这是哪个微软的Altair Basic？
这是哪个微软的Altair Basic？
2015年2月
如果你想了解初创公司，你可以尝试的最有价值的练习之一是看看最成功的公司，并解释为什么它们在刚推出时并不像看起来那么糟糕。因为实际上它们在刚开始时看起来都很糟糕。不仅仅是小，而是糟糕。不仅仅是登上大山的第一步。更像是踏入沼泽的第一步。
Altair的Basic解释器？这怎么可能成长为一家大公司？人们在陌生人的公寓里睡气垫床？一个让大学生互相窥探的网站？一个使用电视作为显示器的爱好者用的弱小单板计算机？一个新的搜索引擎，当时已经有大约10个，而且它们都在试图淡化搜索？这些想法不仅看起来小。它们看起来是错的。它们是那种你不仅不能忽视，而且会嘲笑的想法。
通常创始人自己也不知道为什么他们的想法有前途。他们被本能吸引到这些想法，因为他们生活在未来，并且感觉到缺少了什么。但他们无法用语言准确表达他们的丑小鸭将如何成长为美丽的大天鹅。
大多数人在听到一个听起来糟糕的新初创公司想法时的第一反应是取笑它。即使是很多应该更了解情况的人也是如此。
当我遇到一个想法听起来糟糕的初创公司时，我会问”这是哪个微软的Altair Basic？“现在这是一个谜题，解决它的责任在我身上。有时我想不出答案，特别是当想法是虚构的时候。但 remarkable 的是，经常确实有答案。通常这是创始人自己还没有看到的答案。
有趣的是，有时有多个答案。几天前我和一家初创公司交谈，它可能成长为3个不同的微软。它们的大小可能会有数量级的差异。但你永远无法预测一个微软会有多大，所以在那种情况下，我鼓励创始人遵循哪条对他们来说最立即令人兴奋的道路。他们的本能让他们走到了这一步。为什么现在停止？
What Microsoft Is this the Altair Basic of?
February 2015
One of the most valuable exercises you can try if you want to understand startups is to look at the most successful companies and explain why they were not as lame as they seemed when they first launched. Because they practically all seemed lame at first. Not just small, lame. Not just the first step up a big mountain. More like the first step into a swamp.
A Basic interpreter for the Altair? How could that ever grow into a giant company? People sleeping on airbeds in strangers’ apartments? A web site for college students to stalk one another? A wimpy little single-board computer for hobbyists that used a TV as a monitor? A new search engine, when there were already about 10, and they were all trying to de-emphasize search? These ideas didn’t just seem small. They seemed wrong. They were the kind of ideas you could not merely ignore, but ridicule.
Often the founders themselves didn’t know why their ideas were promising. They were attracted to these ideas by instinct, because they were living in the future and they sensed that something was missing. But they could not have put into words exactly how their ugly ducklings were going to grow into big, beautiful swans.
Most people’s first impulse when they hear about a lame-sounding new startup idea is to make fun of it. Even a lot of people who should know better.
When I encounter a startup with a lame-sounding idea, I ask “What Microsoft is this the Altair Basic of?” Now it’s a puzzle, and the burden is on me to solve it. Sometimes I can’t think of an answer, especially when the idea is a made-up one. But it’s remarkable how often there does turn out to be an answer. Often it’s one the founders themselves hadn’t seen yet.
Intriguingly, there are sometimes multiple answers. I talked to a startup a few days ago that could grow into 3 distinct Microsofts. They’d probably vary in size by orders of magnitude. But you can never predict how big a Microsoft is going to be, so in cases like that I encourage founders to follow whichever path is most immediately exciting to them. Their instincts got them this far. Why stop now?