case of Gilded Age financiers contending with one another to assemble railroad monopolies. For most of history, success meant success at zero-sum games. And in most of them meanness was not a handicap but probably an advantage.
That is changing. Increasingly the games that matter are not zero-sum. Increasingly you win not by fighting to get control of a scarce resource, but by having new ideas and building new things. [3]
There have long been games where you won by having new ideas. In the third century BC, Archimedes won by doing that. At least until an invading Roman army killed him. Which illustrates why this change is happening: for new ideas to matter, you need a certain degree of civil order. And not just not being at war. You also need to prevent the sort of economic violence that nineteenth century magnates practiced against one another and communist countries practiced against their citizens. People need to feel that what they create can’t be stolen. [4]
That has always been the case for thinkers, which is why this trend began with them. When you think of successful people from history who weren’t ruthless, you get mathematicians and writers and artists. The exciting thing is that their m.o. seems to be spreading. The games played by intellectuals are leaking into the real world, and this is reversing the historical polarity of the relationship between meanness and success.
So I’m really glad I stopped to think about this. Jessica and I have always worked hard to teach our kids not to be mean. We tolerate noise and mess and junk food, but not meanness. And now I have both an additional reason to crack down on it, and an additional argument to use when I do: that being mean makes you fail.
Notes
[1] I’m not saying all founders who take big acquisition offers are driven only by money, but rather that those who don’t aren’t. Plus one can have benevolent motives for being driven by money — for example, to take care of one’s family, or to be free to work on projects that improve the world.
[2] It’s unlikely that every successful startup improves the world. But their founders, like parents, truly believe they do. Successful founders are in love with their companies. And while this sort of love is as blind as the love people have for one another, it is genuine.
[3] Peter Thiel would point out that successful founders still get rich from controlling monopolies, just monopolies they create rather than ones they capture. And while this is largely true, it means a big change in the sort of person who wins.
[4] To be fair, the Romans didn’t mean to kill Archimedes. The Roman commander specifically ordered that he be spared. But he got killed in the chaos anyway.
In sufficiently disordered times, even thinking requires control of scarce resources, because living at all is a scarce resource.
Thanks to Sam Altman, Ron Conway, Daniel Gackle, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, Geoff Ralston, and Fred Wilson for reading drafts of this.
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