如何成为天使投资人

Paul Graham 2009-03-01

如何成为天使投资人

2009年3月

(本文源自于AngelConf会议的演讲。)

1998年我们卖掉创业公司时,我想有一天我会做一些天使投资。七年后我仍然没有开始。我推迟是因为它看起来神秘而复杂。结果证明它比我想象的要容易,而且也更有趣。

我认为困难的部分,投资的机制,其实并不是。你给创业公司钱,他们给你股票。你可能会得到优先股,这意味着拥有额外权利的股票,比如在出售时优先拿回你的钱,或者可转换债券,这意味着(在纸上)你在借钱给公司,债务在下一个足够大的融资轮时转换为股票。[1]

使用其中一个有时有小的战术优势。可转换债券的文书工作更简单。但实际上你使用哪个并不重要。不要花太多时间担心交易条款的细节,特别是当你刚开始天使投资时。这不是你在这个游戏中获胜的方式。当人们谈论一个成功的天使投资人时,他们不是说”他获得了4倍清算优先权。“他们说”他投资了Google。”

这就是你获胜的方式:投资正确的创业公司。这比其他任何事情都重要得多,我担心甚至谈论其他事情会误导你。

机制

天使投资人经常联合交易,这意味着他们联合起来以相同条款投资。在联合体中通常有一个”领投”投资者,他与创业公司谈判条款。但并非总是如此:有时创业公司拼凑一个投资者联合体,这些投资者独立接触他们,创业公司的律师提供文书工作。

开始天使投资的最简单方法是找到一个已经在做这件事的朋友,并试图被纳入他的联合体。然后你所要做的就是开支票。

不过,不要觉得你必须加入联合体。自己做并不难。你可以直接使用Wilson Sonsini和Y Combinator在线发布的标准AA系列文件。你当然应该让律师审查一切。你和创业公司都应该有律师。但律师不必从头创建协议。[2] 当你与创业公司谈判条款时,你关心两个数字:你投入多少钱,以及公司的估值。估值决定你获得多少股票。如果你向一家公司投入5万美元,投资前估值为100万美元,那么投资后估值为105万美元,你获得.05/1.05,即公司股票的4.76%。

如果公司以后筹集更多资金,新投资者将像你一样从所有现有股东手中拿走一部分公司股份。如果在下一轮他们向新投资者出售公司10%的股份,你的4.76%将减少到4.28%。

没关系。稀释是正常的。通常能保护你在未来轮次中不被虐待的是,你和创始人在同一条船上。他们不能在稀释你的同时不稀释自己。而且除非最终净收益,他们不会稀释自己。所以理论上,每一轮进一步的投资让你在公司更有价值的情况下拥有更小的份额,直到几轮后你最终在公司IPO时拥有0.5%的股份,你非常高兴,因为你的5万美元变成了500万美元。[3]

你投资的协议应该有条款让你贡献到未来轮次以维持你的百分比。所以是否被稀释是你的选择。[4] 如果公司做得真的很好,你最终会被稀释,因为最终估值会变得太高,对你来说不值得。

天使投资多少?差异很大,从1万美元到数十万,甚至在极少数情况下达到数百万。上限显然是创始人想要筹集的总金额。下限是总数的5-10%或1万美元,以较大者为准。如今典型的天使轮可能是从5个人筹集15万美元。

估值变化不大。对于天使轮,很少看到低于50万或高于4-5百万的估值。4百万开始是VC的领域。

你如何决定提供什么估值?如果你是由其他人领导的轮次的一部分,那个问题就为你解决了。但如果你自己投资呢?没有真正的答案。没有合理的方法来评估早期创业公司。估值只反映了公司议价能力的强弱。如果他们真的很想要你,要么是因为他们迫切需要钱,要么你是能给他们很大帮助的人,他们会让你以低估值投资。如果他们不需要你,估值会更高。所以猜测。创业公司可能不比你知道这个数字应该是多少。[5]

最终这并不重要。当天使投资人从交易中赚很多钱时,不是因为他们以150万美元而不是300万美元的估值投资。是因为公司真的非常成功。

我不能过分强调这一点。不要纠结于机制或交易条款。你应该花时间思考的是公司是否好。

(同样,创始人们也不应该纠结于交易条款,而应该花时间思考如何使公司变得更好。)

天使投资的第二个不太明显的组成部分是:你预期帮助创业公司多少。像你投资的金额一样,这可能差异很大。如果你不想,你不必做任何事;你可以只是一个资金来源。或者你可以成为公司的事实上的员工。只要确保你和创业公司提前达成一致,关于你将为他们做多少。

真正热门的公司有时对天使有高标准。每个人都想投资的公司实际上在试镜投资者,只接受有名和/或会为他们努力工作的人的钱。但不要觉得你必须投入大量时间,否则你就无法投资任何好的创业公司。创业公司的交易有多热门与其最终表现有多好之间缺乏相关性令人惊讶。许多热门的创业公司最终会失败,而没有人喜欢的许多创业公司最终会成功。而后者如此渴望资金,他们会以低估值接受任何人的钱。[6]

选择赢家

如果能够挑选出那些,那不是很好吗?天使投资对你回报影响最大的部分,选择正确的公司,也是最难的。所以你实际上应该忽略(或者更精确地说,存档,在Gmail意义上)我到目前为止告诉你的一切。你可能需要在某个时候参考它,但它不是中心问题。

中心问题是选择正确的创业公司。“制造人们想要的东西”对创业公司来说,“选择正确的创业公司”对投资者来说。结合起来就是”选择将制造人们想要的东西的创业公司”。

你怎么做到这一点?这不像选择已经在制造广受欢迎东西的创业公司那么简单。到那时对天使来说已经太晚了。VC已经盯上他们了。作为天使,你必须在创业公司成功之前选择它们——要么因为他们制造了伟大的东西但用户还没有意识到,就像早期的Google,要么因为他们距离重大成功还有一到两次迭代,就像Paypal当他们为在PDA之间转账制作软件时。

要成为一个好的天使投资人,你必须是一个好的潜力判断者。这就是归结为的。VC可以是快速的追随者。他们中的大多数不试图预测什么会赢。他们只是试图在某个东西已经在赢时快速注意到。但天使必须能够预测。[7]

这个事实的一个有趣结果是,有很多人从未做过天使投资,却已经是比他们意识到的更好的天使投资人。一个对风险投资机制一无所知但知道成功的创业创始人看起来是什么样的人,实际上比那些精通条款表但认为”黑客”意味着闯入计算机的人远远领先。如果你能够通过同情心来识别好的创业创始人——如果你都以相同的频率共鸣——那么你可能已经是比普通专业VC更好的创业选择者了。[8]

例如,Paul Buchheit在我开始天使投资大约一年后开始,他在选择创业公司方面几乎立即和我一样好。我额外的一年经验与我们共鸣创始人的能力相比是四舍五入的误差。

什么造就了好的创始人?如果有一个词意味着无助的反义词,那就是那个词。糟糕的创始人看起来无助。他们可能聪明,也可能不聪明,但不知何故事件压倒了他们,他们变得沮丧并放弃。好的创始人让事情按他们想要的方式发生。这并不是说他们以预定的方式强迫事情发生。好的创始人对现实有健康的尊重。但他们是不懈地足智多谋的。这是我能想到的最接近无助反义词的词。你想要资助那些不懈足智多谋的人。

注意我们开始谈论事情,现在我们在谈论人。投资者之间有一个持续的争论,哪个更重要,人,还是想法——或者更精确地说,市场。有些人,像Ron Conway,说是人——想法会改变,但人是公司的基础。而Marc Andreessen说他会支持热门市场中一般的创始人而不是糟糕市场中的伟大创始人。[9]

这两个立场并不像看起来那么遥远,因为好人会找到好的市场。即使IBM没有碰巧将PC标准丢在他怀里,Bill Gates可能最终也会相当富有。

我思考了很多偏爱押注人的投资者和偏爱押注市场的投资者之间的分歧。令人惊讶的是它甚至存在。你会期望意见已经收敛得更多了。

但我想我已经弄清楚发生了什么。我认识的最突出的三个偏爱市场的人是Marc、Jawed Karim和Joe Kraus。他们三个在自己的创业公司中,基本上飞入了一个上升热气流:他们遇到了一个增长如此之快的市场,他们所能做的就是跟上它。那种经历很难忽视。而且我认为他们低估了自己:他们回想骑乘那个巨大热气流上升的感觉是多么容易,他们认为”任何人都能做到。“但那不是真的;他们不是普通人。

所以作为天使投资人,我认为你想选择Ron Conway并押注于人。热气流会发生,是的,但没有人能预测它们——甚至创始人也不能,当然作为投资者的你也不能。而且只有好人才能在遇到热气流时骑乘它们。

交易流

当然,如何选择创业公司的问题假定你有创业公司可供选择。你如何找到它们?这是另一个由联合体为你解决的问题。如果你跟随朋友的投资,你就不必寻找创业公司。

问题不是找到创业公司,而是找到一条合理高质量的公司流。传统的方法是通过联系人。如果你是许多投资者和创始人的朋友,他们会把交易发给你。硅谷基本上靠推荐运行。而且一旦你开始成为可靠、有用的投资者,人们会向你推荐很多交易。我当然会。

还有一种更新的方法找到创业公司,那就是参加像Y Combinator的演示日这样的活动,那里一批新创建的创业公司同时向投资者展示。我们每年有两个演示日,一个在三月,一个在八月。这些基本上是大规模推荐。

但像演示日这样的活动只占创业公司和投资者之间匹配的一小部分。个人推荐仍然是最常见的途径。所以如果你想听说新的创业公司,最好的方法是获得大量推荐。

获得大量推荐的最佳方法是投资创业公司。无论你看起来多么聪明和友好,内部人士会不愿意向你推荐,直到你通过做几次投资证明了自己。一些聪明、友好的人原来是不可靠、高维护的投资者。但一旦你证明自己是好的投资者,所谓的交易流将在质量和数量上迅速增加。在极端情况下,对于像Ron Conway这样的人,它基本上与整个硅谷的交易流相同。

所以如果你想认真投资,开始的方法是从你现有的联系自我启动,在你遇到的公司中成为好的投资者,最终你将开始一个连锁反应。好的投资者很少见,即使在硅谷。整个硅谷可能只有几百个认真的天使,然而他们可能是使硅谷成为今天样子的单一最重要的成分。天使是创业形成的限制性试剂。

如果硅谷只有几百个认真的天使,那么通过决定成为一个,你可以单手显著拓宽硅谷创业公司的管道。这有点令人震惊。

做得好

你如何成为好的天使投资人?你需要的第一个东西是果断。当我们与创始人谈论好和坏的投资者时,我们描述好人的方式之一是说”他开支票。“这并不意味着投资者对每个人说是。远非如此。这意味着他快速下定决心,并跟进执行。你可能想,这能有多难?你尝试时会看到。这源于天使投资的本质,决策是困难的。你必须早期猜测,在最有前途的想法仍然看似反直觉的阶段,因为如果它们明显好,VC已经资助它们了。

假设是1998年。你遇到一个由几个研究生创立的创业公司。他们说他们要做互联网搜索。已经有一堆大上市公司在做搜索。这些研究生怎么可能与他们竞争?而且搜索真的重要吗?所有搜索引擎都在试图让人们开始称它们为”门户网站”而不是。你为什么要投资一个由几个无名小辈经营的公司,他们试图在一个自己已经宣布过时的领域与大型、积极的公司竞争?然而这些研究生看起来相当聪明。你怎么办?

当你没有经验时,有一个果断的技巧:将你的投资规模降低到你不会太在意损失的金额。对于每个富人(你可能不应该尝试天使投资,除非你认为自己富有),有一些金额会是虽然令人烦恼但无痛的损失。在你感觉舒适投资之前,不要投资超过那个数额。

例如,如果你有500万美元的可投资资产,损失1.5万美元可能虽然令人烦恼但是无痛的。这不到你净资产的.3%。所以从做3或4个1.5万美元的投资开始。没有什么能像经验一样教你天使投资。把前几个当作教育费用。6万美元比许多研究生课程便宜。而且你获得股权。

真正不酷的是战略性犹豫不决:在试图收集更多关于创业公司轨迹的信息的同时拖延创始人。[10] 总有这样做的诱惑,因为你依据的东西太少了,但你有意识地抵抗它。从长远来看,对你有利的是做好。

成为好的天使投资人的另一个组成部分就是做一个好人。天使投资不是通过欺骗人们赚钱的业务。创业公司创造财富,创造财富不是零和游戏。没有人必须输你才能赢。事实上,如果你虐待你投资的创始人,他们只会变得沮丧,公司会做得更差。而且你的推荐会枯竭。所以我建议做好。

我认识的最成功的天使投资人基本上都是好人。一旦他们投资了一家公司,他们只想帮助它。他们也会帮助他们没有投资的人。当他们帮忙时,他们似乎不记录这些。开销太大了。他们只是试图帮助每个人,并假设好的事情会以某种方式回流给他们。经验上这似乎有效。

注释

[1] 可转换债券可以在特定估值上限,或者在转换时以对最终估值的折扣进行。例如,30%折扣的可转换债券意味着当它转换时,你获得的股票就像你以低30%的估值投资一样。在无法或不想确定估值应该是什么的情况下,这可能很有用。你把它留给下一个投资者。另一方面,许多投资者想知道他们确切得到什么,所以他们只会做有上限的可转换债券。

[2] 从头创建协议的昂贵部分不是写协议,而是以每小时几百美元的价格争论细节。这就是AA系列文书旨在达到中间点的原因。你可以直接从经过大量来回后会达成的妥协开始。

当你资助创业公司时,双方的律师都应该是创业公司专家。不要为此使用普通公司律师。他们的经验不足使他们过度构建:他们会创建庞大、过于复杂的协议,并花时间争论无关的事情。

在硅谷,顶尖的创业公司律师事务所是Wilson Sonsini、Orrick、Fenwick & West、Gunderson Dettmer和Cooley Godward。在波士顿最好的是Goodwin Procter、Wilmer Hale和Foley Hoag。

[3] 你的情况可能有所不同。

[4] 这些反稀释条款也保护你免受诸如后期投资者通过以1美元估值做另一轮来窃取公司之类的伎俩。如果你有能力的创业公司律师为你处理交易,你应该在最初受到保护免受此类伎俩。但以后可能成为问题。如果一家大型VC公司想在你之后投资创业公司,他们可能试图让你取消你的反稀释保护。如果他们这样做,创业公司会施压你同意。他们会告诉你,如果你不这样做,你就会杀死他们与VC的交易。我建议你通过与创始人达成君子协议来解决这个问题:提前同意他们你不会放弃你的反稀释保护。然后由他们尽早告诉VC。

你不想放弃它们的原因是以下情景。VC对资本重组公司,意味着他们以零投资前估值给它额外资金。这消除了现有股东,包括你和创始人。然后他们给创始人大量期权,因为他们需要他们留任,但你什么也得不到。

显然这不是一件好事。这种情况不常发生。知名VC不会仅仅为了从天使那里窃取几个百分点而对公司进行资本重组。但这里有一个连续体。一个不太正直的低级别VC可能受到诱惑这样做来窃取一大块股票。

我不是说你应该总是绝对拒绝放弃你的反稀释保护。一切都是谈判。如果你是一个强大联合体的一部分,你可能能够放弃法律保护而依赖社会保护。例如,如果你投资于由像Ron Conway这样的大天使领导的交易,你受到虐待的保护相当好,因为任何VC在 crossing 他之前都会三思。这种保护是天使喜欢在联合体中投资的原因之一。

[5] 不要投资太多,或者在如此低的估值,以至于你最终获得创业公司过大的份额,除非你确定你的钱将是他们永远需要的最后一笔钱。后期投资者不会投资于创始人没有足够的剩余股权来激励他们的公司。我最近和一个VC交谈,他说他遇到了一家他真正喜欢的公司,但他拒绝了,因为投资者已经拥有超过一半的股份。那些投资者可能认为他们通过获得这家理想公司的这么大份额相当聪明,但实际上他们在搬起石头砸自己的脚。

[6] 在任何时候,我知道至少有3-4位YC校友,我相信他们会取得巨大成功,但他们在经济上靠蒸气运行,因为投资者还不理解他们在做什么。(不,不幸的是,我不能告诉你他们是谁。我不能向我不认识的投资者推荐创业公司。)

[7] 有一些VC可以预测而不是反应。不足为奇,这些是最成功的。

[8] 我这样说有点狡猾,因为普通VC会赔钱。这是我在Y Combinator工作期间学到的关于VC最令人惊讶的事情之一。只有一小部分VC甚至有正回报。其余的存在是为了满足基金经理对风险资本作为一种资产类别的需求。了解这一点解释了我在我们做Viaweb时遇到的一些VC。

[9] VC也通常说他们偏好伟大的市场而不是伟大的人。但他们真正说的是他们想要两者。他们是如此挑剔,以至于他们只考虑伟大的人。所以当他们在乎最重要的是大市场时,他们的意思是这是他们在伟大的人之间选择的方式。

[10] 创始人理所当然地不喜欢那种说他对投资感兴趣但不想领投的投资者。在某些情况下,这是一个可以接受的借口,但通常这意味着”不,但如果你证明是热门交易,我想能够追溯说我说是了。”

如果你足够喜欢一家创业公司想要投资它,那么就投资它。只需使用标准AA系列条款并给他们开支票。

How to Be an Angel Investor

March 2009

(This essay is derived from a talk at AngelConf.)

When we sold our startup in 1998 I thought one day I’d do some angel investing. Seven years later I still hadn’t started. I put it off because it seemed mysterious and complicated. It turns out to be easier than I expected, and also more interesting.

The part I thought was hard, the mechanics of investing, really isn’t. You give a startup money and they give you stock. You’ll probably get either preferred stock, which means stock with extra rights like getting your money back first in a sale, or convertible debt, which means (on paper) you’re lending the company money, and the debt converts to stock at the next sufficiently big funding round. [1]

There are sometimes minor tactical advantages to using one or the other. The paperwork for convertible debt is simpler. But really it doesn’t matter much which you use. Don’t spend much time worrying about the details of deal terms, especially when you first start angel investing. That’s not how you win at this game. When you hear people talking about a successful angel investor, they’re not saying “He got a 4x liquidation preference.” They’re saying “He invested in Google.”

That’s how you win: by investing in the right startups. That is so much more important than anything else that I worry I’m misleading you by even talking about other things.

Mechanics

Angel investors often syndicate deals, which means they join together to invest on the same terms. In a syndicate there is usually a “lead” investor who negotiates the terms with the startup. But not always: sometimes the startup cobbles together a syndicate of investors who approach them independently, and the startup’s lawyer supplies the paperwork.

The easiest way to get started in angel investing is to find a friend who already does it, and try to get included in his syndicates. Then all you have to do is write checks.

Don’t feel like you have to join a syndicate, though. It’s not that hard to do it yourself. You can just use the standard series AA documents Wilson Sonsini and Y Combinator published online. You should of course have your lawyer review everything. Both you and the startup should have lawyers. But the lawyers don’t have to create the agreement from scratch. [2] When you negotiate terms with a startup, there are two numbers you care about: how much money you’re putting in, and the valuation of the company. The valuation determines how much stock you get. If you put 50,000intoacompanyatapremoneyvaluationof50,000 into a company at a pre-money valuation of 1 million, then the post-money valuation is $1.05 million, and you get .05/1.05, or 4.76% of the company’s stock.

If the company raises more money later, the new investor will take a chunk of the company away from all the existing shareholders just as you did. If in the next round they sell 10% of the company to a new investor, your 4.76% will be reduced to 4.28%.

That’s ok. Dilution is normal. What saves you from being mistreated in future rounds, usually, is that you’re in the same boat as the founders. They can’t dilute you without diluting themselves just as much. And they won’t dilute themselves unless they end up net ahead. So in theory, each further round of investment leaves you with a smaller share of an even more valuable company, till after several more rounds you end up with .5% of the company at the point where it IPOs, and you are very happy because your 50,000hasbecome50,000 has become 5 million. [3]

The agreement by which you invest should have provisions that let you contribute to future rounds to maintain your percentage. So it’s your choice whether you get diluted. [4] If the company does really well, you eventually will, because eventually the valuations will get so high it’s not worth it for you.

How much does an angel invest? That varies enormously, from 10,000tohundredsofthousandsorinrarecasesevenmillions.Theupperboundisobviouslythetotalamountthefounderswanttoraise.Thelowerboundis51010,000 to hundreds of thousands or in rare cases even millions. The upper bound is obviously the total amount the founders want to raise. The lower bound is 5-10% of the total or 10,000, whichever is greater. A typical angel round these days might be $150,000 raised from 5 people.

Valuations don’t vary as much. For angel rounds it’s rare to see a valuation lower than half a million or higher than 4 or 5 million. 4 million is starting to be VC territory.

How do you decide what valuation to offer? If you’re part of a round led by someone else, that problem is solved for you. But what if you’re investing by yourself? There’s no real answer. There is no rational way to value an early stage startup. The valuation reflects nothing more than the strength of the company’s bargaining position. If they really want you, either because they desperately need money, or you’re someone who can help them a lot, they’ll let you invest at a low valuation. If they don’t need you, it will be higher. So guess. The startup may not have any more idea what the number should be than you do. [5]

Ultimately it doesn’t matter much. When angels make a lot of money from a deal, it’s not because they invested at a valuation of 1.5millioninsteadof1.5 million instead of 3 million. It’s because the company was really successful.

I can’t emphasize that too much. Don’t get hung up on mechanics or deal terms. What you should spend your time thinking about is whether the company is good.

(Similarly, founders also should not get hung up on deal terms, but should spend their time thinking about how to make the company good.)

There’s a second less obvious component of an angel investment: how much you’re expected to help the startup. Like the amount you invest, this can vary a lot. You don’t have to do anything if you don’t want to; you could simply be a source of money. Or you can become a de facto employee of the company. Just make sure that you and the startup agree in advance about roughly how much you’ll do for them.

Really hot companies sometimes have high standards for angels. The ones everyone wants to invest in practically audition investors, and only take money from people who are famous and/or will work hard for them. But don’t feel like you have to put in a lot of time or you won’t get to invest in any good startups. There is a surprising lack of correlation between how hot a deal a startup is and how well it ends up doing. Lots of hot startups will end up failing, and lots of startups no one likes will end up succeeding. And the latter are so desperate for money that they’ll take it from anyone at a low valuation. [6]

Picking Winners

It would be nice to be able to pick those out, wouldn’t it? The part of angel investing that has most effect on your returns, picking the right companies, is also the hardest. So you should practically ignore (or more precisely, archive, in the Gmail sense) everything I’ve told you so far. You may need to refer to it at some point, but it is not the central issue.

The central issue is picking the right startups. What “Make something people want” is for startups, “Pick the right startups” is for investors. Combined they yield “Pick the startups that will make something people want.”

How do you do that? It’s not as simple as picking startups that are already making something wildly popular. By then it’s too late for angels. VCs will already be onto them. As an angel, you have to pick startups before they’ve got a hit—either because they’ve made something great but users don’t realize it yet, like Google early on, or because they’re still an iteration or two away from the big hit, like Paypal when they were making software for transferring money between PDAs.

To be a good angel investor, you have to be a good judge of potential. That’s what it comes down to. VCs can be fast followers. Most of them don’t try to predict what will win. They just try to notice quickly when something already is winning. But angels have to be able to predict. [7]

One interesting consequence of this fact is that there are a lot of people out there who have never even made an angel investment and yet are already better angel investors than they realize. Someone who doesn’t know the first thing about the mechanics of venture funding but knows what a successful startup founder looks like is actually far ahead of someone who knows termsheets inside out, but thinks “hacker” means someone who breaks into computers. If you can recognize good startup founders by empathizing with them—if you both resonate at the same frequency—then you may already be a better startup picker than the median professional VC. [8]

Paul Buchheit, for example, started angel investing about a year after me, and he was pretty much immediately as good as me at picking startups. My extra year of experience was rounding error compared to our ability to empathize with founders.

What makes a good founder? If there were a word that meant the opposite of hapless, that would be the one. Bad founders seem hapless. They may be smart, or not, but somehow events overwhelm them and they get discouraged and give up. Good founders make things happen the way they want. Which is not to say they force things to happen in a predefined way. Good founders have a healthy respect for reality. But they are relentlessly resourceful. That’s the closest I can get to the opposite of hapless. You want to fund people who are relentlessly resourceful.

Notice we started out talking about things, and now we’re talking about people. There is an ongoing debate between investors which is more important, the people, or the idea—or more precisely, the market. Some, like Ron Conway, say it’s the people—that the idea will change, but the people are the foundation of the company. Whereas Marc Andreessen says he’d back ok founders in a hot market over great founders in a bad one. [9]

These two positions are not so far apart as they seem, because good people find good markets. Bill Gates would probably have ended up pretty rich even if IBM hadn’t happened to drop the PC standard in his lap.

I’ve thought a lot about the disagreement between the investors who prefer to bet on people and those who prefer to bet on markets. It’s kind of surprising that it even exists. You’d expect opinions to have converged more.

But I think I’ve figured out what’s going on. The three most prominent people I know who favor markets are Marc, Jawed Karim, and Joe Kraus. And all three of them, in their own startups, basically flew into a thermal: they hit a market growing so fast that it was all they could do to keep up with it. That kind of experience is hard to ignore. Plus I think they underestimate themselves: they think back to how easy it felt to ride that huge thermal upward, and they think “anyone could have done it.” But that isn’t true; they are not ordinary people.

So as an angel investor I think you want to go with Ron Conway and bet on people. Thermals happen, yes, but no one can predict them—not even the founders, and certainly not you as an investor. And only good people can ride the thermals if they hit them anyway.

Deal Flow

Of course the question of how to choose startups presumes you have startups to choose between. How do you find them? This is yet another problem that gets solved for you by syndicates. If you tag along on a friend’s investments, you don’t have to find startups.

The problem is not finding startups, exactly, but finding a stream of reasonably high quality ones. The traditional way to do this is through contacts. If you’re friends with a lot of investors and founders, they’ll send deals your way. The Valley basically runs on referrals. And once you start to become known as reliable, useful investor, people will refer lots of deals to you. I certainly will.

There’s also a newer way to find startups, which is to come to events like Y Combinator’s Demo Day, where a batch of newly created startups presents to investors all at once. We have two Demo Days a year, one in March and one in August. These are basically mass referrals.

But events like Demo Day only account for a fraction of matches between startups and investors. The personal referral is still the most common route. So if you want to hear about new startups, the best way to do it is to get lots of referrals.

The best way to get lots of referrals is to invest in startups. No matter how smart and nice you seem, insiders will be reluctant to send you referrals until you’ve proven yourself by doing a couple investments. Some smart, nice guys turn out to be flaky, high-maintenance investors. But once you prove yourself as a good investor, the deal flow, as they call it, will increase rapidly in both quality and quantity. At the extreme, for someone like Ron Conway, it is basically identical with the deal flow of the whole Valley.

So if you want to invest seriously, the way to get started is to bootstrap yourself off your existing connections, be a good investor in the startups you meet that way, and eventually you’ll start a chain reaction. Good investors are rare, even in Silicon Valley. There probably aren’t more than a couple hundred serious angels in the whole Valley, and yet they’re probably the single most important ingredient in making the Valley what it is. Angels are the limiting reagent in startup formation.

If there are only a couple hundred serious angels in the Valley, then by deciding to become one you could single-handedly make the pipeline for startups in Silicon Valley significantly wider. That is kind of mind-blowing.

Being Good

How do you be a good angel investor? The first thing you need is to be decisive. When we talk to founders about good and bad investors, one of the ways we describe the good ones is to say “he writes checks.” That doesn’t mean the investor says yes to everyone. Far from it. It means he makes up his mind quickly, and follows through. You may be thinking, how hard could that be? You’ll see when you try it. It follows from the nature of angel investing that the decisions are hard. You have to guess early, at the stage when the most promising ideas still seem counterintuitive, because if they were obviously good, VCs would already have funded them.

Suppose it’s 1998. You come across a startup founded by a couple grad students. They say they’re going to work on Internet search. There are already a bunch of big public companies doing search. How can these grad students possibly compete with them? And does search even matter anyway? All the search engines are trying to get people to start calling them “portals” instead. Why would you want to invest in a startup run by a couple of nobodies who are trying to compete with large, aggressive companies in an area they themselves have declared passe? And yet the grad students seem pretty smart. What do you do?

There’s a hack for being decisive when you’re inexperienced: ratchet down the size of your investment till it’s an amount you wouldn’t care too much about losing. For every rich person (you probably shouldn’t try angel investing unless you think of yourself as rich) there’s some amount that would be painless, though annoying, to lose. Till you feel comfortable investing, don’t invest more than that per startup.

For example, if you have 5millionininvestableassets,itwouldprobablybepainless(thoughannoying)tolose5 million in investable assets, it would probably be painless (though annoying) to lose 15,000. That’s less than .3% of your net worth. So start by making 3 or 4 15,000investments.Nothingwillteachyouaboutangelinvestinglikeexperience.Treatthefirstfewasaneducationalexpense.15,000 investments. Nothing will teach you about angel investing like experience. Treat the first few as an educational expense. 60,000 is less than a lot of graduate programs. Plus you get equity.

What’s really uncool is to be strategically indecisive: to string founders along while trying to gather more information about the startup’s trajectory. [10] There’s always a temptation to do that, because you just have so little to go on, but you have to consciously resist it. In the long term it’s to your advantage to be good.

The other component of being a good angel investor is simply to be a good person. Angel investing is not a business where you make money by screwing people over. Startups create wealth, and creating wealth is not a zero sum game. No one has to lose for you to win. In fact, if you mistreat the founders you invest in, they’ll just get demoralized and the company will do worse. Plus your referrals will dry up. So I recommend being good.

The most successful angel investors I know are all basically good people. Once they invest in a company, all they want to do is help it. And they’ll help people they haven’t invested in too. When they do favors they don’t seem to keep track of them. It’s too much overhead. They just try to help everyone, and assume good things will flow back to them somehow. Empirically that seems to work.

Notes

[1] Convertible debt can be either capped at a particular valuation, or can be done at a discount to whatever the valuation turns out to be when it converts. E.g. convertible debt at a discount of 30% means when it converts you get stock as if you’d invested at a 30% lower valuation. That can be useful in cases where you can’t or don’t want to figure out what the valuation should be. You leave it to the next investor. On the other hand, a lot of investors want to know exactly what they’re getting, so they will only do convertible debt with a cap.

[2] The expensive part of creating an agreement from scratch is not writing the agreement, but bickering at several hundred dollars an hour over the details. That’s why the series AA paperwork aims at a middle ground. You can just start from the compromise you’d have reached after lots of back and forth.

When you fund a startup, both your lawyers should be specialists in startups. Do not use ordinary corporate lawyers for this. Their inexperience makes them overbuild: they’ll create huge, overcomplicated agreements, and spend hours arguing over irrelevant things.

In the Valley, the top startup law firms are Wilson Sonsini, Orrick, Fenwick & West, Gunderson Dettmer, and Cooley Godward. In Boston the best are Goodwin Procter, Wilmer Hale, and Foley Hoag.

[3] Your mileage may vary.

[4] These anti-dilution provisions also protect you against tricks like a later investor trying to steal the company by doing another round that values the company at $1. If you have a competent startup lawyer handle the deal for you, you should be protected against such tricks initially. But it could become a problem later. If a big VC firm wants to invest in the startup after you, they may try to make you take out your anti-dilution protections. And if they do the startup will be pressuring you to agree. They’ll tell you that if you don’t, you’re going to kill their deal with the VC. I recommend you solve this problem by having a gentlemen’s agreement with the founders: agree with them in advance that you’re not going to give up your anti-dilution protections. Then it’s up to them to tell VCs early on.

The reason you don’t want to give them up is the following scenario. The VCs recapitalize the company, meaning they give it additional funding at a pre-money valuation of zero. This wipes out the existing shareholders, including both you and the founders. They then grant the founders lots of options, because they need them to stay around, but you get nothing.

Obviously this is not a nice thing to do. It doesn’t happen often. Brand-name VCs wouldn’t recapitalize a company just to steal a few percent from an angel. But there’s a continuum here. A less upstanding, lower-tier VC might be tempted to do it to steal a big chunk of stock.

I’m not saying you should always absolutely refuse to give up your anti-dilution protections. Everything is a negotiation. If you’re part of a powerful syndicate, you might be able to give up legal protections and rely on social ones. If you invest in a deal led by a big angel like Ron Conway, for example, you’re pretty well protected against being mistreated, because any VC would think twice before crossing him. This kind of protection is one of the reasons angels like to invest in syndicates.

[5] Don’t invest so much, or at such a low valuation, that you end up with an excessively large share of a startup, unless you’re sure your money will be the last they ever need. Later stage investors won’t invest in a company if the founders don’t have enough equity left to motivate them. I talked to a VC recently who said he’d met with a company he really liked, but he turned them down because investors already owned more than half of it. Those investors probably thought they’d been pretty clever by getting such a large chunk of this desirable company, but in fact they were shooting themselves in the foot.

[6] At any given time I know of at least 3 or 4 YC alumni who I believe will be big successes but who are running on vapor, financially, because investors don’t yet get what they’re doing. (And no, unfortunately, I can’t tell you who they are. I can’t refer a startup to an investor I don’t know.)

[7] There are some VCs who can predict instead of reacting. Not surprisingly, these are the most successful ones.

[8] It’s somewhat sneaky of me to put it this way, because the median VC loses money. That’s one of the most surprising things I’ve learned about VC while working on Y Combinator. Only a fraction of VCs even have positive returns. The rest exist to satisfy demand among fund managers for venture capital as an asset class. Learning this explained a lot about some of the VCs I encountered when we were working on Viaweb.

[9] VCs also generally say they prefer great markets to great people. But what they’re really saying is they want both. They’re so selective that they only even consider great people. So when they say they care above all about big markets, they mean that’s how they choose between great people.

[10] Founders rightly dislike the sort of investor who says he’s interested in investing but doesn’t want to lead. There are circumstances where this is an acceptable excuse, but more often than not what it means is “No, but if you turn out to be a hot deal, I want to be able to claim retroactively I said yes.”

If you like a startup enough to invest in it, then invest in it. Just use the standard series AA terms and write them a check.