梯子之后

Paul Graham 2005-08-01

梯子之后

2005年8月

三十年前,人们应该沿着公司阶梯一路向上。现在这条规则不那么适用了。我们这一代想要提前获得报酬。我们不再为大公司开发产品以期望获得工作保障作为回报,而是在创业公司中自己开发产品,然后把它卖给大公司。至少我们想要期权。

除其他外,这种转变造成了经济不平等迅速增加的表象。但实际上,这两种情况并不像经济统计中看起来那么不同。

经济统计具有误导性,因为它们忽略了安全工作的价值。一个不会被解雇的轻松工作是值钱的;交换两者是最常见的腐败形式之一。闲职实际上是一种年金。只不过闲职不会出现在经济统计中。如果它们出现了,那么在实践中社会主义国家有显著的财富差距就会很清楚,因为它们通常有一类主要靠资历支付且永远不会被解雇的强大官僚。

虽然不是闲职,但公司阶梯上的职位是真正有价值的,因为大公司努力不解雇人,并且主要基于资历从内部提拔。公司阶梯上的职位价值类似于公司估值中非常真实的”商誉”元素。这意味着人们可以期望未来的高薪工作。

公司阶梯衰落的主要原因之一是始于1980年代的收购趋势。为什么要浪费时间爬一个可能在到达顶峰之前就消失的梯子?

而且,并非巧合的是,公司阶梯是早期公司掠夺者如此成功的原因之一。不仅经济统计忽略了安全工作的价值。公司资产负债表也是如此。将1980年代的公司分割并出售其零件有利可图的原因之一是,它们没有正式承认对那些做过好工作并期望在时机成熟时获得高薪管理职位作为回报的员工的隐性债务。

在电影《华尔街》中,戈登·盖柯嘲笑一家副总裁过多的公司。但该公司可能并不像看起来那么腐败;那些副总裁的舒适工作可能是对早期工作的报酬。

我更喜欢新模式。一方面,将工作作为奖励似乎是个坏计划。很多优秀的工程师因此变成了糟糕的管理者。而且旧制度意味着人们必须处理更多的公司政治,以保护他们在阶梯职位上投入的工作。

新系统的主要缺点是它涉及更多风险。如果你在创业公司而不是大公司中开发想法,在你完成之前,任何数量的随机因素都可能让你沉没。但也许老一辈会嘲笑我说我们做事的方式风险更大。毕竟,大公司内部的项目总是因为高层的任意决定而被取消。我父亲的整个行业(增殖反应堆)就是这样消失的。

无论好坏,公司阶梯的想法可能永远消失了。新模式似乎更具流动性,也更有效率。但在财务上,它的变化比人们想象的要小。我们的父辈没有那么愚蠢。

罗马尼亚语翻译 | 日语翻译

After the Ladder

August 2005

Thirty years ago, one was supposed to work one’s way up the corporate ladder. That’s less the rule now. Our generation wants to get paid up front. Instead of developing a product for some big company in the expectation of getting job security in return, we develop the product ourselves, in a startup, and sell it to the big company. At the very least we want options.

Among other things, this shift has created the appearance of a rapid increase in economic inequality. But really the two cases are not as different as they look in economic statistics.

Economic statistics are misleading because they ignore the value of safe jobs. An easy job from which one can’t be fired is worth money; exchanging the two is one of the commonest forms of corruption. A sinecure is, in effect, an annuity. Except sinecures don’t appear in economic statistics. If they did, it would be clear that in practice socialist countries have nontrivial disparities of wealth, because they usually have a class of powerful bureaucrats who are paid mostly by seniority and can never be fired.

While not a sinecure, a position on the corporate ladder was genuinely valuable, because big companies tried not to fire people, and promoted from within based largely on seniority. A position on the corporate ladder had a value analogous to the “goodwill” that is a very real element in the valuation of companies. It meant one could expect future high paying jobs.

One of main causes of the decay of the corporate ladder is the trend for takeovers that began in the 1980s. Why waste your time climbing a ladder that might disappear before you reach the top?

And, by no coincidence, the corporate ladder was one of the reasons the early corporate raiders were so successful. It’s not only economic statistics that ignore the value of safe jobs. Corporate balance sheets do too. One reason it was profitable to carve up 1980s companies and sell them for parts was that they hadn’t formally acknowledged their implicit debt to employees who had done good work and expected to be rewarded with high-paying executive jobs when their time came.

In the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gekko ridicules a company overloaded with vice presidents. But the company may not be as corrupt as it seems; those VPs’ cushy jobs were probably payment for work done earlier.

I like the new model better. For one thing, it seems a bad plan to treat jobs as rewards. Plenty of good engineers got made into bad managers that way. And the old system meant people had to deal with a lot more corporate politics, in order to protect the work they’d invested in a position on the ladder.

The big disadvantage of the new system is that it involves more risk. If you develop ideas in a startup instead of within a big company, any number of random factors could sink you before you can finish. But maybe the older generation would laugh at me for saying that the way we do things is riskier. After all, projects within big companies were always getting cancelled as a result of arbitrary decisions from higher up. My father’s entire industry (breeder reactors) disappeared that way.

For better or worse, the idea of the corporate ladder is probably gone for good. The new model seems more liquid, and more efficient. But it is less of a change, financially, than one might think. Our fathers weren’t that stupid.

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