融资生存指南

Paul Graham 2008-08-01

融资生存指南

2008年8月

融资是创业的第二难事。最难的事情是做出人们想要的东西:大多数死亡的创业公司都是因为没有做到这一点而死亡。但第二大死亡原因可能是融资的困难。融资是残酷的。

它如此残酷的一个原因仅仅是市场的残酷性。一生中大部分时间都在学校或大公司度过的人可能没有接触过这一点。教授和老板通常对你有一定的责任感;如果你做出了英勇的努力但失败了,他们会给你一个机会。市场则不那么宽容。客户不关心你工作多努力,只关心你是否解决了他们的问题。

投资者评估创业公司的方式是客户评估产品的方式,而不是老板评估员工的方式。如果你做出了英勇的努力但失败了,也许他们会投资你的下一个创业公司,但不会是这个。

但从投资者那里融资比向客户销售更难,因为投资者太少了。没有什么比得上有效的市场。你不太可能有超过10个感兴趣的投资者;很难与更多的人交谈。所以任何一个投资者的行为随机性真的会影响到你。

问题3:投资者非常随机。所有投资者,包括我们在内,按照普通标准都是不称职的。我们不断地对我们不理解的事情做出决定,而且往往是错的。

然而,风险很大。不同类型投资者投资的金额从五千美元到五千万美元不等,但对于任何类型的投资者来说,这个金额通常看起来都很大。投资决策是大决策。

这种组合——对他们不理解的事情做出重大决策——往往使投资者非常神经质。风险投资家以引导创始人而臭名昭著。一些更无耻的人是故意这样做的。但即使是最善意的投资者也可能表现出在日常生活中看起来疯狂的行为方式。有一天他们充满热情,似乎准备当场给你写支票;第二天他们就不回你的电话了。他们不是在和你玩游戏。他们只是下不了决心。[1]

如果这还不够糟糕,这些 wildly fluctuating nodes 都连接在一起。创业投资者都相互认识,并且(尽管他们讨厌承认)他们对你的看法的最大因素是其他投资者的看法。[2] 谈论不稳定系统的配方。你得到了恐惧/贪婪平衡通常在市场中产生的阻尼的相反情况。没有人对一个因为其他人都讨厌而成为”便宜货”的创业公司感兴趣。

所以因为玩家太少而导致的低效市场,因为他们行为不那么独立而加剧。结果是一个像某种原始的多细胞海洋生物的系统,在那里你刺激一个 extremity,整个东西都会猛烈收缩。

Y Combinator 正在努力解决这个问题。我们正在努力增加投资者的数量,就像我们增加创业公司的数量一样。我们希望随着两者数量的增加,我们会得到更像有效市场的东西。当 t 趋近于无穷大时,演示日趋近于拍卖会。

不幸的是,t 仍然离无穷大很远。创业公司现在在我们居住的不完美世界中应该做什么?最重要的事情是不要让融资让你沮丧。创业公司生或死取决于士气。如果你让融资的困难摧毁你的士气,它将成为一个自我实现的预言。

自力更生(= 咨询)

一些可能的创始人现在可能在想,为什么还要与投资者打交道?如果融资如此痛苦,为什么要这样做?

一个答案是显而易见的:因为你需要钱来生活。用创业公司自己的收入来融资原则上是个好主意,但你不能创造即时客户。无论你制造什么,你必须销售一定数量才能收支平衡。将你的销售增长到那个点需要时间,而且在尝试之前很难预测需要多长时间。

例如,我们不能自力更生地建立 Viaweb。我们的软件收费相当高——每个用户每月大约140美元——但至少一年后我们的收入才能覆盖我们微薄的成本。我们没有足够的积蓄维持一年。

如果你排除那些实际上是由创始人通过储蓄或日常工作资助的”自力更生”公司,其余的要么(a)真的很幸运,这很难按需做到,或者(b)开始时是咨询公司,然后逐渐转变为产品公司。

咨询是你可以依靠的唯一选择。但咨询远不是免费的钱。它可能不像从投资者那里融资那么痛苦,但痛苦会分散在更长的时间段内。可能是几年。对于许多类型的创业公司来说,这种延迟可能是致命的。如果你正在处理如此独特以至于没有其他人可能想到的事情,你可以慢慢来。Joshua Schachter 在华尔街工作时逐渐在业余时间建立了 Delicious。他逃脱了惩罚,因为没有其他人意识到这是个好主意。但如果你在 Viaweb 大约同一时间构建像在线商店软件这样明显必要的东西,而且你在业余时间工作,同时将大部分时间花在客户工作上,你并不处于有利位置。

自力更生在原则上听起来很棒,但这个看似 verdant 的领域很少有创业公司能够活着出来。仅仅因为自力更生的创业公司因此而出名这一事实就应该敲响警钟。如果它工作得这么好,那就会是常态。[3] 自力更生可能会变得更容易,因为创办公司正变得越来越便宜。但我认为我们永远不会达到大多数创业公司可以不需要外部资金的地步。技术往往会大幅降价,但生活费用不会。

结果是,你可以选择你的痛苦:要么是融资的短暂尖锐痛苦,要么是咨询的慢性疼痛。对于给定的总痛苦量,融资是更好的选择,因为新技术通常现在比以后更有价值。

但是,虽然对于大多数创业公司来说,融资将是较小的邪恶,但它仍然是一个相当大的邪恶——大到足以轻易杀死你。不仅仅是因为如果你融资失败你可能不得不关闭公司这个显而易见的原因,还因为融资过程本身可以杀死你。

为了生存,你需要一套与说服投资者使用的技术大部分正交的技术,就像登山者需要知道生存技术,而这些技术与实际上下山所使用的技术大部分正交一样。

1. 保持低期望。

融资摧毁这么多创业公司士气的原因不仅仅是因为它很难,而是因为它比他们预期的要难得多。杀死你的是失望。你的期望越低,就越难感到失望。

创业创始人往往是乐观的。这在技术中有时可能工作得很好,但这是接近融资的错误方式。最好假设投资者总会让你失望。收购方也是如此,顺便说一句。在 YC,我们的次要口头禅之一是”交易会失败”。无论你正在进行什么交易,都要假设它会失败。这个简单规则的预测能力是惊人的。

随着交易的进展,会有一种倾向开始相信它会发生,然后依赖它发生。你必须抵抗这一点。把自己绑在桅杆上。这才是杀死你的原因。交易没有像大多数其他人类互动那样的轨迹,在那里共享计划随时间线性巩固。交易经常在最后一刻失败。通常对方直到最后一刻才真正思考他们想要什么。所以你不能使用你对共享计划的日常直觉作为指导。当涉及交易时,你必须有意识地关闭它们,变得病态地愤世嫉俗。

这比听起来更难。当著名的投资者似乎有兴趣资助你时,这是非常令人高兴的。很容易开始相信融资会快速而直接。但几乎从来都不是这样。

2. 继续在你的创业公司上工作。

在融资时继续在你的创业公司上工作,这听起来很明显。实际上这很难做到。大多数创业公司没有做到。

融资有一种神秘的能力,可以吸走你所有的注意力。即使你每天只有一个与投资者的会议,不知何故那个会议会消耗你一整天。它不仅仅是实际会议的时间,还有往返的时间,之前准备的时间和之后思考的时间。

在投资者会议上生存分心的最好方法可能是将公司分开:选择一个创始人处理投资者,而其他人让公司继续运转。当创业公司有3个创始人而不是2个时,这工作得更好,而且当公司的领导者不是首席开发人员时更好。在最好的情况下,公司继续以大约一半的速度前进。

不过,那是最好的情况。公司往往在融资时陷入停顿。这对如此多的原因都是危险的。融资总是比预期需要更长的时间。看起来像是一个2周的中断变成了4个月的中断。这可能非常令人沮丧。更糟糕的是,它可能使你对投资者失去吸引力。他们想要投资于有活力的公司。一个4个月内没有做任何新事情的公司似乎没有活力,所以他们开始失去兴趣。投资者很少理解这一点,但当他们对创业公司失去兴趣时,他们所回应的大部分是他们自己 indecision 造成的损害。

解决方案:把创业公司放在第一位。把与投资者的会议塞进你开发计划的空闲时刻,而不是在投资者会议之间的空闲时刻进行开发。如果你让公司继续前进——发布新功能,增加流量,做交易,被报道——那些投资者会议更有可能富有成效。不仅因为你的创业公司看起来更有活力,还因为它对你的士气更好,而士气是投资者评判你的主要方式之一。

3. 保持保守。

随着情况变得更糟,最优策略变得更加保守。当事情进展顺利时,你可以冒险;当情况不好时,你想安全行事。

我建议像总是进展不好一样接近融资。原因是在你欺骗自己的能力和你面对系统的 wildly unstable nature 之间,事情可能已经或者很容易变得比看起来糟糕得多。

我告诉我们资助的大多数创业公司,如果某个有声望的人以合理的条件向你提供资金,就接受它。有些创业公司忽略了这一建议并逃脱了惩罚——创业公司忽略了好的offer以希望获得更好的offer,并且确实做到了。但在同样的位置,我会再次给出同样的建议。谁知道他们玩的俄罗斯轮盘赌的枪里有多少颗子弹?

推论:如果投资者似乎有兴趣,不要只是让他们坐着。你不能假设对投资感兴趣的人会保持兴趣。事实上,你甚至不能告诉(他们甚至不能告诉)他们是否真的感兴趣,直到你试图将那种兴趣转化为金钱。所以如果你有一个热门的前景,要么现在就完成他们,要么就放弃他们。除非你已经有了足够的资金,否则这归结为:现在就完成他们。

创业公司不是通过获得伟大的融资轮次而获胜,而是通过制造伟大的产品。所以完成融资,回去工作。

4. 保持灵活。

风险投资者会问你两个你不应该回答的问题:“你还在和谁谈?“和”你想筹集多少钱?”

风险投资者不期望你回答第一个问题。他们问它只是为了以防万一。[4] 他们确实期望第二个问题的答案。但我不认为你应该只告诉他们一个数字。不是作为一种与他们玩游戏的方式,而是因为你不应该有一个固定的需要筹集的金额。

创业公司需要固定金额的资金是一种过时的习俗,遗留在创业公司更昂贵的日子里。一个需要建造工厂或雇佣50人的公司显然需要筹集一定的最低金额。但很少有技术创业公司今天处于这种位置。

我们建议创业公司告诉投资者,根据他们筹集的金额,他们可以采取几种不同的路线。少至5万美元可以支付创始人一年的食物和租金。几十万可以让他们获得办公空间,雇佣一些他们从学校认识的聪明人。几百万可以让他们真正把这件事做大。信息(不仅仅是信息,而且是事实)应该是:无论如何我们都会成功。筹集更多钱只是让我们能更快地做到。

如果你在进行天使轮融资,轮次的大小甚至可以即时改变。事实上,最初让轮次小一些,然后根据需要扩大,而不是试图筹集一个大轮次并冒失去你已经拥有的投资者的风险,如果你不能筹集到全部金额的话更好。你甚至可能想要进行”滚动关闭”,在那里轮次没有预定的大小,而是你一个一个地向投资者出售股票,当他们同意时。这有助于打破僵局,因为一旦第一个准备好购买,你就可以开始。[5]

5. 保持独立。

一个有几个二十多岁创始人的创业公司可以有如此低的费用,以至于他们每月只要有2000美元就能盈利。作为公司收入来说,这是微不足道的,但它对你的士气和谈判地位的影响绝对不是微不足道的。在 YC,我们使用”泡面盈利”这个短语来描述你刚赚到足够支付生活费用的情况。一旦你进入泡面盈利,一切都改变了。你可能仍然需要投资才能做大,但你这个月不需要它。

你不能在开始创业公司时计划需要多长时间才能盈利。但如果你发现自己处于这样一种位置,即在销售上多花一点努力就能跨过泡面盈利的门槛,那就去做。

投资者喜欢你处于泡面盈利状态。这表明你考虑过赚钱,而不仅仅是处理有趣的技术问题;这表明你有保持低费用的纪律;但最重要的是,这意味着你不需要他们。

没有什么比一个似乎没有他们也能成功的创业公司更让投资者喜欢的了。投资者喜欢他们能帮助创业公司,但他们不喜欢没有那种帮助就会死的创业公司。

在 YC,我们花很多时间试图预测我们资助的创业公司会如何表现,因为我们正在学习如何挑选赢家。我们已经观察了如此多创业公司的轨迹,以至于我们在预测它们方面变得更好。当我们谈论我们认为可能成功的创业公司时,我们发现自己在说的事情,比如”哦,那些家伙可以照顾自己。他们会没事的。“不是”那些家伙真的很聪明”或”那些家伙在做一个伟大的想法。“[6] 当我们预测创业公司的良好结果时,支持论证中出现的品质是坚韧、适应性、决心。这意味着在某种程度上我们是正确的,这些是你获胜所需要的品质。

投资者知道这一点,至少在无意识的层面上。他们喜欢你不依赖他们的原因不仅仅是因为他们喜欢他们得不到的东西,而是因为那种品质是使创始人成功的原因。

Sam Altman 有它。你可以把他空降到充满食人族的岛上,5年后回来,他会成为国王。如果你是 Sam Altman,你不必是盈利的来向投资者传达无论有没有他们你都会成功。(他不是,而且他确实做到了。)不是每个人都有 Sam 的交易能力。我自己就没有。但如果你没有,你可以让数字为你说话。

6. 不要把拒绝当作个人攻击。

被投资者拒绝可能让你开始怀疑自己。毕竟,他们比你更有经验。如果他们认为你的创业公司很平庸,他们可能是对的,不是吗?

也许,也许不是。处理拒绝的方式是精确地处理。你不应该简单地忽略拒绝。它可能意味着什么。但你也不应该自动气馁。

要理解拒绝意味着什么,你首先必须理解它有多么普遍。从统计上讲,平均的风险投资者是一个拒绝机器。August 的合伙人 David Hornik 告诉我:我的数字最终是收到和阅读大约 500 到 800 份计划,举行大约 50 到 100 次初始的一小时会议,大约 20 家我感兴趣的公司,大约 5 家我认真对待并做了一堆工作,一年内完成 1 到 2 笔交易。所以 odds 对你不利。你可能是一个伟大的企业家,处理有趣的事情等等,但你获得资助的可能性仍然 incredibly 不可能。这对天使投资者来说不太真实,但风险投资者拒绝几乎每个人。他们业务的结构意味着一个合伙人每年最多进行2项新投资,无论有多少好的创业公司接近他。

除了 odds 糟糕之外,正如我提到的,平均投资者是一个相当糟糕的创业公司评判者。评判创业公司比评判大多数其他事情更难,因为伟大的创业公司想法往往看起来是错误的。一个好的创业公司想法不仅仅是好的,还必须是新颖的。为了既好又新颖,一个想法可能必须对大多数人来说看起来是坏的,否则已经有人在做了,它就不会是新颖的了。

这使得评判创业公司比评判大多数其他事情更难。你必须是一个 intellectual contrarian 才能成为一个好的创业投资者。这对风险投资者来说是个问题,他们大多数都不是特别有想象力。风险投资者大多数是钱的家伙,而不是制造东西的人。[7] 天使投资者更善于欣赏新颖的想法,因为大多数都是创始人自己。

所以当你被拒绝时,使用其中的数据,而不是没有的数据。如果一个投资者给你不投资的特定原因,看看你的创业公司,问他们是否正确。如果它们是真正的问题,修复它们。但不要只是相信他们的话。你应该是领域专家;你必须决定。

虽然拒绝不一定告诉你关于你的创业公司的任何事情,但它确实表明你的宣传可以改进。找出什么不起作用并改变它。不要只是想”投资者是愚蠢的。“他们经常是,但要准确找出你失去他们的地方。

不要让拒绝堆积成一个令人沮丧的、无差别的堆。分类和分析它们,然后而不是想”没有人喜欢我们”,你会确切地知道你的问题有多大,以及如何解决它。

7. 能够降级为咨询(如果适合)。

咨询,正如我提到的,是资助创业公司的危险方式。但它比死亡好。它有点像无氧呼吸:对长期来说不是最优解决方案,但它可以挽救你免受即时威胁。如果你在从投资者那里融资方面遇到麻烦,能够转向咨询可能会挽救你。

这对一些创业公司比其他创业公司更有效。对像 Google 这样的公司来说,这不是一个自然的匹配,但如果你的公司正在制作构建网站的软件,你可以通过为客户构建网站来相当优雅地降级为咨询。

只要你小心不要永久陷入咨询,这甚至可能有优势。如果你为他们使用软件,你会很好地理解你的用户。此外,作为一家咨询公司,你可能能够让大用户使用你的软件,而作为一家产品公司你不会得到。

在 Viaweb,我们被迫最初像一家咨询公司一样运作,因为我们如此渴望用户,以至于如果他们注册,我们会提出为他们构建网站。但我们从未对这种工作收费,因为我们不希望他们开始把我们当作真正的顾问对待,每当他们想要在网站上改变什么时就打电话给我们。我们知道我们必须保持一家产品公司,因为只有那才能扩展。

8. 避免没有经验的投资者。

虽然新手投资者看起来不具威胁性,但他们可能是最危险的类型,因为他们如此紧张。特别是与他们投资的金额成比例。从第一次天使投资者那里筹集2万美元可能与从风险投资基金筹集200万美元一样多的工作。

他们的律师通常也没有经验。但虽然投资者可以承认他们不知道自己在做什么,他们的律师不能。一个 YC 创业公司与一个天使协商了一轮 tiny 的条款,只收到他的律师发来的70页协议。而且由于律师永远不会在他的客户面前承认他搞砸了,他反而不得不坚持保留其中的所有 draconian 条款,所以交易失败了。

当然,必须有人从新手投资者那里拿钱,否则就不会有任何有经验的投资者。但如果你这样做,要么(a)自己驱动过程,包括提供文书工作,或者(b)只使用他们来填补由其他人领导的更大一轮。

9. 知道你的立场。

关于投资者最危险的事情是他们的 indecisiveness。最坏的情况是长久的拒绝,即几个月会议之后的拒绝。投资者的拒绝就像设计缺陷:不可避免,但如果你早点发现,成本会低得多。

所以当你与投资者交谈时,不断寻找你立场的迹象。他们可能向你提供条款表的几率有多大?他们首先需要相信什么?你不应该总是直接问这些问题——那可能令人讨厌——但你应该一直在收集关于他们的数据。

投资者倾向于抵制承诺,除非你推动他们这样做。收集最大量的信息同时做出最少数量的决定符合他们的利益。迫使他们行动的最好方法当然是竞争投资者。但你也可以通过集中讨论来施加一些力量:问他们需要回答什么特定问题才能下定决心,然后回答这些问题。如果你克服了几个障碍,他们不断提出新的障碍,假设他们最终会 flake。

你在收集关于投资者意图的数据时必须有纪律。否则他们引导你的愿望会被你希望被引导的愿望结合起来,产生完全不准确的印象。

使用这些数据来权衡你的策略。你可能正在与几个投资者交谈。专注于那些最可能说是的投资者。潜在投资者的价值是他们说是的话会有多好和他们说是的可能性有多大。把最大的权重放在第二个因素上。部分是因为投资者最重要的品质仅仅是投资。但也因为,正如我提到的,投资者对你的看法的最大因素是其他投资者对你的看法。如果你正在与几个投资者交谈,你设法让其中一个超过说是的门槛,这将使其他人更感兴趣。所以如果你专注于热门投资者,你不会牺牲温和的投资者;说服热门投资者是说服温和投资者的最好方法。

未来

我有希望事情不会总是如此尴尬。我希望随着创业公司变得更便宜,投资者数量增加,融资会变得,如果不是容易,至少是直接。

与此同时,融资过程的破损提供了一个大机会。大多数投资者不知道他们有多危险。如果听到从他们那里融资必须被视为对公司生存的威胁,他们会感到惊讶。他们只是认为他们需要再多一点信息来做决定。他们不明白还有其他10个投资者也想要再多一点信息,并且与他们所有人交谈的过程可以让创业公司停顿几个月。

因为投资者不理解处理他们的成本,他们没有意识到潜在竞争对手 undercut 他们有多大的空间。我从自己的经验知道投资者可以决定得更快,因为我们已经把自己的时间缩短到了20分钟(5分钟阅读申请加10分钟面试加5分钟讨论)。如果你投资更多的钱,你会想花更长的时间,当然。但如果我们能在20分钟内决定,任何人应该需要超过几天吗?

这样的机会不会永远未被利用,即使在像风险投资这样保守的行业也是如此。所以要么现有的投资者会开始更快地做决定,要么新的投资者会出现,他们会这样做。

与此同时,创始人必须把融资视为一个危险的过程。幸运的是,我可以在这里修复最大的危险。最大的危险是惊喜。那是创业公司会低估融资的难度——他们会顺利通过所有初始步骤,但当他们转向融资时,他们会发现它令人惊讶地困难,变得沮丧,然后放弃。所以我提前告诉你:融资是困难的。

注释

[1] 当投资者无法下定决心时,他们有时会描述它,好像它是创业公司的一个属性。“你对我们来说太早了,“他们有时会说。但如果他们中的任何一个被时间机器带回 Google 成立的时刻,谁不会以创始人选择的任何估值提供投资?如果它是正确的创业公司,一小时也不算太早。“你太早了”真正的意思是”我们还无法确定你是否会成功。”

[2] 投资者通过直接和间接方式相互影响。他们通过围绕热门创业公司的”buzz”直接相互影响。但他们也通过创始人间接相互影响。当许多投资者对你感兴趣时,它增加了你的信心,使你对投资者更有吸引力。

没有风险投资者会承认他们受到 buzz 的影响。有些 genuinely 不是。但很少有人能说他们不受信心的影响。

[3] 一位阅读这篇文章的风险投资者写道:“我们尽量避免那些通过咨询自力更生获得资金的公司。它创造了很难从公司文化中擦除的非常坏的行为/本能。”

[4] 回答第一个问题的最佳方式是说点名是不合适的,同时暗示你正在与一堆其他风险投资者交谈,他们都即将给你条款表。如果你是那种理解如何做到这一点的人,继续前进。如果不是,甚至不要尝试。没有什么比笨拙地操纵他们更让风险投资者烦恼的了。

[5] 即时扩展一轮的缺点是估值在开始时固定,所以如果你突然获得兴趣激增,你可能不得不决定是在拒绝一些投资者之间,还是卖出比你打算的更多的公司股份。然而,这是一个好问题。

[6] 我不是说智力在创业公司中不重要。我们只比较 YC 创业公司,他们已经超过了一定的门槛。

[7] 但不是所有都是。虽然大多数风险投资者本质上是西装,但最成功的那些往往不是。奇怪的是,最好的风险投资者往往是最不像风险投资者的。

感谢 Trevor Blackwell、David Hornik、Jessica Livingston、Robert Morris 和 Fred Wilson 阅读本文的草稿。

A Fundraising Survival Guide

August 2008

Raising money is the second hardest part of starting a startup. The hardest part is making something people want: most startups that die, die because they didn’t do that. But the second biggest cause of death is probably the difficulty of raising money. Fundraising is brutal.

One reason it’s so brutal is simply the brutality of markets. People who’ve spent most of their lives in schools or big companies may not have been exposed to that. Professors and bosses usually feel some sense of responsibility toward you; if you make a valiant effort and fail, they’ll cut you a break. Markets are less forgiving. Customers don’t care how hard you worked, only whether you solved their problems.

Investors evaluate startups the way customers evaluate products, not the way bosses evaluate employees. If you’re making a valiant effort and failing, maybe they’ll invest in your next startup, but not this one.

But raising money from investors is harder than selling to customers, because there are so few of them. There’s nothing like an efficient market. You’re unlikely to have more than 10 who are interested; it’s difficult to talk to more. So the randomness of any one investor’s behavior can really affect you.

Problem number 3: investors are very random. All investors, including us, are by ordinary standards incompetent. We constantly have to make decisions about things we don’t understand, and more often than not we’re wrong.

And yet a lot is at stake. The amounts invested by different types of investors vary from five thousand dollars to fifty million, but the amount usually seems large for whatever type of investor it is. Investment decisions are big decisions.

That combination—making big decisions about things they don’t understand—tends to make investors very skittish. VCs are notorious for leading founders on. Some of the more unscrupulous do it deliberately. But even the most well-intentioned investors can behave in a way that would seem crazy in everyday life. One day they’re full of enthusiasm and seem ready to write you a check on the spot; the next they won’t return your phone calls. They’re not playing games with you. They just can’t make up their minds. [1]

If that weren’t bad enough, these wildly fluctuating nodes are all linked together. Startup investors all know one another, and (though they hate to admit it) the biggest factor in their opinion of you is the opinion of other investors. [2] Talk about a recipe for an unstable system. You get the opposite of the damping that the fear/greed balance usually produces in markets. No one is interested in a startup that’s a “bargain” because everyone else hates it.

So the inefficient market you get because there are so few players is exacerbated by the fact that they act less than independently. The result is a system like some kind of primitive, multi-celled sea creature, where you irritate one extremity and the whole thing contracts violently.

Y Combinator is working to fix this. We’re trying to increase the number of investors just as we’re increasing the number of startups. We hope that as the number of both increases we’ll get something more like an efficient market. As t approaches infinity, Demo Day approaches an auction.

Unfortunately, t is still very far from infinity. What does a startup do now, in the imperfect world we currently inhabit? The most important thing is not to let fundraising get you down. Startups live or die on morale. If you let the difficulty of raising money destroy your morale, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Bootstrapping (= Consulting)

Some would-be founders may by now be thinking, why deal with investors at all? If raising money is so painful, why do it?

One answer to that is obvious: because you need money to live on. It’s a fine idea in principle to finance your startup with its own revenues, but you can’t create instant customers. Whatever you make, you have to sell a certain amount to break even. It will take time to grow your sales to that point, and it’s hard to predict, till you try, how long it will take.

We could not have bootstrapped Viaweb, for example. We charged quite a lot for our software—about $140 per user per month—but it was at least a year before our revenues would have covered even our paltry costs. We didn’t have enough saved to live on for a year.

If you factor out the “bootstrapped” companies that were actually funded by their founders through savings or a day job, the remainder either (a) got really lucky, which is hard to do on demand, or (b) began life as consulting companies and gradually transformed themselves into product companies.

Consulting is the only option you can count on. But consulting is far from free money. It’s not as painful as raising money from investors, perhaps, but the pain is spread over a longer period. Years, probably. And for many types of startup, that delay could be fatal. If you’re working on something so unusual that no one else is likely to think of it, you can take your time. Joshua Schachter gradually built Delicious on the side while working on Wall Street. He got away with it because no one else realized it was a good idea. But if you were building something as obviously necessary as online store software at about the same time as Viaweb, and you were working on it on the side while spending most of your time on client work, you were not in a good position.

Bootstrapping sounds great in principle, but this apparently verdant territory is one from which few startups emerge alive. The mere fact that bootstrapped startups tend to be famous on that account should set off alarm bells. If it worked so well, it would be the norm. [3] Bootstrapping may get easier, because starting a company is getting cheaper. But I don’t think we’ll ever reach the point where most startups can do without outside funding. Technology tends to get dramatically cheaper, but living expenses don’t.

The upshot is, you can choose your pain: either the short, sharp pain of raising money, or the chronic ache of consulting. For a given total amount of pain, raising money is the better choice, because new technology is usually more valuable now than later.

But although for most startups raising money will be the lesser evil, it’s still a pretty big evil—so big that it can easily kill you. Not merely in the obvious sense that if you fail to raise money you might have to shut the company down, but because the process of raising money itself can kill you.

To survive it you need a set of techniques mostly orthogonal to the ones used in convincing investors, just as mountain climbers need to know survival techniques that are mostly orthogonal to those used in physically getting up and down mountains.

1. Have low expectations.

The reason raising money destroys so many startups’ morale is not simply that it’s hard, but that it’s so much harder than they expected. What kills you is the disappointment. And the lower your expectations, the harder it is to be disappointed.

Startup founders tend to be optimistic. This can work well in technology, at least some of the time, but it’s the wrong way to approach raising money. Better to assume investors will always let you down. Acquirers too, while we’re at it. At YC one of our secondary mantras is “Deals fall through.” No matter what deal you have going on, assume it will fall through. The predictive power of this simple rule is amazing.

There will be a tendency, as a deal progresses, to start to believe it will happen, and then to depend on it happening. You must resist this. Tie yourself to the mast. This is what kills you. Deals do not have a trajectory like most other human interactions, where shared plans solidify linearly over time. Deals often fall through at the last moment. Often the other party doesn’t really think about what they want till the last moment. So you can’t use your everyday intuitions about shared plans as a guide. When it comes to deals, you have to consciously turn them off and become pathologically cynical.

This is harder to do than it sounds. It’s very flattering when eminent investors seem interested in funding you. It’s easy to start to believe that raising money will be quick and straightforward. But it hardly ever is.

2. Keep working on your startup.

It sounds obvious to say that you should keep working on your startup while raising money. Actually this is hard to do. Most startups don’t manage to.

Raising money has a mysterious capacity to suck up all your attention. Even if you only have one meeting a day with investors, somehow that one meeting will burn up your whole day. It costs not just the time of the actual meeting, but the time getting there and back, and the time preparing for it beforehand and thinking about it afterward.

The best way to survive the distraction of meeting with investors is probably to partition the company: to pick one founder to deal with investors while the others keep the company going. This works better when a startup has 3 founders than 2, and better when the leader of the company is not also the lead developer. In the best case, the company keeps moving forward at about half speed.

That’s the best case, though. More often than not the company comes to a standstill while raising money. And that is dangerous for so many reasons. Raising money always takes longer than you expect. What seems like it’s going to be a 2 week interruption turns into a 4 month interruption. That can be very demoralizing. And worse still, it can make you less attractive to investors. They want to invest in companies that are dynamic. A company that hasn’t done anything new in 4 months doesn’t seem dynamic, so they start to lose interest. Investors rarely grasp this, but much of what they’re responding to when they lose interest in a startup is the damage done by their own indecision.

The solution: put the startup first. Fit meetings with investors into the spare moments in your development schedule, rather than doing development in the spare moments between meetings with investors. If you keep the company moving forward—releasing new features, increasing traffic, doing deals, getting written about—those investor meetings are more likely to be productive. Not just because your startup will seem more alive, but also because it will be better for your own morale, which is one of the main ways investors judge you.

3. Be conservative.

As conditions get worse, the optimal strategy becomes more conservative. When things go well you can take risks; when things are bad you want to play it safe.

I advise approaching fundraising as if it were always going badly. The reason is that between your ability to delude yourself and the wildly unstable nature of the system you’re dealing with, things probably either already are or could easily become much worse than they seem.

What I tell most startups we fund is that if someone reputable offers you funding on reasonable terms, take it. There have been startups that ignored this advice and got away with it—startups that ignored a good offer in the hope of getting a better one, and actually did. But in the same position I’d give the same advice again. Who knows how many bullets were in the gun they were playing Russian roulette with?

Corollary: if an investor seems interested, don’t just let them sit. You can’t assume someone interested in investing will stay interested. In fact, you can’t even tell (they can’t even tell) if they’re really interested till you try to convert that interest into money. So if you have hot prospect, either close them now or write them off. And unless you already have enough funding, that reduces to: close them now.

Startups don’t win by getting great funding rounds, but by making great products. So finish raising money and get back to work.

4. Be flexible.

There are two questions VCs ask that you shouldn’t answer: “Who else are you talking to?” and “How much are you trying to raise?”

VCs don’t expect you to answer the first question. They ask it just in case. [4] They do seem to expect an answer to the second. But I don’t think you should just tell them a number. Not as a way to play games with them, but because you shouldn’t have a fixed amount you need to raise.

The custom of a startup needing a fixed amount of funding is an obsolete one left over from the days when startups were more expensive. A company that needed to build a factory or hire 50 people obviously needed to raise a certain minimum amount. But few technology startups are in that position today.

We advise startups to tell investors there are several different routes they could take depending on how much they raised. As little as $50k could pay for food and rent for the founders for a year. A couple hundred thousand would let them get office space and hire some smart people they know from school. A couple million would let them really blow this thing out. The message (and not just the message, but the fact) should be: we’re going to succeed no matter what. Raising more money just lets us do it faster.

If you’re raising an angel round, the size of the round can even change on the fly. In fact, it’s just as well to make the round small initially, then expand as needed, rather than trying to raise a large round and risk losing the investors you already have if you can’t raise the full amount. You may even want to do a “rolling close,” where the round has no predetermined size, but instead you sell stock to investors one at a time as they say yes. That helps break deadlocks, because you can start as soon as the first one is ready to buy. [5]

5. Be independent.

A startup with a couple founders in their early twenties can have expenses so low that they could be profitable on as little as $2000 per month. That’s negligible as corporate revenues go, but the effect on your morale and your bargaining position is anything but. At YC we use the phrase “ramen profitable” to describe the situation where you’re making just enough to pay your living expenses. Once you cross into ramen profitable, everything changes. You may still need investment to make it big, but you don’t need it this month.

You can’t plan when you start a startup how long it will take to become profitable. But if you find yourself in a position where a little more effort expended on sales would carry you over the threshold of ramen profitable, do it.

Investors like it when you’re ramen profitable. It shows you’ve thought about making money, instead of just working on amusing technical problems; it shows you have the discipline to keep your expenses low; but above all, it means you don’t need them.

There is nothing investors like more than a startup that seems like it’s going to succeed even without them. Investors like it when they can help a startup, but they don’t like startups that would die without that help.

At YC we spend a lot of time trying to predict how the startups we’ve funded will do, because we’re trying to learn how to pick winners. We’ve now watched the trajectories of so many startups that we’re getting better at predicting them. And when we’re talking about startups we think are likely to succeed, what we find ourselves saying is things like “Oh, those guys can take care of themselves. They’ll be fine.” Not “those guys are really smart” or “those guys are working on a great idea.” [6] When we predict good outcomes for startups, the qualities that come up in the supporting arguments are toughness, adaptability, determination. Which means to the extent we’re correct, those are the qualities you need to win.

Investors know this, at least unconsciously. The reason they like it when you don’t need them is not simply that they like what they can’t have, but because that quality is what makes founders succeed.

Sam Altman has it. You could parachute him into an island full of cannibals and come back in 5 years and he’d be the king. If you’re Sam Altman, you don’t have to be profitable to convey to investors that you’ll succeed with or without them. (He wasn’t, and he did.) Not everyone has Sam’s deal-making ability. I myself don’t. But if you don’t, you can let the numbers speak for you.

6. Don’t take rejection personally.

Getting rejected by investors can make you start to doubt yourself. After all, they’re more experienced than you. If they think your startup is lame, aren’t they probably right?

Maybe, maybe not. The way to handle rejection is with precision. You shouldn’t simply ignore rejection. It might mean something. But you shouldn’t automatically get demoralized either.

To understand what rejection means, you have to understand first of all how common it is. Statistically, the average VC is a rejection machine. David Hornik, a partner at August, told me: The numbers for me ended up being something like 500 to 800 plans received and read, somewhere between 50 and 100 initial 1 hour meetings held, about 20 companies that I got interested in, about 5 that I got serious about and did a bunch of work, 1 to 2 deals done in a year. So the odds are against you. You may be a great entrepreneur, working on interesting stuff, etc. but it is still incredibly unlikely that you get funded. This is less true with angels, but VCs reject practically everyone. The structure of their business means a partner does at most 2 new investments a year, no matter how many good startups approach him.

In addition to the odds being terrible, the average investor is, as I mentioned, a pretty bad judge of startups. It’s harder to judge startups than most other things, because great startup ideas tend to seem wrong. A good startup idea has to be not just good but novel. And to be both good and novel, an idea probably has to seem bad to most people, or someone would already be doing it and it wouldn’t be novel.

That makes judging startups harder than most other things one judges. You have to be an intellectual contrarian to be a good startup investor. That’s a problem for VCs, most of whom are not particularly imaginative. VCs are mostly money guys, not people who make things. [7] Angels are better at appreciating novel ideas, because most were founders themselves.

So when you get a rejection, use the data that’s in it, and not what’s not. If an investor gives you specific reasons for not investing, look at your startup and ask if they’re right. If they’re real problems, fix them. But don’t just take their word for it. You’re supposed to be the domain expert; you have to decide.

Though a rejection doesn’t necessarily tell you anything about your startup, it does suggest your pitch could be improved. Figure out what’s not working and change it. Don’t just think “investors are stupid.” Often they are, but figure out precisely where you lose them.

Don’t let rejections pile up as a depressing, undifferentiated heap. Sort them and analyze them, and then instead of thinking “no one likes us,” you’ll know precisely how big a problem you have, and what to do about it.

7. Be able to downshift into consulting (if appropriate).

Consulting, as I mentioned, is a dangerous way to finance a startup. But it’s better than dying. It’s a bit like anaerobic respiration: not the optimum solution for the long term, but it can save you from an immediate threat. If you’re having trouble raising money from investors at all, it could save you to be able to shift toward consulting.

This works better for some startups than others. It wouldn’t have been a natural fit for, say, Google, but if your company was making software for building web sites, you could degrade fairly gracefully into consulting by building sites for clients with it.

So long as you were careful not to get sucked permanently into consulting, this could even have advantages. You’d understand your users well if you were using the software for them. Plus as a consulting company you might be able to get big-name users using your software that you wouldn’t have gotten as a product company.

At Viaweb we were forced to operate like a consulting company initially, because we were so desperate for users that we’d offer to build merchants’ sites for them if they’d sign up. But we never charged for such work, because we didn’t want them to start treating us like actual consultants, and calling us every time they wanted something changed on their site. We knew we had to stay a product company, because only that scales.

8. Avoid inexperienced investors.

Though novice investors seem unthreatening they can be the most dangerous sort, because they’re so nervous. Especially in proportion to the amount they invest. Raising 20,000fromafirsttimeangelinvestorcanbeasmuchworkasraising20,000 from a first-time angel investor can be as much work as raising 2 million from a VC fund.

Their lawyers are generally inexperienced too. But while the investors can admit they don’t know what they’re doing, their lawyers can’t. One YC startup negotiated terms for a tiny round with an angel, only to receive a 70-page agreement from his lawyer. And since the lawyer could never admit, in front of his client, that he’d screwed up, he instead had to insist on retaining all the draconian terms in it, so the deal fell through.

Of course, someone has to take money from novice investors, or there would never be any experienced ones. But if you do, either (a) drive the process yourself, including supplying the paperwork, or (b) use them only to fill up a larger round led by someone else.

9. Know where you stand.

The most dangerous thing about investors is their indecisiveness. The worst case scenario is the long no, the no that comes after months of meetings. Rejections from investors are like design flaws: inevitable, but much less costly if you discover them early.

So while you’re talking to investors, constantly look for signs of where you stand. How likely are they to offer you a term sheet? What do they have to be convinced of first? You shouldn’t necessarily always be asking these questions outright—that could get annoying—but you should always be collecting data about them.

Investors tend to resist committing except to the extent you push them to. It’s in their interest to collect the maximum amount of information while making the minimum number of decisions. The best way to force them to act is, of course, competing investors. But you can also apply some force by focusing the discussion: by asking what specific questions they need answered to make up their minds, and then answering them. If you get through several obstacles and they keep raising new ones, assume that ultimately they’re going to flake.

You have to be disciplined when collecting data about investors’ intentions. Otherwise their desire to lead you on will combine with your own desire to be led on to produce completely inaccurate impressions.

Use the data to weight your strategy. You’ll probably be talking to several investors. Focus on the ones that are most likely to say yes. The value of a potential investor is a combination of how good it would be if they said yes, and how likely they are to say it. Put the most weight on the second factor. Partly because the most important quality in an investor is simply investing. But also because, as I mentioned, the biggest factor in investors’ opinion of you is other investors’ opinion of you. If you’re talking to several investors and you manage to get one over the threshold of saying yes, it will make the others much more interested. So you’re not sacrificing the lukewarm investors if you focus on the hot ones; convincing the hot investors is the best way to convince the lukewarm ones.

Future

I’m hopeful things won’t always be so awkward. I hope that as startups get cheaper and the number of investors increases, raising money will become, if not easy, at least straightforward.

In the meantime, the brokenness of the funding process offers a big opportunity. Most investors have no idea how dangerous they are. They’d be surprised to hear that raising money from them is something that has to be treated as a threat to a company’s survival. They just think they need a little more information to make up their minds. They don’t get that there are 10 other investors who also want a little more information, and that the process of talking to them all can bring a startup to a standstill for months.

Because investors don’t understand the cost of dealing with them, they don’t realize how much room there is for a potential competitor to undercut them. I know from my own experience how much faster investors could decide, because we’ve brought our own time down to 20 minutes (5 minutes of reading an application plus a 10 minute interview plus 5 minutes of discussion). If you were investing more money you’d want to take longer, of course. But if we can decide in 20 minutes, should it take anyone longer than a couple days?

Opportunities like this don’t sit unexploited forever, even in an industry as conservative as venture capital. So either existing investors will start to make up their minds faster, or new investors will emerge who do.

In the meantime founders have to treat raising money as a dangerous process. Fortunately, I can fix the biggest danger right here. The biggest danger is surprise. It’s that startups will underestimate the difficulty of raising money—that they’ll cruise through all the initial steps, but when they turn to raising money they’ll find it surprisingly hard, get demoralized, and give up. So I’m telling you in advance: raising money is hard.

Notes

[1] When investors can’t make up their minds, they sometimes describe it as if it were a property of the startup. “You’re too early for us,” they sometimes say. But which of them, if they were taken back in a time machine to the hour Google was founded, wouldn’t offer to invest at any valuation the founders chose? An hour old is not too early if it’s the right startup. What “you’re too early” really means is “we can’t figure out yet whether you’ll succeed.”

[2] Investors influence one another both directly and indirectly. They influence one another directly through the “buzz” that surrounds a hot startup. But they also influence one another indirectly through the founders. When a lot of investors are interested in you, it increases your confidence in a way that makes you much more attractive to investors.

No VC will admit they’re influenced by buzz. Some genuinely aren’t. But there are few who can say they’re not influenced by confidence.

[3] One VC who read this essay wrote:“We try to avoid companies that got bootstrapped with consulting. It creates very bad behaviors/instincts that are hard to erase from a company’s culture.”

[4] The optimal way to answer the first question is to say that it would be improper to name names, while simultaneously implying that you’re talking to a bunch of other VCs who are all about to give you term sheets. If you’re the sort of person who understands how to do that, go ahead. If not, don’t even try. Nothing annoys VCs more than clumsy efforts to manipulate them.

[5] The disadvantage of expanding a round on the fly is that the valuation is fixed at the start, so if you get a sudden rush of interest, you may have to decide between turning some investors away and selling more of the company than you meant to. That’s a good problem to have, however.

[6] I wouldn’t say that intelligence doesn’t matter in startups. We’re only comparing YC startups, who’ve already made it over a certain threshold.

[7] But not all are. Though most VCs are suits at heart, the most successful ones tend not to be. Oddly enough, the best VCs tend to be the least VC-like.

Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, David Hornik, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, and Fred Wilson for reading drafts of this.