成瘾性

Paul Graham 2010-07-01

成瘾性

成瘾性的加速 2010年7月

烈酒、香烟、海洛因和可卡因的共同点是,它们都是成瘾性较低的前身物质的更浓缩形式。我们描述为成瘾性的大多数(如果不是全部)事物都是如此。可怕的是,创造它们的过程正在加速。

我们不想阻止它。这是治愈疾病的同一过程:技术进步。技术进步意味着让事物做更多我们想要的事情。当我们想要的事物是我们想要想要的事物时,我们认为技术进步是好的。如果某种新技术使太阳能电池的效率提高x%,那似乎绝对是更好的。当进步浓缩了我们不想要想要的东西——当它将鸦片变成海洛因时——它似乎变坏了。但这是同一过程在起作用。

没有人怀疑这个过程正在加速,这意味着越来越多我们喜欢的事物将被变成我们过于喜欢的事物。

据我所知,没有词来形容我们过于喜欢的事物。最接近的是”addictive”(成瘾的)的口语意义。在我的一生中,这种用法变得越来越普遍。原因很清楚:我们需要它的事物越来越多。在极端的一端是可卡因和冰毒。食物通过工厂化农业和食品加工创新的结合,变成了具有更直接冲击力的东西,你可以在美国的任何城镇看到结果。跳棋和纸牌已经被《魔兽世界》和《FarmVille》取代。电视变得更加引人入胜,即便如此,它也无法与Facebook竞争。

现在的世界比40年前更容易让人上瘾。除非产生这些事物的技术进步形式受到与技术进步一般不同的法律约束,否则在未来40年里,世界将比过去40年变得更加容易让人上瘾。

未来40年将给我们带来一些美妙的事物。我并不是暗示它们都应该被避免。酒精是一种危险的药物,但我宁愿生活在一个有葡萄酒的世界,而不是没有葡萄酒的世界。大多数人可以与酒精共存;但你必须小心。更多我们喜欢的事物将意味着更多我们必须小心的事物。

不幸的是,大多数人都不会。这意味着随着世界变得更加容易让人上瘾,一个人可以过正常生活的两种意义将被进一步分开。“正常”的一种意义是统计上的正常:其他人都做的事情。另一种意义是当我们谈论机械的正常运行范围时的意义:效果最好的。

这两种意义已经相距甚远。现在,任何试图好好生活的人在美国大部分地区都会显得异常节欲。这种现象只会变得更加明显。从现在开始,你可以把它作为一个经验法则:如果人们不认为你很奇怪,那么你生活得很糟糕。

社会最终会对新的成瘾事物产生抗体。我在香烟身上看到了这种情况的发生。当香烟首次出现时,它们的传播方式就像传染病在以前隔离的人群中传播一样。吸烟迅速成为一种(统计上的)正常事物。到处都有烟灰缸。我还是孩子的时候,我们家里有烟灰缸,尽管我父母都不吸烟。你必须为客人准备。

随着关于吸烟危险的知识传播,习俗改变了。在过去20年里,吸烟已经从看起来完全正常的事物变成了一种相当肮脏的习惯:从电影明星在宣传照中做的事情,变成了成瘾者小团体在办公楼门外做的事情。当然,很多变化是由于立法,但如果习俗没有改变,立法也不可能发生。

然而,这花了一段时间——大约100年。除非社会抗体的进化速度能够加快,以匹配技术进步抛弃新的成瘾事物的加速速度,否则我们将越来越无法依赖习俗来保护我们。

除非我们想成为每种新成瘾的煤矿中的金丝雀——那些悲惨的例子成为未来一代人教训的人——否则我们将必须自己弄清楚要避免什么以及如何避免。怀疑一切新事物实际上将成为一个合理的策略(或更合理的策略)。

事实上,即使那样也不够。我们不仅要担心新事物,还要担心现有事物变得更加容易让人上瘾。这就是咬到我的东西。我避免了大多数成瘾,但互联网让我上瘾了,因为在我使用它的过程中它变得让人上瘾了。

我认识的大多数人都有互联网成瘾问题。我们都在努力找出自己摆脱它的习俗。这就是为什么我没有iPhone的原因;我最不想要的就是互联网跟随我进入世界。

我最新的技巧是长途徒步旅行。我曾经认为跑步比徒步是更好的锻炼形式,因为它花的时间更少。现在徒步旅行的缓慢性似乎成了一个优势,因为我在小径上花的时间越长,我有不受干扰的思考时间就越长。

听起来很古怪,不是吗?当你试图解决没有习俗指导的问题时,总是会这样。也许我不能诉诸奥卡姆剃刀;也许我只是古怪。但如果我对成瘾性加速的看法是正确的,那么这种孤独的挣扎来避免它的方式将 increasingly 成为任何想要完成任务的人的命运。我们将越来越多地被我们说不的事情所定义。

注释

[1] 你能将技术进步限制在你想要的领域吗?只能在有限范围内,而不成为警察国家。即使那样,你的限制也会产生不良副作用。“好”和”坏”的技术进步没有明显区分,所以你会发现你不能在不减缓前者的同时减缓后者。而且,无论如何,正如禁酒令和”毒品战争”所显示的,禁令往往弊大于利。

[2] 技术一直在加速。按照旧石器时代的标准,技术在新石器时代以惊人的速度发展。

[3] 除非我们大规模生产社会习俗。我怀疑最近美国福音派基督教的复兴部分是对毒品的反应。在绝望中,人们伸手拿大锤;如果他们的孩子不听他们的话,也许他们会听上帝的。但那种解决方案比让孩子对毒品说不有更广泛的后果。你最终也对科学说不。我担心我们可能正在走向一个未来,只有少数人自己规划穿越禁区的行程,而其他人预订包价旅行。或者更糟的是,由政府为他们预订。

[4] 人们通常用”拖延”这个词来描述他们在互联网上做什么。在我看来,将正在发生的事情仅仅描述为不工作太温和了。当有人喝醉而不是工作时,我们不会称之为拖延。

[5] 几个人告诉我他们喜欢iPad,因为它让他们能将互联网带到笔记本电脑太显眼的情况下。换句话说,它是一个扁酒瓶。(当然,iPhone也是如此,但这个优势不那么明显,因为它读起来像电话,大家都习惯了。)

感谢Sam Altman、Patrick Collison、Jessica Livingston和Robert Morris阅读本文草稿。

Addiction

The Acceleration of Addictiveness July 2010

What hard liquor, cigarettes, heroin, and crack have in common is that they’re all more concentrated forms of less addictive predecessors. Most if not all the things we describe as addictive are. And the scary thing is, the process that created them is accelerating.

We wouldn’t want to stop it. It’s the same process that cures diseases: technological progress. Technological progress means making things do more of what we want. When the thing we want is something we want to want, we consider technological progress good. If some new technique makes solar cells x% more efficient, that seems strictly better. When progress concentrates something we don’t want to want — when it transforms opium into heroin — it seems bad. But it’s the same process at work.

No one doubts this process is accelerating, which means increasing numbers of things we like will be transformed into things we like too much.

As far as I know there’s no word for something we like too much. The closest is the colloquial sense of “addictive.” That usage has become increasingly common during my lifetime. And it’s clear why: there are an increasing number of things we need it for. At the extreme end of the spectrum are crack and meth. Food has been transformed by a combination of factory farming and innovations in food processing into something with way more immediate bang for the buck, and you can see the results in any town in America. Checkers and solitaire have been replaced by World of Warcraft and FarmVille. TV has become much more engaging, and even so it can’t compete with Facebook.

The world is more addictive than it was 40 years ago. And unless the forms of technological progress that produced these things are subject to different laws than technological progress in general, the world will get more addictive in the next 40 years than it did in the last 40.

The next 40 years will bring us some wonderful things. I don’t mean to imply they’re all to be avoided. Alcohol is a dangerous drug, but I’d rather live in a world with wine than one without. Most people can coexist with alcohol; but you have to be careful. More things we like will mean more things we have to be careful about.

Most people won’t, unfortunately. Which means that as the world becomes more addictive, the two senses in which one can live a normal life will be driven ever further apart. One sense of “normal” is statistically normal: what everyone else does. The other is the sense we mean when we talk about the normal operating range of a piece of machinery: what works best.

These two senses are already quite far apart. Already someone trying to live well would seem eccentrically abstemious in most of the US. That phenomenon is only going to become more pronounced. You can probably take it as a rule of thumb from now on that if people don’t think you’re weird, you’re living badly.

Societies eventually develop antibodies to addictive new things. I’ve seen that happen with cigarettes. When cigarettes first appeared, they spread the way an infectious disease spreads through a previously isolated population. Smoking rapidly became a (statistically) normal thing. There were ashtrays everywhere. We had ashtrays in our house when I was a kid, even though neither of my parents smoked. You had to for guests.

As knowledge spread about the dangers of smoking, customs changed. In the last 20 years, smoking has been transformed from something that seemed totally normal into a rather seedy habit: from something movie stars did in publicity shots to something small huddles of addicts do outside the doors of office buildings. A lot of the change was due to legislation, of course, but the legislation couldn’t have happened if customs hadn’t already changed.

It took a while though—on the order of 100 years. And unless the rate at which social antibodies evolve can increase to match the accelerating rate at which technological progress throws off new addictions, we’ll be increasingly unable to rely on customs to protect us.

Unless we want to be canaries in the coal mine of each new addiction—the people whose sad example becomes a lesson to future generations—we’ll have to figure out for ourselves what to avoid and how. It will actually become a reasonable strategy (or a more reasonable strategy) to suspect everything new.

In fact, even that won’t be enough. We’ll have to worry not just about new things, but also about existing things becoming more addictive. That’s what bit me. I’ve avoided most addictions, but the Internet got me because it became addictive while I was using it.

Most people I know have problems with Internet addiction. We’re all trying to figure out our own customs for getting free of it. That’s why I don’t have an iPhone, for example; the last thing I want is for the Internet to follow me out into the world.

My latest trick is taking long hikes. I used to think running was a better form of exercise than hiking because it took less time. Now the slowness of hiking seems an advantage, because the longer I spend on the trail, the longer I have to think without interruption.

Sounds pretty eccentric, doesn’t it? It always will when you’re trying to solve problems where there are no customs yet to guide you. Maybe I can’t plead Occam’s razor; maybe I’m simply eccentric. But if I’m right about the acceleration of addictiveness, then this kind of lonely squirming to avoid it will increasingly be the fate of anyone who wants to get things done. We’ll increasingly be defined by what we say no to.

Notes

[1] Could you restrict technological progress to areas where you wanted it? Only in a limited way, without becoming a police state. And even then your restrictions would have undesirable side effects. “Good” and “bad” technological progress aren’t sharply differentiated, so you’d find you couldn’t slow the latter without also slowing the former. And in any case, as Prohibition and the “war on drugs” show, bans often do more harm than good.

[2] Technology has always been accelerating. By Paleolithic standards, technology evolved at a blistering pace in the Neolithic period.

[3] Unless we mass produce social customs. I suspect the recent resurgence of evangelical Christianity in the US is partly a reaction to drugs. In desperation people reach for the sledgehammer; if their kids won’t listen to them, maybe they’ll listen to God. But that solution has broader consequences than just getting kids to say no to drugs. You end up saying no to science as well. I worry we may be heading for a future in which only a few people plot their own itinerary through no-land, while everyone else books a package tour. Or worse still, has one booked for them by the government.

[4] People commonly use the word “procrastination” to describe what they do on the Internet. It seems to me too mild to describe what’s happening as merely not-doing-work. We don’t call it procrastination when someone gets drunk instead of working.

[5] Several people have told me they like the iPad because it lets them bring the Internet into situations where a laptop would be too conspicuous. In other words, it’s a hip flask. (This is true of the iPhone too, of course, but this advantage isn’t as obvious because it reads as a phone, and everyone’s used to those.)

Thanks to Sam Altman, Patrick Collison, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this.